[Music] I'm Charlotte McLoud with investingnews docomomo me great to have you on yeah good be back Charlotte thanks for having me really good to be talking to you I think it's a great day to be catching up with you given everything that's going on in gold and when I was getting ready for this I looked back to the last time we talked which was all the way back in May at that time I believe we had gold at or around the 2000 level and people were getting pretty excited and one thing you told us was that for you it
was the 20089 level that was the breakout zone so now that we're kind of up around that level we've seen a lot of interesting price activity the last few days I'm wondering what your take on gold is and if it has checked all the boxes to finally break out right yeah good good question well there's there's a lot to touch on um Let me let me share my screen here and give you a kind of a visual of of how I see things unfolding which if we just take a quick look at the daily chart we can see there has
been a huge runup in overnight trading way up it ran up uh to $2,152 and has now sold back down and is down around the 245 Mark which is a pretty pretty wild level when we it's good to kind of peel back the markets from a technical level standpoint and look at it from different point of views different time frames and the monthly chart is a really good high level view of of kind of where the market is when it comes to gold price if we go way back here and zoom out uh we can see the huge the last major super cycle to the upside
and then we've gone this multi-year consolidation and now we we started a new super cycle in 2019 and we're in this big consolidation still but really we're right at this threshold this this breakout level which I talked about you and I talked about it back in May this U 2089 level and every time we've seen gold get up to these levels we've seen we've seen a very big pullback the average over the last three pullbacks has been a about 177% and November was a really strong
close it it closed at a nice uh high level sor let me just go to the uh monthly chart that was the weekly sorry about that um this gives us a really good view of where we are in the grand scheme of things November was a nice strong close and this month for December is one of these long Wicks that has poked into new all-time highs for gold but it has been met with a lot of resistance a lot of selling pressure driving it back down now if this monthly bar for December was to stay like this it actually points to many months of
lower prices for gold and so we need to see how this month is going to hold out I mean we're only a couple trading days into December so this is a very young move uh in terms of what it's doing but when we take a look at from a granular level we look at the 10-minute chart so this is over the last um one two three four four and a half trading days we saw gold run up in overnight trading and right up here is where the breakout Zone took place and of course anyone who is betting against gold mean meaning
they're short gold they're Pro they're trying to profit from falling pricing when gold hits new all-time highs they're going to have to get out of those short positions because they're they're they're wrong in terms of the direction and so we saw a huge short covering squeeze I think in overnight trading and this drives the price up because investors who are short mean have to buy back the shares that they sold to try to profit from falling uh pricing so this caused a huge Feeding
Frenzy and on top of that there's other Traders and investors who say if it hits new all-time highs I'm going to buy a bunch of gold and so that's what created this technical move where literally as soon as we broke it it was this massive explosion of buying and of course when a trade is crowded meaning everyone is buying it or everyone is selling it everybody's doing the same thing it's typically an emotional um turning point in the market and of course we have seen since then gold has been selling off and
the volume keeps getting higher and higher in terms of the selling pressure so it is not a very bullish sign from a short-term standpoint for gold what's been going on so this really shows how a technical level when when broken triggers all kinds of orders and emotions for people to Pile in and have to do something and how the market has a way of kind of negating that move so this is what we're dealing with today is this huge move it was about a 5 perent rally it's down about 5 per from the
highs this morning which for gold is pretty insane big day for gold is typically about a percent and a half uh so something where it rallies 5 percent and sells off 5 percent is uh pretty pretty intense for for that whole commodity space for for gold so it's gonna be a very interesting month where where the gold chart closes out because it's at this point it's a very bearish looking chart at this point okay really interesting to have you go through the charts like that and and take a look at what could be coming
for gold so it sounds like we really need to get through December which is interesting because we're still just at the beginning of December so get through the month see what happens is there anything you can say about what may happen in 2024 maybe there are a couple of scenarios then that that we could lay out and to see what could be coming next year yeah so there there's a lot of things coming together more or less gold broke into a super cycle back here in 2019 the last time we saw something like
that was back over here in in around 2021 where gold started this huge uh super cycle to the upside uh and so I believe we're in this big super cycle still but these super Cycles last a very long time and there can be big pauses and pullbacks for example uh we saw a multi kind of year pause in Gold here just as the stock market was topping out in 2007 and just as the stock market was topping out and rolling over gold had a really strong push up as a defensive play and I feel as though we're actually
in a very similar scenario to that right now where Gold's starting to come back to life other than just this one day kind of blip on the chart which is very technical so we don't know if this is actually a bearish candle yet uh we could be starting to see the same thing we could see gold actually push and muscle its way higher um for a couple of months as the stock market potentially kind of gets closer to a major top and and starts to roll over in 2024 I do think we're going to see the economy
will roll over we're going to probably see a big correction in the stock market it's going to create massive selling across most asset classes and as the stock market sells off it'll probably pull gold back down just like we saw in the 2008 uh bare Market gold pulled down about 34% and so if you notice this is this this pullback that we had 2008 is really just a halfway point uh and then gold continued to take off after that so I feel as though this is going to be something very similar gold might end up
musling its way up moving higher for a few months but I do think it will be under pressure in due time uh just because of the way the economy and the stock market there'll be a financial reset but when we look at it from a a big standpoint picture we can look at the using Fibonacci extension we can look at the upside targets eventually I think we're going to see gold reach about 25 262700 uh to the upside based on just this recent rally this consolidation and then eventually I think it's going to
head higher so the long-term picture is really bullish um for gold and really we're just starting we're to me we're in the infancy stage of of another Super Cycle to the upside and what I think is going to actually help fuel this is let's take a quick look over at um at the dollar if we take a look at the dollar Index this is the the uh monthly chart well we had the dollar rally up during the 2000 kind of tech bubble crisis when there's a major stock market kind of Crash we see the dollar
push higher it was the same in 2008 we saw a huge rally in the dollar uh and where we are right now I think we're going to see the stock market eventually correct in 2024 money's going to flow back into the dollar it's going to get back up to these highs or the highs that we saw back in the tech bubble and that is going to put downward pressure on gold that'll be that little pause that pullback for gold that might last three six eight months or so and then I think the dollar is going to top and it's
going to head down as you can see here for a very long time that's going to be a huge I think um kind of Tailwind for gold silver miners I think that's when they start their next really really big rally um you and I've talked about this many times these are multi-year patterns it takes forever for these charts to unfold because each bar is a month uh but I think 2024 maybe the the second half of 2024 could be the year where finally as a precious metals Trader and investor we're finally going to get one
of those big moves that can last many years and we see gold miners rally hundreds thousands of percent uh but we're not there yet I think it's still going to be a difficult time because I think we're going to see natural selling pressure which will pull gold down the strong dollar is going to put some downward pressure on gold and uh when we go back to gold and just look at how I think that will unfold again that will be more or less the dollar or sorry gold might rally up but then when the dollar
starts to rally and the stock market corrects it's going to pull gold down a bit with it but then eventually it's going to gain traction and take off so that's kind of like the view right now I'm still very neutral on gold we're not seeing silver participate we're not seeing gold miners participate really gold is that Global defensive kind of Safe Haven play that if you were to ask any you know random investor who's not heavy into the markets they're not a technical trade or anything they'd
probably say oh maybe I'll buy some gold uh it's just what comes to mind gold is typically very slow moving which means you can put large amounts of money to it and not stress about it because typically it only moves a fraction of a percent a day and it holds its value people buy gold they accumulate it they don't actively trade it so it's constantly has kind of an upward bias to it over the long run okay I I do think it's always worth pointing out that things happen slowly it's not always as quickly as people
might want to see them so really good to go into that I was hoping we could talk a little bit more about what you mean when you talk about a stock market correction so I think that during that lock conversation we had we talked about the risk of a recession in the US and you mentioned I believe the last time we had that back in 2008 stocks went into a stage four decline so interesting to hear more about that especially because in the mainstream we keep hearing more about how we might actually have a soft
Landing so interested to hear how all of that fits together for you yeah so um if we if we go back to this infog graphic that that I like to show it really breaks the markets down there's there's four stages that the markets go through and the the phases that we can make a lot of money as a as an active investor or Trader is a stage two advancing stage this is known as a bull market phase it's what everybody wants all the time um and then we also make a lot of money in a stage four because it is a strong
trend we don't care if it's trending up or down we can make a lot of money either way what we don't like are these stage three topping phases which are choppy stock market has been in this for like two years now same with the stage one it's usually a bottom stage um gold miners have been stuck in this kind of stage one basing for a long time many years and uh it's kind of dead money until you know whatever you're following you needed to be in a stage two or stage four to make a lot of money so right now
the stock market Market to me is in this stage three we're in this complacency move which uh if we go down to the emotions of the the market participants uh we're kind of in this this kind of rally back up to these highs uh that we saw back earlier this year and people are thinking we're going to go for the soft Landing they think you know the new bull market is going to start um the reality is I think things are actually going the opposite direction and eventually where the markets are going to break down people
are going to get anxiety and we're going to go into that stage four decline but this is the overall cycle how how Market works we have a blowoff phase and then it consolidates people have false hope believing we're going to start another bull market but it goes the opposite direction and catches a lot of people off guard so when we look at the at the markets here uh We've we saw the the tech bubble over here eventually it went into a multi-year stage four decline uh we also had a breakdown and a
consolidation through here in 2008 it went into a stage four decline uh and and now I believe we're coming up for what could be a pretty major double top and this is kind of like a complacency move and I think eventually we're going to see this roll over and there's a lot of downside uh potential to this market and uh this this whole complacency phase is is very dangerous especially if we look at the NASDAQ the NASDAQ really shows more so the emotional phase if we actually Zoom back to how the 2000 uh Tech bubble
unfolded we saw a more more or less a 40% pullback and then we saw a complacency move for about a 44% rally and then the markets you know they ended up falling about uh 80 plus percent took 15 16 years for the NASDAQ to come back uh in 2008 we had the break to the downside we had a complacency move and then it went into a stage four decline corrected over 50% and I believe now we've come down and now we're going back up in this complacency move I think we might put in more of a double top maybe even Pierce
to a nominal new all-time high and we need to see how the market reacts if people Pile in and and create another technical short squeeze and people get in because they hear on the news it's a new bull market we're hitting new alltime Highs but if huge sellers step in and crush the price which is what we've seen many times before uh this could come right back down and break down into a very big big way and so this this could be one massive double top in the tech space specifically too uh it's
even more pronounced but uh we're looking at potentially multi-year to recover once this Market rolls over and uh this could take many many years of sideways or big volatility and that's the last thing people want to do is watch their investment Capital just like after the last major bubble take 15 years to start making money again and lose almost 85% of your Capital so there's a huge potential scenario unfolding and it's not about if it's going to happen or not to me it's about making sure your your
capital's protected so if this does happen you don't lose your money in fact you can actually benefit from falling pricing um and if the markets keep going higher that's the nice thing about being a technical Trader we're long the markets we're rotting things up right now um uranium stocks the indexes and if they keep going up well we're we're long that's the great thing about being a technical Trader you throw all the fundamentals all the FED all all people's opinions out the window and you
just follow price we don't need to pick a top or bottom we just need to identify a trend and then get on board with those so once you become a technical Trader this is one thing a lot of people always say they're like oh my gosh once you've weed out all the news and just follow price and you have a game plan for both sides no matter what it does and you follow the trend it doesn't really matter what the markets do obviously we'd like them to always just keep going up but that's not the case and uh we can
make a lot more money actually in Falling markets because they fall about seven times faster than they rise so there's huge opportunity around the corner if this Market goes into a nose dive and uh I also think it'll turn into one huge opportunity for the precious metal space because I think it's going to kick into uh the next real major bull market for gold miners that literally we've kind of been waiting for since like 2009 or 200 kind of one 2002 where things are rocketing hundreds or
thousands of % so all these things are coming and all these markets and different asset classes are all linked in a different way and they're all going to be you know providing different opportunities the key is finding ones that are at a stage two or stage four where there's really strong Trends and then playing those Trends yeah you know I think you always do a good job of reminding us that there are opportunities out there probably no matter what's going on in the markets so you mentioned a couple of places where
you're seeing opportunity precious Metals uranium I wonder if we can go a little bit deeper into areas where people might find opportunities in 2024 or areas where they just might find protection if if that's what they're looking for yeah I mean I I think a place of protection uh when things get really wild I like to step away from volatility I like to move to slower moving things I I think um let me just go back to the uh the daily chart here I love I love the US dollar Index um it's
a it's a nice trending currencies Trend very nicely I find in most cases uh the dollar moves very slow very o very rarely does it move over a percent it's kind of like gold uh and I I do think there's going to be some good like in 2022 the stock market the average portfolio was down about 25% uh well you could you could move into the US dollar which the dollar went it had a massive rally and while it it looks really massive I mean it's a 20% rally uh but that's it's a fairly slow
conservative moving market and I think I think the uup which is the dollar Index if the stock market goes to sell off next year and starts to roll over instead of trying to get fancy if you're not a technical Trader you don't have strategies in place you don't know how to manage money sometimes moving to cash is one of the best opportunities or one of the best positions to protect your Capital you could move to literally cash to the US dollar Index and as the World falls apart and the dollar takes off
you're actually growing your account in something that's very slow and conservative and you're probably comfortable with most people are pretty comfortable holding US Dollars and uh this becomes a kind of it's a reserve currency so it naturally wants to go up during chaos so this is the the most con conservative way to take advantage I think of um of chaos next year to kind of sidestep and have low volatility um in terms of potentially looking at the miners if we take a look at the gold
miners and Zoom way out here uh we can see they've been forming this stage one basing for a long time they they showed some earlier life back in 2020 and they're still kind of in this basing phase but there's going to be a time where they they take off um and and there's going to be a huge opportunity there so it's just a matter of letting this stage one work itself out waiting for the right Market environment uh a lot of people think they always need to own positions they have to have multiple
stocks uh but the reality is the stock market if you look at it like the ocean the Tide's either going up which brings lifts all boats or it's going down it takes all boats down with it uh stock market is the same if we're in a bullish phase you naturally want to own stocks if we're in a bearish phase you don't and right now the precious metal space when it comes to the miners they're still struggling and they're not really in a full-on bull market phase so we don't want to hold assets quite like
those just yet they you know the got to wait for the technical the long-term and the short-term Trends to fall in line and then ride those those Trends higher okay yeah good to take a look at the miners I know we have a lot of people who are curious about what's going on there when they may break out it sounds like it's not going to be quite yet if we look over to Silver I think you started to mention silver earlier on it would be great to take a closer look at what's going on there
silver I believe this year has kind of topped out at that $26 level so curious to know about what you see coming in 2024 especially in relation to what's going on with gold yeah so uh when we take a look at Silver as as we can see Silver's had these massive blowoff uh spikes in the past I think silver is has is very similar to gold miners it's it's had this correction it's put in a base it's still building out this launch pad for it to to to take off and Rocket higher I think that that hopefully is going to
happen in 2024 but silver is defitely struggling silver is more of a speculative play in my opinion uh you know gold is equivalent to trading up here uh Silver's down uh you know 50% from the highs miners are down about 50% from the highs these things should be moving up with gold if it was a broad precious metals rallied and we're not seeing that unfortunately uh so I think there's going to be more time where we see gold silver miners kind of Flounder in in a sideways range could still be a
pretty big range uh until we get that perfect scenario so just like if the tide is going up or down and the stock market is bullish or bearish we're not in we're not in a bullish phase yet for precious metal miners once we kick into that bullish phase um then that's when we start to really see things take off so it's a matter of just letting time work itself through the precious metal space silver and miners more so um and eventually we'll start seeing them come to life uh but right now they're really
just struggling they're still trading sideways and the money isn't quite flowing there but when they do spark they dramatically outperform gold no they will play catchup and then surpass gold so that's that's what you know the big lure for them is is as we can see these charts these are absolutely phenomenal opportunities the thing is they're short live for example one two three you got like four months five months to try and catch a move that you know each time or maybe maybe a little
bit longer but we're talking over you know uh 10 20 30 once every 30 years you know this is kind of happening to try to nail three or five months so that's what a lot of people they get sucked into trying to catch these because if you catch one of these moves you feel like a million bucks and it's the sector you fall in love with but they're very rare and people will hold on to their positions for a long time and and that money just kind of sits there when it could be in other assets but once this
sector comes into life I mean this is when we want to get ready to get into uh then we catch one of these moves but then it'll it'll be over quicker you know people wait 10 15 years for it and then it's over potentially in less than a year and people think that was too quick and they hold on to it and they repeat the whole cycle so it comes down to managing positions we're here to make money we're not in here to like ride something because we love it and it's exciting we're here to catch a spike
watch it start to you know reverse and get out and then go find the next asset I think uranium stocks are going to be one of those as well they're actually really coming to life um for huge potential I think in 2024 yeah you know we should go into uranium a little bit more deeply if you don't mind because our audience has a really strong interest in what's happening over there and one of the questions that I've been asking a lot of people is what happens with the price of uranium because we have seen those those
big price spikes in the past people feel excited about that they wonder if it's going to happen this time we've seen it so far move up pretty slow and steady so what do you see coming there and also if we could relate it back to the stocks of course yeah so uranium has been out of favor for quite a long time it actually topped out the same time that precious medals did back in in uh 2011 they have been out of favor nobody's wanted anything to do with them but finally when we start to zoom in we
can see that they're actually really really coming back to life we've had a very strong rally it's been consolidating it's it's now starting to rally and break to some new highs so there's a lot of upside potential here uh in the uranium space and there's a big movement towards going you know Net Zero carbon for the planet all these things uh I was speaking to somebody this summer who knows quite a bit about uranium and they were saying that the new uranium facilities these small
things are literally the size of like a just a large house have enough they're set up that they can like power an entire State and how safe they are and all that stuff so for all we know uranium might come full circle everybody goes from hating it to thinking it's the most dangerous thing to it might actually be what could could really bring energy everywhere and in a much more green way and maybe that's why we're seeing this whole Space start to come to life there is not a whole lot of
of uranium out there it's it's going up in value and um this this might come out of the blue for a lot of people as um some type of like Green Tech although I would although they do glow green on The Simpsons if you remember that show but it'll be interesting to see where uranium space goes like I think there's potential for it to Rally uh substantially just like the precious metal miners where these little companies these are very most of them are very small um could rally hundreds
thousands of percent um once we kick into high gear now it is in rally mode right now uh you know it is bullish we actually long um this ETF but I do think eventually we're going to have a market correction stage four Decline and it will pull these back down for one I think final pullback before I think the stock market and these leading kind of commodity type plays actually Dominate and become the hottest the hottest thing so bullish right now I do think there'll be weakness early in 2024 uh but then
after that uranium and precious metal space I think is going to be um to be talked about for a long time after that next rally okay and you know you mentioned kind of commodity as a whole so we've been talking about precious bals we've been talking a little bit about uranium and energy are you looking for kind of that that build up for all the Commodities after we go through that last pull back and then and then start moving uh I don't I don't think so I mean I think it's going to be more so
these kind of unique select Commodities uh like gold silver um uranium style um I don't think we're going to see like Lumber and all those things really take off in fact I think we're going to see them flounder last time we saw this we saw Building Supplies the the the price of the Commodities just kept going down and down and for concrete and all those things so because we're we're in a recession things wind down everything comes to a grinding Halt and um most Commodities there's less demand so we
actually it takes a long time for that to change Corners uh to to turn back into a bullish phase so I think it actually takes a couple years for the general commodity basket um to actually put in a bottom and uh it start to rally versus I think the precious metal space actually bottoms typically before the stock market does and starts to Rally so it's more of a leading indicator once we get into there if precious metals really start to take off yet the stock market keeps going down the news is Bleak um
that'll be probably the sign that that's the beginning of the the gold rally and it's probably only a few months away from the stock market putting in a bottom as well right so you do you still have to be selective you still have to be careful with what you're picking because we can't forget about the overall scenario that we're heading into there so I have I have hopefully kind of a fun question which is looking forward to 2024 do you have any thoughts on what the best performing asset of the Year
might be o 2024 I do think it's going to be like if it unfolds like I think it will be I do think the dollar is going to scream higher I think the stock market is going to crash um the best commodity or the best play um play you're not maybe bonds could come back from the dead okay they're down like over 40% and the I remember not that long ago the FED had like no interest rates to cut he had no bullets in his gun uh and now the FED has got a billion quarter bases points to start shaving off and firing off to
try and save the day when the stock market's collapsing and we go into another financial crisis so I think we could there's they're talking about keeping the rates up for long time I mean you can't ever listen to the news to the to what they're saying um so you never know we could see bonds come back for avengeance um I do think precious medals will do very well but I think it's going to be a pivotal year we're going to big big big sell-off of stock market big rally in the dollar but then they could
reverse very quickly a lot of bare markets are the the initial drops can happen very quickly uh and then they take a long time to to claw their way back so yeah I I'd probably say the dollar is the most conservative play um I like gold as well they're both a conservative play they're both going to move at different times the dollar goes up first and then gold will follow as the dollar tops gold will start to Rally so I think it's kind of a two-play type of year um you play the fear with the rising dollar
and then once the fear's dissipated you go into gold um to catch it as the the physical Safe Haven asset of choice is kind of what I'm thinking yes yes my apologies I know that's that's a tricky question especially looking at such a long time period but I always find it's really interesting to hear what people say and I think what you said is important because I people seem to people want to hear one prediction and that's it for the year that's where we're going but I
think you do a good job of showing us okay things can change and we have to re-evaluate as we go to figure out what's actually going to happen so yeah so that's that's everything I have for you today but before I let you go any final thoughts that you would leave investors with heading into the end of the year and of course into the new year sure I I think um I think it's possible we're in a we're in a holiday rally mode uh in fact if if we were to look at the the SP 500 real quick here like the SP y
ETF I just want to quickly just show seasonality wise if I show this year's price action we kind of rallied up we topped out in in July we went down to the lows at the end of October and now we're into this kind of holiday rally if we take a look at seasonality WISE of the SP 500 this year has been moving very much so like it typically does we see rally up it tops out June July kind of August time frame sells off to the end of October and then we go into this great big rally so this whole year has
definitely moved like it has over the past 30 30 years uh we are in December the SP 500 has just hit resistance from the July highs and typically we see the market pull back for a week and a half or so in mid December and then we go into the holiday final final push into the end of the year so I would expect a little bit of weakness in the stock market right now um and then I think we're going to see another wave of buying to the upside uh when we take a look at gold from a seasonal standpoint
gold typically pull back the the last week of November to the first week of December so we're right in this phase gold not only kind of hit resistance poked Toom new highs uh it's getting sold into but this is also a time where sellers step in so Gold's at resistance it's getting sold off it's moving down H but we're GNA have to see how the end of December closes as you can see it shows December is typically fairly strong month for Gold so by the end of this month that monthly bar we looked at
which looks really bearish could actually be really bullish and as you said we have to not just pick a prediction pick a pick something we want and stick with it we have to constantly be changing our um we have to change with the markets the market isn't going to do what we want we just have to always evolve and adjust our positions and our outlooks and um expectations as the markets unfold so that's kind of the holiday bulge and pullback uh if you look at it from seasonality Wise and the
markets have been doing exactly um what they have been doing over the past 30 years so this year is you know uh kind of a typical standard year even though most people think it's been a roller coaster ride it's actually been a very comfortable steady year for an investor who knows how the markets move and what to expect okay I think that's a nice place to wrap it up we'll definitely be watching to see how December plays out for gold hope to have me back soon to look again at what's coming in 2024
great well thanks for having me always a pleasure Charlotte of course and once again I'm Charlotte McLoud with investing news.com and this is Christopher Mulan of the technical traders.com thank you for watching if you like this video make sure you subscribe to our Channel we'd also love to hear your thoughts so leave us a comment below we'll see you next time [Music]
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