hey everyone welcome to my channel and welcome back to my subscribers this is where we talk about money saving and how to secure yourself in an insecure world this is bald guy money i'm bald guy let's talk money so today we're going to talk about bitcoin precisely the main reason why i am buying bitcoin right now and there will be some price predictions in this video so be sure please to watch to the very end to get the most out of it before we get into it just a reminder this is not financial advice this is an informational video the better informed you are the better decisions you can make about your personal finances and none of this is political i use facts and i apply logic and use math to make sense of what's happening around me nothing more nothing less okay so bitcoin i am buying it i won't let it pass me by anymore and there are many reasons why but the main reason why i am buying it right now is that there are huge amounts of money about to come into bitcoin that will change it forever not only will the price surge to new all-time highs over the next 18 months in my opinion but the level of volatility is going to go down now if you've watched my earlier video on how i invest to beat inflation you will have noticed that i mentioned a few investors by name investors that i keep an eye on now i'm not talking about people on the fringes quack investors i mean billionaire hedge fund managers who manage massive amounts of their own and other people's money two such examples are paul tudor jones and ray dalio between them they manage around 100 billion dollars in assets and paul tudor jones recently went on record in a cnbc interview and said this i like bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier everybody asks me what should i do with my bitcoin the only thing i know for certain i want five percent in gold five percent in bitcoin and here's ray dalio who's bridgewater associates is the largest hedge fund in the world and he recently offered up these nuggets to coindesk during their consensus 2021 conference i have some bitcoin i'd rather have bitcoin than a bond two different takes on bitcoin seems to me that paul tudor jones sees it as an engine for growth and a major engine for return on investment moving into the future whereas ray dalio sees it as more of a way to protect yourself from inflation and replace bonds which are not giving any returns right now all that said like one of my favorite youtubers james from investor answers says all roads lead to bitcoin and i think these examples adequately prove that that no matter what your take is whether you're looking for an engine for growth or just a hedge on on inflation or something to replace bonds um bitcoin is that alternative and all roads lead to bitcoin by the way i'm going to link up a link to james's channel below so check him out if you want to i highly recommend him he's really good at what he does okay so this is really really important to pay attention to when you have major hedge fund managers talking about bitcoin it means you have to start crunching the numbers and ask what percentage of the approximately 3.2 trillion dollars managed by hedge funds will land in bitcoin and what impact that will have on its price stay with me my prediction is coming up the second leg of my huge amounts of money coming into bitcoin comes from what are called etfs or exchange traded funds simply put an etf is much like a traditional mutual fund you purchase shares of the etf and in turn the etf takes your money and they purchase a basket of different stocks commodities and bonds depending on how much risk you signed up for or what part of the market you signed up to focus on here it is illustrated in an example you can see i've made an example of what an s p 500 etf might look like maybe you've had some tesla apple microsoft johnson and johnson's stock all mixed up in there and commodities etf or maybe you have a little bit of gold silver oil there are some etfs that will buy both of these things so you'll have etfs that will buy you a little bit of these s p 500 stocks and some commodities as well and as you can imagine there is a lot of money in these etfs in fact when you compare to the 3.2 trillion dollars managed by hedge funds etfs are more than twice that size at a massive 7.7 trillion dollars total invested in etfs around the world as it stands today and together they combine to become a 10.9 trillion dollar wrecking ball with the potential to send a stock or cryptocurrency to the moon in one trading day now at this point in the video you may be asking yourself so if all if there's all this money that's keen on getting into bitcoin why haven't the people managing these funds bought bitcoin yet and that's a great question so as it stands today there are hedge funds and etfs that actively invest in bitcoin for example in canada there are a few etfs with almost uh 700 million dollars in bitcoin holdings as it stands today additionally some hedge funds have also started to foray into bitcoin but only at a slow pace and there are reasons for that and it boils down to regulation specifically in the usa now why regulation in the usa is so important is easy to explain pull up the chart okay here it is as you can see on this chart more than half of the total investment value on earth today is in the united states of america we're talking almost 56 of all investments in equities are held in the united states of america and there are very specific rules when it comes to investing there which are kind of have an oversight committee which is called the sec or securities and exchange commission a key element of that regulation is that they have to approve etfs including ones that want to invest in bitcoin and until those approvals and clarity on how bitcoin regulation will look like a lot of that big money is going to continue to sit on the sidelines or get some moderate exposure to bitcoin through proxies companies that hold bitcoin in their treasuries instead of cash companies like microstrategy but there may be a light at the end of the long bitcoin etf tunnel just check out this story from cnbc that they published on july 2nd the sec should have approved a bitcoin etf a long time ago regulator pearce says the article continues to quote the sec commissioner as saying i thought that if we had applied our standards as we have applied them to other products we would already have approved one or more of them with each passing day the rationale that we have used in the past for not approving seems to grow weaker so sec commissioners are getting softer on this topic and it's just a matter of when at this point as opposed to if they'll approve a bitcoin etf now my detailed prediction on how hedge funds and etfs will impact the price of bitcoin as it stands today on july 10th one bitcoin costs 33 900 how that number is calculated is by bitcoin's algorithm that determines the price based on changes in supply and demand as more coins are bought up the supply of the total 21 million coins goes down and the price subsequently shoots up the reverse is also true so once we know the price of a bitcoin and check exactly how many bitcoins are in circulation it's 18.75 million as of right now we are then able to to determine what the market cap of bitcoin is meaning what is the total value of all the bitcoins that currently exist and here's an illustration of that okay so as you can see price of bitcoin today 33 900 18.75 million bitcoins giving us a market cap of about billion dollars and why i bring this up is simple because based on observed purchases of bitcoin which everyone can see on the blockchain we can make estimations from this point in time of how certain inflows of money impact the total market cap please note these are predictions on how i believe institutional investing from etfs and hedge funds will impact the price of bitcoin i will do a more detailed video soon on how the market adoption rate will impact the price of bitcoin so stay tuned for that so the story of exactly how purchases impact the price vary depending on who you ask for the sake of my calculations i will be showing you both a conservative and aggressive number the first assumes that the price or the market cap of bitcoin will increase at a factor of 10 versus the amount that was invested the second assumes that the market cap of bitcoin will increase by a factor of 20 of what was invested i personally prefer to focus on the conservative number myself as i like to under promise and over deliver but i am showing both here okay so of the total money with hedge funds and etfs i estimate that right now about 0.11 is held in bitcoin here's how my estimation breaks down you can see that we have approximately 8 billion dollars or 0.3 percent of hedge fund money in bitcoin and etfs at 0.05 percent or 3.9 billion dollars due to tighter restrictions in the usa coming from sec regulations full disclosure i don't include great grayscale's bitcoin trust in my numbers because it is not by definition a hedge fund or an etf so please keep that in mind when scrutinizing my numbers and now let's take a look at what would happen to the price of bitcoin if these funds upped their investment to one percent of their total holdings today okay so as you can see the impact of or actually let's start with what the additional investment would be when we're talking about hedge fund money if they upped it to one percent of the total money that's held in hedge funds today you're looking at about a 24 billion dollar incremental investment how i got that was one percent of all hedge fund money would be about 32 billion dollars they already have eight billion dollars in according to my estimation so 32 billion minus 8 billion gives us 24 billion dollars and at a factor of 10 increasing the market cap that would increase the market cap by 240 billion dollars which would impact the current bitcoin price positively by 12 800 per bitcoin i hope everybody followed me there let's do it again the same thing with etf money we increase etf investments to one percent of total money in etfs which brings the total amount of investments from the 7.7 trillion dollars that are held in etfs to 77 billion dollars which is an additional investment of 73.2 billion dollars because remember they had a little bit already in there the impact to bitcoin's market cap would then be a positive impact of 731.5 billion dollars increasing bitcoins price by an additional 39 000 when we add these numbers together we are talking about an incremental addition to bitcoin's price of about 51 813 dollars per bitcoin okay so when we add that to what the current price of bitcoin is that gives us a conservative estimate of 85 hundred thirteen dollars per bitcoin and as you can see there's a number right under it that shows what it would be if we use the formula that what they invest increases the market cap by a factor of 20x which would give us a price of a hundred and thirty seven thousand five hundred twenty seven dollars per bitcoin okay so i think the one percent case is very probable to happen within the next 18 months and i'm expecting a major boost to bitcoin and for people holding it within that period of time now the 2.5 scenario is another very realistic scenario that i think will need about three to five years to play out and it looks just like this you have an additional investment coming from hedge funds at the level of 72 billion dollars and that is for etfs almost 189 billion dollars in total that will increase bitcoin's market cap together by 2 trillion 607 billion dollars increasing bitcoin's total uh price versus um what we are at today by one hundred thirty nine thousand thirteen dollars giving us a new total bitcoin price of 172 thousand nine hundred thirteen dollars in the conservative scenario now in the more aggressive scenario we're looking at 311 hundred twenty seven dollars per bitcoin not bad now the last scenario uh we need to take a look at is the we need five percent in bitcoin scenario based on what paul tudor jones said recently on on cnbc this scenario is possible but it is a more long-term scenario we're talking about 10 years from now once everyone is comfortable with the idea of holding and storing bitcoin and the adoption rate closes in on 80 in the developed countries and around 40 worldwide here are those numbers we're talking about a total market cap impact to bitcoin of 5 trillion 332 billion dollars increasing the bitcoin price from today by at least 284 three hundred forty seven dollars meaning that in the conservative scenario bitcoin will one bitcoin will cost three hundred eighteen thousand two hundred forty seven dollars in the more aggressive scenario you're going to be looking at a bitcoin that costs 602 593 dollars as you can see just etfs and hedge funds by themselves can make major changes to the price of bitcoin over the next two to ten years and like i said earlier it's just a matter of when at this point so in conclusion big time investment fund money is coming to bitcoin alone this money can increase the price of bitcoin to above eighty thousand dollars in the near term and get it above six hundred thousand dollars in my more aggressive scenario in the longer term and this is going to happen please remember from my earlier video on inflation the money supply here it is here's the money supply is growing at an astronomical rate right now people are looking for a place to park some of their cash as a way to protect it from inflation and you can be sure that bitcoin is one of those places as i mentioned a lot of these major funds and investors are just waiting for the sec to give them the green light and as i illustrated they are getting closer and closer to doing this as each day passes that is why i am buying bitcoin right now and why i am confident that big returns are coming my way if you like this video please please please drop me a like it helps get my videos recommended so more people can see this information and prepare better for coming changes before i sign off i wish you all happiness i wish you all success see you in the next one