I've got a fun one for you today I figured that we should take a look at the prices of things on January 1st of this year and then compare it to today which is June 18th 2024 and we'll watch and see what happened to a lot of the things prices of a lot of things we're looking at Gold lumber Silver oil house prices even some fun things like copper and cheese we're going to get into all of it we'll talk about how their prices changed over time and some of the major things that have happened during that


time and there's a lot of major things going on right now that are going to affect a lot of these things we're talking about today and it seems like no one's paying attention to how big this is going to be but in the next 3 or 4 weeks or so I believe that the world is going to start realizing and recognizing that this Invasion into Lebanon by Israeli Defense Forces is almost certain to happen and that would be a major major escalation that would have all kinds of ramifications and the purpose


this video isn't to get into all those right now but I'm just telling you that this is a likelihood it's a probability and everybody who's watching it mainly people in Lebanon in Iran people in Israel they understand that this is going to break out it's people the masses of the world are not really understanding yet or recognizing yet how Monumental this is going to be when this indeed does happen I've been talking about this since October meanwhile Russia's at war with NATO basically a


proxy War it's a cold war right now but you've got nuclear weapons in Poland you've got everyone including both sides increasing their nuclear arsenals as if we didn't have enough already but the purpose of this video is not to scare you so we're going to move on we'll talk about the prices of things on January 1st and then we'll talk about what happened to them over the year so far see if you can remember or guess what the price was on January 1st for gold it was $2,062


while silver was 2379 and precious medals are one of the things that gets a risk premium built into it so if you remember Iran was actually literally shooting at Israel a direct attack from Iran which is a first that was a few months back and since all these wars have been breaking out for a long time now they are just going to get worse and worse I don't see how with the setup we have right now with everything that's going on how this deescalate before something horrible happens but there's nothing you can do


about it nothing I can do about it but you can position yourself so that when it does indeed happen you actually land on your feet a big part of the trade I recently made that I sent out to subscribers of the Peter Leeds newsletter was about putting more money on the table for things like oil and gold right before a lot of things are going to start escalating ating in my opinion and so few people have their eye on this ball right now just the people who are directly involved but not a lot of people that I know are actually


watching this you have to actually search it to get most of the information that you need to understand what's going on in Lebanon and with Northern Israel a couple other points the gold to Silver ratio on January 1st was 78.92 and it's wrong I always tell you this it should be the silver to gold ratio there how many ounces of silver to buy one of gold but everyone calls it the gold to Silver ratio fine so that's where it was on January 1st and we'll tell you where it is today in just a


couple of minutes real estate on average the house price was just under half a millionar it was $498,500 on average to buy a home in the United States on January 1st Lumber was $572 per board foot cheese was $155 and copper Dr copper which is in everything and it's a great indicator of overall economic activity it was at $384 but going back to Precious Metals we got to talk a little bit about the downside of this too I know that you've seen me talking up precious metals for years and now


there is some risk that they might have overreached but we'll talk about that in this video so besides the risk premium which could Spike at any moment the only reason that an investor should expect expect precious bals to decline is if you believe that all this monetary creation is going to stop the monetary creation which paid our bills to get us through the pandemic monetary creation which pays our bills to cover the deficit the operating deficit of the country the trade deficit as well only


half of the dollars that we need to pay for what we spend money on comes from taxation now that's really really unhealthy that's really low this is a chart from World gold Council and it shows you gold reserves by country and you'll see that the gold is all moving to Asia gold is real money it's actual money it's not like currency is money currency is just a way of keeping track of things gold is actual money always has been always will be but you can see the aggressive waiting of gold going


towards Asia and here's a chart from the world gold Council the above ground stock of gold and something big is coming up that I've told you about the quarter two earnings results for a lot of these major miners this is from bullion by post gold prices now if you look at quarter one that was a higher base of gold prices so they made better earnings revenues but then look at quarter two which is not reported until halfway through July the entire quarter they were selling precious metals for


much higher prices therefore the revenues will be much higher therefore their earnings will be much higher the only way that a lot of these stocks report bad numbers as if they're totally mismanaging their inventory or the resource or they've already gone up so much that people are expecting even more so when they report oh we only made $7 per share people are like well we thought it was going to be $9 and so they sell the stock that's the way that the shares would go down when they


report what it's going to be some pretty strong numbers is coming up in my opinion but we got a wonderful question from Mark a longtime subscriber one of my favorites and let me tell you what he said and then let me tell you what I said in response to that Mark says the question is a do you believe I'm correct in how gold mining stocks will act in the stock market crash and recover prior to Mid and large cap stocks into that I said there's two parts A and B to part A I said exactly especially if there's b as


wild monetary creation as it always seems to be the dollar devaluation and purchasing power liquidation will be what eventually drives gold higher that force will likely overwhelm the counter forces of economic decline so in a stock market crash I've always said that it'll be bad for everything nothing is the Safe Harbor in that at first when people are panicking and liquidating look for blood in the streets that's when it shows up but at first a lot of these Gold Miner stocks would come down in a


big stock market crash for sure but they will just like Mark says he's absolutely right that they will be the first to recover out of this especially when the response by the government will be massive monetary creation to deal with all these problems that there's no other way to deal with when people start suffering from the economic weakness the lower interest rates which is great for gold and precious battels they'll print a whole bunch of money which is great for gold and precious


metals and that in my opinion and it's an opinion will offset the negative forces that'll happen with the stock market crash at first you might want to make some moves when it's first happening but then make sure you're back invested before they have that recovery bounce Mark goes on to say B I'm concerned about silver stocks because Approximately 80% is for industrial use and in the stock market crash or recession all those industries use the silver will temporarily drastically drop


Silver's price per ounce and what I said to him was be also a concern not advice it may be wise to watch for the first signs of collapse and then lighten your positions so much as riding on the type and manner of downturn we experience and then the government response banking crisis currency devaluation let me get into it and I'll build it into an upcoming video here's the video right now again it all matters so much what kind of downturn we're seeing if we get a 10% decline that's not going to be anything


to worry about if there's more like the Great Depression then yeah here's a chart of silver prices at the time silver prices went drastically low and then they did recover but you don't want to sit there and have dead money while you're waiting for it to recover you might want to some people might want to act ahead of time when they start seeing symptoms of a declining stock market or stock market crash but long term don't even worry about precious metals especially gold don't even worry about


it but you also want to have a lot of fresh cash on the sidelines in the event of a stock market draw down if you sell some of your mining stocks and the Crash happens and they get less expensive and then you buy back in that is one way I see that you could play this upcoming stock market weakness that I'm expecting now oil which was at $722 on January 1st was suffering from some demand concerns as the global economy slows down in a lot of different regions Japan Europe North America and as a recession approaches United States


as I told you it eventually will be here there's big deflationary forces because of the diminished amount of activity just like I told you in that Spike and fade video I did recently oil's doing exactly what I told you was going to do it's got a bias to drift lower and at the same time there's so many things that can spike it dramatically in a very short window of time so as it fades away it'll pop like popcorn it'll bounce if something happens something breaks out in southern Lebanon or with the houthis


or with Syria as the war expands there are numerous things that could cause oil prices to go up 5 or 10% in a couple of days and when that's not happening oil is just drifting lower with the economy and the real estate this is from the St Louis fed the average price on January 1st was $498,500 for a house here is a chart from Trading economics about average house prices this is a 5-year chart I also want to show you total housing inventory this is a one-year chart and you'll notice that housing


inventory is is still much too weak here's a 5-year chart of total housing inventory and then one more chart this is construction spending the more construction spending the more houses get built and put into the inventory thus lowering overall prices but if you remember it wasn't too long ago that lumber prices were incredibly high it was a big problem we're only looking at it from January 1st when they were at $572 per board foot but if you look at this chart of lumber prices long-term chart you'll see


there and there that's when there was a massive problem with the prices of lumber when inflation was running out of control and all of a sudden you're paying so much more for the lumber that it's actually affecting the number of houses you build number of houses that get bought because the price is so much higher there's a couple of times there recently when people are really feeling the effects industries were really feeling the effects of really high lumber prices and now inflation is


starting to scale down except for grocery bills people are going to buy their groceries they're still paying more than they used to they're feeling it still and this is even after or during a time when Walmart and Target are lowering prices on thousands of items across the board we're still not quite back to where we were to a more comfortable level where families aren't so strapped or taxed this is from Trading economics cheese prices and I'm getting ahead of myself here a bit but


you'll see that they've gone up to $25 from a155 only six months ago but I did want to talk about copper it was at $384 January 1st 2024 but here's a long-term 45-year chart from macro trends of copper prices plus check out some of these headlines that I pulled up for you guys this is from Bas re staff copper prices surge amid Supply cuts and AI demand a new super cycle begins and this is from oil price.com us automakers raised to offset the rise in copper prices and this is from carbon credits.com why


copper prices are surging and what to expect no matter how you look at it copper prices are likely to rise in the next half of this year especially when they start lowering interest rates or printing new money for talking about in terms of United States but overall as the global economy bottoms out and then starts building up again there'll be more demands on copper there's Industries like artificial intelligence electric vehicles that are demanding more copper to produce the products that


they're going to produce the lower inflation goes the more likely the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates which will Spike things like stocks precious metals it'll hurt the US dollar oil and other Commodities will climb much higher in price including cheese and copper and cotton and coffee and pork bellies and soybeans I still believe that we are going to have a recession especially because we're just now entering the height of this default Deluge I've been talking you guys about


for many years now it's all starting to happen now a lot of bankruptcy is going on right now rising delinquencies Rising homelessness Rising layoffs unemployment rate will climb along with all this awareness especially among other countries worldwide that are watching it happen they know that we're taking advantage of the US dollar just by printing more and more of it it's all going to lead to a banking crisis very likely the next couple years and a dollar crisis eventually when people say


it's not logical that you can just make up a whole bunch of money and then buy a whole bunch of stuff and we give it to you meanwhile you've got a lot of bankruptcies to come from a lot of these office buildings that are less than half rented out right now because everyone's working from home or they've been replaced by artificial intellig Federal Reserve will drop rates but they will do that too late they'll do it when they have to because the economy itself is going the exact way that I expect it


to go then when it's already falling they'll come along go we're going to save the day they'll drop rates aggressively they'll print another massive Deluge of money all of which deteriorates the value of each individual dollar if you have $1 there's only 100 of them that's a valuable dollar if you have $1 and there's $10 billion of them that dollar is not worth as much because of the unbridled supply of them the Federal Reserve will instruct the department of the treasury


to produce a tremendous amount of money in my script here I wrote exorbitant that's going to drive inflation it'll Spike stocks in real estate and cryptocurrencies and bread and cheese and bus passes everything will cost more because the value of the dollar is less so January 1st gold prices were $2,062 then by June 18th there were $2,338 a pretty strong rise while there's such a massive Global demand for it plus a risk premium from all these Wars breaking out silver prices likewise


went from $23.79 to $294 and it performed gold in that time I I told you that silver will always perform gold on average over time as long as the gold to Silver ratio is so out of whack it's really high right now it's at 78.92 that's historically very high historically it should be closer to 40 but on January 1st is at 8670 so over time you saw that the gold to Silver ratio normalized a little bit more it'll keep a performing silver will keep up performing gold on average over time not


every every day but every week every month because it will do that until the silver to gold ratio or the gold to Silver ratio normalizes closer to 40 oil was at $722 on January 1st of this year and now 6 months later it's at $784 yeah a little bit higher but absolutely not me close to where it should be based on all these massive macroeconomic events that are playing out right now if you think that the Cuban Missile Crisis was a big deal this is the situation we're in right now is so much more extreme and important and


possibly devastating than that actually was there's too many flash points and too many small groups of people who can affect things going on that are going to decide that they want things to get worse you don't need an entire country to go okay we're going to go to war with this other country you just need a small selection of people who have military capabilities decide to do something you're seeing this with the houthi rebels you're seeing this with incoming missiles from Syria into Israeli


territory there's zero chance very low chance that Israel does not have to have some kind of military response to Hezbollah and I'm not putting my own position on this at all I'm just telling you guys it's almost certain to happen and when it does it's a massive massive escalation in every aspect of everything oil prices should be over $100 already based on what is obviously going to be happening in my opinion real estate went from $498,000 to $300 which is already out of affordability for anybody that's


going to be buying a house for most people and now it's already gone up from then to $513,500 that's according to St Louis fed Lumber went for $572 per board foot on January 1st to 495 now so that's an example of one of the things that is decreasing in price there's a lot of them right now but as I told you earlier it's not the same with cheese for example $155 to $25 and Copper Rose from $384 to $4.50 and that was over a time when a lot of economies Germany China were slowing down it would have been even


more extreme of a rise if these economies have been picking up speed at that time but copper is just another commodity that as I said it's a great reflection of economic activity but all Commodities will increase in price in calendar measure to the direction of the US dollar when the dollar goes higher a lot of Commodities get cheaper because the dollar is more valuable when the dollar goes lower you have to pay more dollars to buy the same amount of whatever asset whatever commodity but the real question


is where does all this go next I called it for the Canadian real estate market and that could have been called by an 8-year-old kid because Canada's real estate market was the most heavily overvalued real estate market anywhere on the earth and it wasn't too difficult to know that it was going to be coming down but I also think that us house prices are going to come down a lot and they haven't yet they keep climbing and you can say it's about inventory you can say it's about inflation but when


something gets so out of realistic reach the people are going to be buying the houses when it's difficult for them to do that there's eventually a breaking point I don't think that any of these host prices will be anywhere close to where they are when and as we enter a lot of dark times ahead for the economy that I'm seeing coming and yes a lot of great things are happening for the economy things are being touted about wow low unemployment Etc yes but overall the entire economy is fueled by debt growing debt that's


why we keep just taking on more and more debt and creating more and more money but we're not actually creating the money as much as just saying that it exists we're not creating it through productivity if your neighbor is living off debt driving a fancy car he's broke the interest rates will be lowered especially in response to any kind of economic breakdown and even more especially in an election year the recession will get here and when it does unemployment will start climbing higher


unemployment's always low until the recession shows up precious metals will continue to climb in Reverse to whatever happens with the US dollar which I'm expecting to come down pretty dramatically it's held its strength up pretty well a lot of worst currencies are keeping it lofted but it's a bunch of currencies all comparing themselves to each other that are all Fiat currencies it's all the smoking mirrors nobody's comparing it to gold gold is worth more than any other currency


worldwide every single currency which exists it takes more of that to buy gold and gold this whole time thousands of years has never changed price oil will continue to fade under the pressure of slowing economies worldwide especially when the recession gets to America but it will be prone to massive sudden spikes 5% higher 10% higher when one event happens and then it'll start trickling down after that it might Spike again trickle down but overall it's heading lower as we'll also see for


lumber and cheese and copper prices they will all drift lower but be mainly range-bound nothing dramatic is going to happen with these you are going to want to keep an eye on a lot of this stuff especially the macroeconomic events that are happening right now this is so huge this is so huge and nobody's paying attention to it feels like you can watch you can search if you look for it you'll find it take a search for Hezbollah to see some of the things that are happening there right now hundreds of


missiles being shot each way this is before an actual official War breaks out if you want to keep an eye on it like I'm suggesting definitely subscribe to these videos I'll help keep an eye on it for you the Peter lead's newsletter is one of the most popular financial publications of all time