gold news

 [Music] hello gold silver family alen Hibert here with another video and today I want to go through some price predictions for gold for 2025 so let's dive in and first we'll take a look at an article from Goldman Sachs they had a prediction earlier in January Goldman Sachs analysts have revised their Target price for gold in 2025 to $2,910 per ounce okay 2900 not bad next city and this comes from July of 2024 so it's a bit older however they give an 18-month forecast so City forecast

continued growth in Gold investment demand potentially absorbing nearly all mine Supply over the next 12 to 18 months this underpins their projection for gold prices to reach up to $3,000 per ounce by 2025 okay 3,000 next JP Morgan this comes to us in December JP Morgan projects gold prices rising to $3,000 an ounce by late 2025 another 3,000 and finally UBS is bullish on gold this was from November uh in a CNBC interview UBS announced its anticipation for gold in 2025 to hit a price target of $3,000 per ounce and by the way they're

not alone so here's a compilation of a whole bunch of analysts and all the ones in the red box have predicted $3,000 an ounce gold so it's kind of funny to me this is clearly not like a hard analysis if you're coming up with a such a round number like 3,000 but it is interesting how so many industry peers come up with a Target around that area and of course some are higher going up to his high as $5,000 an ounce Robert kosaki likes to be at the top of that list I think and some are lower but still holding that

2900 line so a lot of analysts predicting around 2,900 33100 an ounce gold but you might ask yourself how good are these analysts so let's take a look at how they did last year here's a chart that has a lot of information in it so let me walk you through it uh the vertical axis is the price of gold the horizontal axis we have four different banks here the ones we just looked at and the bars here the dark blue and the light blue these are the price predictions that they made for the end of each year for the end of 2024 and the

end of 2025 so just looking at the height of the two bars you can see that all four of these banks have significantly increased their price targets from one year to the next they've all risen them by over 35% just shy of 40% so that's a pretty big move in one year right raising your price price Target that much okay but again how did they do so if we look at this black line going across here at $2,072 that was the closing price at the end of 2023 or in other words it was the price of gold on the first day of

2024 and what were these Banks predicting the price of gold would be at the end of 2024 well that's the dark blue line that's just barely above this black bar so these Banks thought that the price of gold would barely move just a couple of percentage points in the case of Goldman Sachs they thought that gold would increase by less than 1% just $18 from 2072 to 2090 less than 1% in a year okay of course that didn't happen we know that gold returned 27% so all of these analysts were way off they

significantly underestimated what gold would do so that's pretty massive so now we turn our attention to 2025 okay the price on opening day was 2641 so that's this medium color blue here in the middle and the price targets that these banks have put out are these light blue bars that are a little bit above however if gold performs the same in 2025 as it did in 2024 about 27 a. half% that would put gold up here at $3,367 per ounce and you can see there's a pretty significant shortfall a lot of

white space here between the top of these blue bars and this dotted blue line so 2025 could be another example of significant underestimation on the part of those Wall Street analysts but we we will see we will see what I want to do is zoom out and look at this whole thing in a broader context I want to remind you for folks you know who who may have forgotten the current gold bull market looks a lot like the last bull market of the 1970s this blue line here is the gold bull market of the 1970s and the

timeline is at the bottom of the screen and the price of gold is over here on the left hand side gold moved from $35 an ounce to just shy of $8 75 in the span of a decade that's massive the current poll Market is in Gold so that started at the beginning of the 21st century and it followed along the same trajectory pretty nicely although taking a longer time period until covid this deviation here was really the covid crash and it hasn't fully recovered however that's not going to stop the

bull market it's just going to delay it so I'm still expecting to get a pretty nice rocket ship move at the end of The Bull Run whenever that happens and I'm thinking it's in the next year or two so it could be 2025 could be 2026 could be 2027 but it's definitely coming soon and what's interesting is you get the biggest moves at the end of the bull market so now I want to show this same data broken up by annual returns so these are the annual returns of the 1970s bull market and you can see that

in 1973 look at this return it was over 70% in one year 70% return in one year so a lot of big moves here a pull back in the middle and then the bull market ended with an absolutely explosive move the price of gold more than doubled in a year more than double it was over a 125% return and the current bull market which is taking longer has shown a fairly similar trajectory a lot of a lot of healthy returns over 30% a pullback in the middle some down years and I'm expecting that we're going to end this

bull bull run on whenever that is 2025 2026 something like that with the biggest annual candle that we've seen that's what I'm thinking so here the red one I've drawn here is over 60% who knows if it will actually be that high I'm not confident that it will happen in 2025 but it certainly is possible so even if we get something like 30% that will still be massive so those are some predictions for 2025 what do you guys think do you have a price prediction for gold let me know in the comment section

and thank you so much for watching [Music]