hey everyone welcome to my channel and welcome back to my subscribers this is bald guy money i am bald guy and if you click this video you are in for a real treat today because we are talking about the inevitable silver price rebound we will also be talking about the economic conditions that will lead to the inevitable increase in price why inflation hasn't had a bigger impact on price so far and an in-depth analysis of what separates us today from the financial crisis that we experienced back in 2008 so watch this video to the


very end because it's going to be non-stop information for anyone who is seeking a clear explanation of what is currently happening on the market i promise you will be smarter after watching this video as always this is not advice and i want to ask you right now to take a second to hit the like button we have gained over a thousand new people to our bald guy community over the last month and it's all thanks to those of you who are liking and commenting on these videos which causes more people due to the due


to the algorithm to see this content and more people to learn about these important topics so if these topics are important to you and you think more people need to see them now is the time to let the algorithm know so now to the topic in my last video i showed you all this and what i said in that video which if you haven't seen it yet you absolutely need to go back and watch it but in a nutshell i said that since 2007 when manufacturing which is shown in the graph on the top has grown more than five percent from


year to year the price of silver which is the bottom graph has increased 80 percent of the time and i also said that when we were under that 5 manufacturing growth benchmark that price either stayed stable or declined 80 percent of the time now the point of me saying all that was because of this as you can see here we have entered a period of global manufacturing decline and this is a major problem for the price of silver i will give a full explanation of why and share the mind-blowing stats i promised you all in my last video


shortly but first i also need to remind you because some of the people might not have seen the last video i need to remind you all about this the key price level i said we had to hold to remain in our trading corridor was here 22 which was the bottom support in our corridor between 22 and 29 dollars and we actually broke that level faster than i expected which means now we have strong resistance at 22 in fact i've seen silver try to jump back above 22 dollars a couple times with strong rejections below that price


around 21.80 and our new support is here at 19 and if you remember from my last video that was the previous resistance level before we broke into the higher price corridor so that's housekeeping done but when are we going to have a price rebound and what prices do we need to look out for to answer this we have to understand exactly what type of recession we're in because a lot of people i speak to are benchmarking our current situation to the crash we had in 2008 and if in fact this is true


some are saying we can expect a run-up in the price of silver like we saw here which of course corresponded with this major recovery in manufacturing seen in the chart on the right here meaning that from a price point around 20 dollars per ounce we could theoretically go all the way up to around 47 once a recovery happens but don't turn off the video quite yet because as i've said before this downturn is nothing like what we experienced back in 2008 and i have some incredible data to support this


and it will undoubtedly impact the speed at which we see a recovery as well as what prices we could hit before stabilizing in our new price corridor and i am about to tell you exactly what we need to look out for and please remember to use the comments section throughout this video to share your thoughts on what you think about this topic that i'm talking about do you agree do you disagree use that tool to add your voice to the amazing discussions that are happening in the comments section under these videos so


the first fundamental difference i want to point out between now and 2008 is that back in 2008 we simply had too much bad debt in the market and too much supply of things to buy that means that back in 2008 when the market corrected it corrected in the direction of we don't actually have to make as many things because demand is weak and as a result we don't need as many workers so the subsequent layoffs compounded an already bad problem and you can see that right here there are no ifs ands or buts about it because


in the u.s market where the crisis originated job openings went from just around 5 million down to about 2 million in a matter of 2 years and that's a 60 drop and it's not just jobs or housing that was impacted back then it was nearly everything look at this this graph shows vehicle sales and following nine record-breaking years of vehicle sales where sales were above 16 million units each year sales fell in 2009 to a level not seen since 1982 despite the fact that the population of the usa had grown by 43


percent over that period of time from 233 million to roughly 333 million people and this happened despite normal circumstances surrounding production that's why i say it was a correction in 2008 and 2009 to make up for excesses of the previous years leading up to that crisis but a glut of cars and houses purchased on bad credit paid for by people's retirement funds which invested in bad debt and crashed the market once it turned out people couldn't pay the money back is far from the problem we are facing


right now today because the problem is that too many people right now have money and there's nothing for us to buy and that's what happens when you give everybody free money to stay at home everybody has money but nothing was produced for people to exchange for that money and this is where the devil is in the details because looking at the job openings data again we can see that where in 2008 the market shed 60 of openings we today have never had this many openings for jobs ever work is available now i understand the


quality of those jobs may be questionable but there is no doubt that people who need a job should be able to find one without much of a problem which wasn't true in 2009 and remember the car data that i showed you let's take another look at that despite a massive amount of money on the market and large number of job openings sales are down way down and for any of you who used your stimi to put a down payment on a new ford bronco then you know the reason isn't because the market doesn't need them or


can't afford them it's because we can't actually finish them or deliver them because as is covered in this article from road and track they're just sitting in parking lots in michigan unfinished because there aren't enough semiconductors chips which control vital operations in the car's computer to go around and the reason i like this car example so much to illustrate the difference between the 2008 recession and what it is we're experiencing today is because of this


when you examine the period when the financial crisis really kicked off at the beginning of 2009 inventories of cars were at highs because nobody was buying and production was relatively normal as i said before whereas right now we have never had such low inventories because again production and delivery of cars is so disrupted and anybody who's tried to buy a used car recently will certainly be able to tell you that used cars the price of used cars has been impacted directly because of this and


this in my opinion proves my point we've had two years of slow down a global pajama party where everyone got to stay at home little got made inventories were depleted with money people got for free and now we're starting to pay the real price for those bad policies it's why companies like major on online retailer alibaba here take a look at the stock price over the last year companies like this have lost more than half of their value and if your main purpose is to facilitate the sales of goods produced


in china online and chinese factories look like this with a limited workforce having to sleep on the factory floor to avoid c19 it's no wonder their results are suffering there's not enough to sell and this has created the perfect economic storm not only for inflation but also a weak silver price because in our latest series of videos we've established how important industrial demand is for the price of silver here's that table once again with the corrected percentages this time we


are now in a situation as i said before where half of silver demand is industrial and 65 of industrial demand is for electrical and electronics needs much of which again is produced here in china where production is a mere fraction of what it used to be pre c19 and the problem is big in fact it is huge here's an article from cnbc from may 4th saying that companies are really feeling the pinch not only on production from china but also consumer demand due to the fact that well because chinese people are out of


work right now due to the lockdowns they're not really getting the full compensation that they could expect therefore consumer demand for goods has subsequently also gone down and this is where the story gets spicy for silver people and i am going to open your eyes to something that if you didn't know before you absolutely need to know and it's all about apple samsung lg and video and other companies that spawned the semiconductor in smart gadget revolution because all too often we focus on green energies and how


silver demand is going up because of green energies and then in my comments section of my videos when i focus on that i hit a bunch of comments saying electric cars will never be popular and that they're only for rich people but the growth of the green sector is still only a small portion of the growing industrial demand that we see for silver right now and to be honest we give too little attention to how the smartphone and smart gadget revolution and the semiconductors we use in those gadgets


and other things have impacted the price of silver from the day we got hooked to those products because maybe you know it maybe you don't know it but smartphones and basically all other smart gadgets including anything that needs a semiconductor uses silver and it's a lot more than you may think zooming in on phones for a second in this article from the bbc they told their readers just how much silver a smartphone uses and in a typical iphone that amount is 0.34 grams of silver now that might not seem like a whole lot


but consider this in 2018 the world purchased 1 billion 556 million smartphones that was in one year if you take the amount of silver in each phone multiply it by the number of phones sold and convert that into troy ounces that gives you a total of 17 million 120 257 troy ounces of silver used in phones sold in 2018 alone and at an average price of silver in 2018 of 15.71 cents per troy ounce that means nearly 270 million dollars of silver was used in phones sold in 2018 and this is going to blow your mind when


you take a look at the price of silver since 2000 here's the chart here which was flailing around four and five dollars per troy ounce at the beginning of the 2000s you really begin to see the price take off here in 2006 which is not a coincidence because that ladies and gentlemen is when the first smartphones and smart gadgets like smart tvs went into production before being launched for commercial consumption in 2007 and it was those gadgets that revolutionized the computers in our cars smart watches


and many other things that use semiconductors all of which again need silver for the efficient transmission of power within the device and how all this ties in to what you need to know about the big silver price recovery that is bound to happen is this c19 restrictions created and continue to create a situation where production is not meeting the needs of the market we have established that already with cars but it's not only cars it's smartphones which have seen a considerable sales drop and long delivery lead times since


c19 started it's playstations which anyone with kids know that this particular model has been very difficult to get since its launch in november 2020 and the key thing i am looking out for right now is when will china fully open up their manufacturing sector because until that happens i promise you the price of silver is going to languish meaning that it's it's going to suffer but it's not all doom and gloom because this has created a situation where let's bring up the silver supply and demand table one


more time it's created a situation where demand is building and when i say demand i'm talking specifically about demand for consumer goods that use silver inside of them and we are already running a silver deficit according to these numbers from the silver institute and you can see that here and here meaning we do not have enough silver right now to fully meet demand of production and once production starts to catch up slowly with the pent-up consumer demand of goods that actually the market needs to deliver you're going


to see the demand for silver subsequently get higher and higher so in order to help you all understand how i see the market and how i see the situation with silver kind of developing over the next couple years i've put together this timeline which we are going to use to base our assumptions on when calculating how the price of silver is going to rebound over the next couple years and after we've covered this timeline i will take you through the calculations of prices on how i think the price of


silver is going t o react over this period of time so if we assume things in china return to normal by q4 this year meaning from october 2022 they will have to start producing a massive backlog of goods which i assume is approximately 20 of global demand meaning a total demand increase of 25 for these goods over a two-year period for 2023 and 2024. this will undoubtedly start to exert pressure on the price of silver by roughly q2 2023 creating more competition for physical metal thus driving the price up


triggering a reaction from mining companies which won't likely materialize sooner than the end of 2023 with peak price likely to be achieved by q1 2024 and the miner's reaction being felt by the market by q3 2024 as we settle into a new price corridor coming off of the peak price i'll call that a local top but before we get into the price calculations i want to give a disclaimer and say these are just estimations based heavily upon the timeline that i've just presented to you should something happen to that timeline


should something change get moved up get pushed back it will impact the timing of when these things will likely take place additionally the price targets i am setting are my best guesses as to how the market will react it's not a perfect science i don't have a crystal ball nobody has a crystal ball but i think these numbers are worth looking at so please pay careful careful attention to these numbers because it's a lot to take in so the first thing we have to do is estimate the impact


increased demand for silver will have on the price of silver and for that i have done this calculation i have compared the demand of silver in 2019 versus 2021. i have purposely excluded 2020 because it was a very specific year i i don't think it's a year that we we can actually use in order to prepare an accurate calculation of this so here we can see that the demand of silver rose seven percent from 2019 to 2021 and that has triggered a 55 percent increase in the price of silver therefore my assumption moving forward


is that for every one percent increase in the price of silver we can estimate a 7.8 increase in the price of silver and as i stated before i expect there to be a 25 increase in the demand of silver for industrial use only and i assume all other things in this calculation will remain the same for the purpose of the exercise so since industrial demand for silver is about 50 percent of silver demand and that will increase by 25 percent we can assume total silver demand will increase by about 12 and a half percent


if we then take that 12 and a half percent and multiply it by by our 7.8 price multiplier that means in this period we may see silver run up in price by 97.5 percent giving us a new price of approximately thirty nine dollars fifty cents by the second half of 2023 if everything in our timeline holds true and given the fact that we know silver the price of silver can be manipulated downwards by at least 24 which we established back in our price manipulation video and let's use that number to be conservative in our


estimations and where the price of silver is to go i'd much rather under promise to you guys watching this video rather than over promise a price but we could reach a local top as high as 52 dollars per ounce by q1 2024 before settling back into our new corridor where i assume the upper resistance could be close to that 39.50 level now this is the time i want to ask you all for your feedback in the comments section what do you think of my pricing model and the assumptions i've put together for this do you think i'm


close do you think i'm way off did you like this content let me know in the comments because your feedback is driving this channel forward if you haven't left a like yet i would appreciate that it took a lot of work to get this video done i did a lot of research and basically i did this video based on your requests from the comments section in my last video so make some noise for the algorithm and that will ensure also that more people see this video and learn about this very important topic


and that's it for this video if you have any questions also leave them in the comments section i am very active in the comments section for everybody who left me a comment in the last video you know i replied to your comment in one way or another so i will respond to you if you take the time to respond to the video with that i thank you all for making it to the end of the video and as always i wish you all health i wish you success and happiness and i hope to see you in the next one adios for now