hey everyone welcome to my channel and welcome back to my subscribers this is bald guy money i am bald guy and today you asked for it you are going to get it because today we are talking about silver and how the silver market is manipulated before we get into it please take a moment right now to hit the like button this feedback allows me to know that this is a topic that you like and it's also feedback for youtube to let the algorithm of youtube know that this is something you think other people


should know about too and also remember drop us a comment in the comment section i will reply to your comment because your opinions and ideas on this topic in particular are very important to me and last thing none of this is advice what i do here is i present facts i back them up with data with the hope that more people will convert their cash into assets which is the point of the channel right i simply show you the menu it's your decision to decide what to order so ever since i started stacking silver


many years ago i have heard people in the community say the price of silver is manipulated i see it repeated in videos online i hear it from casual silver stackers it's pretty common knowledge to be frank but what's less common knowledge is exactly who does it how it's done and to what level it actually impacts the price of silver and that's what this video is going to take you through today so to start our journey we're going to take a quick look at the price of silver over the past


five years and you can see here we are just around the 23 dollar mark per ounce and trading in a pretty tight corridor between 22 and 29 and we've been trading in that corridor since about mid 2020 and before the run-up in price which i will explain shortly we were also trading in a tight corridor between 14 and 19 and that was right before the c-19 pandemic hit and that was actually going back for quite a few years and funny enough if you divide the lower number in the band by the upper number in both


scenarios you get a number very close to 0.74 indicating that the price bands are nearly identical but the point is that price corridors especially on less volatile assets just like we're seeing here on silver are fantastic places to make a lot of money and the reason is because tops and bottoms become predictable and professional traders know when to go long which means they know when to buy the asset and exactly when to go short meaning they bet on the price to go down by borrowing the asset


then they sell it for cash immediately with the hope that the price will go down so they can buy it back later at a lower price and give it back to the lender and of course in the meantime they pocket the price difference in contrast here are exxon mobil and coca-cola which are both blue chip stocks with strong brands and strong product demand you can clearly see that stocks like these have not traded in such tight bands over the last five years like silver has and please check other stocks too you


will not find really anything else that is trading quite like silver has been trading and that goes for commodities too here just take a look at these for example here's lumber this is what lumber looks like way different chart than silver even when you're talking about gold here is gold so not even gold is trading in tight bands like silver has been trading and finally take a look at natural gas another very important commodity again none of these are trading in a tight band like silver is


so clearly this must be proof of manipulation right i mean if only silver is behaving this way in anything i mean any stocks any other commodities are not behaving this way clearly it must mean that all of the theories out there about the manipulation levels on silver must be true right well in my opinion the answer is very complicated and i'll give for now at least a yes and no answer because there are a lot of details that you need to be aware of when it comes to exactly how silver is manipulated and what it means


to be manipulated so the price of silver like all commodities is heavily based on supply and demand of the physical metal and most analysts agree let's bring up that chart one more time that this spike here in 2020 was caused by something i have covered in one of my earlier videos which is the rising demand for the physical metal to back this up i want to show you a chart i've used in the past it's now updated and i think a lot of you will find it very interesting and it shows the changing supply and demand for


silver since 2012 with a forecast also for 2020 as i have pointed out to you all before the supply of silver is relatively flat at roughly 1 billion ounces per year and that has typically met demand as you can see here in this line which also shows that the demand for silver has been around 1 billion ounces per year but if you remember from the first time i showed this chart i was saying that the demand for silver is rising there are various reasons for that specifically the demand for silver in


the rise of green energies but that's a topic for another video and what i said in that video is that i expect the demand for silver to reach 1.5 billion ounces by 2026 lifting the price of the commodity significantly by that time to levels above the 50 per ounce mark well sure enough you can see here that the first part of what i was saying is actually coming true and i'm not trying to pat myself on the back but the silver institute is projecting that we will hit a high in demand for silver this year


surpass surpassing the 1.1 billion ounce mark which is a 25 increase versus the demand we saw at the height of c19 in 2020 and this has put mines under a lot of strain to meet the increasing demand due to a lot of the work and logistical disruptions that have been caused recently by really a plethora of factors but specifically ones caused by the c19 pandemic and the fallout of that pandemic in fact the strain is so high that you can see in this chart that it is projected we will be running a silver


deficit for the second consecutive year this year and you can see on the chart i have marked the deficits with blue arrows here so since 2012 there have been four deficits half of them being in the last two years and what i specifically want you to pay attention to is the fact that these deficits are getting higher whereas for example in 2013 which was the highest one previous to the last two years we had a deficit of about 31 million ounces of silver now you're seeing in the last two years


an average of about 60 billion ounces in silver short in supply versus what the market is actually demanding with respect to physical supply so that explains why the price jumped the way it did in 2020 but that's only part of the story and it doesn't explain exactly why we're trading in such tight corridors which is where i think the real manipulation actually comes in because apart from the physical market of silver that exists there is also a large paper market for silver and that is where the


manipulation is actually easy to be done on the paper market through a method called spoofing and spoofing is the act of creating fake buying or selling orders in large amounts to create the illusion that the price of something is either going to go up or it's going to go down and this is all demand driven um price manipulation so it's basically spoofing is showing fake demand or fake selling pressure in the market we're going to get into the details in a second but what you absolutely must know


about spoofing is that the number one party kind of accused regularly of spoofing in the precious metals market specifically in the silver market is jp morgan and i'm sure that for many of you watching are more um are more educated and savvy viewers that probably doesn't come as a surprise that i'm saying that but what i'm about to say might surprise you because jp morgan's hand in all of this is very important in unraveling the truth about exactly to what level the price of silver is manipulated now


before i continue i have to say that jp morgan denies manipulating the metals market and i am not saying that they do it i am just saying how it would work if if they were doing it okay let's let's be very clear on that that's the message to jp morgan's lawyers so the most famous recent case of spoofing was settled by jp morgan back in 2020 in the end the case was settled for 920 million dollars without having to admit any guilt at all this is what i ha traditionally call in business i call this an f off payment


which means here's some money f off and leave me alone let me continue doing what i was doing and what jpmorgan was accused of doing was exactly this they created fake offers to sell silver in the paper market which created the illusion of a decrease in demand thus reducing the price of silver if we take a look at it on a basic supply and demand chart here's what that looks like and i've shown this before what these fake selling orders do is artificially makes the demand look like it's dropping


which causes the price to go down armed with that information any savvy trader can short the price of silver making money on the downswing and even go long on silver or buy silver after the price dumps to the level that you assumed it would it would dump to and ride the wave back up once the fake sales orders have been canceled thus making money on silver on the way down and making money on silver on the way back up and coming back to our silver chart let's bring it up one more time i surmise that those tactics are a large


element of what keeps the price of silver trading so tightly which traders at jp morgan for example they can use a tight trading band like this they can use it all day to open shorts on silver and as i said make money on the way down and once it hits that lower part of the ban they clear out their orders and the price bounces back up they can either ride the wave back up making money on the way back up or simply open new shorts at the top repeating the process all over again so how is it that a major bank like


jpmorgan could be able to hide these activities from regulators so effectively well to answer that question you have to understand that jp morgan is a major player in the silver market how big are they exactly well when doing research for this video i found it reported in multiple outlets that jp morgan holds at least 600 million ounces of physical silver which translates to a roughly 14 billion dollar long position on physical silver and having such a large long position on anything for a large institution like jp


morgan usually comes along with having some corresponding short positions it's nothing new it's nothing nefarious and these short positions are called short hedges and they act as an insurance policy if the value of their long position goes down suddenly and by a large amount and this is where things start to get a little gray because if you have massive long and short positions on silver increasing them any which way may not seem suspicious it just may seem like business as usual but it has the power


to move the market significantly and we see this often for example on bitcoin and it's referred to as whale games and you don't really hear to it referred to in the silver market very often but that is exactly what it is and these are games played by large holders of any asset and they use them effectively to shake the market to move it in a direction that is financially beneficial for them and what's even more noteworthy is that in the case of silver unlike the transparent blockchain ledger system of


bitcoin these shorts do not have to be settled in physical silver so jpmorgan doesn't actually have to dip into their stack or purchase silver on the on the open market to cover them they settle them in u.s dollars in the paper silver market which allows them to engage in a practice if they're doing this of course which is called naked shorting and how a naked short works is it's just like a regular short where you borrow something and promise to give it back at a future time but in this instance you


never actually intend on giving what you borrowed back in this instance silver what you do is you intend to settle your debt on the basis of cash so what's very important in understanding this is that settling your shorts in this way means that you have basically tricked the system into thinking the supply of silver is much larger than it is since your dollars are acting as silver in the settlement of the short and we all know the more of something there is the less valuable it is just ask the federal reserve how how that's


going with u.s dollars right now they thought they could print trillions into existence without affecting the value of it well we're seeing that it play out in the market right now with high levels of inflation and that's exactly what these shorts are effectively doing in the silver market so now to get to the nitty gritty of it how much are these practices actually influencing the price of silver and you're going to want to pay very careful attention to this i'm going to present you with two


scenarios one which is my scenario which assumes the manipulation happens within these corridors and jpmorgan is profiting on the short term and high volume trades that are happening within those corridors i'm also going to show you a second scenario which takes into account a mainstream but less popularly held opinion that morgan actually has a 3 billion ounce short out against their 600 million ounce stack which is a massive naked short manipulation of the market and we're going to cover both of those


and exactly what impact they would have on the price of silver if either of them were 100 true and in the end i'll let you choose where you think the price of silver is or should be but i want to make it clear that i think the first scenario is probably more realistic so just before i show you those numbers i want to show you this and this was my estimation of the real spot price for silver from july 2021 and back then when i did this i estimated it to be around 30 per ounce so basically at the upper


level of the trading ban that i've been showing throughout the video and since then from my point of view not much has changed fundamentally for silver and this number remains my north star for assessing the true value of silver today but we're here to talk about manipulation scenarios and the first manipulation scenario which i call the bald guy scenario here it is now it's not the most scientific thing i've ever done on the channel but i do think it gives us a realistic view of


what the price of silver would be or could be if there was absolutely no manipulation on the market and if everything had to be settled in physical silver so we've taken the upper and lower price in the current trading bands and determined to what level a silver whale would be able to manipulate the price in the downward direction luckily the upper price is very close to my fair price so i am comfortable assuming that a whale could manipulate the price down by 24 as seen in the difference in step two


shown here so if a whale can manipulate the price of silver down by 24 in this band we have to assume that from the high in the band it could also be manipulated down by that same amount so 24 and if that is true we go from 29 as the upper price band of silver today to an unmanipulated price of silver as high as 38 dollars per ounce now if we look at the extreme in this world of silver and assume that jp morgan has a short open of 3 billion ounces against the silver market which is three times the world's annual supply


and that they are settling these naked shorts with u.s dollars artificially keeping the price of silver down well that would look like this we start with the range on the left of 22 to 29 which is that band we've been trading in we've been talking about it basically throughout the entire video next is we assume the short on the market is 75 of the entire market since we have 1 billion ounces in supply every year we've established that earlier on in the video and another 3 billion ounces in


the jpmorgan short that means only 25 of the market is settled in legitimate silver meaning the real need could be as much as four times higher than that bringing us to a new range of 88 dollars in the lower band and as high as 116 dollars per ounce of silver in the upper band now please take these scenarios with a grain of salt because the point of this video is not to tell you exactly where i think the price of silver is going i've done another video on that and i encourage you all to go back and watch


that if you haven't seen it yet the purpose of this video was to explain or show how manipulation works in silver what i think is a realistic understanding of that manipulation and what could happen if some of the more extreme theories in the silver in the silver stacking world and accusations against against major silver manipulators actually turned out to be true i do want to add that we are getting dangerously close to the lower band in our trading corridor and there are a lot of headwinds coming for silver right now


associated with the recession we have just entered and this recession will likely impact the demand for silver negatively in the immediate short term so basically over the next year to 18 months so if you liked this video and want to follow up on where i show where we could be going with the price of silver if we break that 22 dollar level for silver at the bottom of our current trading band i want you to let me know right now in the comments i will make that video for me if you request it then that's it for today i thank you all


so much for watching links to my sources in the description happy belated easter to all of my orthodox friends and happy aid to all of those who are celebrating aid this week as always i wish you all success i wish you all happiness i do hope to see you in the next one cheers