Hey everyone, welcome to my channel and welcome back to my subscribers. This is Bald Guy Money. I am Bald Guy and in this video we are talking about the economic recession. The headwinds silver is facing specifically as a result of the recession. The single biggest mistake most silver sta stackers make, especially new stackers. The key price level silver must hold to remain in its current price corridor, as well as what prices I'm looking for in a worst case scenario where I will likely start


stacking really hard. You will not want to miss a second of this video. Seriously, there is a lot of important information in this video. But just before we get started, I want to say none of this is advice. This is meant to be educational. And I want to ask you right now to take a second to hit the like button. This channel is at a critical growth stage right now. And its recent success has come thanks to all of you who have been liking and commenting. So, if you like this content, I only ask that you keep it up with the likes and


the comments because it's thanks to people like you who are out there doing that that this message is reaching more people. So, I said we have entered a recession and some people may not agree with that assessment because the generally accepted definition of a recession is this. a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters and according to the official statistics here they are we have only experienced a


single quarter of real economic decline so far but the writing is on the wall everywhere you look from the selling off of stocks by insiders from major corporations at the end of last year, which was really the canary in the coal mine in my opinion. I mean, these are people with access to information that makes it easy to know when downturns are coming to a stalling housing market poised for a correction after running white hot for the last 18 months to this a decline in manufacturing. something


everyone who is holding a stack of silver or is considering buying some silver needs to be aware of because this is where the story is and this will undoubtedly begin to impact the price of silver over the short term. As a result of this, I expect the resolve of a lot of new stackers to be seriously challenged and I also think there could be some great opportunities for long-term stackers to buy and this is why. So, I've just shown a headline regarding a slowdown in American manufacturing, but this is not something


that is exclusive to the USA. Here is a chart from JP Morgan which shows measurements of global manufacturing output since 2007. It's not the easiest to read, but I want you all to focus on this blue line and the scale on the right. This is showing us the change year-to-year in global goods production as a percentage. Because as you can see, we have just entered a period of negative manufacturing growth globally and this has serious implications for the price of silver. Now, if you remember from my last video on silver


manipulation, and by the way, if you haven't seen that video, definitely go back and check it out because this topic is is really linked to that topic. But I said in that video that the price of silver is heavily connected to demand of the physical metal. And for those of you who haven't seen that video yet, please take a look at this. Now, I said in that video and have been saying for a long time that demand for silver industrially and in consumer electronics is growing. And this is what has been driving the


price of silver the most at least from the demand side and it will continue to do so moving forward. And a disruption in manufacturing is going to impact this part of the demand curve. Now how this all connects to the global manufacturing graph I showed earlier is exactly like this. Take a look. Again, there is a lot to look at here, but it's worth the effort because up top we have the global manufacturing output graph. I have split the years with black lines to isolate the points where we see periods of


growth of 5% or more in a year. And I have marked those periods with red dots you can see just above those uh the line on the graph. Just below that, you will see data for the price of silver reflected in the average closing price for silver in a given year. And what I discovered when I did that was this. In years where global manufacturing growth exceeded 5% growth year, the price of silver went up 80% of the time. And in years where that did not happen, the price of silver was either stable [snorts]


or declined 80% of the time. So based on that data and what I've been talking about, what do you think could happen to the price of silver over the next 12 to 18 months? Well, considering the fact that we have been running a silver deficit for more than a year now where demand has actually outstripped supply and assuming miners have been and are still going to try to increase their output to fill some gaps and make a little bit more money, it is possible that the price can go down in the short


term. And we are already seeing this play out in the copper and aluminum markets. Now, this is the part of the video where I reveal how much I think the price of silver can actually come down over the immediate short term as well as reveal the number one mistake I think most silver stackers are making that and this is a mistake that I don't want you all to make. So, please watch this next part very carefully. So, I showed this chart in my last video. Let's bring it up. This is the price of


silver chart. And I said in my last video that we are getting dangerously close to the bottom part of the current price corridor shown right here. And if we break that support level and close below $22, we could see the price of silver tumble back down to the previous resistance level of around $19 seen here in the previous trading corridor. And I would expect that $19 price level to become our new support with the next support level being as low as $17 and the previous $22 support level becoming our


new resistance level. Now, the biggest mistake a lot of silver stackers are going to make here if in fact we do break this $22 support line is that they will panic. And what I want to say is don't panic, especially if you are new to silver stacking. And I also want to ask the long-term experienced silver stackers right now, I want your take on this in the comments. Let's offer some words of support for the new stackers among us. Because if we look at the price of silver versus the demand for


silver bullion right here, it shows that most stackers are undisiplined and buy most when the price is high. So this is data from 2012 to now. And if you look at this period here from 2016 to 2019, a solid 4-year period where the price was low and chopping sideways, there was the lowest demand for silver bullion for the period. And it's crazy because here from 2020, as the price starts to rise, so does the demand for silver bullion. And in economics, it should actually work the other way around where the higher


the price, the lower the demand. And the lower the price, the higher the demand. So what does this tell me? Well, this tells me that silver is a gifen good, which in fact many investments are. They are gifen goods. Investments in savings are not luxuries. You need them. But time and again, I see people buying the top, then it comes down a bit, they panic, and they sell basically at the bottom. And if you entered silver looking to hedge against inflation and save money in an alternative way, please


know this, it's a long-term deal. It's not a dog coin, get rich quick. Same thing with Bitcoin. Every time new all-time high, everybody says, "We're going to the moon." We correct. The price comes down. Oh, Bitcoin is junk. I'm selling at a loss. And although I don't give financial advice on this channel, I say it at the beginning of all my videos, I am actually going to break that for a second. And I'm going to say this. The idea if you're trying to save money or or make money in any


way is buy low, sell high. Not buy high and sell low. So let's bring up the chart again. So, if we enter a period of 12 months where we have that correction and move down, like I said, I'm looking for anywhere from $19 to as low as around $17. What I am saying to you is that is typically the best time to stack to buy more because this recession is much different than the crash we experienced in 2008. Way different. and the price of silver will rebound hard when the economy does. Listen, in 2008 we had too


much credit and we had too many houses. The economic issues we are facing now are related to too much money and not enough production due to logistical and pred and production issues caused by the C19 pandemic. Now, if you are interested in a video that digs deeper into how this recession is different from the other recession and why I think silver is going to bounce back fast and really hard, if you want to understand the nuances of that situation, I need you to let me know in the comments right now.


Just like you requested me to do this video, I need to know whether or not you want me to do a silver recovery video. What I think the timeline is and what I think the actual circumstances behind it is going to look like. because I have been going through tons of data specifically with respect to the demand for silver in consumer electronics and the stats will absolutely blow your minds. I know it blew my mind. So that's it for this video. If you have any questions, please ask them in the comments section. I am active there. I


will answer your question if you give me a question. [clears throat] Don't forget to drop a like again and support the growth of this channel. You've all been excellent in supporting the growth of this channel lately and a lot of the recent views that I've been getting, a lot of the new subscribers are thanks to you who have been liking and commenting. Um, it's kind of your tool for telling YouTube what you think other people should know about really liking and commenting. So, with that, I wish you


all success. I wish you all health. I wish you all happiness. And I do hope to see you in the next one. Ciao.