[Music] I'm Charlotte McLoud with investing news.com and here today with me is staven Morgan publisher of the Morgan report thank you so much for joining me great to have you on as always well Charlotte it's great to be back thank you really good to be catching up with you and when I was getting ready for this interview I looked back and I saw that our last conversation was actually back in March so it's been a little while when we were talking at that time I think it was around the first time this year that
gold passed 2000 and we've seen it do it a number of times in 2023 it's currently above 2,000 as we speak right now so where I thought we could start is with the most important drivers for gold that you're seeing at the moment well the most important drivers are economic uncertainty and the biggest buyers of course are the central banks it's been that way for last year 2022 they set a record for I think the last 50 years and they're on track to be a similar amount of gold gobbling again
this year yeah retail's been above average I would think uh I won't know until I see the data but it's economic uncertainty Safe Haven status I'm surprised in a way Charlotte it's not well Beyond 2000 at this point uh with all that's going on with the Ukraine war what's going on in the Gaza Strip GG ping uh coming over and uh telling Biden what he needs to do all the rest of it but uh it is what it is we know that the gold markets are basically derivatives markets like all
the Commodities the derivative price or what we see afterward that does set the spot Market but we also know in some jurisdiction such as uh the Shanghai exchange they actually have a premium so the market isn't um all that we see in other words I still think Gold's undervalued it's hit it three or times or up through the fourth time usually on a fourth try through a level it holds it I did an update for my subscribers because they wanted to know was very complimentary one of my members
said David I want to know if this is a breakout or a fake out last time you when was a fake out you said it was the last time when it was a breakout you said it was so what this time and I gave him the Morgan rule we said a a line that the gold has to achieve that price above that price then it has to maintain it for three days in a row and it also needs to be on above average volume and if that occurs then we are about 80% assured that it is a break so you know we'll see uh I lean toward unfortunately I think it's going
to come down again uh but I could be wrong and one last word you didn't ask me a charlot but the long-term red trade on which is uh short Palladium and long Platinum that it's worked out just making me money while I sleep of course I put it out to our paid members and I thought at the time and I said it was a bold statement I shorted padium at 2400 the ounce and now it's at uh about a thousand and um I said they get to par that platinum and padium would be the same price and they're within $60 of each
other right now on the bid side so and I try to Pat myself on the back it's just the way you can make money in Commodities is not trade very often find a big Trend and stay with along time have a conf okay yeah I think we have a couple of points that we can follow up on there I want to stick with gold for a little bit I like how you put it you know is it a breakout or is it a fake out and I was going to ask you how we can determine what's going on I think you've explained what we need to see for gold to maintain
and and take that move higher going back to the theme of uncertainty that you were mentioning you know there's so many things going on that we don't know how they're going to turn out I think a lot of people are watching US economy right now so that is a good one to touch on as we look toward 2024 people are wondering you know are we going to get that S Landing are we going to get a recession or perhaps are we already in a recession so I wondered if you can help us cut through some of
that noise absolutely and thanks for just the direct questions I mean you know the real answer we are in a recession and we've been in a recession and by their metrics but they Chang our metrics to to kind of try to fool some people the point it is that retail's been decimated I mean there's been more retail cloners I mean s prod for example was like a hundred years old uh you know entity uh bed at Bath and Beyond I mean there's I forget the number something like I looked it up I just did an
interview 248 uh retail businesses either bankrupt or curtailed some of their operations losing franchises closed their shops many of the malls are empty the mall by me uh is quite empty the theaters there the food court has about three restaurants instead of seven uh and that's pervasive throughout credit card debts at an ultimate High um commercial real estate is in a bubble worse than the bubble of 20072 2008 things cost a lot more than the official inflation rate a lot of the food banks are being pushed to their
limits less food is being donated more people s you know walked in and asked for some help at Thanksgiving that setting records so we're in Dire Straits if we want to be honest but of course the the political class and the mainstream Financial press will tell you well look at the GDP the GDP is up the reason the GP GDP is up is because they borrow $ four doll to get $1 of growth in GDP boy that's a real going I mean if you had to borrow $4 dollar to make a dollar every time someone bought a
product on your shelf You' go bankrupt pretty quick and of course the US is bankrupt so I just want to set the scene retails decimated a lot of corporate restaurants in the tubes level credit card debt a lot of uncertainty groceries cost a lot more than what they're telling us energy costs are up and there is an overlay kind of malays some of these people are getting you know assistance on food that are working these people some of them have two jobs and they still can't make ends me sorry
carry on but that's the truth that's what's going and we are in a recession and I put on a Twitter feed yesterday look out we might be going into the Big D I hate to say it but this could be a depression in 2024 I don't want it I don't but I see it the trend is there the trend is not a soft Landing or a recovery the trend continues to be a contraction in the economy across the board China I think you spelled that out really clearly so thank you for doing that and you know I also think people
individual people can definitely feel in their lives things that you're saying but then of course as you mentioned we have the governments that are looking at different statistics to see what they want to see maybe they're looking at indicators that are are lagging so I know that a lot of our audience is also watching closely what the FED is going to do so I want to touch on that and if we're heading toward this procession or even possibly depression scenario in 2024 what do you think we see the FED do and
and what happens to inflation because they've been so focused on getting that number down yeah it's always a tough call on the FED I mean a lot of my peer group have thought that we would see the fed paus and then lower interest rates by now haven't they have paused I think uh that there's another raise or two perhaps I don't know I know that I know what I think all of us and that's this this is the thinking of the alternative media the you know free market thinkers once the FED pauses or lowers
that's kind of signaling to the market that we don't care about the value dollar and once that happens then it could be a race to the bottom where people just start selling dollars and buy gold as an example that's just a real quick example but it would be uh further depreciation of the dollar we don't care remember when we had zero the zero interest rate policy you know if the interest rate on something zero it's not worth for that's the truth but everybody I should say many in the financial
Community took great advantage of and arbed it between different countries borrow dollars for zero includ the country to get it's a lot of stuff plus it can leverage so even you're getting a half a percent if you average 10 to one that half perc goes up 10 fold so you're getting 5% back in the day when he was almost zero anyway I am fearful about what happens when interest rates get lowered I don't think it's going to help as far as inflation one thing I want to talk about thanks for bringing up that
very few do is the psychology of inflation and I've read enough of these books back here on you know the death of money pennyless billionaires I mean I could go on and on the point is that it's a psychological move as much as a as a depreciation of the currency because what happens is you're there working at your job and you say you know what my grocery bills high cost me twice as much for transportation I'm not saving anything anymore I need a raise so you get a raise of 30% you feel good
your boss is in line with it he wants to keep you do a fabulous job and then that goes into you know the next item so you need some Plumbing fix or whatever the plumber says you know well she's got a raise I need to get her and then he raises because you know it's only fair I mean I need to stay with the cost of living too and the psychology takes over and people usually overcompensate so if the plumbers gone up 30% then when the mechanic sees that his bill is up 30% for plumber and the plumber comes in to
get his car fixed he UPS it to 40% because he wants that buffer that he doesn't want to be left behind and once that psychology takes place place it's really hard to stop it and it's so ridiculous what the politicians will do I mean Gerald Ford had win but whip inflation now you wore a bud like that's going to do something I mean put that in a cartoon show you'd start laughing but here's the president of the United States the whip inflation now but like that's going to do so they could put on
price controls which it probably will do which won't work which only causes greater shortages and and more fear in the market I'm sorry I'm ranting and I feel like Mr fear but honestly you know me you know me for years I'm a straight shooter I'm just trying to tell exactly how it is I'm not trying to exaggerate that much and it's not it's going to be ugly or I believe I'm afraid we've got to go to the bottom some type where the market starts to clear out okay the
bonds are always going to be at least 5% and so we've lost this much on the long end of the yield curve and if those bonds will be worth what their par you know 30 years from now but if you need to sell them you're going to have to sell them at a discount because that's life I don't know if we'll get there I do think the FED will throw in the tow I do think they'll start to lower and that I think could be a worse scenario than having high interest rates believe it or not because if we crush the economy if
we push hard down on the economy and flush out all this malinvestment and take the pain then we could come out and rebuild on a on a good foundation I don't think the FED is willing to do that and it's hard on everybody but if you go the other way and ease up and kiss the Boo Boo and make it better then the currency basically goes into the toilet and you can't trust it and you have even a worse situation because that inflation psychology I just mentioned starts to catch fire and you can't
stop would we go into hyperinflation United States stes no well we could get to a point where it' be close enough that um we'd see real big dislocations more than we already have yeah you know we have we have spoken for years at this point and I do know that you're not an alarmist so when you do have concerns for me that means it's it's time to pay attention and I think one point I want to follow up on so for me in the conversations I've been having in 2023 dollarization has been a
big theme and I've heard quite a range of opinions from you know we're heading toward the death of the dollar or this is not something to worry about at all so I wonder where do you fall in that spectrum and I'm interested to hear also how dollarization could actually play out because I think it's hard to to visualize or imagine yeah it is I um just digressed for a second there was a guy in Australia years ago and call the dollars Nar dollars always be anyone that says that doesn't know what we're talking
about and K he didn't know he's talking about because all Fiats you know go all Fiats fail but failure doesn't mean absolute they don't the dollar will not but it will be mitigated more and more dollarization a good word Charlotte that's what's happened more and more you're seeing more and more of the brics nation trade currency to currency at and that will continue that Trend will so the system needs to be re reset and it will be I'm pretty sure but how will it be reset and that's the biggest question
because are the banks really prepared to move over to a cbdc across the board how much resistance will they get probably quite a bit is the crypto Market solid enough sure enough financially stable enough for uh to take up an alternative uh monetary system and I would argue probably not because you know a lot of people in my age group you know they don't even want to bother with it it's too cumbersome it's not easy you know it's not like you put an app on your wallet press a butt
like you know or on an asset back that or you know one that's just got a name to it like dog do Dogecoin not that easy plus it is centralized in most cases you got to go through an exchange and that means they've got your name and your number and all that stuff which is you know your choice it's not that private is what I'm saying the idea was with the origination of Bitcoin was it was Anonymous you kept your anonymity it's peer-to-peer the banks were involved your own bank everybody that's morphed into something
very unlike that and even with Bitcoin it's got more uh qualities that a lot of people admire because the government really can't shut it down but I just had a real life experience with one of our guys that moved was a kind of a whale and he moved a lot the transaction took a very long and what was a real shocker Charlotte was the fee involved was quite large and the idea was that you know we could move Millions for Penny now we don't have these exorbitant fees like the migrant workers in America that send money back
to their parent par uh through Western Union they get scalped really bad I don't like that I don't like seeing people that was the only way they could get money back to Mexico and so with the crypto you know you could send the money and the money gets to your parents and there's a very small almost frictionless system meaning no no fees and that's true in some cases but it's not true in all cases so I'm not saying the crypto experiment is a failure it's not but as time has worn on
we've learned it's not everything that it was reported to be not Anonymous it is third party in many cases transactions on some of the U bigger well-known cryptos is slow um and there AR it's that that you know the adoption isn't that big I mean if 80% of the world was on a crypto right now the banks failed I'd be I'm not a big crypto fan as you know but I'd still be cheering because hey we've got a system of the People by the people for which is what I would right but that's
not it yet it could be but I think we don't have enough time I think you're going to get forced into the new system and say you know if you want to pick up your you know your uh your check from the large corporation you work for you either get into the new system or you're not getting check you know that kind of it's voluntary but if you don't volunteer in you don't get your your weekly check you know back exactly and yeah since you mentioned Central Bank digital currencies I was
going to bring up a report recently that came out from Canada's Central Bank where I don't know if you saw it it was essentially they're reporting on sentiment around the idea of a Canadian Central Bank digital currency and they've gone out and spoken to people and the gist of it from my understanding was there saying okay we understand that you all feel nervous about this and you don't really like this idea but we are going to proceed with it so I kind of I kind of laughed a little bit but it's
it's not really that funny so any any other thoughts there yeah a couple one is um there has to be the system is bailing pretty rapidly and so the new one has to come on board uh what you said reminded me of a speech I did see with Christina lagard and she said you know the uh digital Euros in work how all the benefits of it but we will keep the cash you will have cash well we have a joke in the alternative Financial media you know or financial newsletter writers and others and whenever the government or
government official or NGO type says they're not going to do something three times you're guaranteed that they will so she said at least once or twice that they'll keep cash so she says it one more time we know they're going to go that is that is kind of again funny but not not really that funny to to look at there so what I also want to ask so I had a couple of things that I wanted to go through with you so we touched on those you know we were talking before we tur the camera on about how really
there's so much news going on right now it's hard to keep track of and I wanted to put it back to you a little bit and ask you you know are there topics right now that you think that people should be noticing that they are not noticing right now I do I think number one I don't talk about it enough I'm not real studied in it but you know I'm I'm a student of the markets and you know the world runs on energy not on dollar everyone says money makes world really energy so I'm not a
huge uranium guy we've got a couple uranium picks in our uh in the Morgan support both are doing pretty well uh but I was really a fan of as small modular reactor I thought man this is the way to go I mean they're safer you punch them out like a you Toyota you know the smallest car just you know bang bang bang it gets rid of so much red tape I mean it's really a great idea and unfortunately it looks like that idea which is in my opinion a very good one has been put on hold because the uh SMR
Market uh leaders basically basically have quit producing they it's they're not you know they don't have a profit margin so that could set that back for a while and that concerns me because again we run 20% of the country runs on new out the US runs on nuclear every one of those nuclear facilities with exception maybe one is so old that it needs to be decommissioned very soon so what happens when oil is at a 100 bucks and all the nuke power that you had goes away so you need 20% more more power uh and it's not
available very easily and smrs are out of the picture so you know again I know I S Mr Doom I don't mean to Charlotte but you know I'm well studied on these topics and you interview me for a reason because you want your viewers to understand from different perspectives different people what's going on I I'm sure there's some people much more optimistic than I am but uh you know how many of them brought up that little tidbit of information you know 20% that's one out of five I mean think
about one out of five neighborhoods going BL being blacked out as an example that's a lot anyway I'm sorry but it just it concerns me I mean times like this I'll be a little reflective I feel like I haven't done it right I mean first interview we did together gold and silver pumping up everybody's happy everybody's making money things look great you know we're going to make money and start new businesses or whatever you know I mean we're pretty optimistic from 2000 to
2011 the last decade for me um I saw this coming I'm a little took a little longer than I expected but but here we are and it's hard to rebuild uh when the money when the money it's hard to rebuild when you don't trust it if you don't know to plan for an inflationary environment or a deflation environment it's really hard to make a business decision like an SMR but what are we going to do 10 years from now if we don't have the dollars worth now how can we project how much we're going to
have to borrow what our interest rate will be and we going to have to pay it back be and whe the government gets involved and puts a fee on top of every SMR we build I mean things just get more and more complicated and the more complicated they become the easier they are to fail yeah you know I'm glad that you brought up the situation because that's been on my mind as well I know we have a lot of uranium fans in our audience so I'm sure they'll be interested to hear about the SMR
situation one of the things when it comes to energy that I hear a lot from from people who I speak to is you know we're going to need all types of energy and it's it's concerning if we're not going to be getting it but I want to maybe bring it back to investors and think about you know if that's the case what are what are the opportunities potentially that people can look at within within energy well you know on the SMR thing I mean that's just a trigger shot in time there might be some entrepreneur or
entrepreneurs out there that take that challenge and they come up with one and they do pump so that would be number one I think anything you can do to um to help the energy situation so let's take a real quick thought experiment there's a lot of line LS when you have these power8 B so you start out with 100% of the energy and by the time it gets to the end of the line you lost make up a number 10% 20 if you could mitigate that somehow and you can with super conductivity and that's where you freeze
the lines and you have zero line loss but then you have to have the energy to freeze the lines so it's really not a net El so I think anything along those lines to not you know to get every drop of oil to its maximum where we don't have a big loss right that would be one and there are people working on those by the way um so that's one that's an optimistic view of energy the other one maybe is just you know common sense you know do you have to take a hot shower every time and does it act to be 10
minutes and you know price usually mitigates those things that's function of a true capitalistic system is if all of a sudden your gas bill is double because you're taking those long showers you know your wife might tell you you know it will mitigate the problem and they'll say I'm taking Le I'm going to you know shower less or shower s tongue whatever this a COR example but that's the way the market really are supposed to work I can and so I think it's maybe you know I gave the picture the way it
stands now that doesn't mean it can't get better starting tomorrow I mean it could but I don't see enough uh in the financial system that's solving problem everybody's pushing life insurance policies back and forth or having a high frequency trading system or an algorithm that makes you money in your CIS crypto if you if you place it with them and everybody and this is the top of the Age of Empire where we hit the decadence mode and this opulence and everybody wants to sit on their butts and make
money from each other and that's not a physical economy that's a game that's a gamemanship thing and so 40% of the economy is devoted to playing a game of how I can outsmart you and make money by doing nothing other than pushing some buttons that's a sad sad sad State and if I could do it at that you know in that manner in other words voice what I've just said and hopefully get through to some more people that watch Inn and your show in particular I feel I've done something worthwhile today
because it is not the way the world works in the best form for everybody ping pay paper back and forth doesn't really do anything and I'm somewhat guilty I mean you know what I do for a living is look at the big picture right about it and I show opportunities but you know people want to own their business and if you really buy the right company you're buying that company yeah I own stock but you actually are an owner of that company I mean thinking on the startup if you put in 5% which is
most might be allowed at time you're an owner in that gu you're 5% that's big in the stock as you know but anyway I'm ranting but I I'm I'm concerned I mean you can feel it and you said it yourself I have not felt this um where I've seen so few opportunities whereas before no matter how mky it looked I always saw bright light out I'm not seeing that yeah I think these are very valuable comments that will resonate with a lot of people so I I don't mind it all that we're going in this
direction before I do let you go I of course we have to talk about silver I know we mentioned it a little bit at the beginning of the interview but silver I think people will know at this point that it lags on gold so if we don't see that move in Gold yet we probably don't see the move in silver when it does get there it tends to outperform this year it seems like it's been stuck under that $26 kind of ceiling so just want to get your thoughts on Silver's trajectory forward what we're looking at in
2024 yeah well said uh I did put on Twitter I think we could see 26 it might touch it Inay but that's probably about as much as we're going to get out of this rally in my opinion gold will lead if we're if I'm right about gold in 2024 is the beginning of the next major leg up in Precious Metals I think we'll see uh you know above 2072 is the actual number in US dollars with the previous high and we'll get above that we'll get 21 22 23 I think once we get into that modality we'll see
I don't know if we'll see $3,000 head what happens to the rest of depends if they pause and start lowering interest rates if they do that that will put a boost to Gold because it means they're going to destroy the currency even further than they already have while accelerate and then inflation psychology we talked about will take hold more and more and more and then gold will go up and up and up and then we get what the late great Jim di used to call my my he wrote about this my my gold keeps going higher my my silver
keeps I think we'll see over $30 silver next year and once it gets about 33 there's really not much distance so silver could really start to spike catch up where we see the gold silver ratio go from like in the 80s to 70 to 60 you know so we might see a gold silver ratio 60 to1 or maybe even 50 to one next year not forecast ing that I'm saying that I agree with you I think silver once it gets going for and lastly I'll just say I did a interview with Dr Stephen Lee he's a big silver gold B particularly
silver actually uh he writes a newsletter like me he's from New York he's not ond Wall Street close enough really pretty smart guy and he just pointed out everything that most of his silver nuts have pointed out with the current situation with solar taking so much silver the green energy adding to the silver and the big problem with silver if you want to call it problem is there isn't any institutional investing and normally when we get this kind of a silver market you see some family offices Sovereign wealth funds
maybe even a country or two or uh a money manager buy into the ETFs and we're not seeing this that this time I think that I'm almost certain that will happen I would think it will happen in 2024 so we have a strong industrial demand and uh and it doesn't have to be across the board we could have a contraction in economy like I say so the overall silver need for industry at large save solar goes down but solar's increased so much it makes up for it so industrial demand's higher
than ever even with all the other uses diminishing some retail probably will come in once we get the myi because the fear of missing out will take hold of their Consciousness and then everyone sees inflation and then lastly you'll see the institutions will almost have to come in it can't be the big big player silver such a small Market but it can be some pretty good siiz you know Sovereign wealth funds or you know large trading funds or that kind of thing which is enough to really give Silvera the Boost
it needs to start moving rapidly at and sustaining yeah I think it really helps to kind of lay out the sequence of events so people know when this happens maybe this happens next and on and on and on so that's really good to go over I one final one final question just before we wrap up and we've talked about a lot of topics here lots of good advice for investors if you had to narrow it down briefly into some dos and don'ts for investors as we head forward what would you what would you say
well I would say I've written about in the past it's called the 10 rules of silver investing it applies to Gold really applies to almost any of really and that is um keep it simple keep it sincere you don't have to overload in the precious metals to be well protected 10% probably more than enough for almost every uh there are other opportunities and look to you know solve the problem you you know if you agree with me that energy problem do your own homework find somebody that's very studied and learn
say you know part of the solution is if I invest with this XYZ you know Solar Company or this SMR company or this uh hydrogen uh experimental company or whatever I'm helping myself because I'm going to make plan to make money on it and I'm also helping Society at large because this new hydrogen based fuel cell is going to be so much better for the environment and for uh mitigating the energy crunch that's that's up ahead I believe David so I think that's the way to approach it I mean again if you
just you know in a high frequency trading situation and all you're care about is money money money money um that's not it I mean I grew up wondering how this world works and I started to learn at a pretty young age and I thought the what we call the American system so wonderful I mean if I have a great idea but I have the money to make it happen that I get Mom and my Dad and friends to contribute money to my project and it works we all make money yeah we produce something that the market wants and needs and makes it
better what's better than that right but uh that's not how the system works anymore very often of course there are things that have come that have made our lives better and and that type thing I don't want to be totally groomy but yet I did outline quite well that the system at large is more about uh moving paper rather producing that's that's what uh you should worry about okay I think that's a good point to wrap up on thank you so much for coming on to talk about gold and silver
energy all the other things going on in the markets always really enlightening to hear your CS well thank you Charlotte appreciate it of course then once again I'm Charlotte McLoud with investing news.com and this is David Morgan of the Morgan report thank you for watching if you like this video make sure you subscribe to our Channel we'd also love to hear your thoughts so leave us a comment below we'll see you next [Music] time
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