gold news

 hey everyone welcome to bald guy money I am bald guy and with November in the books I think it's a good time to take stock of where we're at with gold and silver so we can get a better sense of what awaits us as we finish 2024 and move into 2025 so to start looking at the past 12 months silver has had five winning months so less than half of the months but is still up 26% over that time despite having less than half of those months as winners gold on the other hand has had nine winning months

in the last 12 and is up 32% which is the same as the S&P 500 over that period which has really been on a roll and has made gains in 10 of the past 12 months and I have to admit that the strength we've seen in stocks in 2024 has come as a bit of a surprise to me as I had expected the price of the S&P 500 when priced in gold and silver to move towards 2020 levels with us eventually reaching something in the ballpark of 2008 prices over the next 3 years and mind you that is despite the fact that

we reached my price targets for gold and silver that I shared on December 17th 2023 and for my newer viewers you can see those numbers on the screen here now the main driver of that strength in stocks as we take a peek in at the top 10 assets by market cap list has clearly been tech stocks fueled by the AI narrative as well as speculation in Bitcoin which I covered in detail in last week's video and as a result of that gold and Silver's share of the top 10 assets has remained relatively flat

as they make up only 50.1% of the value of the top 10 assets right now but remember that still means gold and silver together are as valuable as all the companies listed on the screen plus all the Bitcoin in existence and that fact alone shows us what important assets they are even if some people like to say they're obsolete which in my opinion this data shows that they obviously aren't obsolete anyhow with Insider stock selling specifically of bloated tech stocks reaching an all-time high which is even higher now

than the 2021 selling frenzy that led into the shli 2022 bare market for stocks I think now is the time to assess how we'll likely finish the year and what awaits Us in 2025 so in this video we are going to take a look at historic gold and silver price performance for the month of December which I hope will be useful for those of you planning on gifting precious medals for Christmas then I want to review my outlook for 2025 and tell you about how I see the first half of the Year developing versus

the second half of the year and we'll finish this video with a viewer question on the topic of China quantitative easing so their money printing program and the status of their gold and dollarization initiative now just before we dive in I have a brand new free article for you Al to read at Summit medals.com on the topic of how much of someone's net worth should be in gold and silver and it's really a great guide for people who are serious about wealth planning so please check it out and

remember if you're looking to buy gold or silver at a great price with five star Service Summit medals can help you out with that too there are currently some amazing deals on the site like these Walking Liberty rounds for only $149 above spot and unlike some dealers there's no limit to how many you can order so I'll leave the links to the article as well as this great deal in the video description below and thank you to everyone who has already given Summit medals a try as it really

supports what I'm doing here now getting into it on the first point which is what will happen with gold and silver in December is there such thing as a Santa rally that will push the prices of gold and silver up and is now the time to buy before that happens well to start we have this data that I showed you all in last week's viewer question portion of the video where I talked about how to get the most for your medals when you sell and how to build a plan around seasonality to better plan your buys and

sells and for those of you who saw that you'll remember this data from the lbma and it shows us that from 1975 to 2020 December was the fourth best month when it comes to gold price performance with January being the second best so not bad at all for those two months but what this data doesn't take take into account are things like the precious metals ETFs that were launched in the early 2000s a shift towards gold buying by the world's central banks since 2010 and National debts that combined are more than $100

trillion today so to account for that I looked at Price performance for each December since 2000 for gold and if that performance was at all linked with how we started the next year in January and what I immediately noticed was that since 2000 67% of Decembers had positive price development for gold with the price of gold going up every December now listen to this for the last seven years and that's definitely a strong correlation and a very good indicator that gold can go up again in December of

this year after having a week November and as far as januaries go what we notice is that month comes with larger price movements on average with 63% of januaries being positive since 2001 with eight of the last 11 januaries resulting in a higher price for gold so again a very strong argument can be made for these months being good for gold but what I want you all to notice when it comes to seasonality is that despite December and January being strong months for gold gold has had positive years in

18 of the last 24 years measured which includes this year where we're up about 30% year to date and that means gold went up in December and January less times than it did for the whole year over this period of time which builds a strong case for maintaining a schedule and purchasing all year long when it comes to Silver December seems to be a coin toss with no clear trend of up or down and building on something I shared on X a couple days ago we may just see another retest around the $29 per ounce

level before we move up again and for those of you who aren't following me on X and would be interested in seeing regular updates like this daily please make sure you're following me on X just as a little reminder anyhow coming back to this data set the other thing I noticed is that January is statistically a very strong month for silver and although there are no guarantees how this January will shake out and I will share my thoughts on 2025 in a moment silver has had as many up months in

January since 2001 as gold has had December since 2000 which means it also goes up in price silver goes up in price in January more often than it finishes the year with a higher price and I think this data can be very useful for some of you who are planning to either buy or sell some silver very soon and if you think this type of data is useful please let me know in the comments section so I can know to add this type of analysis regularly to the channel in order to keep you all updated now before we move

on to the viewer question for this video I promised you all that I would revisit the 2025 Outlook that I first touched on in August of this year because what I was talking about then as we were headed into a Federal Reserve rate cutting cycle was that medals would boom crash and then boom again if you remember the thumbnail from that video and I've received some questions about whether I still think this will be the case based on what we saw when the FED cut rates in 2007 which was followed by a market

crash and then a Metals blowoff top where gold and silver got near $2,50 per ounce respectively so where I stand today looking at the market and looking at the possibility of a sell-off in stocks is that we should all be prepared for a potential sell-off in the first half of 2025 because that's likely when we're going to get the most bad news as it becomes politically advantageous to reveal just how much rot there actually is in the system and start to tackle it head on and I am going to cover this topic a bit deeper

when we get to the viewer uh question portion of the video in a moment but ultimately what I think this will result in is a pullback in the first half of 2025 or in the very least some months of consolidation and sideways to slightly downward movement in the prices for both gold and silver before things pick up again in the second half of the year at which point I expect higher prices than the 2024 highs for both gold and silver but to manage your expectations these are the price levels I am prepared to

buy aggressively should we see them as I continue my regular DCA into metals because you never know when or why price may take an unexpected bounce to the upside and this is something I've been warning all of my patreon members about and I am not trying to go all in at the bottom and as I switch back to this data I say don't try to pick the bottoms because there are a whole lot of people who waited for hary dent $800 gold let me know in the comments if you were one of those people who were waiting for

hary Dent's $800 gold and those people are sitting on nothing but devaluing cash today so please keep in mind that as gold has gone up in price 75% of the time in the 2000s based on annual price performance this is really a wealth protection mechanism for dummies and I say that proudly because I've been a dummy many times in my life but the one place I've been pretty smart is with my consistency with respect to buying gold and silver on a schedule and it's something that has really paid off since

I started back in 2008 now with that covered it's time to move on to this video's viewer question and please remember you can submit your questions to me in the comment section of every video I do I pick one question to appear in a video every single week and you never know your question may be the next one that I pick to cover so this week's question comes from IDC Woodcraft who I think has his own channel but he's been a very loyal viewer for a long time now so I felt it was only appropriate to

answer one of his questions and this is a good one because it ties in very well with current events and Mr Woodcraft as I'll call you uh asked me what are my thoughts on China QE and for those of you who don't know what QE is that means quantitative easing which means money printing will it strength the US dollar and I will take that question one step further and add my own question in here how will it impact the prices of gold and silver so to start most of us are aware that China announced a $1.4

trillion stimulus package about 3 weeks ago but what many of you probably don't know is that a lot of the money in the package is aimed at supporting their struggling real estate market and easing the debt burdens of their local Municipal governments and this has led many people to say that the measures don't go far enough to stimulate activity on the consumer side of things and it's why we saw Chinese stocks sell off after the stimulus was announced and why some people are calling for stronger

stimulus to support reaching the 5% GDP growth Target for this year in China now some have speculated that China was slow playing things leading up to the US presidential election and continued to do so in the wake of Donald Trump's Victory as they want to have some gas in the tank just in case they get hit hard by tariffs and with Donald Trump threatening tariffs against China as well as threatening additional tariffs for bricks Nations if they undermine the US dollar status as the global Reserve

currency which happened just yesterday by the way and that is another thing that I covered on X that seems to be a real threat to the Chinese export economy now I don't presume this threat will result in any immediate change of course for the bricks or for gold for that matter as it's not only bricks banks that are bu buing gold and I also think this pours a little cold water on all the Bitcoin Reserve hype because if Donald Trump is saying that the United States dollar is such an important

element of the global Reserve System I think it would be a bit contradictory for them to set up a Bitcoin Reserve which would seemingly undermine the Dollar's status as the reserve currency of the world but with that said I'm going to leave that topic for another video anyhow how this will end nobody knows but what many are expecting is increased stimulus in the direction of Chinese consumers as a result of all this talk to offset the impact of Donald Trump's potential tariffs against China

because with nearly 18% of the world's population and more than 25% of global investment and Manufacturing being Chinese the Chinese consumer only accounts for 133% of global consumption and that's something that the Chinese will want to tap into if they can't rely on the United States States as much going forward so how will that impact the value of the US dollar versus the Chinese Yuan and the US Dollar on a global scale well to start the Chinese manipulate the value of their currency to keep their export

economy strong they weaken the Yuan when they need to make their exports more attractive and they strengthen it when times are good and see the opportunity to earn a bit more money and although quantitative easing should weaken the currency they are still the second largest foreign owner of us treasuries which means they have the capability to support their currency by selling these bonds and buying Yuan on the open market if they need to and we have seen them do that a few times already since 2020 and

with the threat of us tariffs against them they may in fact want to pursue a weaker Yuan policy and allow the Yuan to weaken a bit just to keep their exports attractive for us consumers so ultimately I don't expect any major changes in the value of the uan versus the US dollar other than changes that benefit the Chinese government now moving on to the US dollar on a global level which of course has a little more impact on the prices of gold and silver we have seen all of this tariff talk push the dollar up since Donald Trump

became the clear favorite to win the presidential election and that's because the market thinks the tariffs will drive prices up and as a result of that the FED will have to fight against inflation again which is caused by the tariffs and not lower interest rates as much as they had planned or even raise interest rates as a result of that but what I can say about this is that it is absolutely a false assumption and a lot of people who are betting on a stronger dollar and weak precious metals prices are going to

get at some point in time caught with their pants down and this is why Donald Trump himself has said he will pursue a weaker dollar policy and a part of that is driven by his desire to make American exper reports more attractive and a way for him and US Republicans to force that agenda despite the fact that Jerome Powell might not want to play ball with him will be to make some of the harder decisions the US government is facing earlier on in 20125 as he becomes president in January and what I expect to see is I expect to

see them pull a lot of government spending that has thus far been propping up the US economy and labor market while using Joe Biden and the previous administration as the reason why things have gotten so bad and these plans by the way already seem to be in place and once that support is pulled I expect to see the US unemployment rate adjust to a higher level to reflect the reality we saw in September's major Divergence between official unemployment and what unemployment would have been if no

government jobs had been added once those government jobs start to disappear I expect a recession to be declared retro actively reflecting a starting date somewhere in 2024 paired with pressure on Jerome Powell to maintain course on interest rate cuts to Stave off the recession this could be followed by some sort of stimulus whether tax-based or injected into the economy like we saw in 2020 and 2021 during c19 but as far as my expectations go I expect this stimulus to be in the form of tax cuts all of which will continue

the Dollar on its path back below 100 on the dxy doll index and the US national debt on a trajectory to surpass $40 trillion by 2026 or 2027 as tax receipts stagnate despite the growth we may see in the economy and I'm not negating that fact I think that the economy will grow as a result of that but I do think that we will see core so non-discretionary spending remain largely unchanged because a lot of the career politicians in the House of Representatives and the Senate will not be willing to take those

hard decisions as they will be up for election in a few years ultimately I think this will have positive impact on the prices of gold and silver similarly to what we saw during Trump's first term as president when medals started to move up in early 2019 even though he implemented tariffs on China the EU Canada and Mexico in 2018 so IDC Woodcraft although a temporary bounce in in the dollar is possible as a result of China's quantitative easing Donald Trump's tariff policies and a potential

crash of the US Stock Market I do not believe it will be longlived and by the end of Donald Trump's second term as president which is a good time scale to look at right now I expect the dollar to be lower than 100 on the dxy and gold and silver to be significantly higher than they are today so I hope that answers your question thank you very much for asking it with that said that's it for this video I want to thank you all for watching please remember to leave a comment leave me some feedback

on what you thought about this content this channel is ultimately for you and what I'm trying to do is deliver the best content to keep you informed on the topics that you want to be informed on if you enjoyed this content please remember to leave a like as that has a big impact on how wide of an audience this video reaches so if you think this message is important and want it to reach a wider audience please remember to leave a like now and remember to share it with people you know who you

think need to hear this message as I finish this video I will say as I always say please take care of yourselves and please take care of each other but I will also say that we are going to finish this video with a little bit of content from Summit medals to show you exactly what they have on offer for this Cyber Monday which is a great day to find some precious medals at a great price so here's that video have a great day ahead bye okay [Music]