welcome to bald guy money i'm bald guy and welcome to my new studio this is an impromptu so unplanned but very important video about the latest inflation numbers that have just come out registering in at 9.1 percent in the usa and in this video i will help you understand what those numbers mean and why it hurts a lot more than what the government wants to actually admit because in the american example and this really applies to everybody even those outside of the united states those numbers are cooked and i have what i


think is definitive proof that i want to show you in this video on top of that once we finish talking about inflation i will be answering some questions that you've submitted both on my instagram and in the comments section of my videos so please watch to the very end because there's a lot of good stuff there too not to waste any more time though just remember that this is not financial advice and please hit the like button right now if you'd like to support my channel and the growth of my channel


you've all been doing a really great job a like right now would really help this video get up there and get more exposure so as i mentioned inflation numbers are out in the us and we have hit 9.1 for the month of june but what does that mean exactly and how is this measured well economists have an established basket of goods kind of like the one you see here but within that basket it's not just food that you're buying you also have things like housing energy education electronics and the


list goes on and every month economists research how much people in a given country spend on this basket of goods in this case americans with the 9.1 percent but the method is basically the same everywhere in your country wherever you're watching from will have its own inflation number so for june which is the month we just got data for uh in the united states they will compare the cost of that basket of goods from june this year with the cost of a basket of goods from june last year so 2021


so for example if your basket of goods cost 100 in june 2021 and today that basket costs 109.10 you can use the following formula so the the new cost 109. 10 cents minus the old cost 100 so that gives you nine dollars and 10 cents and then you divide that number by the old cost by 100 to calculate inflation so in this example i've given it's 9.1 and that formula is actually very useful for calculating growth in sales or return on investment so if you're not familiar with this formula please take


note of it now but back to the topic at hand because i know many of you are really feeling the effects of this inflation because the data shows that you must be feeling it take a look at this with official inflation at 9.1 percent and the average hourly wage only rising by 6.1 percent over the same period of time most people around you possibly including yourself are finding themselves in a hole every month and i'm sure that hole feels a lot bigger than the numbers are showing and let me know in the comments if you agree


with that statement and the reason is because of three things i want to bring to your attention that raise major questions about the cpi the consumer price index which calculates inflation and how it is calculated and here they are so number one is the period methodology issue number two is the cost of housing paradox and number three is moving targets and i will cover them in order starting with the period methodology issue which is basically this here's a two year calendar showing the period that has been used to measure the


9.1 inflation that we've been told about just today and those months that have been used to calculate that 9.1 percent are highlighted in red and that is from june 2021 to june 2022 and what the criticism says is that sure that's how much prices have gone up over the last year in theory i'll have more to say on that shortly though but for many people who don't receive salary increases every year especially for people who are on fixed incomes throwing away those earlier months marked in gray


only suits the government's narrative that inflation is not as high as what we observe it to be in reality now what the perfect period for measuring inflation is i can't say for certain but this year-over-year rolling inflation calculation in an environment where inflation is white hot absolutely has to go but that's not the worst part of it because if you dig into the numbers we find more issues there not just in the timeline that they're using now consider this and this applies


literally to every country in the world where interest rates are going up and and that's most countries in the world right now the average american spends 35 percent of what they spend in a month on housing it is the single largest expense for every american and likely every canadian every australian every european and the list goes on now with mortgage rates rising on the back of higher interest rates put in by central banks in different countries the biggest single expense for people their


housing is going up in fact believe it or not according to the 2021 census conducted in the united states 65 of americans currently have a mortgage on the home they're living in and the average mortgage payment has increased roughly 42 since 2021 so that means if americans spend 35 percent of what they spend in a month on housing and the increase in cost of what they're paying for housing or for their mortgage in this example is a 42 increase then if we multiply 35 times 42 you can see that just from your housing


expenses that you spend money on every month you have a 14.7 increase in your expenses in your monthly expenses which alone is higher than the 9.1 inflation that we're getting officially from the government and this is what i call the cost of housing paradox and i really hope that all of you watching right now are beginning to understand exactly why i think the 9.1 inflation number that we've just seen today coming out of the united states is a lie and no matter where you're watching this video you have to look at


the official inflation numbers critically because most likely your country is feeding you the exact same lies that the united states government is feeding people through via their official statistics and unofficial inflation numbers and now to the last thing on the list and i mentioned this in my very first video which was published one year and one week ago today so i am celebrating the one year anniversary of bald guy money and to all the well-wishers out there you are very much welcome to wish me well in the


comments section to pump up the performance of this video a little bit more but what i talked about one year ago was this the cpi is calculated based on moving targets for example if beef becomes too expensive they'll swap it out for chicken or for pork which is a cheaper type of meat and the reason they do that is because the economists and status statisticians assume that you know they understand consumer behavior and that naturally as something becomes more expensive you will swap it out for a cheaper cheaper


alternative now about that that is as we all know based on our personal lives it's not true especially in most cases i mean if you like to have hamburger or steak you're not going to be able to substitute that with a chicken breast or with a pork chop not in many circumstances and while you are paying more for the same things and you are feeling the heat of inflation which is definitely more than 9.1 percent over the last 13 months so june to june that's 13 months in total the government


statisticians out there are cooking the numbers to make it look like everything is okay or at least that things are not as bad as they seem and that's all i have to say on that topic of inflation so i hope you enjoyed that please let me know in the comments if you think i'm right if you think i'm wrong i want to know what you think about the official inflation numbers and what you think about my criticisms of the cpi now moving on to viewer questions and if you like this format as well where i cover a topic and then move


on to your questions let me know in the comments please i can make this a more regular common format that we do here on the channel so i am going to read some of the questions now and just answer them freestyle so the first question i received is from a viewer named chris and he asks i am trying to decide what to put my money towards silver or gold the silver to gold ratio is very appealing and shows silver is a good buy versus gold however the dollar to gold ratio is desirable as well my time horizon is over three years what


do you think so thank you very much chris for your question and although i can't give you advice i can tell you what i am doing personally in my own life and you can take that for what it's worth so over the next three years i do think silver has a bigger upside price versus gold and i've covered that in a few videos you can go back and watch that so basically if you're asking my opinion on what i think has the the bigger upside price wise and where i would put my money to get more returns over the next


three years my answer is definitively silver that said i have made a lot of silver purchases earlier in the year when we broke the 21 dollar mark and although i still plan on making some more purchases closer to the end of the year and we are talking about silver bars which i am buying right now and i am looking out for the price of about 17 per ounce before i start buying more silver i do see gold as being very attractive right now below the 1 750 mark so that said my next purchase is going to be


gold because i don't think that we're going to be for too long under that 1750 mark especially as the us dollar starts to lose a little bit of relative strength versus other foreign currencies and i think you'll see the dollar price of gold come up as a result likely by the end of the year coming back to around the two thousand dollar mark okay so i hope you like my answer now to the next question and this one comes from m.o silver or moe silver and what moe silver asks is i would like your take on


the jp morgan citibank gold derivatives story that came out this week what does it truly mean i think it means paper trading but will this news affect the physical market at all so thanks mo silver for your question and at first i didn't exactly understand what you were talking about but i did see a reply to your question in the comment section under the video where you commented and i understand now that what you're talking about is spoofing and there is a big case right now going on against some prominent jp morgan


precious metals traders about spoofing so just as a reminder to all of my viewers about what spoofing is and why this is important let's take a look spoofing is the act of creating fake buying or selling orders in large amounts to create the illusion that the price of something is going to go up or down spoofing has been illegal since 2010 and it is done with the intent of making your actual trades that you place pay off by creating these illusions that things are going to go either up or down


to get more people to follow you into the trade so what i want to say on this topic is that although some people and some entities so even some banks are being brought to justice over their practices of spoofing on the precious metals markets i'm not very optimistic that this is going to bring any immediate results to the fact that there is continued manipulation happening in the precious metal market and and this is the reason why because to be honest it's a very slow process first of all in in


prosecuting these people and the second second of all it's very difficult to prove and i actually covered that in my silver manipulation video of exactly why it is so hard to prove that these entities are participating in spoofing of precious metals that said back in 2019 jp morgan did pay a 920 million dollar fine for some of their spoofing practices now i have to assume that if they paid a 920 million dollar fine and the practices have continued you have to imagine that the profits that they're making as a result of the


spoofing much are much much larger than any potential fines they may have to pay therefore as i said i don't think manipulation in the precious metals market is going to end anytime soon that said i do think this is a step in the right direction so thanks again for your question moving on to the next one and this one comes from david he says more inflation and interest rate hikes are expected in europe and the u.s how will it impact crypto and real estate so i really really like this question


thank you very much david for asking and i will start from the crypto angle so crypto it has been under a lot of stress and in a lot of pain over the last 70 days that said my conviction with respect to where the space is going 5 10 15 years from now is just as strong as it was one year ago when i started this channel because when you have something that's new just like in the days of the the early days of the internet when you had the dot-com boom you are going to have a lot of imposters impersonators and bad actors


in the environment that are trying to make a quick buck and right now it seems that we're in a in a place in time right now where a lot of these things are starting to die off and i think tara luna which actually caused the first major uh downturn in the crypto market it was the first casualty of that and now we're starting to see that uh break out into some of the into some of the exchanges so you've had celsius which basically it's it's moving towards insolvency insolvency you've had


voyager which has publicly filed for bankruptcy so you're starting to see this kind of cleaning of the crypto environment now you asked about interest rate hikes and how this is going to infect uh and inflation sorry and how this is going to affect crypto moving forward well i think in the short term we can expect a little bit more pain probably and most likely until still the end of the year before we start to come out of it and things start to stabilize and that's where i think there that said


i think inflation and these higher levels of inflation are with us to stay and as a result of that the fact that there are only and only ever will be 21 million bitcoins in existence i think that that is a major benefit for that asset class and that is why again people are calling it digital gold so i am very optimistic if you have like our earlier question uh the person who asked the question you know a three to five year time horizon on your investment i think holding bitcoin is absolutely great that's what


i'm doing i'm not giving advice to you but again that is that is what i'm doing personally and if you are watching this video and you don't like bitcoin please save me the negative comments on bitcoin you can give me your reasons maybe why you don't like it but but that is my personal opinion and i stick by it now on the topic of real estate i think this one is actually a little more straightforward the fact of the matter is the interest rate hikes are going to lead to a decreased demand in


real estate and we're already seeing that now prices are starting to come down and it looks like you know we've already reached top on real estate prices probably back in january or february so i do expect real estate to pull back on average depending on where you live i would say let's say in you know more first in the first world we're talking about a 10 pullback in the price of real estate as a whole that said if you're living in a hot market a place like austin texas if you're living in a european capital city


like paris warsaw uh amsterdam if you're living in in australia and in one of the big major cities i think that you can expect the price of real estate to pull back even more so and we're talking about 25 even to as much as 30 percent and i'll tell you exactly why i have a cousin who works in real estate in canada and the canadian market was super hot hotter than in fact any other g7 real estate market so he told me this was about two weeks ago he sent me a message and he said during the the peak you know so for the


last two years he had been selling six to eight homes every month you can imagine how much money he was probably making but he told me when he wrote to me he said in the last six weeks i haven't sold a thing and prices are already starting to come down significantly he added that a lot of people who were buying houses at the top are already under water on their mortgages which means that the value of their house is actually less than what the amount of money they actually borrowed to buy it uh was so that's what


it means to be underwater so i do expect a correction in the housing market do i expect something as severe as what we experienced in 2007 2008 2009 no i do not that said i think you'll find people in bigger cities so the hotter markets will be affected more than people who are in more rural areas and that's my take thank you again for joining me for this video i do hope you enjoyed it if so don't forget to hit the like button right now with that said take care of yourselves take care of the people


around you everybody and i do hope to see you in the next video bye