Gold news

 [Music] I'm Charlotte McLoud with investing news.com and here today with me is Craig Hemy publisher of tfmetalsreport tocom it's been around for 14 years now and he tells me that he has seen some things so it's going to be a great discussion today thank you so much for being here Charlotte it's my pleasure uh it's great to get to know you you do great work and it's h fun to be on your channel for the first time so thanks for the invitation yes I'm really excited to finally be

speaking with you I've followed you for quite some time now on other channels so hoping that it will be a good discussion I was thinking I think many of our audience members will probably be familiar with you but just because it is our first time talking I thought maybe you could start by giving me a sense of where you see gold in its current cyle well it has been an interesting um well it's been an interesting 14 years as you said uh when you make gold and silver your soulle focus for the last 14 years

you see some stuff and you don't have to you know don't have to have it be your soul Focus for very long before you go you know this is not like anything else this this stuff trades in some unusual patterns um and so anyway we've we we' had that massive rally 13 14 years ago into 2011 then we all kind of wandered the desert for four or five years and finally started turning higher again about 16 rallied that in 2019 and then the covid kicked in and everything else and we put in those

highs for gold and silver in the summer of 2020 and then just went sideways in a Range the good thing about being in a price range for that long is becomes clear to just about everybody that has an interest in the metals of what's going on you know it's like oh boy silver breaks down below 20 oh watch out or gold gets above 2100 you know similarly boy that's a breakout so when you get a long pattern like that of consolidation got a lot of eyes on it and so what we've been waiting for for

the last year and a half would was this breakout when would this actually come in Gold I thought it would be tied to the fed and the initiation of cuts and all that kind of stuff and it looked like we were getting there late last year and then you know that all those rate cut expectations start to get trimmed away in January and February but then boom all of a sudden gold took off and a lot of it was due to that breakout because we had that I think about Friday the 1st of March if I remember right

gold surged about $40 finished up that week I think it was 2090 on a clear breakout and then they had the whole weekend for people to see it and what happened we came back the next week it shot another $100 higher as people chased in chased after it getting the momentum and has since added on another whatever $150 $200 on top of that and so now we're kind of more in the kind of pullback and consolidation period maybe we have been for about a little over a week and that's normal that's that's how

it works um So currently I yeah you got to feel pretty good that we finally broken out that's on everybody's radar and all the long-term charts look particularly solid but with gold and silver uh especially with their price they're never going to go just straight up you know the people would say oh yeah you know to the Moon 3000 just doesn't work that way and so we just kind of go that we're the typical pattern of two steps forward one step back and then and the way things look that should continue for a while

which is good okay okay really good to get that long-term overview and I have a couple of follow-up questions the first I think is going to be if we look back to that breakout at the beginning of March you mentioned how you know everyone was kind of expecting that gold breakout might be tied to what's going on with the fed and interest rates but ultimately that that doesn't really seem to be what triggered it so for you what was behind that rise a really interesting kind of Confluence of events and again

ultimately it led to the breakout which led to the surge of new money new cash you know an excitement and that's not a typical I'm I I first got my stock broker license 35 years ago and I spent six or first seven six or seven years of my career to stock broker and this is true about everything Charlotte I mean anything that makes a new all-time high anything usually that generates some excitement you know whether it's a tech stock or commodity or anything and people jump on board you they wow look

at that you know they chase it higher average it's not kind of a rule of th you get about a 10% rally on top of that above that old all-time high so for my last couple annual forecasts expecting this breakout I thought we'd get you know through 2100 tack on another 10% you know that initial Target be about 2,300 or so again what was going to set it off though that was the key what caught everybody what set it off and caught people by surprise left in wondering what happened is we were right

at the top of that rage in late February and on the last day of February we closed higher like about 2050 I think that was the 13th or 14th week in a row that gold had closed above $2,000 on the spot chart it was a new high monthly close all these things going on and then on Friday March the 1 a normal day we're up about $10 and one of the fit well I call him goons one of the FED Governors one of the FED goons um I'm trying to remember which one it was Waller maybe anyway he's given a

speech middle of Friday morning March the 1 and his speech was what's how what's the FED going to do from here how do they manage this going forward and he made two points in his speech that day he said one I think the FED needs to kind of run off its Holdings on the long end of the curve and bu the short end and kind of flatten out the Y curve which in its own right should lead to a recession but more importantly he said if we do that and we lessen our Holdings long in that will give us room for the

next asset purchase program what did he say he said the next asset purchase wait another QE program boom gold went up $30 in about I don't know two hours that morning and finished up that Friday at the well we're were talking about 2095 2097 something like that all these breakouts and so it was just kind of this Confluence of events that just happened to kind of work in Gold's favor and then it took on a life of itself own so that's what led to it that's kind of why it caught Everybody by surprise just

because of where gold was when Waller made that speech and now uh here we are here we are yes I remember I remember that day very clearly because we were just heading off to pdac and we had all these interviews scheduled over the weekend so we're waiting to see what happened and it was it a very interesting time so thank you for going into that and I'm wondering for you so what are the key factors you're watching right now for the gold price because as you mentioned things have kind of Pann

out with with different surprise things influencing the price so what are you focusing on right now well since this breakout happened and we got to 2300 um then a couple of kind of ancillary things have taken place last few weeks we had this ramp up of of geopolitical concer and a bit excuse me and kind of a safe haven bid that came into the gold future really around the world because you know what's going to happen in the Middle East and that d drove us up over 2400 twice and kind of painted a little bit of a double top on

the chart you know you could at least make that case now I mean it went up there on geopolitical concerns but nonetheless the chart's the chart on top of that you had this kind of what appears to be a pickup of maybe retail speculation in China where uh the Shanghai uh futures exchange came in and said ah we're going to Tamp this down by raising margins and limiting the size of positions that people can take and that kind of finally took hold and ran into some profit taking back on Sunday and

Monday and that's when we had goldf whatever you know once that that tumbling momentum happened there it tumbled into Asia then we got on comx and more selling and profit taking came in comx had its own um couple of margin hikes so all of a sudden that you bought at 2400 now we're 2350 and the margins are going up just get me out you know that and then just get this kind of cascade down for $24 so uh from here in the short term and we're in this kind of consolidation phase which is fine because like I said

gold never goes up in a straight line It Go two steps forward one step back we get this Rush of speculative money every buys it until it runs out of momentum and then it tips over breaks a moving average that kind of thing speculative money comes back out you get like a 50% pullback and then something happens and you go back up and you make a new higher high and then you come back down and make a new higher low you know and that's kind of how bull markets and the precious metals play out and so we're

just kind of in that pullback phase at this point what what we might need next is this uh demon demonstrable whatever the right word is slowdown in the US economy we've gotten some kind of a little shakier economic data lately I think the main thing for people to watch especially into next week with the next fomc meeting is that chairman Powell is said he said well I don't you know inflation is our number one thing but I'll put down on the back burner if we get if I sense any weakness in the labor

market we don't want to be too late in cutting and he he spec he said that twice after the last EP epy meeting so he's going to be out there again next week he'll probably reiterate that probably then we get another jobs report on Friday the 3 if we get some hints then that oh no wait a second maybe raid cuts are possible again you know because now everybody's starting to think maybe we're going to get a raid hike um if rate possible rate Cuts come back in the picture we're already up here at $2,300

that could be the next spark to get us you know that next leg higher so that's what I would well that was a long answer Charlotte but hopefully I painted a picture what people should be watching for no that that was great I think there's there's some familiar factors in there that I think yeah we'll keep watching those to see how it goes so I wanted to ask a little bit more about the geopolitical angle so of course we've got all these tensions going on in the Middle East but you know another

factor that I've been hearing for a long time as an underlying reason for gold's price rise is dollarization and going back to Russia being kicked out of the Swift system and now I'm just going to check my notes and make sure that I've got it right here I believe we've got the US looking to potentially allocate Russian assets to US Banks in US Banks to Ukraine so I wonder your thoughts on that and how that could could play out there a really bad idea um as most politicians go it maybe feels good you

know oh we're going to stick it to those Russians right and there's precedent in the past you lose a war right you maybe get stuck paying reparations for the damage you cause I mean look at World War I as an example problem is this I the war is still being fought right and so that's what makes this unprecedented um I have I remember at the end of 2022 and into 2023 when it would come up and you we do like a year review or interviews with people I'd say that the war is a big deal don't get me wrong but

the most significant thing that happened in 2022 with the most biggest long-term ramifications is what you mentioned first weekend of March in 2022 the war has been going on a couple weeks the US kicks Russia out of Swift and freezes about $350 billion dollar worth of their foreign currency reserves that were not held in Russia well that's a pretty big deal if you're Russian or Chinese or you name the country you know what the US basically said is you either play ball with us you do whatever we you know we

think is okay we're going to just cut you off with the knees for the financial system well if I mean we may not you know look at something China is doing or India is doing or Russia is doing for that matter whatever as being in the US's best interest but they may be looking at it as their own best interest you and so inevitably you know China or someone is going it we're gonna at some point the Americans aren't going to be happy with us either because we got to pursue our own policy and what happens

if they cut us off which they now shown they'll do so that sped up it's like you reach down you know like on Wheel of Fortune when Pat sjck reaches down and he gives the wheel a big shove that's kind of what that Did It sped up this whole dollarization thing because these countries look around and go wait a second we can see how this is going to go we better have an alternative in place for when you know if there America does even more of this kind of stuff well now they started floating these trial balloons about six

months ago about well you know if Congress isn't going to give any more money to Ukraine well why don't we just take some of is Russian money and give it you know and it feels good as a policy you know like I said well we'll just take it from but boy what a terrible precedent it sets in terms of rule of law and international monetary system and abuse of This Global Reserve currency status that the US has and so by doing what the US did uh last week and a few days ago by Now setting in

motion to at least see some of that not much like eight or 10 billion dollars but Nel last kind of opens the door for the in countries to do the same that's old Pat just gave the wheel another big old spin um one last thing about that Charlotte a lot of times I'll hear people interviewed or I read stuff on Twitter or whatever that make this dollarization thing thing seem like it's like this binary Choice like it's either a or b you're either the US currency or it's this and there's like there's a one

point in the middle that marks a no it's not it by offering this currency which they'll ultimately do all it does is it draws demand away from the US dollar okay you you have a different platform you you don't need the dollars as much anymore people will still be used them we'll still be used in the US I mean they'll still be used in the US but the demand for it globally will go down and it's like any other good that we learned about an econ 101 you've got a supply curve and you got a demand curve and

where they meet is the price and if the supply is going up because of all the debt and the demand for it is going down it it equates to a lower price and that's what this dollarization thing ultimately doeses it makes a lower value of all the different Fiat currencies especially the dollar okay sorry sorry to send you off on a little tangent there but I think those are important points for for everyone to keep in mind that's what I do man I my ADHD kicking in I just go off on all these there so anyway there you go okay I'll

bring us I'll bring us back to Gold again so so you mentioned we're in a pullback period for gold we'll hope to post this in the next couple of days we'll see where the price is at that point but this is natural so for you we need to have these pullbacks before we go higher I think um people are looking ahead to 2024 and they do wonder what the price potential is so curious about your thoughts as we go up in this step fashion well now that we've come this far I mean you have to start looking at potentially

what the next goal would be there are a lot of technical targets that all kind of line up around 2650 or 2700 I mean if you just even if you just pull up an old logarithmic chart of the price of gold and connect the 1980 High to the 2011 high and just draw a line that's about 2700 as well so that's the next Target in my forecast this year I didn't think we'd break through 2300 until late summer early fall and then you'd run up and then you get the inevitable pullback well we've already

broken through we've already run up and now we're in the pullback and it's only April so there's definitely room to extend even higher let's just say maybe we can finish the year 24 2500 you know that would be a pretty good year that'd be 20% be double what the average has been since the you know the the turn of the century so that would probably be a feasible Target at least he could always be better than that but I think that would at least be to me that sounds manageable like in

workable that does that does sound reasonable Okay so we've got a pretty solid look at what's going on with gold right now and I have to make sure to ask you about the gold stocks as well because generally I think people would expect or hope for them to outperform gold which maybe in some cases we see that happening but as a group not just yet so what are you seeing among the gold stocks what what do you think maybe causing that disconnect and when did they perhaps catch up well the mining Shares are just I've

sworn them off multiple occasions in 14 years um and then they're driving people crazy again you know you I I give you I give you a good example you know the people want to buy a Mining share you know mining company they'll call up their broker the broker said I know maybe uh you know where you are in Vancouver people know more about you the mining sector but like in the US they'll call their stock broker their stock broer buy them Newmont right baric well you can pull up a chart the shares of

Newmont and barck are at the same level they were 20 years ago and the price of gold is five times higher and so what that means in the end for anybody that wants to try to make some get some leverage and you know make a little couple extra bucks by trading the mining shares I mean I on my sight's always just been about physical metal and preparing for you know the end of this debt cycle you only make a few extra bucks the mining shares you got to be really smart about it and that's hard

man even I I sit there and grade and GRS per ton and you know all this stuff I that's I I have my own experts I turn to and that's what people should do they I mean you've got to be selected you've got to know uh you know the company's got to be streaming they got to manage your cost really well they've got to have reasonably high grade that they can get at so they're all ins staining cost are low point is you're going to be the mining sector and you and you you're

smart about it you can do okay when most people are are being frustrated you know because they just own the GDX or something like that um the only other thing I'd add to that then Charlotte is I'd invite anybody um to inspect this on their own go to a chart like a barchart.com is a site where you can put two things together um and and plot them together over time and you can see if there's a correlation I don't know why but one of the tightest correlations to the GDX a big G you know

gold minor ET is actually silver doesn't make any sense right I mean I think go down to like the 14th largest holding to find a silver company but it is I mean it's there your eyes don't deceive you and so if you want to get the mining Shar is to really perk up and get a flow of funds and see the GDX get above 33 and go back to 40 and 45 you're probably going to need silver to break out and start trading with a three handle uh that day is coming you know so the good news is that means you

know you haven't the train hasn't left the station yet but it's just an odd peculiarity of life in 2024 that if you want the gold miners to go up you're going to need silver to go up uh to make it happen right and maybe this is a good pathway into talk about what's happening with silver as well so with silver we tend to hear silver follows gold although it lags behind is silver performing as you would expect right now given what gold is doing well it is is moved to catch up at

least um you know with I remember telling people when gold first got above 2100 and then went to 2200 and then you know started moving to 2300 silver was still like 24 and I've been talking a few people off the ledge by say look if you believe Gold's going higher which I do and a lot of people do silver is eventually going to go just by virtue of the gold silver ratio Gold's not going to $2,500 an ounce and silver is going to stay at 25 and have the ratio be at 100 to1 that might only be 80 to1 but silver is then

going to get you know it's going to break out so silver finally did kind of rush to catch up over last three weeks got 29 uh talking about charting I'd invite anybody to pull up a chart of spot silver over the last three and a half years find the times when it has gotten to 29 and notice how quickly it was reversed in the calendar year in the summer of 2020 to the summer of 2021 it got up to 29 three times the very next day each time it got a big massive red candle uh and shoved right back down uh

just in the last two weeks we've You' seen that same phenomenon so there's a little line of the sand it has to cross so you may need gold to keep going to get it to where that finally happens and the good news is when I said about gold and how it got above 2100 then added 10% and get this Rush of excitement because it broke out and made a new all-time high but most importantly it broke out of that long that long range silver hasn't done that yet silver is still roughly it's at the top end up near 28

but it's still kind of in that same range that it's been in now coming up on four years so when silver breaks out then you're going to get this big huge surge you know to 34 35 36 pretty quick just like what we saw with gold go from 2100 2300 when that happens it'll drag the shares along and so again the good news of all this it hasn't happened yet so there's still time for people to kind of position themselves accordingly uh to profit from it that that is good news and I think

hope we're all familiar with the connection between gold and silver I've also heard you mention a connection between silver and copper which I thought was interesting and I wondered if you could go into that is that an industrial metal kind of thing is it like a byproduct production what what is going on there it is it's it's you it gets back to the you know algo hft dominated world that we live in now right I mean so much of daily volume and everything is now just computer driven

you know where the you the computers see a signal or a headline or whatever ever and then they respond they see the dollar go up so then they dump their gold you know that kind of thing well it would make sense that there'd be a correlation between copper and silver and there has been for decades but particularly now because they're both you know they're Industrial Metals uh they're both very good conductors of electricity you know there's this kind of green economy type trade that's out

there um well copper has some very interesting uh let's say Supply characteristics to it the amount of abovegr supply the amount has been levered particularly in China for trading instruments a little bit like silver here in the US and Copper's been moving up rather steadily over the last several months is it because the global economy is it you know the dollar has been rising there a lot of maybe it's just a simple uh kind of short above ground Supply shortage maybe anyway if copper keeps going up this is like gold

in that gold silver istio like you said Charlotte copper keeps going up uh starts moving up to what 10 ,000 a ton $5 a pound it's about 440 or 445 a pound now moves through the old highs from a couple of years ago it's going to get a tedit and it's probably going to go from 10,000 a pound to 12,000 a pound I've seen like Robert friedin talking about this well again that that's talking from going from 440 to 6 you're not going to have gold you know trading at whatever it's trading at that

point copper is trading at six and silver is still trading at 26 just the machines will won't let that happen and so keep an eye on copper 2 it could be the key to just kind of forcing silver up through 29 and into the 30s and it'll from there it take on a life of its own okay we will keep an eye on copper as well and as we're wrapping up I'm wondering if we can talk a little bit about strategies for investors right now because sentiment I see is is very interesting right now I'm not sure what

you're seeing I think people are not sure still if these are real moves we in gold and two of L extent silver and and maybe they're wondering how to play it so what are your thoughts keeping in mind that of course every person is is different well I'm gonna kind of go backwards on that answer um I mean I used to trade a lot and I don't really do it so much anymore I I actually in the last month I made some money trading uh silver options uh comc silver options but that's just luck I timed it right

you know I mean you just as easily have timed it wrong um I I advocate against trading to a great extent because it's almost like you know bet in sports you might be right a couple times in a row and you feel pretty good about yourself and then you just you know give it all back um what we talk about on my S side um is what I said kind of preparing for the inevitable collapse of this debt Bas Sy we called the great keian experiment because you reach a terminal phase and I think we're fing now getting there where

the debt is growing exponentially uh and so quickly that the amount of new Fiat money creation to Ser even just to service the debt it all just you know just begins to spend Tighter and Tighter and out of control your protection against that that sort of collapse has always been the ownership of physical gold and even and physical silver too I mean that's your Safe Harbor in a storm so people can trade this you know they all excited in day trade or they can maybe try to make a little long-term investment in a you

know really solid portfolio of mining shares and that sort of thing and that's fun at the end of the day what we really need to be worried about again is this this m debt-based monetary system that we're in and the dollar is the world's Reserve currency people think because it's always been that way for as long as they've been alive since 1944 then it's always going to be that way you know that tomorrow is always going to be yesterday but that's not the case it's

not always going to be that way and people need to be prepared for when that comes um so anyway so that's like I said anyway like I said kind of answer your question backward it's okay to trade and it's kind of fun and it can you know if you get the trend right you can profit handsomely in the end what we want to be doing is stacking physical metal in your own two hands you know don't own it at some bank and get a certificate for it that they say oh yeah come back in 90 days we'll get no take delivery store it

yourself own it yourself and that is your safe har through this financial storm and that's the big picture stuff that we have to be prepared for okay I think very solid point to end on but before I let you go I'll put it back to you in case you had any final thoughts or if you want to let people know where they could find you well I I guess the the thing I would leave everybody with this is what I do for a living I'm kind of everybody's eyes and ears um there's a small monthly fee to be a

part of my site but I kind of I got to watch this stuff every day uh five days a week you know and it's really almost a 247 thing to try to keep track of all the different moving parts that affect the precious metals this is a critical time I mean it's not just my side this is a critical time for people to follow your channel for example and get information you know that's outside of the mainstream but objective and and honest you know it's like this what we were just talking about

with the mainstream media if if you were only listening to Bloomberg or CNBC or you know what the BNN up in Canada and you get these analysts on there all day long we don't know why Gold's going up doesn't make sense to me real rates are still high I don't know well I just explain to everybody why and you so you have to have some honest objective trusted source of information you're just going to be lost because again we're in a period now that is we're tomorrow is not going to be like

yesterday so you got to be thinking outside the box and so uh I provide that it's the site that people that use my site um provide great information all day long too so I encourage everybody to check it out just tfmetalsreport domcom it's a fantastic Community people around the world all Poli we all the same boat so we might as well help each other out and uh then that's that's what we do there going forward like I said Keep an eye on Powell next week keep an eye on the jobs report because and he said

several times last month that if he sees the US job market weakening he will act preemptively and put the inflation fight on the back burner so if we on this the first Friday of May or the first Friday of June all of a sudden you get a big up you know all of a sudden employ unemployment is 4.2% or something like that the metals are going to Bo and so and You' be left why well keep an eye on that kind offf because that'll be the the the kind of the rationale for the next search forward okay thank you very much for for

going into all these things going on with gold and silver and I'll leave a link to your website as well in the video description so people can check it out if they want to learn more thank you very much hey Charlotte thank you it's pleasure getting a chance to visit with you feel feel for calling time I'm always happy to help oh I I will definitely I'll give you another call very soon and once again I'm Charlotte McLoud with investing news.com and this is Craig hempy thank you for watching if you like

this video make sure you subscribe to our Channel we'd also love to hear your thoughts so leave us a comment below we'll see you next time [Music]