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 and I did see your 2025 crystal ball you have 10 bold predictions not to ignore uh for the upcoming year so I wanted to go through them I thought it was very well researched and very well written so kudos to you and there's 10 of them so maybe we could spend a couple minutes on each one um but first can I get your view on the overall macro landscape like what are you seeing in the world as we go into [Music] 2025 hello gold silver family Alan Hibert here with another video and today I wanted to sit down with the macro

Butler Mr Lauren lq and get some of his predictions for 20125 Lawrence thank you so much for sitting down with me today how are you doing it's my pleasure to be on gold silver well if we look at uh the situation of the world as of the end of 2024 uh the US economy is still in inflationary boom so I look at the world through the length of the business cycle and and looking at different major economies in the world the US is in inflationary boom Japan Europe and and China are already in know inflationary

bust and the risk for 2025 is that the US join the other major economies into an inflationary bust okay yeah that makes sense so really the us being a driver and inflation being a driver is that is that fair well I I think that the driver for the US to to move from an inflationary boom into an inflationary bus would be the decision that would be taken by President elect Trump and the consequences for the rest of the world I think that what people must understand is that the world is interconnected so

if the major economies of the world are in a stack flation it's very difficult for the US uh not to be in a stack flation as well especially the US put pressure on other countries to tariff makes sense all right fantastic well let's get into the first prediction you have here the Federal Reserve will resume rate hikes before the end of 2025 obviously there's been a lot of talk about rate cuts and if we went back just a few months ago there was an expectation of having three Cuts throughout 2025 but you think as I do

that the FED is going to resume rate Hy before the end of the year can you talk a little bit about that well it's quite simple I mean the FED cut weights in September while the US was still in inflationary Bove so there there were no reason for the FED to move F slower and in fact if we look back to history uh in 1970s when the US experien his worst inflationary bus in history in fact the FED had to reverse his first weight cut so I guess that this time will not be very different the FED will have to dial

back on fed on on his fat fund weights and ra weats probably in the second half of the year when we see the first impact of the Tariff implemented by President elect Trump in the first half of the year yeah I definitely agree with you and I decided to pull up a chart of the FED funds rate and just so people can see uh if we zoom out we're looking at 195 5 until today and we can see this long-term Rising cycle and then a long-term cutting cycle and it would appear like we're in another long-term

Rising cycle that has just begun so I don't know if you feel the same way are you expecting you know another 10 or 15 years of generally Rising rates or not so much well I think it's difficult to forecast for this kind of long period I would say that at least until the end of of the dat of the 47 President we we should expect interest rate to be higher and so the FED will have to to move up again first uh in the second half of 2025 and further in 2026 after 2026 it will all depend of all the midterm election turns

out that's fair I like it all right let's move on to point number two you predict that the da will outperform the nas ndaq in 2025 why do you think that's the case well clearly if you look back at history uh when an economy and when the US economy move from an inflationary boom into an inflationary bust in fact you can see a massive rotation out of grow stocks into more value stocks so this is why in 2025 as the US economy mve into stack flation investor will go back to the door outside this also the

door will benefit from external inflows meaning International investor will still focus on the US since the US is still the less dirty shirt in the laundry basket and of course institutional foreign investors are buying the door rather than the NASDAQ because the door are kind of the blue chip that everyone feels comfortable to own for the term that makes sense okay so you're expecting that rotation yeah definitely could be the case and why do you think that's going to happen in 2025 as

opposed to maybe 2026 or on a longer time scale well I I think that the reason that we have this shift in terms of from NASDAQ to the door is because we are back in a rising interest rate environment we are back in a rising yield environment and all this is favorable for the do stocks versus the NASDAQ so I think that here once again history will repeat itself if you remember 2022 I mean it was a bad year in terms of stock investment but you were better off in in the do stocks rather than in the

NASDAQ very nice thank you all right let's move on number three the US Energy sector will outperform the Magnificent s so this is a bold claim you think energy is going to do better than the mag 7 why is that but it's uh I would say a consequence of uh the old performance of the door versus the NASDAQ I think that there are a lot of positive trigger for the energy sector to outperform first uh it's under own second is undervalued third uh it has been unloved by most investor over the past four year

because most of the investors have were focused on ESG and I think that in 2025 a lot of these factors are changing we have seen a bottoming out of the oil price we see a rotation from growth into value and the UN US Energy sector is the is the value sector by Excellence while the Magnificent Seven is the grow sector by excellence and also do you think that the incoming Trump Administration is going to be you know a large Factor in the in the growth of the energy sector well I mean president Trum talk

about drill baby drill the the issue for drill baby drill is that no oil and gas company wants to drill at current oil price below $80 per barrels is very risky for a lot of oil companies to drill uh for these companies in fact today it's cheaper to buy oil on the New York Stock Exchange FL meaning that it's better to do m&a rather than go exploring the the perion and also in this context and I think that a lot of energy companies are still worried about the regulation that could come post the

midterm election or post 2028 so all of these come kind in an environment where I guess there's not a lot of incentive for us oil and gas companies to drill and clearly this brings back to the valuation and the value uh factor of the of the energy sector is is a value play interesting yeah I mean we it will be interesting to see how it plays out in the coming one year four years and so on so yeah I'll keep an eye on this prediction uh number four the US 30-year yield will rise above 6% so we're around

5% right now you think it'll go above six uh why do you think think that's the case well here there are two factors first the US government need to refinance almost 10 trillion US dollar this year there's clearly less demand from foreign investor because most foreign investor are still scared about US dollar weaponization so uh the demand is not here if we have a r of inflation and uh the move of the US economy from an inflationary into an inflationary bus there's clearly no incentive for nobody

to buy a long dat of ELD at current level so I would think that 6% on the 30-year yield is very probable I would say here my disclaimer is that we will never know that the FED could Implement a kind of Y curve control at some point because of course higher long data yield will be a threat for the US banking sector so I guess we could see maybe 5.5 rather than six but I think that we will see higher long data even from here yeah definitely I mean six is a pretty high Benchmark but it's certainly

possible of course um but I agree with you it is trending upward no doubt well I think if I if I may add I think if you look at the longterm chart of the 30 year bond yield in fact it's pointing to this 6% level in the next next 12 to 18 months so I've been a bit presumptuous to put this prediction for 2025 but if it doesn't happen in 2025 unless the FED implements he curve control I think that it will be a 2026 prediction yeah yeah sounds good I I'll let that slide even if it even if it

happens in 2026 I think that's still a good prediction excellent number five um the US dollar Index the dxy will reach new New Century highs exceeding 121 so you think sort of like the dollar milkshake Theory you think the dollar is going to attract all the capital from around the world yes I think that uh once again I mean the the FED uh will be forced at some point to to raise rate again long dated treasury yields are moving higher uh tariff are in fact very bullish for the US dollar in a way that this will

stimulate kex from foreign compan into the US so more foreign companies we have to invest to to start building Factories at some point in the US it means is it's a it's a big uh Tailwind for for the US dollar and on the other side o of the pound I mean you can only see a lot of political uncertainty in Europe in the UK in Japan and elsewhere in the world so so I guess that all this push the dollar much higher than it is I know that the consensus is that President elect Trump is bearish for the dollar I

think it's a misconception and I think that he cannot fight the flows and the flows are in favor of US dollar versus all other fat currencies in 2025 yeah um I could see that for sure and this whole notion of tariffs I mean that's you know Trump says it's his favorite word the most beautiful word in the English language is tariff which is a bit of a stretch but you know it it will be interesting to see how tariffs affect the US economy and the economy economies broadly because it's not

necessarily just a win-win situation it's definitely win- lose um so yeah I hope it does spark uh Capac spending from abroad um but we'll see you know it depends on the the timing and the severity of the tariffs I think well if I may add something it depends if Trump and the US is ready to strike a deal with foreign investor and here it also depends if foreign investor has the TR have the trust into what Trump can promise them in Return of investing in the US I think that uh the big issue of

the last four year is that a lot of trust have been lost between the US and the rest of the world and especially uh between us and Asian countries so even that if Trump invite more investment from foreign investor into the US this could be a thread and also we need to see all China and other major US trade partner will react to this implementation of tariff yeah definitely and hopefully we do get all those you know bilateral trade deals and so forth because countries that trade together do not go

to war together and I think we all want to see that prevented so okay that's the whole point of the come to this Global Source I mean in fact people may not know but the whole philosophy of the global source and the bricks is to trade together to avoid to have war between each other so I mean we will see if Trump buy into this merantes ID that is coming from the global South yeah yeah we will see very soon all right number six the Yen will trade above 200 again against the dollar so that's a pretty big move it's Yen's

around 150 almost 160 right around now so moving to 200 is is pretty significant why do you think it'll move so much well I think that here two things uh the first is that uh the boj will be forced at some point to come back with e curve control it will be unable to to waste weight and if you have the FED raising rates you have long dat US Treasury yield moving much higher in fact this will push uh the Yen much much weaker against the the the dollar and so I think that the Yen will come back to

be a carry trade funding currency and this time in fact investor will use the Yen carry trade to buy Exxon Mobile or Chevron rather than meta or pente interesting yeah that connects to the rotation you were talking about earlier uh yeah I mean that's that seems plausible to me I guess I guess we'll see like to what extent that happens and if it's enough to move all these different metrics um to the numbers you're talking about but I do think those Trends are are plausible fantastic okay number seven uh

oh physical gold will outperform Bitcoin scandalous okay okay go ahead explain your point here well if you look at the Bitcoin to go ratio in fact it has always Peak at the same time as the NASDAQ in and 2021 it was the case uh end of 2024 we we had a peak in the Bitcoin to gold ratio at the same time that we had the peak of the NASDAQ so I mean in the in the view that we have this big sector rotation from gr into value from Max 7 into energy in fact we will have this rotation from Bitcoin into gold and and that's why at the end

of the day 2025 is the juil year and and it will be remembered but another massive old performance of gold I think that we could see again a 20 plus percent performance of gold in US dollar yeah I I definitely think 20% is plausible do you think that Bitcoin will do well because of the incoming Trump Administration and the proposal of a national Bitcoin strategic Reserve or do you think that's not going to happen or it won't be a factor in moving the price well I think that what is uh moving Bitcoin is the risk environment

so in my theory 2025 will be much more risk off than risk on than 2024 and 2023 and in that context I guess is a is a headwind for for for Bitcoin and as I said it's it's part of this rotation from The Grow stocks into the value in fact uh you can think that Bitcoin is seen as as the gross asset versus gold which is the value Asset interesting yeah I can I can see how people would view them differently in that way it's not how I personally view them but anyways maybe maybe we could have you back for another video

and we can talk about gold and Bitcoin in the future um but yeah sure I I I wrote a whole newsletter about gold and Bitcoin the past week so I'm happy to come back and discuss that more in detail okay amazing that sounds great beautiful okay number eight the Euro Zone will Implement Capital controls okay so what type of capital controls are you thinking and and why do you think they would do that well I think that uh if you look at uh all the world is shaping uh I mean the the situation in you Europe is is a

complete political mess and you still have a war at the doorstep of Europe with the war between Ukraine and Russia and I think that contrary of what president elect Trump told us during the campaign he will not be able to end the war in 24 hours as promised so I guess that in this circumstances and I guess you will see much more uh Rising yields government bond yield in Europe as well than in the US you have already seen this in the UK over the past few weeks and in this process in fact the Euro Zone to protect

its banking sector uh will not allow his citizens to move asset outside the Euro zone so what I call about Capital control for those who remember the Asian financial crisis that's what Asian countries like Thailand IND Indonesia impos in 1998 during the financial crisis I don't think that Europe will do different things in fact I think that Europe is on the verge of a sovereign debt crisis and to delay this sovereign debt crisis they will just impose Capital control meaning that investor

will not be able to move Capital out of the Euro Zone do you have a sense of where where the cracks in the foundation might be or where we might see that sovereign debt crisis pop up first in Europe well I think that France is the the prime candidate for this there's not been a I would say a functional government for now almost a year and there's no hope for a functional government to be implemented in the near future so we will have to wait at least till the summer for another El potential

election in France and I think that the situation of the French deficit is so bad that in fact I I won't rle out that we see the IMF around the Shan is before B wow okay well I guess we'll see right it's a bit bold prediction this one it is it is bold but you know something something to watch out for you know we can't say we weren't warned all right very nice number nine this one really caught me by surprise a volcanic climate lockdown will be enforced this is kind of Sensational

sounding can you explain what you mean by this and and why you think it will happen well I think that uh I mean everything move into cycle outside the business cycle there's also a solar cycle and in fact at the end of 2024 we are we have entered solar minimum 25 so it means that the solar activity is declining and is in fact will botom me in 26 end of 26 early 27 and and historically this solar cycle and solar minimum has had an impact on the volcanic eruption meaning that the volcanoes are also moving into a cycle

which is kind of in sync of the solar cycle so I think it could it could it can sound a bit like science fiction but I mean uh I think that this is really under the radar of everyone and and especially of investor and I think for investor what is why is it important is because when we have a volcanic eruption uh this impact the climate and this especially impact the yields of the crops so uh this will have an impact on on food prices and this will add to the pressure of prices that we receive from

tariff from the global uncertainty in the world the uncertainty in the Middle East so I would say for investor the takeaway of this is that they should be ready to see much higher uh food prices and much extreme weather pattern like we we are seeing currently in in the US with the the cold wave around the eastern part of the us okay so just to summarize you're talking about the sun like the Sun and the Moon right that the sun actually uh changing basically the number of sun spots and the amount and type of energy

that it gives off and whatever hits Earth and how that will affect volcanic activity which will affect crop yields among other things and so do you have a sense of any governments around the world who are already speaking about this and planning for it in one way or another or is this largely unspoken about do you think governments will be caught off guard how do you think that will play out oh I think that uh most of the people are CAU of guard I mean I'm doing in fact for now some research on the impact of the

solar cycle on the business cycle because I think that there should be an impact and and this of course have impacts on investment but to be honest uh this has been a research that I have started to do last year uh because I find that is underrated this impact of the solar cycle and the impact of the the solar magnetic emission on on Earth in fact is much more than most of everyone can can assume and of course also it will have an impact on everything in terms of telecommunication and satellite

communication so when I say a a volcanic lockdown will be uh implemented means that there will be a lot of disruption in the supply chain from telecommunication to supply chain of food and basic needs of everyone and that could translate into rationing of some kind you know in various places that that's highly probable I mean I'm not a prop person uh but I think that this is something that everyone needs to to be aware of and the risk I mean we have also seen over the past few months a lot of

climatic event like urian and so on and I think that everything is interconnected and the culprit you can say is is the solar cycle yeah I agree with you in general that uh you know the celestial bodies the Sun the planets should have some impact on what we do on planet Earth the bics business cycle you know and and others and uh you know as a kid I remember hearing all of that bumped into astrology and then being laughed off and dismissed as silly but you know as I've come to think of it it's you know there

should be some effect I don't know what it is and I haven't studied it but there should be some effect so I'm very interested to see your research on that on solar cycles and the business cycle um so yeah looking forward to that well I would say also for for Asian it's not very disrupting because you know that the Chinese mythology is based on the cycle and the calendar in fact in in China is more based on the moon rather than on the western calendar so I guess that the chance that I have is that I live in

Asia and I started to understand all this cycle related to the environment we live in yeah that's a nice advantage of living over there beautiful okay last but not least number 10 a new proxy war between NATO and the global South will erupt on the Korean Peninsula so this one also caught me off guard I was not expecting this can you explain what you mean here and why do you think it will happen in 2025 well well I think that if uh we we dial back to the past year NATO has tried to to extend uh into Asia and has

been looking to integrate Japan and sth Korea into the alliance I think that here it's related also to the fact that I don't think that President elect Trump will be able to end the wars in 24 hours as he promised and in fact we are going into a rising War cycle in a way that uh the world will be disappointed by what is decided by the new president for for the world so I guess also here I mean if you follow the news uh there has been more and more con connection between Russia and North Korea so I guess in

this environment of extending NATO to Asia the likelihood is that the the tension on the Korean Peninsula have been underestimated for for many years and in fact again living in Asia and having contact with with Chinese I think that uh the US is too focused on the Taiwanese problem it's not really a problem per se and on the other hand the real point of tension in Asia is on the Korean Peninsula so so I I would think that if there's a new Evolution in the war cycle in 2025 it will happen in the

in Korea wow okay well I'll definitely keep my eyes and ears open that's the Korean Peninsula is something I really haven't paid a whole lot of attention to so maybe I will start now so thank you so much so laen this has been awesome 10 really bold predictions I really appreciate it how are you personally positioning yourself financially to take advantage of these 10 predictions that you've made well if you look at where we stay in the business cycle and all to invest across major asset classes

accordingly there's one asset class that you must avoid at all price is bonds you don't need you shouldn't hold any bonds any bonds with a matur of more than one year is is a risky asset it's not a safe asset anymore so this is the the first asset to avoid and I would say that in 2025 it will be all about risk management rather than return so in this environment all I position the portfolios is I'm clearly overweight physical gold I think that everyone should own between 30 and 40% of his

portfolio in physical gold and for the rest I would say I'm in equities I mean high quality equ companies more tilted tower the doj style of companies and to manage the cash actively in fact you can own an investment grade Bond portfolio of uh with a maturity of less than 12 months so this give you like a five plus per US dollar return with no duration risk and very low credit risk so I would say this is kind of the conservative way that I approach 2025 since I think that in 2025 it's all about managing risk and

minimize draw down yeah more a bigger concern on the return of capital rather than a return on Capital yeah so I that's right that's right in fact this is always the conclusion of the the newsletter is that the the priority is the return of capital rather than the return on Capital I think that if we if the world move into a stock flation if we deliver three to four% real return me on top of inflation that would be a very good year in 2025 awesome Mr Lawrence L the macro Butler thank you so much for joining me today I

really appreciate this discussion thank you very much [Music]