hey everyone welcome to my channel welcome back to my subscribers this is where we talk about investing specifically about investing in assets uh this is bald guy money i'm bald guy let's talk money so today i want to talk about silver and why i think silver is massively undervalued why it's undervalued and what price targets i'm looking for in the next 12 to 12 months to five years as always please just remember none of this is financial advice you have to make your own investment decisions and if you like what you see please hit the like button and subscribe to my channel so you don't miss any of my content so i am saying to you right now that from where i'm looking silver is massively undervalued how much do you ask it could be as much as 50 as it stands right now you want proof well here it is i'm coming in hard in today's video uh as of today july 20th 2021 the spot price of silver last i checked was 25 dollars and 22 cents what a spot price you ask this is the definition of spot price it is the current price that silver can be bought or sold for for immediate delivery anywhere in the world so if the spot price of silver today is 25 dollars and 22 cents in theory i should be able to buy silver for delivery anywhere in the world for that price plus a small provision for the dealer which for silver is usually around five to fifteen percent meaning i should be able to buy silver for about twenty six dollars and forty eight cents per ounce all the way up to about twenty nine dollars so let's pull up the first graphic here is the official spot price of silver in the upper left-hand corner i've put it and i have taken some screenshots from major boolean dealer websites benchmarking versus common government issued silver boolean coins as you can see the prices are much much higher than we would expect them to be ranging from the lowest i could find at 35 dollars and 53 cents per one ounce coin at money metals all the way up to 40 dollars and 43 cents for a silver eagle from gold avenue in fact i checked a total of 16 major dealer websites and found that the average price of a government issued silver bullion coin was 38 2 cents a full 51 percent above the spot price so if you're wondering where i got that 50 number there it is now those of you who are more familiar with the silver market may be saying but bullion coins like eagles and maple leafs always command a higher premium and that's true what you should do is maybe some of you are saying is benchmark versus bars specifically one kilogram bars they are always very close to spot price and that's true five years ago i would never have paid more than five percent over spot for a one kilogram bar of of silver so i repeated the same methodology that i used for silver coins and i repeated it for one kilogram silver bars and here are the results as you can see in this graphic the one kilogram bars are also quite far from spot even the second position which was the absolute cheapest i could find at 29.46 per troy ounce is a whopping 17 above spot and this is for bars from private unknown to me mints which are you should be usually cheaper as they are a bit harder to sell and when compared to the average the spot price for a one kilogram bar of silver is a whopping 24 above the spot price on average and that leads me to my first price calculation what i think the actual spot price of silver is and here you can see it the historic price above spot is shown on the left side so 5 on bars and 15 on coins the actual price average that i was able to find online is then shown and then i am showing in the third column what the actual price without that provision so the 5 or 15 spot price um provision would be which leads me to say that the actual spot price of silver is 29.86 based on the price that bars are going for today as they are historically closer to the spot price of silver so i'm kind of sandbagging a little bit and i'll tell you more on why i'm not basing the the price on the one ounce bouillon coin so much in a bit so the way i see it right now is silver is currently undervalued by about 16 but that's only as of today there is a lot more price action coming on silver so keep watching we're going to get to my 12 month and 5 year predictions very soon first i just want to explain why things are the way they are at least from my point of view so why do i think the price of silver is so low and how did i come to that conclusion well the jpmorgan bank has long been a participant in the precious metals market and if you go back to just last year they settled a lawsuit for 920 million dollars that accused them of spoofing the silver market an accusation that jp morgan denies let's be clear on that so what is spoofing you ask that's simple spoofing is the act of creating fake buying or selling orders in large amounts to create the illusion that the price of something is going to go up or go down in the case of what jp morgan was accused of doing and still accused of participating in by many people is that they created and are still creating fake offers to sell silver which create the illusion of a decrease in demand thus reducing the price of silver here's an illustration of that for many of you who took economics 100 in university that you may be familiar with this is where jpmorgan was trying to push the um the demand in the in the demand curve in order to artificially keep the price of silver low now i just want to be clear on this jp morgan denies doing this and whether they are guilty or not it doesn't change the fact that there are new regulations being introduced called basel iii as they were devised in basel switzerland which i believe confirm my thoughts on how the price of silver has been kept low and will make it difficult if not impossible for banks to artificially keep the price of silver low in the future so now that we know new laws are coming to prevent banks from keeping the price of silver artificially low where do i think the price of silver will go in the next 12 months and five years what i am about to show you represents many hours of painstaking research and calculations and the numbers i am about to show you unequivocally prove we are primed for a massive increase in the demand of silver over the next five years for the following reasons new basel iii banking requirements will force banks to hold more physical silver retail investors are holding more silver as a hedge against inflation thirdly increasing needs of industrial firms that need silver in their production processes keeping all of this in mind this is the model i have built to illustrate the demand of silver in millions of ounces for 2022 and all the way out to 2026 upon which i built my pricing predictions as you can see on the far left you have the demand for silver broken down by category so you have the industrial use of silver photographic use of silver silver used for jewelry silver used in silverware and silver used for investment purposes you have in the second column the 2012 demand in millions of ounces which total 1 billion 40 million ounces of demand and you have the 2021 demand right next to it which is this is the projected demand for 2021 taken from metal focused data from the silver institute and you can see the total demand is at 1 billion 138 million ounces an increase of nine percent in 2021 versus 2012. and what's curious to know is that the largest increase is in the industrial demand of silver which is increasing 24 and in things like photography which have declined by 45 you're going to see longer term a leveling off of this decrease in demand and with respect to investment which has actually decreased in demand from 2012 to 2021 the implications of the new basel iii regulations which i mentioned earlier will in fact and are expected to cause an increase in demand for silver for investment purposes as the banks will have to hold more to cover paper silver that they're selling to investors so what will this do to demand in 2022 so using that data it is projected that by the end of 2022 industrial demand of silver will increase by another 15 versus 2021 all the way up to 721 million ounces of silver and investment silver demand should increase by 24 all the way up to 313 million ounces now looking five years out this in fact is going to continue you see that versus 2021 the 2026 demand is going to increase for industrial use of silver by 44 while demand in the other areas like photography jewelry and silverware flattens out a bit you will see continued increases in demand for investment again driven by the basel iii regulations so the increased demand on silver from where i'm sitting and based on the calculations that i've done will give us the following prices you can see the spot price today 25 dollars 22 cents the price of silver by the end of 2022 which is projected to be at 32.48 cents per ounce and by the end of 2026 at 47. two cents per ounce now that's just in today's terms meaning the impact that increased demand will have on the price if there was absolutely no inflation now if you saw my video on inflation let's bring up the graphic you'll know that the supply of money is increasing at an almost parabolic rate from 1.1 trillion dollars back in 2000 let's call it all the way up to 19.2 trillion dollars today and this is increasing more and more as time goes on i really urge you to go and watch that video on inflation and according to my inflation calculations what you can buy with one dollar today you will need one dollar 30 cents to buy in 2026 so let's take a look at what the price of silver will be in reality when we adjust these numbers that i showed you earlier to inflation and here they are so the spot price today is 25 dollars and 22 cents and what i said earlier is that i expect based on the increased demand in silver the price to go up to 32 dollars and 48 cents by the end of next year however if we adjust for inflation that price should end up in nominal terms to actually be 34.49 which is an increase of 37 versus the spot price today and if we fast forward to 2026 we see an actual inflation adjusted price of 61.13 which is 142 increase versus the price today i'm sure many of you will be disappointed that i didn't say silver will be worth 100 an ounce and some of you might even think that i'm overshooting here big time on the price of silver but after painstaking analysis of silver supply and demand inflation rates and historic behavior of silver to recognize trends and correlations i can look at you all today and say i stand by these numbers and i will invest based on those numbers so just to give you a quick summary i believe the real spot price of silver today should be 29.86 i also believe that bouillon coins like silver eagles are currently commanding an unreasonable price above spot due to supply constraints of coins not in the supply of actual silver it's the coins that are not being minted as quickly due to the c19 virus that's uh that's going around and issues with the production of coins and that's why they're commanding today a higher premium versus bars and that is why i will be focusing most of my purchases moving forward on larger weight bars until the supply issue on boolean coins is solved i also shared with you some models on the projected increase in demand of silver moving forward and according to those models we will likely have a tougher supply issue on silver over the next five years which will undoubtedly carry the price higher and just as a final reminder these are my price predictions on where silver is going over the next five years because of increased demand and due to basel iii regulations which will force banks to back up more of the paper silver they sell with actual physical silver thus ending many years of possible price manipulation which the banks deny so if the banks are watching out there don't sue me please if you like this video please please please drop me a like this was a huge project for me so if you could show some love i would really appreciate it also please subscribe to my channel and check out my other videos if you're new to the channel it all helps me keep me here doing what it is i'm doing and if you're interested in learning more about investing in silver i have linked up a guy called florida stacker in the description along with all of my other links to help you navigate and verify my work check him out though he does really great videos to guide new buyers in the world of silver and with that i wish you all success i wish you happiness i wish you health and i really do hope to see you in the next one take care everyone