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 hello everyone welcome to bald guy money I am bald guy and with the recent rise of Bitcoin and other crypto since Donald Trump's presidential election win I'm seeing a lot of people in the precious metals Community talking about how crypto is stealing momentum and investors away from gold and silver and on the surface it can certainly seem that way with Gold Flat over the past month silver down 7% and Bitcoin up a while in 46% that said my position on this is a bit more nuanced as I see this as a

movement towards a handful of risk on trades that the Trump campaign was associated with and away from some of the riskof trades as investors price out some of the war rated geopolitical risk that has undoubtedly fueled at least a part of Gold's rise over the past year which is something I mentioned in a video two weeks ago and the best evidence I can offer up to support that claim is the fact that Tesla which is obviously associated with CEO Elon Musk who is associated with the Trump campaign has risen even more than

Bitcoin since the presidential election and when we paare that with the recent reversal in the price of gold as geopolitical tensions seem to be flaring up again gold is coming back up with them these data points seem to suggest that what we saw was a temporary roll over of profits from medals into once again those risk onpls associated with the Trump campaign and I think this becomes even more evident when we consider the most risk onplay around which is NVIDIA a company that was not associated with the Trump campaign is

down more than gold over the past month at negative 0.7% meaning some Traders also took profits out of that trade and parked them into things like Tesla and Bitcoin driven by pure speculation on what they think will happen as a result of the next 4 years now with all this going on there is serious talk from both the precious metals and the crypto camps about how one is going to absorb the other so in this video I want to talk about what will happen to the prices of gold and silver in a market crash

scenario where a flight away from risk on investing sends crypto to zero and diverts all of that money to precious metals and on the flip side of that I want to be neutral and present what would happen the other way around if the market went on a long-term risk on run and Bitcoin absorbed investor money from gold once I've covered that I want to be very honest with you all about what I think the odds of either of these scenarios happening are and I will finish this video by answering a viewer

question on how to sell the top in precious metals and cash in on gold and silver now just before we Dive In I want to tell you all that Summit Metals has begun its Black Friday sale and that doesn't mean just because Metals prices are headed back up and could rally into December that you should go and fomo into a bunch of gold and silver but for those of you located in the USA who are planning a purchase it means you can get great prices on products that are verified as authentic and delivered to

you quickly and safely thanks to Summit Metals customer service team so whether you're buying something for yourself or as a holiday gift for the real money Enthusiast on your list or maybe you just want to support a dealer that I am directly involved with please check out www.summit.com and give them a chance at earning your business today okay so jumping into it we've got a lot of people talking about gold eating Bitcoin in the future in a risk-off environment and people saying the same things about

Bitcoin eating gold as we move towards a digital future and I will share my thoughts on that in a moment but looking purely at the numbers I want to look purely at the numbers right now what everyone watching this has to understand is that if gold and silver absorb crypto or gold absorbs Bitcoin more specifically it is not absorbing $100,000 per coin which would push gold to $100,000 per ounce and I know that for some of you who understand this well that may sound funny but there are people out there who think this is how

it works and what I I want to say here is what gold is actually absorbing if that happens is the market cap for Bitcoin which is just shy of $2 trillion today and in that scenario you can see that if Gold's more than $18 trillion market cap absorbs bitcoin's nearly $2 trillion market cap it barely moves the needle for gold pushing it up just above $3,000 an ounce which is a level I think it will reach in 2025 whether Bitcoin goes to zero or to $200,000 and I think this first data point puts things in perspective for us

of really how just small an influence Bitcoin is and has been on the price of gold and it supports my argument that what we've seen recently is more of a speculative play between assets that have run up in price already in 2024 versus Trump campaign Associated risk on assets now to take this one step further if we look at the entire market cap of crypto as an asset class today we're talking about a total of 336 trillion us and that's according to coin market cap and if gold and silver

were to absorb all of that money at a current gold to Silver ratio of about 86 that would push gold to $3,175 per ounce and silver to $366 per ounce so once again these are not earth shattering numbers we're talking about here and they are well within Striking Distance for both gold and silver as central banks continue to stock up on gold to diversify themselves away from the US dollar and silver continues to be an important ingredient in industry and Technology on the backdrop of Supply deficits so in short

this exercise doesn't excite me much as a precious metal stacker and the real reason we hear so much about this top topic is not because metal stackers need this to happen in order to attain higher prices but because it's very much the Crypt bro wet dream that it happens the other way around and since they talk about Bitcoin being digital gold which is an argument I am not entirely against but again more on that in a moment I think it makes most sense for us to look at what would happen if in fact Bitcoin

absorbed Gold's market cap and what would happen would be a spectacular rise in the price of a single Bitcoin from about $100,000 today all the way up to nearly $1 million and that is ultimately what the Bitcoin maximalists want to see but something that simply will not happen and let me explain why this is a graph that shows us how gold is being used and we can do the same thing for silver and what both graphs will show us is that a significant amount of gold and silver are used for purposes other than

investing and that's because of their physical nature so even if Bitcoin Rises at the expense of gold we have to ask ourselves the question does that mean we won't use gold in jewelry or gold in technology anymore well I personally doubt that in fact I remember during the big 2021 Crypt bull market a lot of the Dubai Crypt Bros that I knew were buying gold watches and gold chains which more than negates their arguments of gold having no value in being just a yellow Shiny Rock and that also means even in

the worst case scenario for Metals only a portion of the investment money which is a portion of a portion disappears with probable increases in demand for gold jewelry offsetting a part of that drop and considering the fact that only about 30% of silver consumption is for investment purposes the rest obviously being used for industry which is hungry for the metal it's unlikely any drops in price as a result of crypto would be long live now on the flip side of that when we talk about all crypto going to

zero and I know a lot of people watching this video fantasize about that what a lot of people fail to recognize is the fact that a lot of these projects are not the same thing as Bitcoin many of them are literally what are called unregistered Securities so they're basically stocks that don't have to follow the same rules as publicly traded companies and what they have are projects that have real technological applications and the best examples I can give of this are ethereum and Solana and

I'm certain that most of you watching this video have heard of ethereum before but what ethereum and Solana are are they are blockchains that are used to facilitate decentralized Financial transactions and without getting into the weeds of it and boring you all to death think of these things as Microsoft Apple PayPal and JP Morgan rolled all into one big thing yes I agree there are some silly cryptos out there and the fact that Dogecoin is the seventh largest crypto as you can see on this list here makes it hard for many people

to treat this asset class very seriously I get that but there are really interesting things happening within crypto related to artificial intelligence and finance but it takes some digging into it to understand it all now flipping back to the top 10 asset list what I want to say before we get to the viewer question is this it's tempting to see Bitcoin as a competitor to gold and silver because that's the narrative a lot of Bitcoin holders have adopted but as things stand now and I say this as someone who without shame

owns Bitcoin and I'm admitting it to you all it is a speculative digital store of value Asset and it competes more with things like Nvidia than it does with gold and the odds of it going to zero Bitcoin that is or at least near to zero because there's always going to be some psycho who will never sell are much higher than they are for gold and silver as long as there are practical things we can use physical gold and silver for that give them value under any circumstance and that's something that

Bitcoin seriously lacks now you may be asking me so why do you even bother owning both if you're admitting gold and silver are better because they're physical well when you have a large Metals position and I know some of you watching this video do the mentality shifts from getting protected in metals to staying protected and hedging a large Metals portfolio and instead of holding an open short position against my medals as a hedge because I won't do that by the way I'm not I'm not going to short

medals I own a little Bitcoin because any money I lose on the Bitcoin if if it goes to zero will be more than gained in gold and silver as a result of whatever thing it is that happened in the market to get people to run away from risk on assets and if metals grind up at a slower uh Pace in a risk on environment then I own the riskiest asset of them all which will mean that I benefit from the gains in such an environment so basically I've rigged the game for myself so I win no matter what and in

the event that Bitcoin does all of these amazing things in a future that is undeniably going to be more digital I'm not going to look like this guy Nobel prizewinning Economist in New York Times contributor Paul Krugman who famously claimed the internet will be no more significant in Innovation than the fax machine and for full disclosure I love to troll keyy and economists but it's all in good fun because I was educated in the Austrian School of Economics so that's just a blurb for my economic

nerds out there now with that covered it's time to get to this video's viewer question and remember you can leave your questions in the comments section of every single video I do I pick one question to be answered each week right here on the channel and you never know your question may be the next one I answer and this week's question comes from Atlantis and he wants to know at what price point it makes sense to sell gold and silver and I get questions like this from time to time and what's important

to remember is is that there is no one-size fits-all approach for everyone because there are many different reasons people enter and exit the physical precious metals market now let me start by saying if you've entered precious metals for short-term capital gains so just to buy it and make a quick profit because you think it's going to go up then I would personally Focus my efforts on trading the ETFs versus buying physical metals that come with a premium because and this is simply my point of

view Metals physical metals that is represent long-term wealth and are a protection mechanism against $36 trillion in US debt more than $100 trillion in global national debt the guarantee that more money will be printed to service these debts Fiat money that is and the very real possibility that the system itself May face serious troubles and have to be reshaped in the future as a consequence of the lack of responsibility it's being managed with today the physical metals are a way of protecting me from all of

those things so when I need to sell some metals I need to have a darn good reason to do it and here is a list of what I think are good reasons and bad reasons to sell precious metals and those of you who read my article on this topic at Summit metals.com will recognize this list and I'm not going to read off every point but I will say that the good reasons for selling are all related to wealth and emergency planning whether it's supplementing retirement covering an emergency expense or conversion to

another asset all of these points mean the medals were used as real money as they were intended to be used whereas the bad reasons for selling tell me that little planning if any was done and most likely you you used Metals as a way to gamble in which case this is not a Channel about gambling this is a channel about building and protecting wealth over long periods of time so with that little disclaimer out of the way we can start answering this question because it's all about timing the sale to hit

the highest level and depending on your circumstances and your reasons for selling gold and silver that may change and to keep things as pragmatic as possible I cover this for retirees people looking to decrease their exposure to Metals after a big price runup and those looking to convert their metals to another asset because timing the sale doesn't apply as much to people covering emergency expenses or paying down their debt now for retirees if your plan was to protect the value of your savings with gold and silver and

supplement your income over time with it then I don't think there's a particularly compelling price to cash out at because we just never know where inflation or other asset classes are going and I'll use this image as a reminder to everyone that people who were relying solely on the stock market from 2000 to 2012 did not have a great 13 years which for some of those people may have been the entirety of their retirement but for those who had part of their retirement tucked away in medals

there were plenty of Temptations to sell it all on the way up as silver went from $5 an ounce to $12 an ounce to $20 an ounce and up to an average price of $31.15 an ounce in 2012 during which period gold went from just below $300 an ounce all the way up to near nearly $1,700 an ounce so coming back to this image here with gold now making a run at $3,000 an ounce and silver back above $30 an ounce my Approach is to sell Metals in the exact same way I buy them in small increments over time to get

exposure to the average price and that's called DCA or dollar cost averaging for those of you who are not familiar with the term now I understand that doesn't satisfy everyone I'm sure that there are some people out there who are looking to get the best deal on silver and gold right now or at some point near in the future particularly those of you who are H happy having only a certain percentage of your portfolio in precious metals and I can relate to that because I belong to that group and I'm a bit shy of my 10%

Target right now and for those of you who are curious what my total portfolio breakdown looks like I shared it on patreon on Friday but 10% precious metals as a as a percentage of my net worth is my goal that is where I am comfortable at this age that I'm at right now and I'll likely scale that up as time goes by anyhow for some of you who may have been a bit heavier maybe 20% or higher in Precious Metals before the recent runup in price that 20% may be significantly higher than what you

intended it to be and you may want to sell a little bit of your metals to rebalance your portfolio and that's perfectly okay now if the dollar cost average method of scaling out over time doesn't appeal to you you can try to play the seasonality game and this here is a chart that shows gold price performance from 1975 to 2020 and I will try to get the data updated soon to go out to 2024 but what this data shows us is a clear tendency for relative Metals price strength in the second half of the Year

moving into the new year with the best individual months to sell being September and January is those are the months that experience the highest rise in metals prices now of course there is no guarantee this will work every time but if you have some time on your hands let's say 12 months you can look for price run-ups in these rough time frames and maybe even plan to buy some back with excess cash in week or months and to be clear that's not advice that's just an observation now the final way to

play this and this is also an element of My overall Financial strategy is to Benchmark versus different asset classes and the best way I can explain this to everyone watching this video is with the gold to Silver ratio so this is an image I shared in a video two weeks ago and it explains how Metals prices usually top out when the gold to Silver ratio takes a sudden dip below 50 and I have added an additional image from my free gold to Silver ratio article at Summit metal .c that that covers the topic in a bit

deeper detail but for people unfamiliar with this what the gold to Silver ratio measures is how many ounces of silver you can buy with one ounce of gold and the idea is the higher that number goes you want to trade gold for silver because when the number goes back down you can trade your silver to get more gold back and the article explains it very well so again I'll leave the link to that below if you want to check it out but what I am trying to say is these ratios don't only apply to Gold and

Silver and moving on to these two tables here as you can see I track these ratios on a regular basis my regular viewers will know that I touch on them here from time to time on the YouTube channel and why I do this is because in an environment that is increasingly inflationary sometimes drops in price of an asset or asset class as is the case with median us home prices right now can get masked and blurred until you look at them priced in real money so in gold and silver so by setting a baseline using

historic numbers I am able to recognize where there are deals to be had on the market and potentially convert some of my gold and silver into those other assets and of course you have to take your particular tax situation into account while doing that but that's not something I can go very deep in here on the channel as I have tens of thousands of viewers from all around the world each one with a different tax circumstance but as an overarching strategy this works so Atlantis I'm coming back to you since you're the one

who asked the question I can't give you an exact price most importantly because I don't know your circumstances so instead of giving you the fish to use an old metaphor the best I can do is Show You by 2033 targets once again say that you can watch out for these prices of course but also teach you how to do the fishing yourself as it applies to your specific situation and let you handle the rest by yourself so with that question answered please let me know what you thought about this video what

you agreed with what you didn't agree with leave me a question in the comments if you want to if you have a question for me and please don't forget to share this with someone you think needs to hear this message and don't forget to subscribe to the Channel please as a final reminder before I sign off the the Black Friday sale at Summit medals is going on right now so if you're planning purchases and staying on a schedule to build your wealth and you want to support what I am doing here at the same

time please give Summit medals a shot I am certain you will not regret it and as I say at the end of all of my videos please take care of yourselves and take care of each other I'm wishing you all a fantastic day ahead see you in the next video goodbye e