gold news

 hey everyone welcome to bald guy money I am bald guy and let's start this video off by talking about the fact that job openings around the world are disappearing faster than your brother-in-law when the bill arrives at the restaurant now us job opening data which you can see here on the screen made headlines last week because they came in way below estimates as we slowly inch closer to pre c19 level numbers in fact these are the lowest levels we've seen since March 2021 as the economy really started to

just reopen and what's maybe most alarming about this is that the amount of job openings is getting very close to the number of people looking for jobs in the market and that number is officially 6 million but is likely higher some estimates actually have it around 8 million with only 8.7 million jobs to satisfy those people but this isn't something that is exclusive to the USA right now job markets around the world are softening I am sure my International viewers will agree with that let me know

in the comments and to illustrate that here is some data from the UK and Australia greetings to all of my viewers there showing exactly the same story as in the United States job openings are in severe Decline and what this tells us is despite mainstream media attempts to make you believe in The Narrative of a weaker labor market increasing the chances of a soft Landing the truth is that employers are becoming more pessimistic about economic conditions and are becoming more reluctant to hire this is why they are choosing not to

open new positions or are closing existing positions that they were looking to hire uh for before what's more is it tells us that the phenom phenomenon of declining wages one I've already covered for countries like Canada in the UK in a previous video is coming to you especially if you're located in the United States as the surplus of jobs on the market starts to dry up so don't be fooled by the latest unemployment numbers that tout a resilient job market because all indicators Point towards a globally

weakening labor market and the latest us numbers are likely skewed due to government hiring which are the least productive jobs an economy can add those are the worst jobs an economy can add as well as a temporary increase in manufacturing driven by the return of many Auto Workers in the aftermath of the UAW strike now I've presented all of this data as a primer to today's video topic because what I want to discuss is the healthy skepticism amongst stackers and other investors out there that a

weakening labor market spells Doom for the price of gold and silver so the first thing we're going to cover is the correlation of gold and silver prices to unemployment levels and once we've established how they're related I want to cover what I think we can expect in 2024 as 2023 is nearly done now just before we get into it if you're in the USA and looking to buy the latest dip in gold and silver please check out channel partner pinck they've got silver Eagles back around $28 a piece right now so if

you're a buy the dip kind of person I am a buy the dip kind of person by the way I will leave the link to this great deal in the video description for you and if you want to see what other great deals they've got go to their website at pin.com and remember you can also reach them at the phone number on the screen and that's a reminder for people who are interested in getting some help with a gold or silver Ira they will answer all of your questions as I've said in the last two videos just be sure to tell

them please that you came from the bald guy channel so getting back to the main topic for this video what happens to the price of metals when unemployment is high and what happens to the price of metals when unemployment is very low well to answer that question I put this chart together showing the prices of gold and silver at the unemployment cycle lows versus the unemployment cycle highs and it really says a lot and is pretty consistent with the messages I've been passing to you in other videos and

please let me elaborate the first point I want to make as we look at this data is about gold which I have consistently said is the steadiest performer in precious metals and the one that has done the best against inflation if we look at Gold's performance from each unemployment cycle low meaning the the low point where we bottomed out in unemployment to the high where we were peing in unemployment you can see that five out of six times the price of gold has increased with the only period of decline coming in

1992 and I will cover why in a second but before I talk about that I want to point out that the average increase in the price of gold from cycle bottom to cycle High has been 66% with the last increase in price being 15% from the September mber 2019 unemployment low to the April 2020 early c19 days unemployment high and how I explain this trend is like this when things are good people become complacent it creates what investors call a risk on environment under which the stock market booms bad loans are made bubbles inflate

and gold as I've demonstrated here becomes underinvested until of course the bubble bursts and people look for safety in real money as central banks debase paper money in an effort to inflate the bubble once again and just before I move on to talk about silver it is worth noting that the 1992 unemployment High seen here resulted in the only negative development in the price for gold from low to high on the chart and how I explain that is that it coincides with the highest sell off of gold by central

banks since 1968 and I've marked that in red here on this chart and when we consider that I think we can reasonably say that in current market conditions with central banks as net buyers of gold probably in anticipation of the bursting of the next bubble because they know they're going to have to print more money to save the economy again we should not expect a repeat of 1992 this time around now let's switch back to the Chart I was showing a moment ago because when it comes to Silver as I've said before

silver is a little more volatile it's not as reliable as gold it is more exposed to the ups and downs of the economic cycle due to its status as an important industrial ingredient but as I mentioned in my last video silver usually picks up with gold at least since the early 2000s with a reliable 2 to 14mon lag and I want to quickly switch over to this table the one that I showed you all in the last video as a reminder of of what I'm saying to say that although we don't see a very strong

correlation between silver and unemployment a strong correlation clearly like we see between uh the price of gold and unemployment we know that a strong lagged correlation between silver and gold exists so now if we switch over to the main learnings I want you all to take out from this it's that we are at or near the unemployment cycle bottom with unemployment official unemployment I should say well below 4% at a time when we see the economy souring this my dear viewers is as good as it gets this is the bottom for

unemployment and as unemployment starts to go up panic sets in and people pivot to risk off assets and Investments the price of gold will go up with near certainty as a result of this eventually bringing silver up with it but likely as I've mentioned with a lagged effect look for that to take place 2 to 14 months after and as I mentioned in my last video I expect it to happen within 4 to 6 months now just for fun I want to add that if we app apply the average increase in the price of gold and silver

from the unemployment cycle bottom to the high the ones that I talked about before the 66% for gold the 31% for silver that would bring us to price levels shown here on this on in this image here and that would be $303 per troy ounce of silver and I say that even though I think it will go past that and $3,327 per troy ounce of gold and I know I'm starting to sound like a broken record on this channel but with the latest pullbacks we've seen in the prices of metals we've also seen a corresponding pullback in the prices of

mining stocks now this is an advice but from my point of view this is a great opportunity if your dollar cost averaging to pick up some more of your favorite mining stocks because as the price of gold and silver increases the prices of these mining stocks will increase at an even greater percentage and this is an alert I haven't even shared on my patreon yet so you're getting it first here on YouTube Sorry to all my patreon members but this is an important message that I want everybody to hear because there's a big

opportunity in mining stocks right now and if you want to better educate yourself on some of the catalysts that are going to push gold higher in 20124 ones that I haven't covered on this channel please download this free newsletter from my dear friends at the wealth research group the link to get it is here on the screen it's totally free to download I have downloaded it myself and I think anyone who wants to truly understand the market factors influencing the price of gold as well as learn about opportunities in mining

stocks should download it right now and I will leave the link to this free newsletter in the video description for those of you who want to take advantage of that now moving on to this video's viewer question and remember you can leave your questions in the comments section below and you never know it may just appear in my next video and this question comes from a viewer located in czechia formerly known as the Czech Republic his name is Martin milcho and he is actually a member of my patreon

hey Martin nice to see your question here appearing on the YouTube channel uh Martin wants to know based on what do I pick my gold miner stocks and that's a great question because there are a few important things that I look for now just before I start I want to remind you all that I have been barish on mining stocks for a long time and I only turned bullish on them around August of this year because I see capitulation in mining people have totally given up on the sector and the whole idea when

allocating money to stocks is to recognize opportunity and Buy Low buy before everybody gets in and sell High meaning sell once everybody's gotten in and when choosing mining stocks to accomplish that the first thing I do is I try to strike a balance between big Miners and small miners this way I spread the risk a bit but what I'm most interested in is where is Big institutional money going where are they parking their money how are the biggest mining ETFs approaching the topic of Mining and if money starts flowing into

these ETFs which stocks do I think will benefit the most from this so to determine that I usually check out the Vanek mining ETFs the GDX and gdxj and I have given you an overview of what they are here the GDX is for bigger miners bigger companies they yield a higher dividend than the junior miners the smaller mining companies but they have less upside potential with respect to stock price once the price of gold Booms The the gdxj on the other hand is for those smaller Junior miners they don't

yield much of a dividend it's 0.5% as you can see I've put here but when the price of gold booms you could see these stocks triple or quadruple especially as the big miners start to acquire these smaller miners because they really haven't been allocating much money to Gold exploration over the last 10 years or so and for that reason as the price of gold goes up and they start making more money what they're going to have to do to make up for that lack of investment and exploration is they're

going to have to buy some of these Junior miners that's just a fact okay so what I do is I approach this topic with the assumption that despite a few jewels that might not be listed here when people wake up to the Mining stock trade the majority of institutional money will flow into these ETFs meaning their largest positions which have been selected after careful risk risk assessment will benefit the most so what I do is I take a look at what these ETFs are holding and try to find companies in

their top Holdings that are undervalued versus their peers based on long-term assets while being mindful that I don't want to buy a company with huge debt especially as we've just entered an interest rate hiking cycle once I've made my picks based on what smart money thinks are the best stocks and which ones I think are most undervalued I allocate my budget across these stocks in varying percentages I allocate more money for positions that I'm very confident in like b2g gold for example

from this list that you see here and I allocate slightly lower amounts of money for positions that are more speculative so positions that come with more risk so Martin not to over complicate it in a nutshell that is how I approach the topic of buying miners and if you want to know anything more about the topic Martin you know how to get in touch with me and for all the YouTube viewers out there remember you can put your questions if you have additional questions that you want me to build upon here uh in another video just

drop them in the comments section I read all of your comments and as I said you never know one of your questions might become even the main topic of a future video with that said I want to wish you all a fantastic day ahead please remember to take care of yourselves and take care of each other I will see you next weekend likely and until then goodbye