[Music] I'm Charlotte McLoud with investing news.com and here today with me is Adrien day president of Adrien day Asset Management thank you so much for being here well thank you for ask me sh it's really good to be talking to you I know we we saw each other recently only just over a month ago but there's so much going on I think it's of course worth catching up again and see what's going on with gold of course we've seen gold right now we're in a pullback but it did


go past 2900 and you told us in that conversation gold was going to keep Rising because the central banks still had their reasons to buy Chinese retail demand you also mentioned was strong so that rise past 2900 were there any other contributing factors that You' mentioned well I think it's still primarily the central banks but yes North American investors have finally started to get into physical goals it's been very sort of small but if you look at the last month it's been a positive inlow into


the GLD in the last month so we we' seen a bit of a turn in physical buying and and frankly in Europe as as well the European ETFs had had infos before the GLD did um now that's physical gold that's not gold stocks we'll talk about that later but I think I think um I think we're beginning to see interest in in North America that's that's that's H yeah yeah very crucial to make that distinction and we will bring up the gold stocks later as we've seen this do gold price increase


I've been hearing a lot of talk about the flow of gold from London over to the US and the prevailing narrative I think is that this is front running the tariffs and I wanted to get your take and see if you think that's what's happening or is there something more going on well I I amum I always apply or misapply I always apply elam's razor to everything in life the simplest explanation is often the best or at least if the simple explanation works then why look for complicated exploration and yeah there's a lot of


stories and rumors I mean any speculation that that this is something you know deeper but we're running out of gold that people are gold hold paper holders are going to ask for delivery and there's not going to be any gold no I think it's just tariffs you look it started right immediately before the election um when tariffs when it was obious Compass than a win and tariffs were a big a big issue um it started right there and of course for more it's gone on become self-fulfilling because


as more gold came from London over to uh North America the North American Gold start started to demand a premium so a premium got as high as $30 an ounce at one point so a high of a premium then that only encourages more people to bring to bring gold over so you got arbitragers coming in um and and so um it it's been quite phenomenal it's about 50 tons I think so far has come over which is which is really significant but I don't don't think it's any more than than just tariffs and and and Arbitrage


and I suspect that at some point just as we saw with Co we saw the same thing with Co when banks in the US were afraid that they simply might not be able to get your gold well if you're a bank this sounds odd to say but Banks actually like to drisk themselves and so if your bank you don't necessarily think you're going to H you're going to have to deliver the gold but you certainly don't want to be a position in Co when you can't get the goal to deliver and now you don't want to be in a position


when you have to pay a 10 or 20% tariff in order to get to gold so it was really just a d risking mechis it will un it feeds on itself but at some point it'll die down and unwind well and there's so much tariff uncertainty right now I'm almost afraid to even mention the terrorist because it's changing week by week day by day but we don't even know if they would includ gold is that I mean that's true nothing has been spoken of gold it's certainly not something like coal steel that's


being targeted but I mean if if if if blanket 10% were put on all goods from London then that would include gold obviously yeah yeah from England I mean not from London yeah yeah yeah and talking a little bit more about tariffs and where they're going to apply Trump has launched this investigation to look at putting tariffs on copper so we we've talked a little bit about copper in the past I think I imagine sometime it'll take some time to make a decision but we're seeing that similar I think


Arbitrage situation play out there so any any thoughts on how that could play out yeah I mean I hate to apply logic well I hate to apply logic to any govern rate so this isn't a political point to any government uh including this one but I mean logically if you're worried that we need a lot of copper in the United States and we're not producing enough the last thing you want to do is put tariffs on couple from abroad that's so I suspect I suspect that that the people making a recommendation will recommend


no tariffs and they'll recommend encouraging domestic production and so on and of course Trump has already said he wants to cut red tape cut the permitting time you know all of those things would be very helpful for the mineral industry very helpful yeah yeah I had Rick rule on just before you and he was talking about how there's so much Showmanship in with Trump and it yeah it feels like that to me here I'm trying to be nonpolitical yeah but um but yeah I mean the plain fact is I mean I don't


like tariffs anyway but but but a tariff on steel to protect your steel industry there's a sort of logic there but a steel and copper cuz we're not producing enough it's just perverse so I don't think they're going to do that but who knows yeah okay and just to briefly get your your thoughts on the upit for copper usually we do yeah go are you very bullish on cop yeah no I'm very bullish on copper I think there's a few things you know obviously well obviously um it looks as though demand for copper


and electrical vehicles and electrification generally um windmills and so on is probably we need to Tamper our demand expectations um as as as people are being a little more realistic I'm using diplomatic words people are being a little little bit more realistic about um um some of this and also the demand for EVS remember EVS have have um limitations right um in a country like the US where Canada where distances are so large and charging space stations are so far apart you know most people who have an EV have


two cars they have an EV to drive around town and show how you know um socially aware they are and then they have a real car to go on proper Journeys well I think we've sort of exhausted the people that want and can afford two cars and so a person who's only got one car has to ask himself or herself I guess I have to say that these days um you've got to ask well you know is an Eevee going to work because you know I travel 400 miles every week to see my daughter yeah that's going to be


tough stopping halfway to recharge so I think I think the demand is naturally flattening from the expectations that we had and that of course affects copper sorry getting back to Copper but you know even if you cut the if you look at a demand picture a demand picture for copper F years out even if you cut the EV Demand by half cut will Mills by half you've still got more copper than we're producing the demand will be more than we're producing and that there higher prices I think its high prices for


copper are as close to inevitable as anything the only thing that could what could der real at is is a global recession and particularly a recession in China because China still accounts for 50% over 50% of global um copper demand so if China goes into a economy goes into a tail spin then that would that would change your outload for gold but the real key to Copper for me obviously every price is determined by supply and demand but the real picture the real story for copper for me is not the demand so much


as a supply you know we're just not finding big new COA projects yeah and this maybe leads into for investors how should they if they like the copper Story how should they invest in the space right now given that well I mean again no Razer I think the most obvious ways are sometimes the best they're not necessarily the ones who will give you you the maximum leverage but perhaps they give you sufficient leverage and much greater uh at at much lower risk so a a a copper ETF is a good way but but frankly something like uh


freeboard you know freeboard is the largest publicly traded copper Miner in the world they' got mines in multiple jurisdictions um it's a good company in and of its own right with a good balance sheet and good management and the truth is if the copper price doubles you know you know the Free Port is going to do well they would also be a beneficiary if Trump did put tariffs on imported copper because they have copper in in Nevada and um Arizona yeah so maybe we don't have to over complicate on the copper site


that's my feeling and I know a lot of the companies here looking for you know exploring for copper and but you know there's always add we all know this you know but there's added risks when you're looking for when you're looking for something when you're developing something there's a lot of added risks over the established producers okay okay we've we've taken a side quest into copper I'll bring us back around to to what's going on I think in the US economy right now so


we're due for the next monthly jobs report later this week and seems like everybody's watching that pretty closely what are you what are you expecting to see there what should we pay attention to yeah look I mean to me the most important thing in this jobs report report frankly will be the revisionist of the previous two months jobs reports which um never gets the headlines but is what's really important I mean you look at the one was it last month where we had two 256,000 jobs created which and


and 220,000 of those were private sector jobs which was just so different from all of the previous ones you you you you have to think they're going to revise that so the revisions to is what I'll be looking at okay yeah you do always remind us to pay attention to that so so we've got that coming and later in the month we've got the feds next meeting which I it's of course the FED is still here and they're doing its thing but it feels like for me it's getting overshadowed by all this other stuff so


of course you you had told us the FED knows it has to cut but it can't go too quickly because of the risk of sporing on inflation so at this meeting what are you expecting to see and maybe we talk about into 2025 as well I suspect that they're going to hold steady another meeting um you know a lot will depend on uh you know if if jobs come in really bad but I but I think I think the I think the bias at the moment is to hold steady and that's because the inflation numbers are picking up


remember if you look at a graph of inflation for the last three years you saw big spike up in Co and you saw collapse and you say oh inflation's under control but if you just look at the last six or seven months since last June infl the inflation numbers in the US are on a very very steady uptrend and um the FED knows that the Janel himself has said many times that you know it's taking longer than he expected so I think I think the temp I think I think their bias will be towards holding rates where they are for the


time being and I wanted to ask you about Trump and Powell as well Powell seems to be flying under under Trump's radar after they had that kind of spat earlier on do you think that's going to change after we get this next fed meeting or what do you think about that oh gosh sorry I mean look there's so many things there's so many things on the administration's radar at the moment but they sort of cond do all of them at the same time it's pretty amazing how many how almost what 80 executive orders


already the last one was to make English the official language of the United States um so I mean there's so many executive orders playing there's so much going on um I suspect what we're going to see is the the the economic team in the White House triy to overshadow bed um you know by coming out more publicly with their own prognostications and their own you know projections and just overshadow with yeah I can see how that might not be too hard to do with that flurry of of action that seems to be coming out right


right I mean it's difficult I mean it would be difficult to try to fire pout um and so short of firing him what do you do just try to downplay the F's importance yeah okay yeah or maybe pick the next fed chairman and and sort of build up that person yeah yeah have a sort of Shadow fed interesting interesting concept just a little bit more on what's going on with Trump and the US you know we've talked about how there's so much happening are you paying close attention to this constant stream of of new ideas


coming out or how how can investors yeah yeah no interesting you mentioned that there's something that hasn't got a lot of attention yet has been given a name of the maralago Accord which is a riff on um is Riff the right word I think so SS like a very teenage word it very hip yeah very hip um it's a riff on the Plaza of cot Cod of course and the plaza the maralago Accord is really a collection of desperate ideas coming from Trump himself from his economic advisors and from people outside outside


the government but um on on the Trump teen as it were with different proposals and different papers so at the moment it's a sort of loose collection of desperate ideas rather than a firm plan of Jim biano I think he said it's not a thing it's a concept but um but you get the point but again Jim biano said um don't you don't need to take all of this literally but you need to take it very seriously so what is it there's some goals the goals are to reduce what is seen as uh the


persistent overvaluation of the dollar there's an aim to get other countries to pay more because there's a sense that uh the world has been mooching up the US now I I disagree with the premise but that's the premise and then the third one is to get interest rates down because of funding crisis is coming in the US funding crisis is coming whether it's Trump or Biden or Harris or whoever it is we we're getting very very close by the end of this year we will the US will will be facing a a a


funding crisis and so those are the three sort of goals and they're all sort of intertwined in in some ways and so there's all these policies tariffs is one of them you know Trump has talked about instead of the Internal Revenue Service we should have an external Revenue Service to collect money from other countries you know to pay for us um there's the idea of having European countries paying more for their defense you know and you you could make an argument so there's a lot of different


things some political you know why is the US still paying for Europe's defense 70 years after the end of World War I I mean that's a legitimate question to ask um and so the idea is that EUR should pay more for themselves um uh and and so on and then there's one one of the more extreme proposals frankly is that the US will require uh foreign governments of full treasuries will require them to exchange those treasuries for are you ready for this sit down or you ask said him for 100e non-tradeable zero copos


now the immediate thing that occurs to anyone of course is why would anyone willingly exchange a treasury for 100 year non-tradeable zero and the proposal is to link that to security so carrot and stick will will keep um you know the seven Fleet in in the Red Sea if you exchange your treasuries but if you don't you're on your own we're not coming to defend you um so there's a lot of proposals like that and there and and we all know Trump often starts with a negotiating stance that seems very extreme and then


comes in a little bit to something just less a little less extreme but you can see how I've only mentioned a couple of the actual proposals but all these things kind of tie together we want to reduce the value of the dollar cuz that's hurting allegedly hurting the US of course they forget by being the world's reserved currency not only do you have certain obligations and duties but by goly you can print as much money as you want because there's always governments that will buy it and so in fact us interest


rates are lower than where they otherwise would be because it's a reserve currency our inflation is lower than it otherwise would be because a reserved currency ex exports its inflation and the standard living in the US is higher than it otherwise would be because we can continue to print stuff that other people will buy right so it's not a oneway street by any means I mean the premise is completely wrong in my in my view but anyway it it you can see how all these things kind of tie together to


reduce the value of a dollar to get other countries to pay more and and also to reduce uh the interest rate in in the US as I say we've got a funding Crisis coming and if if the US can get a bunch of countries to to get zero coupons instead of treasuries to pay interest that reduces the amount of money the US has to pay out but this is going to be this is going to be a very um I guess interesting is the most uh neutral but softest word I can come up with but as Jim biano said you know take it not literally but take it


seriously okay yeah but let me just say all sorry to interrupt but all of the proposals that I've seen so far as some of them are even cont ictory although they're all aiming for the same general thing but every single one of them is gold bullish okay right yeah no you yeah yeah so the only thing I can see that is gold negative in the next few years would be some government action like a confiscation of gold or um you know something that you know even if the US were to sell the gold which I


don't think they will but I mean even if us were to sell all their gold to help raise money to pay the deficit that would have a short-term negative but my goly wouldn't that be longterm very very positive when people see the US has sold his gold just like brown you know sold all of Britain's gold right at the very bottom Canada sold all his gold just before it took off in 2016 I think so if the US sold all this gold that would be very very positive so so frankly I can't see anything that would be really


fundamentally negative to go very interesting and I mean that in a good way a good interesting I don't usually ask you this but do you do you have a gold price in mind for 2025 uh they S I know I know not not a price and a time together yeah um you know look I think we're heading into a correction right now we've already had two days of Correction or 3 days whatever it is we're only down we're down less than 4% from the high that's not an awful lot uh when you see what gold has done this year uh just just


this year it was up about what 12% this year so we retreated about transfer qu% other so we might have a bit more to go on the downside but you know if you look what gold has done in the last two months is there any reason to think but we couldn't have the same kind of return in if not the next two months but in two months later on well that would take us to 3,300 um in percentage terms so I think I think by the end of a year for us to be a 34 3500 is is is not an aggressive is not an aggressive predic at all no it


doesn't feel very no no I was on the panel recently when I asked that question and I was I was I was amazed I says 3435 and I was I was a Fest number and I thought oh but it's not that dramatic at all no it doesn't feel very dramatic at this point so quite I think the next big moving goal in the gold sector is going to be people coming into the gold STS that's going to be your next bab yeah then I promised I promised we would make our way back around to the Gold stock then you've told us pretty


extensively about the Gold stock opportunity but is is there to add right now it's it's the same only the longer it goes on then the better the opportunity gets look we talked last time I know out about uh inflows and and the lack absolute lack of interest in North America when I left this is now Sunday right so when I left Wednesday night so I don't know what happened Thursday Friday but when I left Wednesday night neither the GDX nor the gdxj had a single day of net inflows this year that is I mean just think


about it gold is a record highs gold is a record highs but gold stocks are making money hand over fist with with expanding cash flows and preash flow um and yet there's not a single day when there's been inflows into the gold stops I mean that's just staggering um yeah and and the gold valuations just remain very very undervalued they're very undervalued the gold Stu are you know pretty as we told first and they're pretty much the lowest valuation in 40 years um cash flow cses expanding and likely


to continue to expand because I think this year but you know it it's sort of a little frustrating to me when every every analyst call I've been on every quarterly call I've been on for the last year half of the call is spent on talking about costs and how costs are going up and all the measures we're taking to control our cost that's all very important but why doesn't someone just come out and say but the gold price is going up faster than the costs and margins are expanding this is a very


very very very um I'll say unusual but also very very as uh uh uh compelling opportunity right now because normally of course when the gold price goes up when you see a gold price of copper go up the price of steel goes up the commodity currencies go up price of energy goes up and your margins don't really expand at all we're in a situation where gold is going up much faster than everything else okay I I think that sums it up pretty well and I I'll let you go now I know you've got lots to do here but any


final thoughts does that does that cover it um I think that covers it to just how compelling an opportunity this is and at some point it's may be Monday it may be tomorrow for all I know it may be next week or next month or maybe we have to wait a few more months but at some point the sentiment in the US or not Ana generally but sentiment we turn from disinterest because at the moment people are simply not interested it's not the people are look it's not the investors and analysts and companies are looking a


gold of saying no I don't think so they're just not looking at some point the disinterest or I should say uninterest sorry got my grammar wrong the uninteresting gold will uh non-interest in Gold will change and when it does I mean the flood of money into gold as we know will will be very very dramatic I meent I don't know if I mentioned last time but astonishingly you know you look at every gold company in the world and it's we're looking at about $650 billion Market yeah you look


at the five tough um companies in the US over 50 try I mean that it's such a tiny industry you only need a small amount of money to start flowing to this sect uh for the stubs to really cry okay okay we leave it there I hope for the sake of this interview it doesn't happen Monday but I'll I'll take next week so really good to have you here thank you so much for coming on want to go through all these this tricky topic thank you very much sh okay once again I'm Charlotte McLoud with invest


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