In 1929, it was the stock market that was overvalued, uh, not gold, and we weren't in a real estate bubble. In 1966, the stock market got overvalued, and we had something called the invisible crash. Then we went into a severe bubble in 2000, and everybody knows how the crash of the NASDAQ worked out, the the tech bubble. Uh, and that was again a stock market bubble, but not a real estate bubble. Then in 2008, the global financial crisis was with the stock market was not in a bubble. It was slightly overvalued. That was a real


estate crash that drug the stock market down with it. This time we are in a stock market bubble and a real estate bubble of historic proportions just before some sort of big financial crisis. And it looks like we were in are in the midst of a monetary reset. This is going to be horrific. Hi, it's Mike and Allan once again with the Gold Silver Show and Allan has some economic data for us. Alan, why don't you hit us with your presentation? Yes. Here we go. Mike, I want to take a look at a lot of things happening in the


economy from real estate to the job market to auto loans, credit cards, and take a look at what the American consumer is doing. And spoiler alert, it does not look very good. So, we start here with the top 10% of American households own 87% of all stocks. nearly 85% of all private businesses and 44% of real estate. And I love the way this is phrased. Another way of looking at this, the bottom 90% in America increasingly don't matter in official economic data. When you don't get assets, you're


squeezed out. You just simply miss out on the rest of the so-called economy. >> Yeah. And the one way to for for somebody that doesn't have a lot of resources to start with, you have to find something that you think is going to outperform the other asset classes. Sort of focus on that thing. For me, it has been silver, gold, and silver. And, you [clears throat] know, this this century so far has proven me right. Um, and I'm still bit betting on silver to outperform all of these other things so


that when we get to a top, I can acquire a whole lot more of these other things than I'm actually paying for. The silver gave me the leverage. >> Exactly. You're using the wealth cycles. I wish we could teach that to everybody. Even the bottom 90%. They can do it, too. >> It's the bottom 90% that needs that really needs to learn it. that you know the mission for golds.com is to try and save that bottom 90% because uh during huge economic crisis which I do see coming I believe it's absolutely coming


at this point uh that is where the Hitlers the uh Lenins and and the Maus of the world come crawling out of the wood woodwork these snakes it's when the middle class is impoverished uh and they're scared and they'll vote for anybody body that promises, you know, gives them a scapegoat and promises them a way out of their predicament. >> Yep. Exactly. Well, that economic crash you're talking about that you think is coming, take a look at these charts and tell me if you think it's here or not.


[laughter] So, so, all right, our next one here. US serious credit card delinquencies are at crisis levels. The share of US credit card balances 90 days or more delinquent rose to over 12% in the first half of this year. The highest level in 15 years. The only time that this level was higher was during the financial crisis. And look how quickly it's going up the last few years. Very, very fast. >> And isn't uh 12% about one out of every eight >> Yes. >> people? >> Yep.


>> Wow. One out of every eight can't pay their credit cards on time. This is uh this is amazing. Uh and yeah, it's accelerated since 2022 when when the stimmy checks stopped. Right. >> Yep. Exactly. >> Right. >> Rising rising very quickly could easily overtake the global financial crisis. We'll see. >> And it will because the crisis has not even started yet. This is the the speed bump on the way to the main event event. It's the prelude to the crisis. And so


you're starting a crisis at these high levels >> where this has never happened before. And it just shows you how bad the crisis is going to be when it hits. Okay. >> I agree. I agree. >> Americans are falling behind on their car payments at alarming rates. Subprime auto loan delinquency rates reached 6.4%, the second highest on record. And the 60-day delinquency rate for subprime auto loans has more than doubled over the last three years. So look >> highest on record, but the the first


highest is just what a year ago. >> It looks like it. Yeah, they're grouped together pretty closely. So yeah, >> so this is this whole century. Wow. Look at how you know it peaked the the global financial crisis peaked at 5%. And then what was going on in 2018, 2019, and 2020. I mean, it shows you that there was really something brewing before COVID happened and allowed them to paper over the cracks using uh this global emergency as the excuse. Something was going on back then. But to


be at these levels and the crisis hasn't even started yet. We haven't had a stock market crash. We haven't had real estate crash yet. Um, you know, I say yet because I'm pretty sure that there's something I'm surprised it didn't happen in October. Uh, October is usually that spooky month. We may have a springtime crash this year. Who knows? >> Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. >> I know that I would rather be ready for it uh and be years early than one day too late. And even though I feel like


I'm years early, I'm still invested in the best performing asset class of the century other than cryptos. So, >> exactly. Next up, car seizures due to not making the required loan payments are at their highest level since the global financial crisis. And you can see up here we're at about 1.7 million cars repossessed last year. And we will see what the next data point is next year. But uh because 2025 hasn't finished yet, but I'll bet that we are way above the global financial crisis


levels. >> Yep. I bet we break records. We could hit 2 million. I mean, it's that's not a record you want to break. >> And the crisis hasn't started yet. That's the thing. This is this is the floor that we're lifting off from. This is going to be bad. And we have US layoffs are spiking. US-based employers announced over 150,000 job cuts in October alone, the highest for any October since 2003. So this even exceeds the pace seen during the great financial crisis. All those October, 2008, 2009.


Okay, we had even more layoffs this October. Year to date, over 1 million layoffs have been announced. The US job market is struggling. So maybe it makes sense to look at all the layoffs recently. Look at all these companies. UPS 48,000 employees. Amazon 30,000 and so on. This is a long list. >> Uhhuh. >> It's uh not good. >> Yep. >> The labor market is clearly weakening. I would agree with that. >> Uh my business cycle model has never been wrong. The leading economic


indicator index uh it's crossed into negative territory and so a recession has come every time that that has happened since 1950. >> Pretty long. pretty long time, >> not too many signals, not missing any recessions. So the LEI is now the most negative we have seen it since the late 1970s. And so basically when it goes that far negative, we get a recession every single time >> except for the global financial crisis, right? Um but uh one thing when I was looking at this earlier uh the spread


between uh the red line and the blue line right now is larger than at any time except for the global financial crisis. If you go to the uh 2002 uh that one. Yeah. The spread there, the blue line is already below the u black center line and it's the bottom of that dip is uh not as low as we are now. So that was the the other than the global financial crisis where the information falls right off the bottom of the chart. So we actually don't know what the spread was. This is the largest spread.


Uh when does the data start? In the 70s sometime. >> Yeah. Here's the 1970s. Yep. >> 76 or something. >> Yeah. >> Amazing. Yeah. >> Yeah. So leading economic indicator. Speaking of taking that same indicator, comparing it with the S&P 500, the leading economic indicators have never missed a recession signal. Not once. Every single time the S&P 500 has followed with a sharp correction. This time the signals are flashing red again. Is it really different now? I'm not


betting on that. So, what we're looking at here, >> hi, it's Mike here. Just a quick message. I wanted to welcome the huge number of new visitors to our videos, but point out that less than 15% of our viewers have subscribed to this channel and hit the notification bell. We're heading into some turbulent times, so if you don't want to miss any updates, make sure you enable notifications. And thank you as always for clicking the thumbs up button. One more thing, at goldsilver.com, we've been providing


top-notch educational content for over 20 years. If you'd like to help us continue this mission, we'd be honored to be your precious metals dealer. And now back to the video. So, what we're looking at here is we see the LEI, the predictor in this sort of orange line and the S&P in the black line. And if you look at the green and the red boxes that are that are shading normally where we get recessions, what those are indicating is the S&P 500 rising while the LEI is falling. That's


>> a divergence, right? >> Exactly. Divergence between the two and then back to back. What happens immediately after that green box is we get a red box. That's the S&P 500 crashing. So it goes green, red, green, red, green, red, green, red. And now we have this big green box probably gonna get a red one, meaning the S&P 500 will crash. >> Yeah, the real economy and the financial economy uh basically diverged. When does this last green one start? What's the date on the bottom there?


>> 2022. >> 2022. So that is how long um Main Street has been uh diverging from Wall Street. >> Yeah. Yeah. It looks like uh more a little over three full years. Yep. >> Wow. >> Long time. >> Another thing saying that when this happens, it's going to be bad. >> Unfortunately, I don't want it to happen, but I mean, these things are out of my control. So, right, >> all I can do is get prepared and educate as many people as possible. >> Next up, breaking. The delinquency rate


on commercial mortgage back securities for offices surged 63 basis points in October to a record 11.8%. This is now over a full percentage point above the 2008 financial crisis peak of 10.7%. So look where we are way up here. We've never been this high before. We're higher right >> than all the crises before. >> Yeah. You know, another thing I'd like to point out again is the steepness and and the it's it's pretty steep after 2009 during the global financial crisis,


but at 7% it sort of levels off for a little period of time and then rises again. Look at the uh move that we have made since 20 the beginning of 2023. So it's this two year less than two years of data uh we have moved from 1.7% or something like that all the way up to over 12. This is or no not over 12 118. >> Mhm. >> So this is Yep. This is really going to be bad when it happens. This is is one of the triggers. It's one of those things that is uh laying in weight and these


commercial mortgage back securities are going to crash to zero just like the regular residential mortgage back securities did back in 2008. >> Yeah, I think so too. >> Bailouts by the Fed. I mean, it's just this is destined to happen. >> Exactly. And all the all the bailouts are going to make all the problems that much worse, you know, for the little guys. So, >> yeah. This is a result of them papering over all the cracks last time with with currency. Just type currency into


existence. >> Exactly. It's a shame. Housing data shows home sellers now outnumber buyers by more than 500,000. That's the largest imbalance ever recorded in the real estate market. Home sales are headed for their worst year since 1995. That's 30 years. >> Oh, okay. So, this person has data going back to 1995, but this only shows it going back to 2012. >> Exactly. >> Yeah, because it says uh largest imbalance ever recorded in the market. Um I don't there's probably no data


available for the stock market crash of 29 and the Great Depression, but but I'll bet on a percentage basis uh it was even larger than this. So, but again, the crisis hasn't started yet. This this is already in place before something triggers the crisis. And so, uh, real estate, both commercial and residential, is really headed for something bad here. You know, I want to point out one more time also that in 1929, it was the stock market that was overvalued, uh, not gold, and we weren't


in a real estate bubble. In 1966, the stock market got overvalued and we had something called the invisible crash where the stock market the Dow bumped its head on a thousand points in 1966 and couldn't break through until 1982. But during that period of time, we had raging inflation. Company revenues doubled or tripled during that 16 years. And uh that caused PE ratios to go back to extreme undervalued by 1982. They were overvalued. All of the indicators, Buffett indicator, PE ratios and so on


said that the stock market was in a bubble in ' 66. It worked its way off. Then we went into a severe bubble in 2000 and everybody knows how the crash of the NASDAQ worked out, the the tech bubble. Uh and that was again a stock market bubble, but not a real estate bubble. Then in 2008, the global financial crisis was with the stock market was not in a bubble. It was slightly overvalued but not much. During the the tech crash of 2000, we came back down to uh reason almost reasonable valuations. They were a little bit high,


but the stock market was not in a bubble. That was a real estate crash that drug the stock market down with it. This time we are in a stock market bubble and a real estate bubble of historic proportions just before some sort of big financial crisis and it looks like we were in are in the midst of a monetary reset. This is going to be horrific. I agree completely. Doesn't look good. New house prices have dropped below existing homes for the first time in history. So this right here is the new construction premium. So


basically the uh the amount you would pay extra for a new home compared to buying an existing home. >> Yeah. >> And there used to be a pretty sizable premium here almost 40%. Not quite. >> And over the last 10 years it's vanished. Now there is no premium. It's it's >> about to turn negative. So you don't you pay more for an existing home than you would for a new home. That's that's unbelievable. >> That means they built too many new homes. But but uh wow. Uh, I've never


seen this before. So, that is uh huge news. And it says that the bubble is getting closer to bursting. >> Yes. Yes, indeed. Almost never in the history of the US economy has consumer sentiment been so depressed. US consumer sentiment fell to 50.3 points in October, the second lowest ever. It is now 10 points below the great financial crisis and below all recessions that we've ever had. What kind of crisis is this? >> Wow. And the crisis hasn't started yet. >> Not officially.


>> And this data goes back into the 70s. So you get a a real good uh you know historic reference here. Uh wow. This is this is really really bad when you add all of these things together. Yeah, it is. >> It is. I wish we could help people, but that's that's what we're do here doing here every day. >> Well, this is how you help yourself right here. [laughter] >> How do how do I buy silver, right? How to buy silver on Google hits a record high. Look, this looks like all the


other charts, right? We're higher now than we were during the financial crisis. >> Like, if I didn't tell you what this was, you you'd think there's a pattern here. It's it's how do I protect myself from all the economic shenanigans, >> right? And the good thing is that this is happening before uh the the big crisis hits. The stock markets and real estate have not begun to crash yet. But you know it is time to get prepared. And I think it's good that uh people are


actually and basically this has been caused by the price runup. So this is the people with the fear of missing out, the people chasing uh price, not the people getting prepared. So that was excellent. Thank you very much, Alan. >> You're welcome. I want to end with one more meme. Americans, why does life keep getting more expensive? The Federal Reserve. [laughter] >> Excellent. I want to thank everybody for watching and thank you for preparing this, Alan. >> Hey, thanks, Mike. Thanks everyone.