gold news

 Hello everyone. Welcome to Bald Guy Money. And we start this one off with a quick recap of some things I've been covering over the last three months. And don't worry, we will be moving shortly to my future expectations. But first, we need to cover some of our past calls in order to set the stage for what comes next. And the first thing I want to come back to is this timeline from a January 5th video I did where we identified the danger zone we were entering after the January 20th inauguration, which had

less to do with Donald Trump and more to do with the fact that a correction was inevitable, which I said would lead to an environment of fear from the month of April, which only coincidentally lined up with Trump's tariff announcements. Now, judging where we're at on the fear and greed index, it's fair to say we nailed that call. All asset classes are selling off, including metals, in line with expectations, and the dollar, at least for now, remains strong despite some signs of weakness as investors sell

everything and move into cash. But despite all of the fear in the market, there are a couple important points as they relate to gold and silver I need you all to remember. Starting with this, which I first covered on March 16th with this image you see here, where I stated that since 2000, gold has not had a significant correction below the price it was at when the Federal Reserve initiated its first target interest rate cut. Meaning the price of gold, even in the 2008 crash, which was bad, did not

get below the price it was at when the Fed cut rates for the first time. And what I said was this is a strong sign that gold is not going below $2,500 an ounce, even though we should see some additional downside from here, which we'll get to shortly. Now, in that same video where I talked about gold not crashing to below that pre-cut level, I also showed you this data on silver, which I followed up with another video a week later where I said the price of silver always revisits that precut level, which as you can see here was

$29.35 per ounce, which led me to say in that second video that on a gentleman's bet, I expected the price of silver to break back below $30 an ounce once more before making its next move up and leaving the $20 level behind forever. With that said, when it comes to past calls, there is one thing that requires some revision and additional context, which is something I spoke about on February 16th, where I said based on silver's previous breakout, which took place 2 and 1/2 months after gold's 2024

breakout, we could see silver make its next move up as soon as midappril of this year. Now, we're not quite there yet. We're not quite at midappril yet. But to be honest, I don't think the next move for silver is going to happen that quickly, especially considering gold's recent reversal, even though I still think it's going to happen this year. So, with the table set and taking all the new data we have into consideration, I want to talk about the following things. Starting with how bad this gold

and silver crash is compared to the crash we're seeing in other asset classes. Once that's covered, I am going to put my reputation on the line once again and show you all where I think we may see the bottom for gold and silver with price ranges for both metals showing where I think the bottom will be. And we'll finish this video with some key indicators that suggest why we should be getting more bullish on precious metals in 2025, not less bullish. And that includes a powerful message on how I think this market

should be viewed. if you hold precious metals or if you're actively purchasing precious metals. Now, just before we dive in, please remember to check out www.summitmetals.com if you want to buy gold and silver at a great price from a dealer you can trust. And for those of you with deeper pockets who may want to use some of your stock market gains to move into metals or are just starting to unload a cash position you've been holding for some time, Summit Metals now has a new section for you called the

Bullion Reserve, where you can lock in exceptional prices when you buy in large quantities, including monster boxes, kilo bars, gold coin tubes, and more. And you'll find all of that at summitals.com. Okay, so jumping into it to everyone who is crying about a crash in precious metals, let me just remind you all that everything is relative. And as stocks and yes, even silver have tumbled, gold has held up very well. It's still above $3,000 an ounce. And just for context, the last time the S&P

500 was at the level it's at today, which was back in April 2024, so 1 year ago, the price of gold was about $2,300 an ounce. So don't call it a crash for gold. Not yet, at least. especially considering the fact that gold on its own is now 54% of the entire value of the top 10 assets ranked by market cap, not including bonds or real estate. And when combined with silver, which yes, admittedly took a tumble, metals have now increased their share of value on this list for the sixth week in

a row, standing at 58% of the value of the top 10 assets. Now, as we move towards the 60% I told you all to look out for as the market breaks down and that's still coming, that's still on the way. Now, another thing that's important for us to do when we see this type of volatility in the market is to of course remain calm and zoom out. When in doubt, zoom out, right? because I've received so many comments from people thinking they're dancing on my grave these past two days, especially on X, calling me

every name in the book. But on a year-to-ate basis, so in 2025 up to today, both gold and silver remain positive on the year, while the S&P 500 is down more than 14% and the NASDAQ, so the darling tech stocks, which have been so great over the past few years, are down nearly 20% on the year. What's more is as we zoom out a bit more on the 12-month scale, silver and gold are still up respectably despite the pullbacks we've seen over the last couple days, while both of the major stock indexes are down over the same

period of time. And this is just to say yes we have given up a little territory even a lot in the case of silver as we've retreated with the broader market but this was expected and metal stackers haven't gotten hit nearly as hard as some others have over the past few months. So, in my estimation, this crash hasn't been that bad so far, at least, especially when you take the big runup we saw for both precious metals leading up to this moment into account as it's cushioned the blow a little bit. And

when you add to that consideration how much value fiat paper money has lost over the past 5 years, which is officially 24% lost on the US dollar, but in reality, it's a lot closer to 40%. These are the kinds of things you have to live with because nothing goes up in a straight line. I've said it many times before. And the only thing that goes down in a straight line, it's only one thing and that is devaluing cash in a bank account or under your mattress or wherever you keep your cash. So that's

just a little bit of perspective for everybody who's watching this video. That said, this is not over by a long shot because, as I've said before, the S&P 500 still has a long way to go down before it reaches that that technical trough we've always seen it return to in big crashes like this. And I think the fact that Warren Buffett started aggressively stockpiling cash in mid 2024 as he was selling off stocks when the S&P 500 was at 5,250 is a very telling sign in that it was already a point at which his actions

were telling us he thought the market was overvalued and it confirms my thesis of a return to those 2022 lows which will inevitably bring metals down a bit more with it. But the question is by how much. And the way I want to calculate the range for the pullback is to see how much gold and silver have historically corrected after the first rate cut in the market correction we always see after rate cuts happen versus the price it was at before the Federal Reserve initiated the first rate cut which if we

look at last year that first rate cut happened in September 2024. So I want to compare basically how prices have developed uh over the past few rate cutting cycles. So I've compiled the last three major corrections we've seen starting with the 2000.com correction, the 2008 financial crisis correction which was a big one and the C19 correction of 2020. All using monthly closing numbers. And what you'll see here is exactly what I've been telling you for the last couple months. First

off, the number for gold is always higher on the pullback than it was before the first rate cut. Whereas silver has always revisited that pre- rate cut level, even a bit lower. And what I've done here using the largest correction and the smallest correction as indicators is I have determined a range versus where gold and silver prices were leading into that first Federal Reserve cut, which again took place in September of last year. And what this data suggests is that gold's pullback range is between

$2,750 to $2,800 per ounce. And that's probably a good place to get aggressive if you're stacking gold or maybe even buying gold uh buying gold mining stocks. And it's what I will be doing now for silver as it's a bit more volatile. This is something we know. The range goes from $23.20 per ounce up to $28.17 per ounce as a pullback range. And I know that may be frustrating for some of you who are trying to perfectly time your purchase and trying to nail the bottom. And I will cover more on

that a bit shortly. But what I want to say here is that this is an honest and realistic take on what's to come. And once again, I am putting my reputation on the line by sharing these numbers as I've done in past videos. Not all YouTubers will go out there and make a video and and and share a timeline and and precise numbers, but as with past predictions, I will stand by these numbers in the future as I stand by them right now. And I am confident that we will remain in these pullback areas with

maybe a very small margin of error. So with all that said, considering the pullbacks and the uncertainty, why do I think we should remain especially bullish on gold and silver right now? Well, there are two specific signs I am looking at. One of them has already been triggered and the other one is in its development phase. And I'll start from the one that's developing because it ties in well with what I said about the Federal Reserve intervening and getting aggressive with interest rate cuts and

possibly even quantitative easing, which I've also mentioned in recent videos, which we know is code for money printing. And I think they will get aggressive with this in the last three months of the year as this timeline again that I showed you back in January indicates because where the majority of market experts up until just a few days ago believed Jerome Pal when he said there will only be one or two interest rate cuts in 2025, most of them are now changing their mind to be in line with something

that this community, people who watch these videos have known and been expecting since back in January. And that is a higher probability of four rate cuts in 2025. And that probability despite inflation still being far off from the Fed's target of 2% is nearing 70% now as you can see in the image here on the screen from the CME Fed Watch tool. And if it's something we know about interest rate cutting cycles and how that impacts precious metals, it's that metals take off when things get

ugly on the market and interest rates come down. It's happened every time since 2000 despite the pullback phase we always see. And this time, this time around, it's going to be amplified as the size and suddenness of US tariffs, which were announced just a few days ago, have given even more of an incentive for countries to diversify away from the dollar to conduct trade in their native currencies and hold gold in reserve. Again, this has only strengthened that. Now, there's one more

telltale sign of a coming boom in the prices of gold and silver, and I've been hearing a lot of people talk about it recently, and maybe not in the context that I usually talk about it, but that is the rising gold to silver ratio because, as you can see here, it is spiking and now above 100, which has only happened a couple other times before. Now, before I give my take on this, I will say that my friend to his one touched on this topic in his last video, which after you watch this video, I highly recommend you go over to his

channel and check out his latest video because in it he said the gold to silver ratio has not always been the most reliable indicator and that expectations of a return to some historic level just because that historic level existed in the past is a bad reason for overallocating your cash savings into silver. And I agree with him 100% on that. And it's why I've always said that owning both gold and silver is important. And that a fiat or cash allocation of about 80% of your budget into gold and 20% into silver sets you

up very well to benefit from the from the big coming moves that we're going to see in the price of silver while also taking advantage of the relative stability and reliability of gold. And I want to be clear on that. That said, at least for the next few months, I am allocating my monthly budget 5050 between gold and silver. That is my plan. And the reason is because a spike in the gold to silver ratio has historically been a precursor or a leadup to a local bottom in gold and silver prices followed by a major runup

in the prices of gold and silver. but more importantly an outperformance of silver versus gold. And to give some more background as to why I said midappril may not be a realistic time frame to see that major move up for silver happen is because traditionally it's taken a few months from the top of the gold to silver ratio for this reversal to take place. And as my friend to is one once again, I'll mention him said in his video, "We can't be sure this is the top of the gold to silver

ratio." And I'm sharing a screenshot from my Patreon Discord chat here. And this was an exchange I had with a great supporter of mine, Chris McCormack. Hey, Chris, if you're watching, uh, where we discussed just that fact exactly. And considering the pullback ranges I've already shared in this video, it does suggest that this ratio can still go a bit higher, but it does also tell us that a major reversal for precious metals is right around the corner. Now, as I wrap this video up, I want to tell

you all that two awful emotions are going to play with you over the next few months. They are fear and greed. And it's why I've brought this image back up on the screen because now as things stand today, you're afraid. And as prices enter our target range, the fear, it won't go away, but it will start to be replaced by greed. And many of you out there will try to time the exact bottom for precious metals to go allin. In my opinion, that's a huge mistake because what we have here is not an

opportunity on price for precious metals. It is an opportunity of time. A window has been opened and once it closes, that's it. It's not going to open like that again for a long time. And not until prices are already much, much higher than what they are today. Now, some people will accuse me of spreading fear with this message or trying to push sales of precious metals by saying this, but that's not the case. Because if you've been watching me for the past couple years, you'll know that

I'm not only into metals. I own other things too, majority real estate in fact, but that I've recognized a trend and opportunity here in both gold and silver, and have been positioning myself accordingly in expectation of what's to come. So, I hope you'll all recognize that fact. And if you're not subscribed, will consider subscribing to my channel for more updates because I haven't abandoned my 2025 price targets for gold and silver, which at the beginning of the year, in fact, it was the end of

last year, I revealed to be $3,000 for gold, which, okay, we we've hit. Let's see how we finish the year, and $42 per ounce for silver. And the truth is, I am more bullish on gold and silver now than I was then at the end of 2024 because things are playing out just as we've expected, as we've said they would. The video history is there. And I think the closer we get to the end of the year is where we'll see fireworks. And you can count on me to come here every single Sunday to update you on what I think

comes next. But for those of you who can't wait till next Sunday to get my update, I have especially right now, considering everything that's happening, added a 20% discount for people who want to join my Patreon for an entire year. That 20% discount is up right now, and I'm going to be taking it down in probably a week or so. I am making posts there on the Patreon almost daily now with updates and information. Uh if you want to join, the link in is in the description and pinned comment below.

But for those of you who just want to keep your finger on the pulse of what's happening on a daily basis, that's a great place for you if you're interested in at least understanding how I see things. And if you have questions, by the way, please don't forget to add them in the comments section of this video below. I have to skip the traditional viewer question for this video today because so many of you requested that I cover this topic and there was so much data that I had to go through, so many

numbers that I had to crunch that I wasn't able to do an additional viewer question. But I will try to get a bonus video out later this week here on YouTube with a viewer question in it. But until then, I want to thank you all for watching. I want to thank you all for leaving likes if you enjoyed this content. If you think other people in your life need to hear what I'm saying, please don't be shy. Share it with them. That helps grow this channel. And until the next time we see each other,

everybody, I'm wishing you all a fantastic week ahead. Please remember to take care of yourselves, but especially in these hard times when people are struggling maybe emotionally or financially. Remember that it's very important to take care of each other. I'm looking forward to seeing you all in the next video and see you then. Goodbye.