Um, look, we're 10 days away from the first notice day of delivery for the March silver contract. And I think people really need to understand what this means. Um, as of Friday, there was 58,770 contracts that were left, open interest, as it's called, that could stand for delivery. Each contract is 5,000 ounces. So, that's 294 million ounces open interest right now for the March contract. Yeah, a bunch of it has rolled to May to the May contract because there was about 400 million ounces a week ago.
So about a 100 million ounces have rolled to to May which is the next big delivery month, not April. It's it's May. And that's normal, right? But it's still really very huge that we have 300 million ounces open this close to first notice. So I think what I take away from that is not a COMX default but even half of the open interest actually decided to stand for delivery. You're talking uh 150 million ounces that would need to get sourced, right? The problem with that is that the registered silver
category that is the available silver backing the contracts available to deliver is about 90 million ounces. Right? So you know do the math. Uh if demand for delivery spikes, COMX has two options. Either drain registered in inventory very fast uh which would be I guess a very serious draw down or you have the price of immediacy increases where you have forced incentives. Premiums will increase uh exchange for physicals will increase. They will try and get people to roll to May uh by by incentivizing cash settlements with a
premium. Anything to keep metal uh needle anything to keep metal from from leaving. And um >> are you curious about investing in gold and silver but feel held back by fear or confusion? This ebook is designed especially for new investors who want clarity, not complexity. It breaks down gold and silver trading strategies in a simple, practical way. No jargon, no hype. Why wait? Hurry up. Please visit this link to get your copy today and use code Dundeep for a huge discount. More than 1,000 people took the first step
with this ebook. And today they're living proof that smart investing changes lives. Start investing fearlessly, wisely, and with a clear strategy. In my opinion, this is how the stress shows up. It's not in price, but it's in the delivery mechanisms and the delivery mechanics. And when the paper claims tower over the deliverable silver, I think the market um is calm until it isn't. And so I think really what you're looking at is even a portion of this stands for delivery. 20% stands
for delivery. You're talking what um 60 million ounces of the 90 million. This is a problem. And um yeah, so I think that's to me the biggest issue right now. What I'm watching is we'll see what happens over the next 10 days. Uh at the same time, you still have this big $10 premium in Shanghai uh over the western price that this arbitrage is not going away. They're continuing to incentivize the the people here in the west who have the ability to buy cheap 75 bucks or whatever and sell it for 85 bucks. In
China, a lot of people say, "Well, what about the the um the difference in price is is the uh the tax the no, the VAT tax, right? Not not tariffs, that there's a VAT tax, which is true, but it's not true, right? These are people not quite understanding the mechanics. The VAT tax is really there, but it is it's the responsibility of the recipient because when metal is delivered to Shanghai and you get that $10 arbitrage spread, you deliver 50 million ounces at 10 bucks, you just made 500 million $500
million. Uh that VAT tax is the responsibility of the recipient when it leaves when it leaves the Shanghai exchange. So it's not paid until it leaves. If it stays there, there is no tax. So, in other words, that arbitrage is significant enough at this point for a $10 uh premium plus like a 13 or 14 or 15% tax. They couldn't care less. They want the bullion. And so, this is all, I believe, a static. You have to view the broader landscape. You have to stay calm. View the broader landscape.
Interpret it for what it genuinely genuinely represents. And I I believe yes, the turbulence is enough to rattle a lot of people. But look, silver is the warning signal in the tunnel. And uh I believe it's revealing a synthetic market constructed by banks. Um that that trade leverage, not tangible metal and authentic demand is emerging in Shanghai and price formation is migrating there. It's departing London. It's departing New York. And as long as the western synthetic market remains
detached from Shanghai like it is now, the PHY physical silver will continue being drawn out of the west and shipped to where it's appreciated. And look, you look the unsettling part, it's even becoming constrained in Shanghai with premiums beginning to surge. And and I believe that's why to me the forwards and the futures are beginning to seem nearly undeliverable for many participants. This is why you're witnessing backwardation where the liquidity providers are facing difficulty securing metal. They can't
offset risk easily. Andy Shexman underscores a sharp divergence in the markets. While retail participants pile into the so-called magnificent seven equities, the real movement is developing in silver. He notes that the first notice day is only 10 days away with 294 million ounces of paper obligations stacked against just 90 million ounces of registered silver. If merely 20% of these obligations are submitted for delivery, it could spark a widespread breakdown. Meanwhile, a $10 premium in China is encouraging physical
silver to migrate from the west to the east, intensifying the strain. The CME has increased margins so forcefully that refiners are now finding it difficult to function, further tightening supply. I've been stating since 2020 on your program, the central banks have decoded it from the from the global south. Stand for delivery gradually. Don't execute it too quickly. Everyone says, "Why don't they just unleash trillions of dollars at once?" Cuz you destroy yourself. You bite the hand that feeds you. They've
been strategic at siphoning the exchanges all across the globe. And that gradual, subtle, stepbystep aspect, people can't tolerate. It's too repetitive. It's too gradual. It's it's a non-event. But as you can observe, we're approaching the stage where they're exhausting the accessible silver to deliver. And that to me is all you need to observe. on top of who's been standing for delivery every single month, month after month over month over month over month for billions and
billions and billions of dollars. They don't engage in this for amusement. What you're witnessing right now is simply the turbulence designed to distract the rest of us from the trail from the path and herd into the largest surge into global US equities in history. They want the rest of us confined with the uh with the rest of the flock. At the same time, you have billionaire David Einhorn. I don't know if you read that report, but he believes that that gold is well on its course to becoming the world's
primary reserve asset. This is someone who manages one of the largest hedge funds in the world. and he's asserting that it's already supplanting treasuries as we've discussed for the last several years as central banks reserve asset because the trust in this framework both fiscal and macro outlook is deteriorating. I've never witnessed a market like this. Never ever. I mean, let's return to the pandemic. Premiums on junk. We were paying $9 over spot for 4 years. Anyone willing to sell us as
much as they would offer, we would pay in bucks over spot. Yes, valued viewers, now I will share today's developments in the economy and precious metals. Today's global economic landscape is dominated by rising uncertainty in the United States and its spillover effects on markets around the world. In the US, consumer confidence in February 2026 improved modestly with the conference board's index rising to 91.2 2 from 89 in January, signaling some stabilization in sentiment after earlier weakness.
Even though sentiment levels remain below recession warning thresholds and job market concerns persist with job finding difficulty rising to a multi-year high, labor market stress and elevated inflation expectations continue to cloud broad economic optimism. Meanwhile, major economists are flagging risks that the stock market has decoupled from economic fundamentals, warning that elevated valuations and speculative flows could precipitate a significant market selloff, potentially affecting all asset classes, including
precious metals and crypto. On the precious metals front, gold and silver prices have been volatile, but remain a key focal point for global investors navigating high uncertainty. According to the latest market data, gold's price recently traded around $5,159 per ounce, slightly down from recent highs, but still significantly elevated on a year-over-year basis with prices up more than 70% compared to the same period last year. Silver is similarly elevated, trading near $87 per ounce despite short-term pullbacks. Today's
data shows a small pullback in gold and silver with gold slipping approximately 1.4% on profit taking and a stronger US dollar and silver dipping slightly as traders weighed macroeconomic data and tariff uncertainties ahead of key policy developments. Gold and silver ETF flows also reacted to political and macro pressures with some ETF vehicles sliding up to 3% as traders assess tariff uncertainty and global risk sentiment. The broader backdrop in metals markets remains dominated by US tariff politics
and geopolitical friction, particularly ongoing tensions regarding trade policy and UD Middle East dynamics, which have periodically driven safe haven demand for precious metals. Some reports highlight that previous policy moves, including a temporary 15% universal tariff, helped lift gold and silver prices as markets priced in potential global trade disruptions. Though legal and congressional constraints now complicate the outlook, from a technical standpoint, recent market analysis points to potential breakout patterns
for both gold and silver as renewed tariff chaos and riskoff behavior drive flows into these traditional stores of value. Even as mixed macro data and dollar strength produce volatility on broader economic data, while consumer confidence has shown some resilience, underlying growth remains subdued with slower GDP expansion in late 2025 and inflation readings still above central bank targets, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to pivot on interest rates. These mixed signals have contributed to market volatility and
increased interest in alternative assets like precious metals. In summary, US economic sentiment ticks higher, but growth remains fragile. Major economists warn of speculative risks and potential market stress. Gold $5,159 per Oz and silver $87 per Oz. Prices retract slightly amid dollar strength and profit taking. ETF flows and tariff uncertainty influence metals markets. Geopolitical and macro risks keep safe haven demand elevated. These developments set the stage for continued volatility in both economic indicators
and precious metals, positioning gold and silver as critical assets to watch as investors recalibrate positions amid mixed macro data and shifting global risk dynamics. If your priority right now is not chasing returns, but protecting what took decades to build, I've put together a private road map linked below. If your priority right now is not chasing returns, but protecting what took decades to build, I've put together a private road map linked below.
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