Hi, I'm Greg Hunter. Welcome to USA Watchdog.com. With us once again, one of the most asked for guests on the site, Dr. Jim Willie. He has a PhD in statistics from Carnegie Melon University. Dr. Jim Willie, thank you for joining us today on USADog.com. >> Well, thanks. Thanks for having me back on. >> I want to continue your intro here. You also are the publisher of the hattick letter that can be found on goldenjackass.com and you have been writing a lot about what the future looks like. I've been
following you for years and you've been pretty spot-on and that's what I want to lead off with. I have been getting so many conflicting views and hearing so many convicting conflicting views uh from we're going to have a collapse in 2012. We didn't. We're going to have a collapse in 2013. I don't know if that's going to happen. Some people say oh no that's not going to happen. Low percent chance slow burn. Other people say that this is going to go on indefinitely.
Other people say don't know when it's going to happen, but the dollar's going to collapse. Uh and you know, I just there's Jim uh uh Rogers uh the famed investor Jim Rogers had been out recently and he's been especially uh he's been a little dodgy on exactly what's going to happen, but he thinks something big is going to happen and he has gold and silver and he's hoping to uh you know position his families just his family and his friends just before this happened. What is your view uh
near-term and a little longer term about what what's your view of what's going on? >> Well, I I I think in very plain terms, in my view, we had a systemic breakdown in 2007 and we had a visible breakdown in 2008 and then >> welcome to Gold Silver News, your go to destination for all things economics and finance. Whether you're an experienced investor, an inquisitive student, or just someone who wants to stay ahead in today's everchanging economic landscape, you've come to the right place. Now,
we'll show you the best scenes of the latest interview. But first, smash the subscribe button, hit the like button, and send us super thanks if you find our daily recaps valuable. Enjoy the episode. >> That was the layman brothers. 07 was the subprime mortgages and then we had further breakdown in 2010 when Europe started to fracture. Then we got more breakdown in 2011 when QE was announced. Now we got further breakdown in 2013 with the gold market ambushes. So to say when's the breakdown going to
happen? I usually have a sassy response to my clients. Where have you been? It's in progress. So, what we've got is a lot of breakdowns in progress in a chain reaction leading to a climax. I don't denigrate guys like Rogers at all. Not at all. If he can't identify it, well, join the club. Neither can we. Neither can the best of the forecasters. We're leading to a big event. We got breakdowns in numerous structural elements of the financial system. You just take your P. I I could make a list
10 long. They're all breaking down. We don't know what the actual trigger is going to be, but I mean, I'm I'm pointing to Deutsche Bank. I think Deutsche Bank is is possibly going to be the one big bank they cannot control, and that's where you're going to get the big breakdown with contagion, hitting numerous Western banks and hitting numerous important markets like sovereign bonds. So, we're leading to a climax. We're getting a chain reaction of breakdown events. They're in
progress. >> Jim, I got to give you some credit here. Uh about 3 weeks before Deutsche Bank got downgraded along with Barlay's uh bank over in uh Europe in UK and then and uh in Germany, Deutsche Bank and then Barclays in in the UK. You were saying, "Hey, there are three banks that go to bed every night." Something to the effect that they're having hard time opening their doors in the morning. Extraordinary measures are are being done to keep them open. And one of them that you named was Deutsche Bank and lo
and behold a few weeks later it was downgraded along with Barlays. So So your theme is there could be one big bank that starts this daisy chain of default around the globe. Yeah. And and Deutsche Bank is different. Notice that a year ago Barclays was in trouble legally over Liveore, but nothing happened. Well, they're very protected in London. Deutsche Bank's DIFFERENT. THEY THEY MAY HAVE BEEN PROTECTED, but I call it the new sheriff in town. something big is going on with a higher power and and that higher power enabled
them to drain 5,000 tons of gold last March, April, May, and June out of London. 5,000 metric tonses. >> Wow. >> The same force came down on Deutsche Bank and and they cannot stop what's happening. Uh they're they're get a part. BUT THE THE MOST IMPORTANT THING TO REMEMBER ABOUT about Deutsche Bank is they're involved in everything. They're involved in all the sovereign bonds. They're involved in the Japanese bonds, UK guilts. They're involved in US treasuries. And now their hands are tied
because of prosecution. And I think HALF OF THEIR VICE PRESIDENTS HAVE flipped and are cooperating with Interpol. You cannot man the desks in that environment. >> So this leads us to the Treasury complex. and you've been uh banging the drub about uh that uh they're the US Treasury is going to be, you know, losing they're going to be losing control of the US Treasury bond. And there are a lot of dark forces out there that are are wanting to go after these interest rate swaps and are are tired of
the suppressed interest rates, tired of the money printing that the US is, hey, we can buy, you know, oil and tennis shoes and and uh consumer electronics with our printed money. And there's a lot of forces around the world say, no, no, no. It's this party is coming to an end. I I have two opinions on this and I don't like to say, "Hey, look, I I'm on both sides, therefore I'm not committing." I'm committing to the out of control because I I firmly believe we're seeing a chain reaction of of
breakdowns that that is historic, that is of magnitudes never seen before on Earth in the modern era. But I I'd like to point out the things that are holding it together, keeping it under control. But, you know, let let's just start off with with this live stress test uh that Bernani conducted in in late May and June. He called it they call the press calls it the taper talk. Okay, that's fine. That's fine. But what was it? WELL, IT WAS A STRESS TEST to find out what in the world would break down and
collapse, you know, wi with absent buyers and falling prices across the world in the major markets. And the answer was everything. [laughter] So, the risk exposure breakdown for toward collapse was seen as universal. Now we're seeing the Fed come out and say, "Well, we don't just have a dual mandate of price inflation and maximum employment, but we must we must now guard financial stability of of the financial systems." Okay, like it wasn't important before. Uh like maybe what
they're doing with QE has destabilized the entire world. Or better put, how about that the conclusion is slowly coming to be that the quantitative easing and debt monetization, the bond monetization, the Fed purchase financial table. Okay, that's what I think. Recall the speech two weeks ago by Bernanchi Bernance uh Bernani the great flinch. He blinked. >> Oh yes, he did. >> He blinked big and the dollar fell hard. We also had carnage in the bond market. Um the last WEEK OF JUNE, CENTRAL BANK
sold $ 32.5 billion dollar of Treasury bond one week. And also global funds, I'm not talking US, I'm talking global funds sold $23.5 billion worth of Treasury bonds. INSIDE THE US, bond funds dumped 14.5 billion, setting a record, topping the previous week of 12 billion, which also was a record. Now, we've got a a ma a major liquidity crunch going on. Foreign governors governments are are in great need of of cash. They're they're selling their treasury bonds now to some extent for
stimulus, for bailouts. Let me back let me back you up here on this. John Williams over at shadowstats.com came out recently and you've been watching 80% 90%. Now it's over 100 I think it's 103% of the Treasury bonds are bought have been bought by the Federal Reserve. So that kind of dovetales in with the information you're getting is that okay so if they're selling who's the buyer? Looks like the Fed is the buyer of last resort. This is massive over 100% monetization. I mean
nobody's buying. Everybody's selling. It looks like the Fed is forced to buy it all. >> When the Fed sets up QE and then QE2 and then QE68, I call it QE to infinity. I called it that 2 years ago. You did when they said their first QE. I said there'll be a QE2. There'll be a QE3. People were saying, "Oh, no, no, it's just temporary." No. I said in '09 that the 0% is going to stand forever until the debt defaults. No, they said it's just 6 or 8 months. No, you need to Okay. WHAT
WHAT THEY DID WITH ALL THESE BOND monetization programs is to tell the world, "Hey, look, uh there are no buyers for this garbage. Bring it to our window. We'll buy it." They're the they're the buyer of last resort. They're they're balance sheet at the Fed is over $3 trillion now. Oh, yes. It's mostly toxic. And I believe there's going to be a restructure of the Federal Reserve when they resign. But let's look at some of the the positive under control elements for the Fed and
the Treasury bonds because there's a big question. How come it hasn't broken down yet? How how CAN THEY KEEP IT GOING? That's right. Everybody's asking that. Why? I mean, I've heard PhDs, you're one of them, uh, and and many PhDs, Paul Craig Roberts and, uh, other, uh, financial people, one of the universal quotes that I've gotten from people when I interview them, smart people say, you know, I'm surprised it hasn't broken down already. And I guess you're going
to give us the answer why it hasn't broken down already. It It's amazing that some of these so-called PhD experts don't know what's going on. I I pregnant pause there. I'm the other people who claim to be experts in in finance who don't know about the Exchange Stabilization Fund run by the Department of Treasury. It's the most powerful office in all of the world's finance. What they do is they have their fingers in every single financial market and every single financial instrument in the
world. We're talking about a trillion dollar office. They don't operate with spread trades. I I'm I've been educated a bit by my friend and colleague Rob Kirby. He's a very bright guy. He's got excellent experience in Toronto dealing with bonds, bond trading, uh derivatives tied to bonds, and I don't want to misspeak about what his other qualifications are. They're vast. All right. The bonds that are set up by the exchange stabilization fund, I'm going to call it the ESF. the
ESF sets up. They they're not bond spreads. They go in there and they just march in and and bang, they put on some big demand using leverage, using all kinds of instruments, their futures contracts, their interest rate swaps. They're all kinds of things with phony demand tied to them. That's why like I called in 2010 and 11 the great migration to bonds. They called it the the flight to quality. There was no such thing. How is Morgan Stanley putting on $8.5 trillion of interest rate swaps?
All right. So, on the other side, you've got the counter parties, the bond dealers. They must scramble to to purchase this staggering US Treasury bond volume. It must be done in offset for the Department of Treasury's ESF. The exchange stabilization fund is enormous in their volume. That explains some of the failures to deliver. Now my it wasn't exactly a joke. My harsh criticism 10 years ago, but we first started to see failures to deliver and then again in 2005, six and seven that
the the Fed also relies on interest rate swaps and Morgan Stanley is their standing harlot on Wall Street to execute them. They've got between 20 to one leverage and 50 to1 leverage. It creates bogus demand. They've also got the forward rate agreements. I believe they're on the OTC. Not certain about that. Not sure where they are. But they help with the interest rate swaps and the forward rate agreements keep things under control. Not only that, but the Fed with the Department of Treasury at
their side has the Internal Revenue Service. Don't ever forget the income stream from withholding on salaries. It it's the the payroll deduction withholdings. You probably have one yourself with with your corporation. You pay weekly or monthly or bimonthly into this. It's a tremendous stream. It works kind of like the mining firms with their stream of the gold and silver output. Well, the Department of Treasury has its income stream with the IRS and their tax funds. So, the Fed has got all these different tools with the
Treasury at their side, but they can't keep things under control. Well, notice that a year ago you had the London Whale derivative accident. Now, expect another London Whale sighting. That was not about Forex derivatives and swaps. No, not at all. They claimed that, but if you look at the two or 3 months prior to that, you'll see that the those sovereign bonds are all doing very well. They were improving. No, it was about interest rate swaps because of the quickly moving Treasury bond yields like
for the 10-year. So, how is it going to get out of control and what's it going to look like to the guy on the street? Because I'm you're saying that there are multiple breakdowns going on. One of them is got to be uh city of Detroit. That's the canary in the coal mine that's lying on the floor dead 9 billion underfunded pensions. So, what is the out of control going to look like? That they're going to lose control. They've been keeping a lid on it. You just explained how with interest rate swaps
and all this phony demand for the Treasury Department. How are they going to get out of control? Okay, as as preface, let me just finish off with a a conclusion. I'm 30% in the camp of things under control, but I'm 70% in the camp. That's two for one, that it's out of control. They're on QE to infinity. Why do they announce a QE3? Because nothing improved from QE, QE1, and Operation Twist. They call it stimulus, but it's not. that not grasp. They call it stimulus and it's 0%. In
the past, it was stimulus because American corporations could go out, use the cheap money, do some capital investment, buy some equipment, buy a building, open up shop, hire people. But now they don't do that because China is on the scene. So the QE is a breakdown symptom. It's a collapse symptom. And now with this live stress test that proved THAT THE WHOLE SYSTEM WOULD collapse on 20 fronts. You name it, the Indian stock market, you name it, doesn't matter. They all fell apart. So now they've got political
permission to do QE forever. That's not a sign of being into under control. And what it points out is that whatever unintended consequence came or comes from QE will be exacerbated and that is causes hedging in the market, purchase of hard assets, purchase of energy, purchase of metals, purchase of land and driving up their prices. As a result, the cost structure rises and the whole system must deal with lower profitability, cutting out businesses, trimming down Bankruptcies shut down business segments, shut down
businesses, and you get the liquidation of capital. That's what I call capital destruction that the PhD economists slept through in their PhD programs. The out of control has three very big elements. The big banks now for three years have putting have been had have been taking advantage of a very big treasury bond carry trade. They borrow 0%. They buy the long bonds 10 and 30 years and they put on futures contracts. >> More false demand. IT >> IT'S FALSE DEMAND. BUT THE IMPORTANT
THING regarding out of control is with rising rates, they're losing money at a leveraged rate. >> That's right. >> So, they're going to unwind it. And they even have a name for it in Wall Street. Convexity. meaning that little increases in interest rates force big sales of the leveraged bonds which bring about more doubled and tripled and 10 times as many sales. So guess who's going to have to lap that up on the ground? The Fed again. The second big force is that foreigners are selling Treasury bonds
OUT OF DISGUST. THEY'RE NOT PART of the decisions at the Fed. They don't get a decision on whether they go to QE3. They didn't like Huie too. They Operation Twist was different because that allowed the foreigners to say, "We don't like these these high-risk 10 and 30-year bonds. Let's swap them with your twist into the 3month, 9year, and one year, 2year so we can wait YOU YOU IDIOTS OUT AND WE can redeem without selling. They just expire and mature." All right. But the the
foreigners are also disgusted. So they're using their treasury bonds in all kinds of different manner to pay off debts in acquisition. This has got a name also not convexity like the leverage uh abandonment of the carry trade. This is called indirect exchange. I give you an example. I I think I mentioned this a couple months ago. Rosenef, which is now twice as Exxon Mobile, >> bought out British petroleum. AND WHAT DO THEY PAY these London bankers in on the payoff for the TNK BP big oil energy
firm in? They pay them in treasury bonds. When China pays Russia for their oil in Brazil, IT'S AN OIL AND GAS BUSINESS. WELL, IT WENT BUST. LOOK FOR THE CHINESE TO BUY IT UP. WHAT DO YOU THINK THEY'RE GOING TO USE TO [clears throat] pay for the acquisition? Treasury bonds. I called this a couple months ago return to sender. Uh treasury bonds return to sender because they're broken. They're toxic and the foreigners DON'T HAVE A VOICE. ALL RIGHT. THESE ARE VERY BIG THINGS. But uh I I really
believe that the interest rate swap is the zinger. It's the live wire. It's the third rail. We get big changes in the 10-year. Uh just focus on the TNX, the 10-year Treasury. It's gone from 1.7 in May to 2.7 now. >> Yeah. >> Normally 30 basis points is enough to disrupt interest rate swaps. Compare compare the treasure bonds to a giant tower like the senior tower is 110 stories. Think of a tower 200 stories and because it's so high needs buttresses to support the side at say 50
stories, 80 stories and 120. Those buttresses are the interest rate swap derivatives. They don't react well to high winds. I don't care if it's wind from the east or wind from the west. I don't care if therefore that if it's rising INTEREST RATES OR FALLING interest rates, it disrupts the interest rate swap derivative complex. And now the US banks are more insolvent than ever. And they don't have the capital to defend these interest rate swaps. They have inadequate ammunition. And
furthermore, the Swiss castle leader of the world, Basil, the self-appointed lord of the world, Basil, has instituted Basel 3 rules. They must have more capital. They must now bring to their balance sheet their derivatives. Why? Because Basel wants to collapse the system. So they can impose banker fascism when state >> when do you think the the collapse would come? When what's your what's your timeline by >> I think I think that the 57 the 52nd day of September >> okay who who knows but when it blows
it's going to blow fast. It's going to go boom. >> I will say this and this is my my you know semi-intelligent response [laughter] after my flip. take a look at the time between important events. >> Uh you've said this before is a very good point. >> And they're getting shorter. >> Yes. >> Now we're getting bigger conflicts in other response summit meeting. Why? because of Snowden and the database security easedropping. So, the United States might not attend a
world summit. Huh. The United States already is really not invited to the G20s. And you know, some people think that the G7 slapped around the G20 uh in Anchora, Turkey in the beginning of April. I'm sorry, beginning of June. This is just two months ago. Some people think that the G7 came in and say, "Hey, wait a minute. You can't do that. We're we're bigger than you. We're more powerful." No, they went to Anchora begging. They begged for a delay. And what was the agenda at that G20 in Turkey in the
first week of June? It was the nuts and bolts of gold trade settlement, the dollar alternative, the nondoll trade settlement system. it. What they compromised in June was, "All right, we'll give you idiots in the G7, you powerless finance ministers from your sovereign bankrupt countries with your infinite monetization to bail out your banking system and your infinite deficits on the fiscal side. We'll give you till September because in Moscow you ain't going to be invited. You try to
crash that like you did in Anchora, you're not going to get through the door. You're not going to get through the airport. A dollar alternative. And a lot of naive people think, "Oh, the dollar is going to rule the waves forever." Well, the US military just had a setback in Egypt. Is anybody paying attention? You know, I got some other news for you. There's some other people who are very misguided who think that the US military still rules. Well, in Easter Sunday 2010, a bunch of Arab billionaires,
couple hundred of them, made a decision in 2010 that Russia and China would be the new protector in the in the Persian Gulf. There are other things. Why do we have saber rattling about an Iran war in 2004 and 2005 and 06 07 again in '08 again in [laughter] ' 09 again in 10 again in 2011 again in 2012 but no Iran war. It's because THE US BACKED OFF. The Russians have the Sunburn and Onyx missiles which are a generation ahead and far more accurate and deadly than the US's cruise missile WHICH IS 25
YEARS OLD. the US backs down. It's not that the Russians and Chinese won't challenge. No, no, no. Just the opposite. WE GOT A LOT OF THINGS that are out of control. You know, back to Deutsche Bank for a second in these these swaps. One thing that's coming out with Deutsche Bank is that they're forex swaps, not interest rate swap. They're forex currency swaps. They treat gold like currency. Isn't that Isn't that ironic? And you know, when that news gets out about the broken
swaps with Deutsche Bank and maybe some liquidations have to happen, maybe they're going to have to liquidate some of their euro and British pound and dollar swaps in favor of gold. Maybe we're going to see $100 increases in the gold price in single days because these [snorts] these swaps have gigantic leverage. I told I mentioned once in in a in a forum that it's 20 to1 leverage and and Rob Kirby just smacked me down and said, "Jim, try 50 to one." Some of them are 100 to one. All right. So, they
got leverage holding down gold and they're breaking in Deutsche Bank's portfolio. I gosh, you know, let's get to the gold question here. I want to wrap up with a gold question because uh I've heard a lot of information, a lot of reports that are coming out at least on the internet about this massive amount of vault uh liquidation. You gold is leaving vaults, gold is leaving uh you know uh GLD, silver is leaving SLV, uh JP Morgan vaults are getting hit. I mean they're losing tremendous amounts in in
a single night. Uh LBMA has, you know, as you said, has lost a lot of gold. Comx also what when are we going to get this failure to deliver or or maybe I better put I don't want to give you a specific date is a failure to deliver is a force majour is a yeah we cannot or will not deliver physical silver or gold when is that coming well I think it's already happening the same answer and it it happened in April uh in fact it it first happened with the MF Global incident in the I think it was right
around December 1st of 2011 They didn't want to have a default because that was the next morning, a default. So, they stole MF Global accounts. They didn't make the delivery for those silver. JP Morgan took the delivery for the silver. So, we're seeing disguise defaults already. April was another gold default. ABM Andrew came out in in late March and said, "We're not going to honor gold account redemptions." Two weeks later, London has the ambush because they were facing a default. Why
do we have the Mali war announced in in Northern Africa? It's because they can't meet the demand for repatriation. They already failed to deliver the German official account, the allocated account. So, they need a war in 7 years. That's exactly what the gold output is in Mali to meet the 350 tons for Germany. BUT, YOU KNOW, MORE SPECIFICALLY to to try not to be so evasive in in the answer again, we're getting more and more events happening closer and closer in the gold world. You [clears throat]
you've got now JP Morgan being recognized as having taken the July silver output from delivery in London. You're getting JP Morgan recognized as having its own clients. its registered clients abandoning [laughter] them in in the vaults. You're now getting recognition. These are smoking guns that the comics delivery in gold is matching the withdrawal from the back door out of GLD. You're getting high correlations of over 80%. >> Dear listeners, I was able to upload a portion of this interview which lasted
approximately 2 hours and 6 minutes due to YouTube rules. You can watch it in its entirety from the link in the description. Now, some brief information about Jim Willie will be given. Dr. Jim Willie is an analyst recognized in international finance and economic circles for his distinctive viewpoints. Commonly known simply as Dr. Jim Willie, he is often said to hold a doctorate in an economic related field. Though precise details about his academic record are not widely documented. He is best known for his work shared through
his website Golden Jackass as well as various online interviews and podcasts. His main areas of focus include fluctuations in the financial markets, central bank policies, currency trends, and particularly the future of gold and silver. A defining trait of Dr. Willy's commentary is his emphasis on precious metals, gold and silver, as critical pillars of the global monetary system. He argues that modern fiat currencies, especially the US dollar, suffer from structural problems stemming from central bank policies and the complex
nature of international finance. As a result, he foresees a scenario in which the dollar weakens while gold and silver strengthen. Dr. Willie is considered by many to be an unconventional financial commentator. His analyses often diverge from mainstream economic narratives, occasionally integrating views that some label as conspiracy theories. Yet, this alternative perspective has resonated with a community of followers who value his exploration of issues they believe are overlooked by mainstream media and
big financial institutions. Two, the Golden Jackass platform and content structure. Dr. Willie disseminates most of his research and opinions via his personal website, Golden Jackass. The unusual name is meant to highlight his unfiltered approach. He describes himself as presenting blunt truths without fear of reprisal. Many of the articles and reports he publishes on this site revolve around major geopolitical and macroeconomic developments. Typical topics on golden jackass include gold and silver market
analyses. Willie is known for predicting significant spikes in gold and silver prices. He argues that continuous monetary expansion by central banks will ultimately raise the value of precious metals while eroding confidence in fiat currencies. Critiques of the global dollar system. Willie believes the US dollar status as the dominant reserve currency will eventually weaken. He often cites the efforts of countries like China and Russia in developing alternative payment systems and goldbacked arrangements. Warnings of
financial crisis. Willie frequently points to risks that he says mainstream economists ignore, such as the overextension of credit, large-scale derivatives, and the excessive liquidity central banks have provided since past economic downturns. Geopolitical events and their economic effects. His analysis goes beyond pure economics to examine how geopolitics impacts commodity prices, trade flows, and especially the dollar standing in international markets. Some content on Golden Jackass is available only to subscribers. This
paid model supports his independent research, which he claims allows him to investigate topics not widely covered by mainstream financial analysts. Three, economic analysis philosophy and methods. Dr. Dr. Jim Willy's approach to economic commentary blends macroeconomic data with monetary and geopolitical factors, resulting in what many consider a heterodox style. Key aspects of his method include historical cycle analysis. He frequently references major financial crises such as the 1929 Great
Depression and the 1971 end of the gold standard to draw parallels with current policy missteps. He views economic cycles as influenced by political and social factors, not just by raw data. Debt and credit examination. Modern finance, according to Willie, is excessively reliant on debt. He emphasizes growing global debt levels and warns that they are unsustainable. Central bank balance sheets and leverage banking practices are frequent targets of his critiques. Comparative currency analysis. Willie tracks how key
currencies, the US dollar, the euro, the Chinese yuan, and the Russian ruble compete against each other. He underscores the role of gold reserves and potential gold backing as crucial in these contests. Geopolitical context. Willie treats diplomacy, strategic alliances, and military advantages as integral to economic outcomes. He sees global finance and politics as intertwined, asserting that a policy shift in one arena reverberates throughout the other. Reliance on alternative information sources. Willie
occasionally cites unverified or non- mainstream information, claiming that official data and media may conceal the full story. Critics argue that this tendency can lead to the spread of unsubstantiated conspiracy theories. Four, main core perspective, transformation of the monetary system. One of Dr. Willy's central thesis is that the global monetary system is undergoing a profound realignment. He believes that the post Bretonwoods world order in which the US dollar has enjoyed near hegemonic status, is coming to an
end or is on the brink of doing so. As central banks keep expanding their monetary bases, he expects rising inflation to push individuals and institutions toward tangible assets like precious metals. At the heart of this view is the idea of the coming end of the dollar or the demise of the petro dollar system. According to Willie, the following trends are evidence of this shift. Countries increasing gold reserves. Emerging markets including China, Russia, and Turkey have been accumulating gold potentially to
establish alternative payment frameworks involving gold. Petroleum trade in currencies other than the dollar. Willie cites China's moves to pay for oil and yuan as a direct challenge to the dollar's monopoly in global energy markets. Alternative payment systems, new networks to replace or supplement Swift, such as China CIP, could undermine the dollar's role in global trade and lessen its power as a vehicle of economic sanctions. Willie portrays these developments as gradual with many
going under reportported. The eventual result, in his view, would be a breakdown of the dollarcentric system that would profoundly disrupt financial institutions and national economies while boosting the position of gold, silver, and other real assets. Five, the role of precious metals, gold, and silver forecasts. Dr. Willie is particularly noted for his commentary on gold and silver. He argues that these metals have served as money throughout history and assume the role of safe havens in times of crisis. While central
banks can expand the money supply almost limitlessly, physical supplies of gold and silver remain finite, favoring these metals in the long run. He often alleges that gold and silver prices are manipulated or suppressed. According to this viewpoint, major banks use large volumes of paper gold futures contracts derivatives to depress spot prices as letting gold prices rise organically would highlight fiat currency's weaknesses. Willie also applies this argument to silver, contending that silver is likewise undervalued but
manipulated. Nevertheless, Willie believes that such price manipulation cannot persist indefinitely. A surge in physical demand, he argues, will sooner or later expose discrepancies in the paper market, leading to a dramatic revaluation of both gold and silver. In such a scenario, gold could rise well into the thousands of dollars per ounce, while silver might break into tripledigit territory, an outcome that could shake the entire global financial system. Six, the US economy and Federal Reserve criticisms. Given that Dr. Dr.
Jim Willie is primarily based in the United States. He frequently critiques the Federal Reserve Fed. He contends that the Fed's policies of quantitative easing and prolonged low interest rates have masked deeper problems while magnifying systemic risks. In his view, these policies only offer temporary fixes without addressing underlying debt and leverage issues. His key points of contention include unback money creation. Willie argues that the Fed's expansionary practices are disconnected
from real economic productivity. Over time, such policies lead to higher inflation, even if official statistics do not fully capture it. Banking system vulnerabilities. According to Willie, large US banks are more fragile than they appear due to their exposure to highly leveraged derivative products. Wealth disparity. He contends that Federal Reserve policies inflate asset markets. stocks, real estate, mainly benefiting the wealthy, while rising costs of living erode the purchasing power of lower and middle inome groups.
External debt and trade imbalances. Willie points to America's escalating national debt and trade deficits, predicting they will reduce trust in US Treasury bonds over time and threaten the dollar's reserve status. Willy's criticisms draw from independent research and alternative media sources, which he sees as less prone to presenting sanitized official narratives. While his supporters view him as exposing under reportported truths, critics accuse him of selective data usage or undue alarmism. Seven,
geopolitical analyses, East West economic rivalry. Dr. Jim Willie incorporates a geopolitical lens into much of his economic commentary. He posits that the world's financial and political power is shifting from Western nations, particularly the United States and the European Union, toward eastern powers like China and Russia. This shift, in Willy's view, involves energy resources, major trade corridors, and the struggle for technological advantage. Key points he often raises include the belt and road initiative.
Willie believes China's massive infrastructure project will reshape global trade routes, reduce reliance on the dollar, and accelerate Eurasian economic growth, goldbacked currency deals. He speculates about the possibility of China and Russia jointly introducing a goldbacked digital currency or forming a trade block that circumvents the dollar. Energy wars. Willie states that which currencies are used to settle oil and natural gas contracts is vital. If Russia shifts to selling energy in rubles or yuan or in
exchange for gold, he sees this as a direct threat to the petro dollar system, diplomatic and military tensions. He asserts that international tensions and conflicts can hasten financial decoupling leading to regional economic blocks and alternative payment networks that erode the dollar's reach. Willie often cites Russian, Chinese, or other non-western media sources to bolster his arguments, which tend to frame developments as part of a broader east-west struggle. While mainstream sources may find these views too stark
or speculative, Willie supporters regard them as a clearer portrayal of how global power balances are evolving. Eight supporters and critics in the realm of economics and finance. Dr. Jim Willie is considered an alternative analyst rather than part of the mainstream. This status has earned him a committed following while also drawing criticism from established economists. Supporters belief in expose of hidden realities. They see Willy's commentary as a revelation of financial manipulations overlooked by mainstream
channels. Precious metals enthusiasts, investors bullish on gold and silver tend to resonate with Willy's stance on the eventual surge in precious metal values. Those interested in conspiracy theories. Willy's emphasis on secret deals and under the radar developments appeals to people who suspect official narratives are incomplete. Critics accusations of excessive speculation. Critics argue that many of Willy's forecasts have either failed to materialize or lack solid backing. Disconnected from market realities. Some
economists see Willy's views as too extreme, diverging significantly from conventional market indicators. Promotion of conspiracy theories. Central to their critique is that Willie relies heavily on data or rumors that mainstream economics deem unverified. Dr. Jim Willie often counters these critiques by stating that time will prove him right. His followers tend to regard short-term inaccuracies as less important than the larger long-term trends he highlights. Nine major themes in publications and interviews. Dr. Jim
Willie appears regularly on podcasts, in online interviews, and through articles in which he reasserts or refineses his views about global finance. Recurring themes include monetary policies and the prospect of inevitable collapse. Willie often labels the ongoing wave of central bank easing as unsustainable and believes it will lead to an unprecedented debt bubble, global trade and the dollar standing. He focuses on the likelihood of the dollar losing its primacy in oil transactions. In his view, geopolitical powerhouses like
China and Russia are accelerating this shift. Manipulation in metal markets. According to Willie, the only reason gold and silver are not trading at much higher levels is price suppression, which he believes will eventually fail. Investment suggestions. While stopping short of giving direct investment advice, Willie regularly emphasizes the value of holding physical gold and silver. He sometimes comments on real estate, cryptocurrencies, or other commodities, but his primary stance remains consistent. Tangible assets are
a hedge against potential financial turmoil. 10. Dr. Jim Willy's forecasts and their accuracy. Like many financial commentators, Dr. Jim Willie has made various predictions over the years. While some have aligned partially with real outcomes, others have not materialized according to his expected timelines. Critics highlight inaccurate or postponed forecasts, especially concerning the swift collapse of the dollar or hyperinflation that did not occur as predicted. Willie and his followers attribute such delays to
factors like ongoing market manipulation or new geopolitical agreements that slow down the anticipated shifts. They also stress that his analyses revolve more around long-term structural issues than short-term market timing and that certain economic events might simply be unfolding later than initially expected. At the same time, supporters note that Willie accurately pointed out the continued expansion of central bank balance sheets and the trend of countries accumulating gold reserves. Whether these represent unique insights
or broader trends also recognized by mainstream analysts is open to debate. 11. Conspiracy theories and critiques of mainstream economics. Dr. Jim Willie sometimes embraces viewpoints described as conspiracy theories, such as allegations of covert arrangements among global banking elites or claims that certain financial institutions deliberately engineer crisis. These comments often lack direct support in official reports or academic literature, undermining their acceptance by mainstream experts. Nevertheless,
Willy's core audience contends that the very absence of this information in major news outlets is evidence of systematic cover-ups. This tension results in a polarized reception. While some commend him for tackling subjects that major economists avoid, others dismiss his arguments as relying on rumor or anecdotal evidence. 12. Building an audience and media strategy. Dr. Jim Willy's influence stems in large part from digital media. Rather than appearing frequently on television networks or in major newspapers, he has
cultivated a following through. His website Golden Jackass. The subscription-based model allows him to finance his research and post in-depth analyses without relying on traditional editorial norms. Podcasts and interviews. Alternative finance channels invite him to discuss his views, giving him a platform free from mainstream editorial constraints. Social media. Willie uses social media platforms to share shorter commentaries and link to his more extensive articles or interviews. This approach targets a
niche yet dedicated audience, particularly those skeptical of mainstream financial narratives. Willy's unconventional or controversial theories find an environment of fewer restrictions online, aligning with audiences seeking alternative takes on global economics. 13. Dr. Jim Willy's place in the financial world in mainstream banking circles or academia. Dr. Jim Willie is not widely cited. Instead, he operates as an independent commentator, an outsider who both intrigues and polarizes observers.
Critics consider his warnings overly dire and his reliance on unofficial data problematic, but the financial turmoil of previous crises has also made many investors more open to unconventional perspectives. Those who value his work stress how events like the 2008 financial crisis validated skepticism toward institutional analyses. Willy's arguments about the unsustainability of constant monetary easing and the precarious nature of the global debt burden echo broader concerns, though he often frames them more bluntly. Overall,
Dr. Jim Willie sits at the intersection of alternative finance commentary and mainstream critique. While he has a loyal core following, he is also subject to ongoing scrutiny by economists and analysts who question his methods and conclusions. 14. Conclusion and assessment. Dr. Jim Willie stands out in alternative finance circles through his strong critiques of central banks, fervent support for gold and silver, and emphasis on significant geopolitical realignments. His central premise is that the current global financial order,
especially the dollar-based system, is unsustainable. According to Willie, everinccreasing debt and persistent market manipulation will eventually trigger a major monetary crisis. one in which holders of real assets, particularly precious metals, will thrive. Yet, questions remain as to whether his most dramatic predictions will unfold precisely as he envisions and on what timeline. His track record has been mixed, and skepticism about certain forecasts lingers. Supporters respond by emphasizing that Willy's
perspective is best understood as a warning about underlying fragility. fragilityities that may require more time to materialize or that might manifest in ways not easily predicted. Regardless of these debates, Dr. Jim Willie has established a definite niche. His analyses, whether embraced or doubted, compel audiences to consider alternative possibilities and deeper layers of the global financial system. For that reason, those who engage with Willy's writings often do so with a blend of caution and curiosity,
recognizing that while his approach can veer into unconventional territory, it may also provide a valuable counterpoint to mainstream narratives. [music] >> Don't forget to like our video and subscribe for our channel. >> [music]
Hi, I'm Greg Hunter. Welcome to USA Watchdog.com. With us once again, one of the most asked for guests on the site, Dr. Jim Willie. He has a PhD in statistics from Carnegie Melon University. Dr. Jim Willie, thank you for joining us today on USADog.com. >> Well, thanks. Thanks for having me back on. >> I want to continue your intro here. You also are the publisher of the hattick letter that can be found on goldenjackass.com and you have been writing a lot about what the future looks like. I've been
following you for years and you've been pretty spot-on and that's what I want to lead off with. I have been getting so many conflicting views and hearing so many convicting conflicting views uh from we're going to have a collapse in 2012. We didn't. We're going to have a collapse in 2013. I don't know if that's going to happen. Some people say oh no that's not going to happen. Low percent chance slow burn. Other people say that this is going to go on indefinitely.
Other people say don't know when it's going to happen, but the dollar's going to collapse. Uh and you know, I just there's Jim uh uh Rogers uh the famed investor Jim Rogers had been out recently and he's been especially uh he's been a little dodgy on exactly what's going to happen, but he thinks something big is going to happen and he has gold and silver and he's hoping to uh you know position his families just his family and his friends just before this happened. What is your view uh
near-term and a little longer term about what what's your view of what's going on? >> Well, I I I think in very plain terms, in my view, we had a systemic breakdown in 2007 and we had a visible breakdown in 2008 and then >> welcome to Gold Silver News, your go to destination for all things economics and finance. Whether you're an experienced investor, an inquisitive student, or just someone who wants to stay ahead in today's everchanging economic landscape, you've come to the right place. Now,
we'll show you the best scenes of the latest interview. But first, smash the subscribe button, hit the like button, and send us super thanks if you find our daily recaps valuable. Enjoy the episode. >> That was the layman brothers. 07 was the subprime mortgages and then we had further breakdown in 2010 when Europe started to fracture. Then we got more breakdown in 2011 when QE was announced. Now we got further breakdown in 2013 with the gold market ambushes. So to say when's the breakdown going to
happen? I usually have a sassy response to my clients. Where have you been? It's in progress. So, what we've got is a lot of breakdowns in progress in a chain reaction leading to a climax. I don't denigrate guys like Rogers at all. Not at all. If he can't identify it, well, join the club. Neither can we. Neither can the best of the forecasters. We're leading to a big event. We got breakdowns in numerous structural elements of the financial system. You just take your P. I I could make a list
10 long. They're all breaking down. We don't know what the actual trigger is going to be, but I mean, I'm I'm pointing to Deutsche Bank. I think Deutsche Bank is is possibly going to be the one big bank they cannot control, and that's where you're going to get the big breakdown with contagion, hitting numerous Western banks and hitting numerous important markets like sovereign bonds. So, we're leading to a climax. We're getting a chain reaction of breakdown events. They're in
progress. >> Jim, I got to give you some credit here. Uh about 3 weeks before Deutsche Bank got downgraded along with Barlay's uh bank over in uh Europe in UK and then and uh in Germany, Deutsche Bank and then Barclays in in the UK. You were saying, "Hey, there are three banks that go to bed every night." Something to the effect that they're having hard time opening their doors in the morning. Extraordinary measures are are being done to keep them open. And one of them that you named was Deutsche Bank and lo
and behold a few weeks later it was downgraded along with Barlays. So So your theme is there could be one big bank that starts this daisy chain of default around the globe. Yeah. And and Deutsche Bank is different. Notice that a year ago Barclays was in trouble legally over Liveore, but nothing happened. Well, they're very protected in London. Deutsche Bank's DIFFERENT. THEY THEY MAY HAVE BEEN PROTECTED, but I call it the new sheriff in town. something big is going on with a higher power and and that higher power enabled
them to drain 5,000 tons of gold last March, April, May, and June out of London. 5,000 metric tonses. >> Wow. >> The same force came down on Deutsche Bank and and they cannot stop what's happening. Uh they're they're get a part. BUT THE THE MOST IMPORTANT THING TO REMEMBER ABOUT about Deutsche Bank is they're involved in everything. They're involved in all the sovereign bonds. They're involved in the Japanese bonds, UK guilts. They're involved in US treasuries. And now their hands are tied
because of prosecution. And I think HALF OF THEIR VICE PRESIDENTS HAVE flipped and are cooperating with Interpol. You cannot man the desks in that environment. >> So this leads us to the Treasury complex. and you've been uh banging the drub about uh that uh they're the US Treasury is going to be, you know, losing they're going to be losing control of the US Treasury bond. And there are a lot of dark forces out there that are are wanting to go after these interest rate swaps and are are tired of
the suppressed interest rates, tired of the money printing that the US is, hey, we can buy, you know, oil and tennis shoes and and uh consumer electronics with our printed money. And there's a lot of forces around the world say, no, no, no. It's this party is coming to an end. I I have two opinions on this and I don't like to say, "Hey, look, I I'm on both sides, therefore I'm not committing." I'm committing to the out of control because I I firmly believe we're seeing a chain reaction of of
breakdowns that that is historic, that is of magnitudes never seen before on Earth in the modern era. But I I'd like to point out the things that are holding it together, keeping it under control. But, you know, let let's just start off with with this live stress test uh that Bernani conducted in in late May and June. He called it they call the press calls it the taper talk. Okay, that's fine. That's fine. But what was it? WELL, IT WAS A STRESS TEST to find out what in the world would break down and
collapse, you know, wi with absent buyers and falling prices across the world in the major markets. And the answer was everything. [laughter] So, the risk exposure breakdown for toward collapse was seen as universal. Now we're seeing the Fed come out and say, "Well, we don't just have a dual mandate of price inflation and maximum employment, but we must we must now guard financial stability of of the financial systems." Okay, like it wasn't important before. Uh like maybe what
they're doing with QE has destabilized the entire world. Or better put, how about that the conclusion is slowly coming to be that the quantitative easing and debt monetization, the bond monetization, the Fed purchase financial table. Okay, that's what I think. Recall the speech two weeks ago by Bernanchi Bernance uh Bernani the great flinch. He blinked. >> Oh yes, he did. >> He blinked big and the dollar fell hard. We also had carnage in the bond market. Um the last WEEK OF JUNE, CENTRAL BANK
sold $ 32.5 billion dollar of Treasury bond one week. And also global funds, I'm not talking US, I'm talking global funds sold $23.5 billion worth of Treasury bonds. INSIDE THE US, bond funds dumped 14.5 billion, setting a record, topping the previous week of 12 billion, which also was a record. Now, we've got a a ma a major liquidity crunch going on. Foreign governors governments are are in great need of of cash. They're they're selling their treasury bonds now to some extent for
stimulus, for bailouts. Let me back let me back you up here on this. John Williams over at shadowstats.com came out recently and you've been watching 80% 90%. Now it's over 100 I think it's 103% of the Treasury bonds are bought have been bought by the Federal Reserve. So that kind of dovetales in with the information you're getting is that okay so if they're selling who's the buyer? Looks like the Fed is the buyer of last resort. This is massive over 100% monetization. I mean
nobody's buying. Everybody's selling. It looks like the Fed is forced to buy it all. >> When the Fed sets up QE and then QE2 and then QE68, I call it QE to infinity. I called it that 2 years ago. You did when they said their first QE. I said there'll be a QE2. There'll be a QE3. People were saying, "Oh, no, no, it's just temporary." No. I said in '09 that the 0% is going to stand forever until the debt defaults. No, they said it's just 6 or 8 months. No, you need to Okay. WHAT
WHAT THEY DID WITH ALL THESE BOND monetization programs is to tell the world, "Hey, look, uh there are no buyers for this garbage. Bring it to our window. We'll buy it." They're the they're the buyer of last resort. They're they're balance sheet at the Fed is over $3 trillion now. Oh, yes. It's mostly toxic. And I believe there's going to be a restructure of the Federal Reserve when they resign. But let's look at some of the the positive under control elements for the Fed and
the Treasury bonds because there's a big question. How come it hasn't broken down yet? How how CAN THEY KEEP IT GOING? That's right. Everybody's asking that. Why? I mean, I've heard PhDs, you're one of them, uh, and and many PhDs, Paul Craig Roberts and, uh, other, uh, financial people, one of the universal quotes that I've gotten from people when I interview them, smart people say, you know, I'm surprised it hasn't broken down already. And I guess you're going
to give us the answer why it hasn't broken down already. It It's amazing that some of these so-called PhD experts don't know what's going on. I I pregnant pause there. I'm the other people who claim to be experts in in finance who don't know about the Exchange Stabilization Fund run by the Department of Treasury. It's the most powerful office in all of the world's finance. What they do is they have their fingers in every single financial market and every single financial instrument in the
world. We're talking about a trillion dollar office. They don't operate with spread trades. I I'm I've been educated a bit by my friend and colleague Rob Kirby. He's a very bright guy. He's got excellent experience in Toronto dealing with bonds, bond trading, uh derivatives tied to bonds, and I don't want to misspeak about what his other qualifications are. They're vast. All right. The bonds that are set up by the exchange stabilization fund, I'm going to call it the ESF. the
ESF sets up. They they're not bond spreads. They go in there and they just march in and and bang, they put on some big demand using leverage, using all kinds of instruments, their futures contracts, their interest rate swaps. They're all kinds of things with phony demand tied to them. That's why like I called in 2010 and 11 the great migration to bonds. They called it the the flight to quality. There was no such thing. How is Morgan Stanley putting on $8.5 trillion of interest rate swaps?
All right. So, on the other side, you've got the counter parties, the bond dealers. They must scramble to to purchase this staggering US Treasury bond volume. It must be done in offset for the Department of Treasury's ESF. The exchange stabilization fund is enormous in their volume. That explains some of the failures to deliver. Now my it wasn't exactly a joke. My harsh criticism 10 years ago, but we first started to see failures to deliver and then again in 2005, six and seven that
the the Fed also relies on interest rate swaps and Morgan Stanley is their standing harlot on Wall Street to execute them. They've got between 20 to one leverage and 50 to1 leverage. It creates bogus demand. They've also got the forward rate agreements. I believe they're on the OTC. Not certain about that. Not sure where they are. But they help with the interest rate swaps and the forward rate agreements keep things under control. Not only that, but the Fed with the Department of Treasury at
their side has the Internal Revenue Service. Don't ever forget the income stream from withholding on salaries. It it's the the payroll deduction withholdings. You probably have one yourself with with your corporation. You pay weekly or monthly or bimonthly into this. It's a tremendous stream. It works kind of like the mining firms with their stream of the gold and silver output. Well, the Department of Treasury has its income stream with the IRS and their tax funds. So, the Fed has got all these different tools with the
Treasury at their side, but they can't keep things under control. Well, notice that a year ago you had the London Whale derivative accident. Now, expect another London Whale sighting. That was not about Forex derivatives and swaps. No, not at all. They claimed that, but if you look at the two or 3 months prior to that, you'll see that the those sovereign bonds are all doing very well. They were improving. No, it was about interest rate swaps because of the quickly moving Treasury bond yields like
for the 10-year. So, how is it going to get out of control and what's it going to look like to the guy on the street? Because I'm you're saying that there are multiple breakdowns going on. One of them is got to be uh city of Detroit. That's the canary in the coal mine that's lying on the floor dead 9 billion underfunded pensions. So, what is the out of control going to look like? That they're going to lose control. They've been keeping a lid on it. You just explained how with interest rate swaps
and all this phony demand for the Treasury Department. How are they going to get out of control? Okay, as as preface, let me just finish off with a a conclusion. I'm 30% in the camp of things under control, but I'm 70% in the camp. That's two for one, that it's out of control. They're on QE to infinity. Why do they announce a QE3? Because nothing improved from QE, QE1, and Operation Twist. They call it stimulus, but it's not. that not grasp. They call it stimulus and it's 0%. In
the past, it was stimulus because American corporations could go out, use the cheap money, do some capital investment, buy some equipment, buy a building, open up shop, hire people. But now they don't do that because China is on the scene. So the QE is a breakdown symptom. It's a collapse symptom. And now with this live stress test that proved THAT THE WHOLE SYSTEM WOULD collapse on 20 fronts. You name it, the Indian stock market, you name it, doesn't matter. They all fell apart. So now they've got political
permission to do QE forever. That's not a sign of being into under control. And what it points out is that whatever unintended consequence came or comes from QE will be exacerbated and that is causes hedging in the market, purchase of hard assets, purchase of energy, purchase of metals, purchase of land and driving up their prices. As a result, the cost structure rises and the whole system must deal with lower profitability, cutting out businesses, trimming down Bankruptcies shut down business segments, shut down
businesses, and you get the liquidation of capital. That's what I call capital destruction that the PhD economists slept through in their PhD programs. The out of control has three very big elements. The big banks now for three years have putting have been had have been taking advantage of a very big treasury bond carry trade. They borrow 0%. They buy the long bonds 10 and 30 years and they put on futures contracts. >> More false demand. IT >> IT'S FALSE DEMAND. BUT THE IMPORTANT
THING regarding out of control is with rising rates, they're losing money at a leveraged rate. >> That's right. >> So, they're going to unwind it. And they even have a name for it in Wall Street. Convexity. meaning that little increases in interest rates force big sales of the leveraged bonds which bring about more doubled and tripled and 10 times as many sales. So guess who's going to have to lap that up on the ground? The Fed again. The second big force is that foreigners are selling Treasury bonds
OUT OF DISGUST. THEY'RE NOT PART of the decisions at the Fed. They don't get a decision on whether they go to QE3. They didn't like Huie too. They Operation Twist was different because that allowed the foreigners to say, "We don't like these these high-risk 10 and 30-year bonds. Let's swap them with your twist into the 3month, 9year, and one year, 2year so we can wait YOU YOU IDIOTS OUT AND WE can redeem without selling. They just expire and mature." All right. But the the
foreigners are also disgusted. So they're using their treasury bonds in all kinds of different manner to pay off debts in acquisition. This has got a name also not convexity like the leverage uh abandonment of the carry trade. This is called indirect exchange. I give you an example. I I think I mentioned this a couple months ago. Rosenef, which is now twice as Exxon Mobile, >> bought out British petroleum. AND WHAT DO THEY PAY these London bankers in on the payoff for the TNK BP big oil energy
firm in? They pay them in treasury bonds. When China pays Russia for their oil in Brazil, IT'S AN OIL AND GAS BUSINESS. WELL, IT WENT BUST. LOOK FOR THE CHINESE TO BUY IT UP. WHAT DO YOU THINK THEY'RE GOING TO USE TO [clears throat] pay for the acquisition? Treasury bonds. I called this a couple months ago return to sender. Uh treasury bonds return to sender because they're broken. They're toxic and the foreigners DON'T HAVE A VOICE. ALL RIGHT. THESE ARE VERY BIG THINGS. But uh I I really
believe that the interest rate swap is the zinger. It's the live wire. It's the third rail. We get big changes in the 10-year. Uh just focus on the TNX, the 10-year Treasury. It's gone from 1.7 in May to 2.7 now. >> Yeah. >> Normally 30 basis points is enough to disrupt interest rate swaps. Compare compare the treasure bonds to a giant tower like the senior tower is 110 stories. Think of a tower 200 stories and because it's so high needs buttresses to support the side at say 50
stories, 80 stories and 120. Those buttresses are the interest rate swap derivatives. They don't react well to high winds. I don't care if it's wind from the east or wind from the west. I don't care if therefore that if it's rising INTEREST RATES OR FALLING interest rates, it disrupts the interest rate swap derivative complex. And now the US banks are more insolvent than ever. And they don't have the capital to defend these interest rate swaps. They have inadequate ammunition. And
furthermore, the Swiss castle leader of the world, Basil, the self-appointed lord of the world, Basil, has instituted Basel 3 rules. They must have more capital. They must now bring to their balance sheet their derivatives. Why? Because Basel wants to collapse the system. So they can impose banker fascism when state >> when do you think the the collapse would come? When what's your what's your timeline by >> I think I think that the 57 the 52nd day of September >> okay who who knows but when it blows
it's going to blow fast. It's going to go boom. >> I will say this and this is my my you know semi-intelligent response [laughter] after my flip. take a look at the time between important events. >> Uh you've said this before is a very good point. >> And they're getting shorter. >> Yes. >> Now we're getting bigger conflicts in other response summit meeting. Why? because of Snowden and the database security easedropping. So, the United States might not attend a
world summit. Huh. The United States already is really not invited to the G20s. And you know, some people think that the G7 slapped around the G20 uh in Anchora, Turkey in the beginning of April. I'm sorry, beginning of June. This is just two months ago. Some people think that the G7 came in and say, "Hey, wait a minute. You can't do that. We're we're bigger than you. We're more powerful." No, they went to Anchora begging. They begged for a delay. And what was the agenda at that G20 in Turkey in the
first week of June? It was the nuts and bolts of gold trade settlement, the dollar alternative, the nondoll trade settlement system. it. What they compromised in June was, "All right, we'll give you idiots in the G7, you powerless finance ministers from your sovereign bankrupt countries with your infinite monetization to bail out your banking system and your infinite deficits on the fiscal side. We'll give you till September because in Moscow you ain't going to be invited. You try to
crash that like you did in Anchora, you're not going to get through the door. You're not going to get through the airport. A dollar alternative. And a lot of naive people think, "Oh, the dollar is going to rule the waves forever." Well, the US military just had a setback in Egypt. Is anybody paying attention? You know, I got some other news for you. There's some other people who are very misguided who think that the US military still rules. Well, in Easter Sunday 2010, a bunch of Arab billionaires,
couple hundred of them, made a decision in 2010 that Russia and China would be the new protector in the in the Persian Gulf. There are other things. Why do we have saber rattling about an Iran war in 2004 and 2005 and 06 07 again in '08 again in [laughter] ' 09 again in 10 again in 2011 again in 2012 but no Iran war. It's because THE US BACKED OFF. The Russians have the Sunburn and Onyx missiles which are a generation ahead and far more accurate and deadly than the US's cruise missile WHICH IS 25
YEARS OLD. the US backs down. It's not that the Russians and Chinese won't challenge. No, no, no. Just the opposite. WE GOT A LOT OF THINGS that are out of control. You know, back to Deutsche Bank for a second in these these swaps. One thing that's coming out with Deutsche Bank is that they're forex swaps, not interest rate swap. They're forex currency swaps. They treat gold like currency. Isn't that Isn't that ironic? And you know, when that news gets out about the broken
swaps with Deutsche Bank and maybe some liquidations have to happen, maybe they're going to have to liquidate some of their euro and British pound and dollar swaps in favor of gold. Maybe we're going to see $100 increases in the gold price in single days because these [snorts] these swaps have gigantic leverage. I told I mentioned once in in a in a forum that it's 20 to1 leverage and and Rob Kirby just smacked me down and said, "Jim, try 50 to one." Some of them are 100 to one. All right. So, they
got leverage holding down gold and they're breaking in Deutsche Bank's portfolio. I gosh, you know, let's get to the gold question here. I want to wrap up with a gold question because uh I've heard a lot of information, a lot of reports that are coming out at least on the internet about this massive amount of vault uh liquidation. You gold is leaving vaults, gold is leaving uh you know uh GLD, silver is leaving SLV, uh JP Morgan vaults are getting hit. I mean they're losing tremendous amounts in in
a single night. Uh LBMA has, you know, as you said, has lost a lot of gold. Comx also what when are we going to get this failure to deliver or or maybe I better put I don't want to give you a specific date is a failure to deliver is a force majour is a yeah we cannot or will not deliver physical silver or gold when is that coming well I think it's already happening the same answer and it it happened in April uh in fact it it first happened with the MF Global incident in the I think it was right
around December 1st of 2011 They didn't want to have a default because that was the next morning, a default. So, they stole MF Global accounts. They didn't make the delivery for those silver. JP Morgan took the delivery for the silver. So, we're seeing disguise defaults already. April was another gold default. ABM Andrew came out in in late March and said, "We're not going to honor gold account redemptions." Two weeks later, London has the ambush because they were facing a default. Why
do we have the Mali war announced in in Northern Africa? It's because they can't meet the demand for repatriation. They already failed to deliver the German official account, the allocated account. So, they need a war in 7 years. That's exactly what the gold output is in Mali to meet the 350 tons for Germany. BUT, YOU KNOW, MORE SPECIFICALLY to to try not to be so evasive in in the answer again, we're getting more and more events happening closer and closer in the gold world. You [clears throat]
you've got now JP Morgan being recognized as having taken the July silver output from delivery in London. You're getting JP Morgan recognized as having its own clients. its registered clients abandoning [laughter] them in in the vaults. You're now getting recognition. These are smoking guns that the comics delivery in gold is matching the withdrawal from the back door out of GLD. You're getting high correlations of over 80%. >> Dear listeners, I was able to upload a portion of this interview which lasted
approximately 2 hours and 6 minutes due to YouTube rules. You can watch it in its entirety from the link in the description. Now, some brief information about Jim Willie will be given. Dr. Jim Willie is an analyst recognized in international finance and economic circles for his distinctive viewpoints. Commonly known simply as Dr. Jim Willie, he is often said to hold a doctorate in an economic related field. Though precise details about his academic record are not widely documented. He is best known for his work shared through
his website Golden Jackass as well as various online interviews and podcasts. His main areas of focus include fluctuations in the financial markets, central bank policies, currency trends, and particularly the future of gold and silver. A defining trait of Dr. Willy's commentary is his emphasis on precious metals, gold and silver, as critical pillars of the global monetary system. He argues that modern fiat currencies, especially the US dollar, suffer from structural problems stemming from central bank policies and the complex
nature of international finance. As a result, he foresees a scenario in which the dollar weakens while gold and silver strengthen. Dr. Willie is considered by many to be an unconventional financial commentator. His analyses often diverge from mainstream economic narratives, occasionally integrating views that some label as conspiracy theories. Yet, this alternative perspective has resonated with a community of followers who value his exploration of issues they believe are overlooked by mainstream media and
big financial institutions. Two, the Golden Jackass platform and content structure. Dr. Willie disseminates most of his research and opinions via his personal website, Golden Jackass. The unusual name is meant to highlight his unfiltered approach. He describes himself as presenting blunt truths without fear of reprisal. Many of the articles and reports he publishes on this site revolve around major geopolitical and macroeconomic developments. Typical topics on golden jackass include gold and silver market
analyses. Willie is known for predicting significant spikes in gold and silver prices. He argues that continuous monetary expansion by central banks will ultimately raise the value of precious metals while eroding confidence in fiat currencies. Critiques of the global dollar system. Willie believes the US dollar status as the dominant reserve currency will eventually weaken. He often cites the efforts of countries like China and Russia in developing alternative payment systems and goldbacked arrangements. Warnings of
financial crisis. Willie frequently points to risks that he says mainstream economists ignore, such as the overextension of credit, large-scale derivatives, and the excessive liquidity central banks have provided since past economic downturns. Geopolitical events and their economic effects. His analysis goes beyond pure economics to examine how geopolitics impacts commodity prices, trade flows, and especially the dollar standing in international markets. Some content on Golden Jackass is available only to subscribers. This
paid model supports his independent research, which he claims allows him to investigate topics not widely covered by mainstream financial analysts. Three, economic analysis philosophy and methods. Dr. Dr. Jim Willy's approach to economic commentary blends macroeconomic data with monetary and geopolitical factors, resulting in what many consider a heterodox style. Key aspects of his method include historical cycle analysis. He frequently references major financial crises such as the 1929 Great
Depression and the 1971 end of the gold standard to draw parallels with current policy missteps. He views economic cycles as influenced by political and social factors, not just by raw data. Debt and credit examination. Modern finance, according to Willie, is excessively reliant on debt. He emphasizes growing global debt levels and warns that they are unsustainable. Central bank balance sheets and leverage banking practices are frequent targets of his critiques. Comparative currency analysis. Willie tracks how key
currencies, the US dollar, the euro, the Chinese yuan, and the Russian ruble compete against each other. He underscores the role of gold reserves and potential gold backing as crucial in these contests. Geopolitical context. Willie treats diplomacy, strategic alliances, and military advantages as integral to economic outcomes. He sees global finance and politics as intertwined, asserting that a policy shift in one arena reverberates throughout the other. Reliance on alternative information sources. Willie
occasionally cites unverified or non- mainstream information, claiming that official data and media may conceal the full story. Critics argue that this tendency can lead to the spread of unsubstantiated conspiracy theories. Four, main core perspective, transformation of the monetary system. One of Dr. Willy's central thesis is that the global monetary system is undergoing a profound realignment. He believes that the post Bretonwoods world order in which the US dollar has enjoyed near hegemonic status, is coming to an
end or is on the brink of doing so. As central banks keep expanding their monetary bases, he expects rising inflation to push individuals and institutions toward tangible assets like precious metals. At the heart of this view is the idea of the coming end of the dollar or the demise of the petro dollar system. According to Willie, the following trends are evidence of this shift. Countries increasing gold reserves. Emerging markets including China, Russia, and Turkey have been accumulating gold potentially to
establish alternative payment frameworks involving gold. Petroleum trade in currencies other than the dollar. Willie cites China's moves to pay for oil and yuan as a direct challenge to the dollar's monopoly in global energy markets. Alternative payment systems, new networks to replace or supplement Swift, such as China CIP, could undermine the dollar's role in global trade and lessen its power as a vehicle of economic sanctions. Willie portrays these developments as gradual with many
going under reportported. The eventual result, in his view, would be a breakdown of the dollarcentric system that would profoundly disrupt financial institutions and national economies while boosting the position of gold, silver, and other real assets. Five, the role of precious metals, gold, and silver forecasts. Dr. Willie is particularly noted for his commentary on gold and silver. He argues that these metals have served as money throughout history and assume the role of safe havens in times of crisis. While central
banks can expand the money supply almost limitlessly, physical supplies of gold and silver remain finite, favoring these metals in the long run. He often alleges that gold and silver prices are manipulated or suppressed. According to this viewpoint, major banks use large volumes of paper gold futures contracts derivatives to depress spot prices as letting gold prices rise organically would highlight fiat currency's weaknesses. Willie also applies this argument to silver, contending that silver is likewise undervalued but
manipulated. Nevertheless, Willie believes that such price manipulation cannot persist indefinitely. A surge in physical demand, he argues, will sooner or later expose discrepancies in the paper market, leading to a dramatic revaluation of both gold and silver. In such a scenario, gold could rise well into the thousands of dollars per ounce, while silver might break into tripledigit territory, an outcome that could shake the entire global financial system. Six, the US economy and Federal Reserve criticisms. Given that Dr. Dr.
Jim Willie is primarily based in the United States. He frequently critiques the Federal Reserve Fed. He contends that the Fed's policies of quantitative easing and prolonged low interest rates have masked deeper problems while magnifying systemic risks. In his view, these policies only offer temporary fixes without addressing underlying debt and leverage issues. His key points of contention include unback money creation. Willie argues that the Fed's expansionary practices are disconnected
from real economic productivity. Over time, such policies lead to higher inflation, even if official statistics do not fully capture it. Banking system vulnerabilities. According to Willie, large US banks are more fragile than they appear due to their exposure to highly leveraged derivative products. Wealth disparity. He contends that Federal Reserve policies inflate asset markets. stocks, real estate, mainly benefiting the wealthy, while rising costs of living erode the purchasing power of lower and middle inome groups.
External debt and trade imbalances. Willie points to America's escalating national debt and trade deficits, predicting they will reduce trust in US Treasury bonds over time and threaten the dollar's reserve status. Willy's criticisms draw from independent research and alternative media sources, which he sees as less prone to presenting sanitized official narratives. While his supporters view him as exposing under reportported truths, critics accuse him of selective data usage or undue alarmism. Seven,
geopolitical analyses, East West economic rivalry. Dr. Jim Willie incorporates a geopolitical lens into much of his economic commentary. He posits that the world's financial and political power is shifting from Western nations, particularly the United States and the European Union, toward eastern powers like China and Russia. This shift, in Willy's view, involves energy resources, major trade corridors, and the struggle for technological advantage. Key points he often raises include the belt and road initiative.
Willie believes China's massive infrastructure project will reshape global trade routes, reduce reliance on the dollar, and accelerate Eurasian economic growth, goldbacked currency deals. He speculates about the possibility of China and Russia jointly introducing a goldbacked digital currency or forming a trade block that circumvents the dollar. Energy wars. Willie states that which currencies are used to settle oil and natural gas contracts is vital. If Russia shifts to selling energy in rubles or yuan or in
exchange for gold, he sees this as a direct threat to the petro dollar system, diplomatic and military tensions. He asserts that international tensions and conflicts can hasten financial decoupling leading to regional economic blocks and alternative payment networks that erode the dollar's reach. Willie often cites Russian, Chinese, or other non-western media sources to bolster his arguments, which tend to frame developments as part of a broader east-west struggle. While mainstream sources may find these views too stark
or speculative, Willie supporters regard them as a clearer portrayal of how global power balances are evolving. Eight supporters and critics in the realm of economics and finance. Dr. Jim Willie is considered an alternative analyst rather than part of the mainstream. This status has earned him a committed following while also drawing criticism from established economists. Supporters belief in expose of hidden realities. They see Willy's commentary as a revelation of financial manipulations overlooked by mainstream
channels. Precious metals enthusiasts, investors bullish on gold and silver tend to resonate with Willy's stance on the eventual surge in precious metal values. Those interested in conspiracy theories. Willy's emphasis on secret deals and under the radar developments appeals to people who suspect official narratives are incomplete. Critics accusations of excessive speculation. Critics argue that many of Willy's forecasts have either failed to materialize or lack solid backing. Disconnected from market realities. Some
economists see Willy's views as too extreme, diverging significantly from conventional market indicators. Promotion of conspiracy theories. Central to their critique is that Willie relies heavily on data or rumors that mainstream economics deem unverified. Dr. Jim Willie often counters these critiques by stating that time will prove him right. His followers tend to regard short-term inaccuracies as less important than the larger long-term trends he highlights. Nine major themes in publications and interviews. Dr. Jim
Willie appears regularly on podcasts, in online interviews, and through articles in which he reasserts or refineses his views about global finance. Recurring themes include monetary policies and the prospect of inevitable collapse. Willie often labels the ongoing wave of central bank easing as unsustainable and believes it will lead to an unprecedented debt bubble, global trade and the dollar standing. He focuses on the likelihood of the dollar losing its primacy in oil transactions. In his view, geopolitical powerhouses like
China and Russia are accelerating this shift. Manipulation in metal markets. According to Willie, the only reason gold and silver are not trading at much higher levels is price suppression, which he believes will eventually fail. Investment suggestions. While stopping short of giving direct investment advice, Willie regularly emphasizes the value of holding physical gold and silver. He sometimes comments on real estate, cryptocurrencies, or other commodities, but his primary stance remains consistent. Tangible assets are
a hedge against potential financial turmoil. 10. Dr. Jim Willy's forecasts and their accuracy. Like many financial commentators, Dr. Jim Willie has made various predictions over the years. While some have aligned partially with real outcomes, others have not materialized according to his expected timelines. Critics highlight inaccurate or postponed forecasts, especially concerning the swift collapse of the dollar or hyperinflation that did not occur as predicted. Willie and his followers attribute such delays to
factors like ongoing market manipulation or new geopolitical agreements that slow down the anticipated shifts. They also stress that his analyses revolve more around long-term structural issues than short-term market timing and that certain economic events might simply be unfolding later than initially expected. At the same time, supporters note that Willie accurately pointed out the continued expansion of central bank balance sheets and the trend of countries accumulating gold reserves. Whether these represent unique insights
or broader trends also recognized by mainstream analysts is open to debate. 11. Conspiracy theories and critiques of mainstream economics. Dr. Jim Willie sometimes embraces viewpoints described as conspiracy theories, such as allegations of covert arrangements among global banking elites or claims that certain financial institutions deliberately engineer crisis. These comments often lack direct support in official reports or academic literature, undermining their acceptance by mainstream experts. Nevertheless,
Willy's core audience contends that the very absence of this information in major news outlets is evidence of systematic cover-ups. This tension results in a polarized reception. While some commend him for tackling subjects that major economists avoid, others dismiss his arguments as relying on rumor or anecdotal evidence. 12. Building an audience and media strategy. Dr. Jim Willy's influence stems in large part from digital media. Rather than appearing frequently on television networks or in major newspapers, he has
cultivated a following through. His website Golden Jackass. The subscription-based model allows him to finance his research and post in-depth analyses without relying on traditional editorial norms. Podcasts and interviews. Alternative finance channels invite him to discuss his views, giving him a platform free from mainstream editorial constraints. Social media. Willie uses social media platforms to share shorter commentaries and link to his more extensive articles or interviews. This approach targets a
niche yet dedicated audience, particularly those skeptical of mainstream financial narratives. Willy's unconventional or controversial theories find an environment of fewer restrictions online, aligning with audiences seeking alternative takes on global economics. 13. Dr. Jim Willy's place in the financial world in mainstream banking circles or academia. Dr. Jim Willie is not widely cited. Instead, he operates as an independent commentator, an outsider who both intrigues and polarizes observers.
Critics consider his warnings overly dire and his reliance on unofficial data problematic, but the financial turmoil of previous crises has also made many investors more open to unconventional perspectives. Those who value his work stress how events like the 2008 financial crisis validated skepticism toward institutional analyses. Willy's arguments about the unsustainability of constant monetary easing and the precarious nature of the global debt burden echo broader concerns, though he often frames them more bluntly. Overall,
Dr. Jim Willie sits at the intersection of alternative finance commentary and mainstream critique. While he has a loyal core following, he is also subject to ongoing scrutiny by economists and analysts who question his methods and conclusions. 14. Conclusion and assessment. Dr. Jim Willie stands out in alternative finance circles through his strong critiques of central banks, fervent support for gold and silver, and emphasis on significant geopolitical realignments. His central premise is that the current global financial order,
especially the dollar-based system, is unsustainable. According to Willie, everinccreasing debt and persistent market manipulation will eventually trigger a major monetary crisis. one in which holders of real assets, particularly precious metals, will thrive. Yet, questions remain as to whether his most dramatic predictions will unfold precisely as he envisions and on what timeline. His track record has been mixed, and skepticism about certain forecasts lingers. Supporters respond by emphasizing that Willy's
perspective is best understood as a warning about underlying fragility. fragilityities that may require more time to materialize or that might manifest in ways not easily predicted. Regardless of these debates, Dr. Jim Willie has established a definite niche. His analyses, whether embraced or doubted, compel audiences to consider alternative possibilities and deeper layers of the global financial system. For that reason, those who engage with Willy's writings often do so with a blend of caution and curiosity,
recognizing that while his approach can veer into unconventional territory, it may also provide a valuable counterpoint to mainstream narratives. [music] >> Don't forget to like our video and subscribe for our channel. >> [music]
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