and at the end of this video I need to show you a short video that my girlfriend Jane took on the Mean Streets of Detroit that's going to be at the end of this video it's like this you are being told that the economy is so strong they point to things like the low unemployment rate or the high stock market neither of which actually feeds into the economy but there are a few bright spots we recently saw the strongest gain and business activity since April 2022 granted okay okay there are a few


good spots but I've been known to be a little bit like a wet blanket so this is from the administrative office of the US courts these are bankruptcies you'll see that there's seven straight increases in a perfect Trend going higher it's slow measured manageable maintainable it's the same with stocks I always tell you that if you want to see a stock going higher you want it to go up slowly in a measured and consistent way rather than a huge jump higher because that's most like to


come back down speaking of the stock market here's a chart of it and I'm going to tell you what I said before the Doom bubble I said this Market cannot continue on the same Trend it's a possibility I'm not saying the stock market is going to crash because it's been going up so strongly I'm saying that this trend it's on is going to change in any number of ways but it's not going to be in the same trajectory and you'll notice the move from mid November I always tell you that it's


about the speed of the move more than the destination things are moving much too fast right now with inflation and all these meme stocks here's a chart of GameStop just to show you what's going on there here's a chart of djt media showing you Donald Trump's meme stock how it's doing but what's driving all of this activity that's going on all this investment strength it can't be the low interest rates because they're not low at all so it's definitely not that I


don't know let's take a look at this chart this is M2 money supply here's all the money they created to pay our deficit in our current account to pay our overages for the things we spend beyond what we can afford but anyway here's a chart from the Bureau of Labor Statistics this is unemployment and I'm telling you that unemployment will start going up pretty markedly as we approach and enter the recession but here is a chart of credit card delinquencies this is from the Board of Governors of the


Federal Reserve System just looking at all these incremental numbers and data points I just feel like we are in the absolute middle of what's feeling like an incredible and historically relevant blowoff top this is from the Bureau of economic analysis this is American GDP gross domestic product and you'll see that it's positive so that's a good sign at least it's positive but it has been falling in the last three reads and remember quarter 1 was 1.3% and and as I told you then that GDP got a boost both


from government hiring and military spending and even the increases in GDP from precious metals mining without those additional influences we might have been back in recession territory just like we were in quarter 1 and quarter 2 of 2022 this is from the US Department of Labor it's a 4-we average for jobless claims and you'll notice that seven of the last eight reads were all Rising expect this trend in jobless claims to continue from the Bureau of Labor Statistics this is the jolts the job


openings and it's sliding pretty quickly in the last three reads the job openings are clamming up but here's one you always have to watch this is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics it's the youth unemployment rate and at 99.2% right now is the highest it's being this year you've heard the expression that Idol hands on the devil's workshop that's what they're talking about with youth unemployment whenever youth unemployment gets above 20% there's a massive spike in violent crime vandalism


burglaries all sorts of things you do not want the youth to not have something to be doing or a way to earn a living it gets pretty bad pretty quickly history has shown us this in many countries all over the world America will be no exception and this is from the Federal Reserve This Is Us mining production and Mining production has been declining slightly or growing very anemic producing less but the prices of the metals that they're pulling up are much more valuable now that changes a lot of


things and Watch What Happens here's a chart of gold and you're going to see how they now are going to be reporting quarter two in the middle of July those should be some pretty good numbers in my opinion but a lot of companies are doing pretty well not just the miners a lot of stocks are going up a lot of those companies that make up the stock market are doing pretty well earnings are increasing take a look at this 10-year chart this is from the Bureau of economic analysis this is corporate


profits and from the Federal Reserve here's industrial production I would describe this chart if I had to describe it in three words those words would be ugly I also want to show you the US Richmond Manufacturing Index this is from the Federal Reserve of richment you should pay attention not only to the fact that nine of the last 12 months have shown a decline but also the total magnitude of those declines compared to the increases the weight of the ink on the chart but the US Bureau of economic


analysis wants us to see real consumer spending quarter over quarter and this is absolutely anemic especially for an economy which is driven 70% by consumers also the spending levels which fed into the information for this read they were on a bunch of products which were at inflated prices those prices are now coming down which can mean an even lower consumer spending read next quarter all other things being equal here's a 5year chart of the consumer price index but you have to love the government what they do is


they say well all these things are costing more and it's reflecting that in the CPI but inflation and food are too volatile so we're just going to strip that out it's kind of like unfunded liabilities well that's not debt that's just something else so they strip out energy and food prices and there's your core inflation rate but from the Bureau of Labor Statistics you guys have been hearing a lot about increasing rent prices you'll see it's slides lower every month lower next month lower next


month lower it reminds me of this clip from Office Space one of my favorite movies ever since I started working um every single day of my life has been worse than the day before it so that means that every single day that you see me that's on the worst day of my life what about today is today the worst day of your life yeah wow that's messed up this is from the US Census Bureau this is new home average sales price and this is from the National Association of Realtors it's a 5-year chart of existing


home sales but I'd be remiss if I didn't include the S&P ker home price index standard and po this is a five-year chart and from the organization of economic cooperation this is the price of a house to the rent ratio and you can see it's been quite a climb as home prices get comparative ly more overvalued compared to rent it will make the number climb I also want to show you from the National Association Realtors and try and put all these pieces together this is a big story I want to


show you surgical tactical points and then you can understand or decide for yourself what you believe is going on but you know how I always tell you about how the supply of homes will heal itself organically this is total housing inventory from the National Association of Realtors and it's climbed in five straight reads pretty quickly too there's nothing suggesting that this will not continue on that pace we are in a capitalistic Society if there's money to be made because there's demand for


housing then there will be a lot of houses being built businesses are always trying to find more money they're trying to make money and if there's a demand they fill that demand it's a capitalistic Society what I'm telling you I've told you before about how if there's a bunch of wolves and they overeat and over hunt all the deer then the deer population Falls and then the wolf population finds that food is fewer and further between each meal and all of a sudden the Wolves start starving off


and as they starve off and their population gets smaller the deer find more ability to flourish to mate to breed and all of a sudden the deer population increases by a lot they adjust it's capital ISM and it'll solve every single problem that we're dealing with in the economy today this is from the US Census Bureau construction spending another ugly chart and I also wanted to show you that the Dallas fed Manufacturing Index is all negative and I got to show you this one more time because it's such an


unbelievable chart this is the M2 money supply from the St Louis fed I didn't even know that charts could be drawn in this manner but in all of this what is happening to consumer spending this is from the Bureau of economic analysis this is consumer spending and at the end of this video I need to show you a short video that my girlfriend Jane took on the Mean Streets of Detroit that's going to be at the end of this video there's a lot going on right now especially in southern Lebanon I hope you guys are


watching that that's going to change everything it's so much bigger than anyone is recognizing this is going to bring eight different countries into the war immediately but I digress and if you want to keep on top of this stuff and communicate with me directly then you're going to want to look into becoming a Peter Leeds Insider you can learn all about that at Peter leads.com [Music]