gold news

 There's two fairly clear road maps and they they hinge on the silver chart. Now, >> whatever you're seeing here, silver going to 50, silver going to 100, it's nothing. It's nothing compared to what's going to happen after once the stock market goes in a severe bare market. >> Gold is winning here versus technology. >> Hello, Gold Silver family. Hey, Alan Hibbert here with another video and today I want to give us an update on the capital rotation event because a few

months ago we had the gentleman from Northstar Bad Charts on the channel to show us just how much gold and silver have been outperforming everything else and since that time the outperformance has increased dramatically. So I want to welcome back to the show Patrick Kum and Kevin Wadsworth. Gentlemen, welcome back. >> Thanks for having us back on Alan. It's It's great to be here and uh lots to talk about today, haven't we? >> Yes. Hi, Alan. >> Hi. Thank you guys. Uh so you're from

Northstar Bad Charts and you guys have been pioneering the idea of a capital rotation event. So can you explain what that means, the capital rotation event, and why you're calling this one a super CR? >> Okay, guys. I'm going to show you a chart right now because of course you guys if you you know that if it's Kevin or I there being interviewed there, you want to see the charts. And this is a pretty big one there that I remember like even Ken and I we draw a whole bunch of charts and sometimes oh we see

some lines morphing into existence but then we we focus our attention on the shorter term but then like recently there I had this chart out it's this is the Dow Jones priced in silver and I'll tell you why I priced silver because silver was uh free floating way more than gold was back in the days. Remember gold was pegged and then and then the silver price kept going up. oil price kept going up. So, they were people think like it's the government that decided to unpeg it there. But they were

actually forced by the the market forces to unpeg it. But because of silver's granularity, when you do a ratio chart with the stock market here, the Dow Jones priced in silver, you see more granularity, more realistic uh support lines or trend lines to use prior to the 1970s, right? And this is critical for what's we're going to showcase to you today. So, this is a two-month chart. So, every every time there's a new data point, it's two months. And you'll see here we have one touch point, two,

three, four touch point. And then you had a break back in uh late early 1960s, late 1960s. This is a 45 year rising support line. So, the balance, the capital rotation, the the balance between is money going to stocks, so this this charge going up, or is money leaving stocks in favor of silver or gold? uh this is going down is critical and right now we had that 45 year line trend break late in the 1960s. You had a beautiful uh left shoulder, head and shoulders, right shoulders, like whatever you want to call it. I'm

not a stickler for head and shoulder patterns. What it does tell me head and shoulders though is you have a high, then a lower high, and that's the beginning of a downtrend. And as soon as you break below a I could have drawn here a horizontal line. As soon as you break below that, then you get a new confirmed downtrend. >> You know, when when technical analysts like myself and Pat draw lines on charts to join points of support or resistance, it's important that they're corroborated

and confirmed by additional evidence. So, you'll see on that chart, although the lines that we put on are very subjective sometimes and it can be more of a zone of support, the objective part of it comes from the long-term moving average there. That's the red line. That's um is it the three or four year moving average there Pat? I'm not sure. But it's a long >> Yeah, [clears throat] it's a 36 period times two months. So it's uh >> yeah, 72 >> 72 months moving average.

>> So it's a long-term moving average and we've got the something called the Ichimoku cloud on there. That's the red and green sort of splodgy thing which is a technical um indicator. What we can say about it is that bull markets occur above the moving average in Ichimoku Cloud and bare markets occur below it. So when you break below a support line, if you're also breaking below the moving average and the Ichimoka cloud, you've got multiple pieces of evidence that are confirming the thesis that you are

entering a bare market on that chart. And of course, a bare market on this chart when the chart's going down means that silver is outperforming the stock market. Okay. So, sorry, Pat. >> That's right. No, that's good. And here here we have So, that's the the analog. Here we had the runup of the the the 1930 1929 bull market in the US stocks. Here we had the bull market from the 1980s all the way to 2000s.com bubble. That was the first mini CRE. And then after that we're having this failed

continuation pattern in favor of stocks. Exactly the same type of pattern. Exactly the same type. So it's not I guess it's not exactly the same but it's you know analog is it's similar. And we're having the price now of the Dow Jones price in silver below that 72 month moving average below the Ichimoku cloud below. I could have drawn here another support line. And now it's tagging an equivalent 45 year rising line. I'm calling it line and not trend line so far because you need a reaction

to morph a line into a valid trend line. So right now we're expecting something here and that's pretty much like the big picture. If we were to have a 1970s redux and I have more evidence. I'll show you the other charts. We'll show you the macro why this is like we're heading to 1970 and we're not at the end of a 1970 move that we're really close to the beginning of a 1970 moves. It's because of this. Here's just a little another way to see this uh big picture

Dow Jones price and silver chart here. I drew those slightly um angled trend lines. But here's the momentum, guys. This distance from that 72-month moving average. You see it lower highs, lower highs. That means while the Dow Jones is still outpacing silver, it's not outpacing it as fast and that means you're vulnerable for a draw down when you're you like a really bullish phase for the Dow Jones is if you're exploding versus silver. But as even if the price of the Dow outperforms

silver, but if you're doing lower highs, lower highs, it doesn't mean the Dow is underperforming silver, but it means it's set up for that to happen. And look at that. Look at the setup we had from 1953 all the way to 19 late 1960s. From uh I think that could be early two 2015 or 14. Look at that. Lower highs, lower highs. It's like I think it must have crashed cuz that charts from September 25th, Kevin, my goodness. It's >> in particular. The point to note on this is as you said, we've got divergence

there. The Dow Jones is outperforming silver on the top whilst the momentum indicator at the bottom is falling. But the point when you um see the top chart really plunging is when it crosses the zero line on that indicator at the bottom. You got the zero line there. And the zero line all that is that shows you where the three uh the 36 period moving average is. So in other words, when the chart on the top touches the 36 period moving average, uh that's when you're touching the zero line. and moving below

that zero line and move the price on the chart moving below the 36 period moving average. That's um that's when um things start that's when you start to get the problems. >> That's right. You're you're just setting yourself up there for that fall. I'll show you another one, guys, more evidence. So, I kept that same chart from the previous slide up here. I squeezed it up here. What I did is, and this is very important because people who just look at short-term data, they

don't understand that gold or silver can move alongside the US equities. And hopefully this will be an eye openener for you guys. Here I have the silver chart. It's the uh the black line, the or the um not the black line, but the uh what color is that? Red. I'm color blind. It's like a dark dark red. This one? [laughter] >> Yes. Yes. Red. >> And then I have the Dow Jones, the blue line. But look at that guys from the 1929 lows there after the stock market crash there. Silver look at the silver

line. Look at silver up up up up. People don't see that because people they always look at the gold chart. It was pegged. It was flat and they can't imagine it's like you know like oh nothing was happening for gold for that period. No, I could have put the oil chart on that Allen. Same thing. So you'll see that gold in these and I'll show you why this is happening. why silver is moving up and gold if it was unpegged it would been moving up. Oil is moving up, why they're moving up

alongside the Dow. And we've been having that pretty much since maybe the late uh 2017 2019 and we've been moving alongside the Dow. Like why is that? Here at the bottom, guys, is the 10-year yields. And look what was happening to the 10-year yields right above that phase when silver was moving up with uh the Dow Jones there era and like really starting to move up. Look at that. It's starting to move upwards upwards. Higher lows, higher highs in the late in the early 1950s. And it kept doing that up and up. See

higher higher lows, higher highs. Guess what it's starting to do now again? Higher lows, higher highs. It's not quite, you know, sometimes we want it to fit perfectly, you know, condense it perfectly, but essentially there's a new uptrend right now in the 10-year yields and we know that leading up all the way to the 60s, it was a nifty50, right? The Dow Jones went up, everything was going up, but silver was also going up leading to that. People always always forget that and that's what's happening right

now. The key thing there is that rollover for the Dow Jones versus silver there. So, as soon as the Dow Jones, silver and Dow Jones both going up, it's fine. But as soon as the Dow Jones starts rolling over versus silver, that's the first warning shot that hold on, we're heading into something that where silver is going to outperform, gold's going to outperform for a while like in the 1970s. The second warning shot we need and um it's the Dow just needs to fall in price in fiat and that

has not happened yet. >> So wait, let me ask you. So does the Dow need to fall it nominally? Why why does that have to occur? Yes. Well, because that needs to be the that's the true capital rotation. So, if the Dow is not falling and they're both going up and one's outperforming the other, fine. If I'm allocating, I'll be allocating maybe 50% gold or 50% uh then I'll have maybe 33% stocks or 50% stocks. But the true the true outperformance whenever silver has outperformed the stock market in a

crazy way. Its greatest gains in the shortest amount of times they happen after an instigation of a severe bare market by the Dow. You need you need the Dow to fall for the government to explode debt to to destroy your purchasing power at an accelerated rate. And that's what makes silver go up faster and stronger way more than what you're seeing here. Whatever you're seeing here, silver going to 50, silver going to 100, it's nothing. It's nothing compared to what's going to happen after

once the stock market goes in a severe bare market and then the market participants say, "Oh my goodness, lower rates to zero, you know, uh stimulus programs, programs, programs, programs, acceleration in debt. That's going to be that's going to turbocharge silver. So, we're just at step one now, Alan. Like, you should be getting shivers right now. It's like this this is nothing there. We're just we're in a pre superc phase right now. That's all that's happening.

It's just a warm-up. And it's normal that silver goes up. It's normal that gold goes up. This is just a warm up. But once the true super capital rotation event, then kaboom. I just want to show this chart because often people don't see what the miners did. Also, the miners actually also went up. So another evidence people say the miners can't go up with the stock market just like silver did. Look what the miners did from the with those rates going up, Alan. They went up heading into the

super CR. So, I think we're maybe about here. The miners are probably close to a correction. I don't know exactly where we are here, but people got to remember the miners did great heading up leading into this this super capital rotation event. And unfortunately, Trading View doesn't have it. So, I had to uh steal this off of gold charts arrest. Full credits for them to having that chart. But that's important to know there where this is exactly what's happening to the miners right now, right? They're

shooting upwards prior to a super capital rotation event here. [snorts] Again, I just super like if you now that you know that the miners, here's the as a chart from Trading View. It starts in 1968. But if I visualize what the BGMI one is showing me, I guess they were low here and then started go upwards. We're in the first move prior to the super CR. So after that huge correction possibly for the miners are super stretch uh the markets tumble everything gets dragged right but then after that the miners

have a couple of runs like multi-year runs uh and that that will be that for for them there. So it's still early right now. This is like the the pre-warmup phase. There's probably got to expect a huge correction coming up but after that we're going to have a pretty impressive run right here right after that there. And here is the Dow Jones. Just to show you, you need some type of some type of failure here. Like until we get a failure. Like like Kevin said, it's you know, we put these trend lines with

hindsight, we know that was the one. So that's the one I'm putting right now. One touch, two touch, three touch, that's a valid support. If that line fails, then it's probably game on there. >> Yeah. And and also you know when there may be some in the audience watching this thinking oh technical analysis you know lines mumbo jumbo when we put these lines on the chart um you know we have to remind ourselves that the algos are seeing these lines and the hedge fund managers who employ technical chart

analyst they're all seeing the same support lines they're all see those support lines and particularly the horizontal support lines they're there because of volume support it's where where the trading volume takes place from previous price action. You know, when price uh oscillates around a particular level for a particular period of time and then moves on, then the entire market knows that that that point that that that point on the price chart is where you're going to find support if

if the price comes back down to it. So, yeah, we're drawing these lines on the chart, but it's not just, you know, random lines coming out of our head. These are lines that the um you know the automated systems, the algorithms and um experienced traders are all trading on. So crossing those lines delivers a signal. It's a it's a it's an important signal that that we can act upon as traders and investors. So, taking a look at uh the capital rotation um that we've been talking about and perhaps shown you

the sort of super CRA chart um with the Dow, silver versus the Dow or the Dow versus Silver and the S&P, but we have to back that up um with a whole bunch of other evidence. So, all of this stuff that you see in this matrix um has actually happened at least a year ago. So what we're seeing here is that all of these things in the in the matrix are now in bare markets priced in gold. So we've got, you know, USM2 money supply, it's in a bare market versus gold. The US dollar index, which is the the

relative strength of the US dollar is uh not able to keep up with the advances in gold price. So in other words, DXY is in a bare market versus gold. And that is these these are all things that only happen during a capital rotation event. Okay, we've we've had capital rotation events in the past in the 1930s, in the 1970s, and in the early 2000s. So all of these things happening together only happens together in a capital rotation process leading to a capital rotation event. So we've got consumer prices, CPI

is in a bare market versus gold, or you can say the other way around. Gold is in a bull market versus CPI. So, gold has broken out versus consumer prices. Gold has broken out versus producer prices. Um, in other words, PPI is in a bare market priced in gold. Currency in circulation. Um, well, that's in a bare market priced in gold. So, gold is outperforming currency in circulation. Gold is outperforming the equal weighted S&P. So if you strip out the waiting of the um stocks like the MAG 7 for example, um

gold has been in a bull market versus that for a considerable period of time now. The New York composite index is in a bare market versus gold. The Dow Jones, the Welsh, the Russell, they're all in bare markets. And not just bare markets, but deep advanced bare markets priced in gold. The S&P and the NASDAQ are just as we were speaking now breaking down into bare markets first in priced in gold on their weekly and their monthly charts and with quarterly confirmations as well. We'll be able to

turn these two boxes red and say that they are now in um very convincing bare markets priced in gold. So what happens when this entire matrix turns red? Well, in 1930s, 19 early 1970s and the early 2000s, um, you know, it confirms that capital rotation event and the capital rotation process leads to that. And each time gold rises hundreds of percent and stock markets, depending on which stock market index you're looking at, uh, falls between roughly speaking 50 and 80%. In the 1970s, the S&P, for example, had a

series of drops of sort of 20some percent, 30 something% and and 40ome percent. there sort of three waves of um sort of crashes if you like in the stock markets in the 1970s whereas in the um 1929 1930 example there was one massive um crash and in the example in the early 2000s there were two drops in the S&P where the S&P fell 50% both times it sort of fell 50% recovered and then f fell 50% again so the nature of the the problems that the stock markets have varies each time, but it all has the the

same effect. And that effect is that stock markets go uh nowhere for 10 or 15 years. >> And Kevin, real real quick before you move on, just to confirm those last two boxes that you said are about to turn red and we could get quarterly confirmation. Is that the fourth quarter of 2025? You're you're waiting till the end of the calendar year to get confirmation or or which quarter? >> Yeah. Yeah, that's right. I mean the breakouts so far have occurred above declining resistance lines. So we've

broken we're seeing gold break out versus the S&P and the NASDAQ um through uh resistance lines that come downwards at an angle. Now what you really look for is a breakout above a horizontal resistance line. And when the price breaks out above a horizontal resistance and the Ichimoka cloud and long-term moving averages, then you can say particularly on a quarterly time frame uh with some confidence that um they are now in a bare market priced in gold. Even when that happens, you still need

the stock market to fall um and enter a bare market on its on its own merit. So we may be in a situation for a while as in the 1960s where all of these boxes are red but the stock market just keeps on grinding and um you know gold and silver kind of more or less keep pace with with the stock market but at times the stock market actually outperforms gold and silver and it kind of that's what happened in the 19 late 1960s until eventually you know all of these forces of the capital rotation that you know

with all these boxes having turned red um they they they eventually the dam breaks and um and and the stock markets um break down. Now that could happen this month, it could happen, you know, next month, it could happen next year, it could happen in two years time. There's no sort of urgent need to identify exactly when it's going to happen. All we know now is that we're in an environment where that is the next um most likely move. Um and gold and silver are signaling that. Um, you know, we

we've been tracking the gold cup and handle pattern for many years now. Um, since it was back down around $1,300. Um, if you if you look back through some of the early posts on my um on my feed on X, you'll you'll see me identifying the breakout just below $1,300 and this cup and handle pattern at the time um with an expectation that we would break out and move to these these new highs. So that you know gold has done that and gold has moved you know to you know a lot of people's surprise um all the way

up to beyond $4,000. I say it's $4,250 or so at the moment whilst we're speaking. So um gold broke out above its resistance line that goes back to 1980 2011 and uh earlier on in uh about a year or so ago we just reacted on that resistance line at 2750 before busting through. So silver when it breaks out above its resistance line here, I would expect quite likely that silver will significantly outperform gold um for a spell until until some sort of downside reaction. So the big question in my mind at the

moment, Alan, is [clears throat] pretty obvious really. Does silver stop here and pull back with gold coming all the way back down to retest its red line somewhere near $3,000 or does silver fairly quickly in the next several weeks break out and move to 75 80 90 even $100 and then silver comes back to back test its red line and gold by then could be north of $5,000 and comes back down to I don't know three and a half thousand without coming all the way back down here. So there's there's two fairly clear road maps and

they they hinge on the silver chart. Now, gold is often the chart that we we look to to um get the biggest clues and the biggest indicators. But at this point in time, silver is is the is the one that we need to watch because if silver signals if silver breaks through 55 56, then gold is going to go is is going to move significantly higher because silver's reacting strongly here and silver's likely to to um to continue a a spike move in a short space of time, which I would fully expect to result in a significant drop.

could be 35, 40, even 50% all the way back down to support. You know, that that's the type of thing that silver does. You only have to look back in silver's price chart history and its bull markets to see what happened here in 2008 and what happened here back in the um in the 1970s more than once in the late 1960s, which is >> Kevin, that one that one is the one that is the most important one. that drop here >> and people can't imagine that like I don't we don't know how long it's going

to be but you saw the minor it's all about like what happens how >> when prices stretch and the everything's high people they ah they're euphoria you they feel great they see their net asset value rocket but statistically you're in outlier territory so once we have the super CR and the stock market start tumbling if gold's already super stretched silver superstretch and the miners are super stretch. Guess where people are going to take their profits to to pay their their margin calls and

all that stuff, right? It's going to be a liquidity event and that's when you get these huge corrections, right? So, that's why I said it's going to be rough and tumble while like, you know, silver's like everything's ready to to break out. Usually, the breakouts happen of like a like a CR confirmations or super CR confirmation that happen with the markets rolling over and gold either holding its ground or or tumbling depending if it's it was stretched or not that moment. So everything's

practically going to go down except the US dollar on these super CR events. But now on the onset of that, the metals are going to recover faster and they're going to outperform on the way up. Yeah. And we've given we we've already explained why we feel the late 1960s is a a pretty good analog for where we are now. It doesn't mean that we have to have three years of silver falling 50% over a threeyear period. It may be much quicker than that. you know, there's there's no particular reason why it has

to be three years, but the the environment that we're in in the late 1960s in terms of Pat's already shown the 10-year yields um and in particular the relationship between gold and silver and the stock markets. So, you know, the RA that is the that's the Rosetta stone to all of this is gold versus the stock markets and silver versus the stock markets because that's where the fuel is coming from. That's where the the rotation event takes place. It's between primarily gold, you know, using gold or

silver and the S&P or the Dow Jones, whichever index you want to use. And that places us nowhere near the late 1970s. You know, at at most we're, you know, it's early 1970s, more likely the late 1960s. We're down here in relation to stock markets and um and precious metals, nowhere near up here. So the price although it looks stretched on its own chart, it's not stretched in terms of other metrics like USM2 or um or or the stock markets. The Dow Jones here uh versus gold. And this is a chart that um

you know, you've probably seen quite a bit. A lot of technical analysts uh show this chart. And it's amazing to a lot of people that um despite the recent rally in in stock markets priced in gold, they are nowhere near where they were 25 years ago. This ratio shows how the value of the Dow Jones is priced in gold. So if you use gold as your currency, stock markets peaked 25 years ago and the Dow Jones plunged priced in gold and then it recovered and now it's plunging again. Remember what we said

about support lines and corroborating evidence. Yeah, I've drawn this support line on here. You know, whoopdedoo, you know, clever me sort of thing. Um but it doesn't really, you know, it's subjective. Somebody could come along and sort of say, well, you put that on there. doesn't mean very much, but we've got the Ichimoka cloud here. We've got the 8-year moving average, and I've chosen eight years because gold has um an identifiable cyclical behavior on an 8-year basis. So, the 8-year moving

average is very important for for gold um and the gold stock market ratio. You can see that when the ratio falls below that moving average, below the cloud, you're in a bare market for the Dow Jones priced in gold. And there's a very clear breakdown here in the 19 late 1960s. You can see you can see the late 1960s. This is where we are the late 1960s leading into everything that followed in the 1970s. And what's what's happened here? We've just plunged and pierced through the weak spot in the Ichimoka

cloud there. Um, and down she goes. So, the precise path that this ratio takes remains to be seen. But the what I'm saying to you is that on the balance of probability, we're in a bearish environment for the Dow Jones versus gold. And we we have been for a while actually and and overall actually for the last 25 years. Um this is gold versus the S&P. So again, it's looking at that um relationship between precious metals and stock markets for yet more supporting evidence. And these are

capital rotation events. They happen in both directions. What I mean by that is when the chart breaks out to the upside, we get capital rotation into precious metals. That's gold outperforming the S&P. And then when the chart breaks down, you get a capital rotation away from precious metals and into the stock market, breaks to the upside again. Capital rotation into gold and pre into Yeah. gold and precious metals away from the stock market and then it breaks down the reverse. So, what's happening now?

That green circle is analogous to the previous green circles. We've got the ratio breaking above the long-term moving average through the Ichimoka cloud above the inclining resistance line. Not only that, but we came back and back tested it and have moved up. So that's a classic technical confirmation that that declining black line was not just a figment of my imagination. The ratio chart came back, tested it, tested the top of the Ichimoka cloud, and off we go. All of these weird terms that I'm using,

Ichimoku Cloud, moving averages, they're mathematical points on a chart that have significance for traders and investors. So, even if you don't understand, if even if what I'm saying sounds like gobbledegook to you, just just just take away from this the fact that if you are above the long-term moving average and the cloud, you are in a bull market environment. And if you're below it, you're in a bare market environment. So, currently we're in a bull market environment for this chart, meaning that

the chart is wanting to move up, which means that gold is wanting to be in a multi-year period, outperforming the S&P. And this is a money-making loss preventing cheat sheet because if you only have two um things that you can invest in, gold and the stock market, using this chart means you never you never lose. [laughter] You don't you don't lose because when it's going up, gold is in a bull market. uh when it's coming down um uh the stock market is in a bull market and and when it's coming

down gold into its bare market. So you can avoid 50% draw downs in gold and you can avoid 50% draw downs in the stock market just by knowing when to rotate between the stock market and gold. So if you're sitting there with your retirement fund and you you know you you don't like sitting through 50% draw downs. Well, this chart is telling us at the moment, and this is not financial advice, I've got to say because I'm not a financial adviser, but the chart is saying that on the balance of

probability over the next several many, let's say, 5 to 10 years, gold is going to outperform the S&P. >> You know what, Kevin, all financial advisors should look at that chart. I I've talked to some friends and people like we have fund managers and stuff like that on on our website and they they say oh my goodness how come I wasn't aware of this relationship between the stock market and gold you know people like they whoa what's happening here and everybody should have

their eye on that chart and I think it's getting a little bit of popularity Allan maybe I know you guys are talking about that we are and I even see sometimes our charts not our charts but you know the these gold to silver rate gold to stock ratios they're floating around more and more now people the awareness is increasing which is a good thing. >> It is. Yeah. And you know we you know although we try to you know make these charts look pretty and we try to make them sort of as easy to interpret as we

possibly can. You know there are still a lot of people out there that you know aren't really fully aware of how this relationship works. I mean you hear people talking about gold being a hedge during um you know troubled times. Well, that's fine as a fair fairy tale narrative. You know, it's kind of floating out there, but it doesn't you can't use that information unless it's on a chart in front of you. It's like someone trying to tell you how to get to um you know, a particular place that's

25 miles away and they're saying turn left here, turn right there, and then you'll see a tree and then you it's all like, "Oh, hang on a minute. Just give me a map. Just [laughter] just give me give me GPS, you And this is the GPS for investing, >> you know. Um, and it's playing out in real time um, in front of our eyes. Um I put this chart on there just to because we're talking about you know risk assets and precious metals and um often um Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies come up

here and there are a lot of narratives um associated with cryptocurrencies and for some strange reason my ex feed over the last few days has been completely flooded with the um buy bitcoin sell gold narrative. Um, but from a from if you step back and you know you look at your road map here and look at what's happened in the past, you can identify from the chart the signals that you're looking for to switch between Bitcoin and gold from a a long-term basis. I'm completely agnostic. I will invest in

Bitcoin when it's outperforming gold. I'll invest in gold when it's outperforming Bitcoin. Okay? And that's why, you know, I've been in gold for the last um year. you know, primarily in gold, not really taking much notice of of Bitcoin because, you know, gold is up whatever it is 60 65% in silver and u massively outperformed um Bitcoin and and cryptos. But look, the red circles break below the Ichimoka cloud and the moving average, that's a bare market for Bitcoin. Break below the Ichimoka cloud

and the moving average, bare market for Bitcoin. the bull bull market was over again below the moving average, below the Ichimoka cloud. And this is without me even drawing any of my lines on the chart manually. These are all um mathematically generated um lines on the chart. Again, bare market for for for Bitcoin. So, what's happening here? What signal, you know, just look at it without any bias. What signal is it giving at the moment? Now, I'm not saying that Bitcoin can't suddenly go to

200,000. Maybe it can. Maybe this can reverse. But at the very least, I want that chart to be above the moving average and above the Ichimoka cloud because every Bitcoin bull market occurs above the long-term moving average and above the Ichimoka cloud. If it's not above the Ichimoka cloud and the long-term moving average, Bitcoin is not in a bull market. It's simple as that. And so we're not going to know until we look back in a few months time whether 12 whatever it was 125,000 was the the

top for for Bitcoin. But this chart is telling us at the moment that it might be. And it's also telling us that gold is outperforming Bitcoin. So when that situation changes great we'll rotate back to Bitcoin. But we don't need to you don't need to frontr run that. you know, you can you can get all these stories in your head and all these narratives and stuff you sort of read on social media, but um you know, that doesn't mean anything until it moves the price chart. I keep saying this to

people and when people talk about fundamentals and narratives, um the the fundamentals are the chart and I can't emphasize this. Me been on crusade about this over and over again. The fundamentals are the price chart. What do you think the price of gold is? It's it's all of the fundamentals that everybody knows and all the fundamentals that nearly all of us don't know except the big market movers. So everything that's known about the gold market is priced into gold and not only priced into gold but it's

priced into gold on a forward-looking basis. >> Yes. Yes. Yes. That's that's why I had a conversation with somebody on X and the the miners are going up in price. Let's say gold's going up in price and and this bullish news is coming up. this bullish news is coming up and they're saying all they're labeling all these bullish news but in my head I'm saying how much of this is all priced in. It's like you know you know sell the news like that's a thing that's a real thing

right sell the news by the rumor. Well if you know about it and you're hearing about it don't don't you think the person that created that that news or like hasn't placed his chips a while back you know so the best thing to stay safe guys and not be a victim to this uh headline grabbing stuff just follow the price chart. Who cares about the news when you just all you need is am I outperforming the Dow Jones? Check. Is am I going up in price and fiat? Check. Goodness. >> Yeah,

>> those two questions make your life so so much simpler. >> And and just to finish, I think this is the last the last chart there. Just to finish on another chart that again might surprise a lot of people, but we we've been talking about gold versus the stock market and silver versus the stock market. every single sector of the S&P. And there are 11 sectors in the S&P. You know, you've got financials in there. You've got um materials and you've got um consumer staples and all these

different sectors. 10 of the 11 sectors were in a bare market priced in gold. And the only one that wasn't really was tech. And it's XL. XLK is the tech sector. XLK. Um that's the ticker for the S&P um tech uh sector and this is XLK priced in gold. So what were we saying before? You know if you're unbiased [clears throat] about it the bull market occurs above the Ichimoka cloud above the long-term moving average and that's tech in a bull market versus gold. It is massively

outperforming gold. What's just happened? We've broken below rising support line. Okay, once again, you know, I put that line on the chart, but forget about that if you want to. We're below the uh long-term moving average. We've got whether you put the three or the four year moving average on here, doesn't matter. We're below it. And we're now below the Ichimoka cloud. And it also looks very much like a one, two, three topping pattern, which is, you know, technical analysts will will

probably recognize. Now, even if this goes back to the red line all the way up here, that's a lower high than that one there. And not only that, but of course, tech um peaked versus gold 25 years ago. And you know that people will say I'm cherry-picking the date and I can see that in the comments now. Oh, is is cherrypicking the year 2000 as a starting point? I get that. Yes. But it's also true to say that in the last 25 years, since that high point, tech has never regained its value versus

gold. Don't you think that after a quarter of a century, tech should have reached the high point priced in gold that it was at 25 years ago given everything that's gone on with AI and everything that's gone on with with tech stocks. The very fact that we are a long way from we're at least 50% below probably more like 60 or so percent below the highs that we were at in the year 2000. So that just stop and think for a moment moment gold is winning here versus technology from the peak 25 years ago and we are breaking it

actually says on the label there 70% I should read my own label shouldn't I 70 down 70% versus gold and not only that but it's breaking down into a new bare market. So, you know, I I'll I'll end it there because this is what it takes us back to the very start where we began with a super CRA. This all tells us that this is a capital rotation event that's we're building towards. This is the capital rotation process that we're showing you. The capital rotation event is what we're we're looking forwards to.

>> Kev, this this what what you just told about that it wasn't able to regain. That is the setup to the super CRA. That is the setup. So that roll over in 2000 that that was just the the first wave then the recovery for the stock market versus gold. But because it wasn't able to do a new high now you have this crazy longer term uh breakout line that's morphing into existence to create this even bigger pattern in favor of precious metals. Why stock markets, you know, they they dwindle. We're not saying

stock markets are going to go down forever. Stock markets they they'll always go up but there's periods for about a decade or so, 15 years where they just underperform. they go sideways while you you could be making huge gains in silver, gold, whatever. Choose your poison there. And just that tech chart price and gold, Kevin, I don't want to poke the bear at Bitcoin, but it does look a little bit like uh Bitcoin pricing gold. >> Well, this is this is the other thing that's worth just touching on is that,

you know, we know Bitcoin is strongly correlated to the stock market and more particularly tech stocks. So, as gold moves further into its bull era, of course, it's going to be interesting to see if Bitcoin can assume some kind of a role alongside gold or whether it simply continues to be affected by the CRA in the same way that stocks are going to be. So, you know, when when the stock market does roll over, we would expect that Bitcoin would do the same. Uh but on the recovery, can Bitcoin at some

point outperform gold on the recovery? And we're completely, as technical analysts, of course, we're completely unbiased one way or the other, the chart will tell us because if that ratio chart moves above the Ichimoka cloud, above the longerterm moving averages, then we'll know that Bitcoin is capable of outperforming gold during a capital rotation where gold is is is benefiting. >> Yeah. I wanted to ask you guys, so as as you're looking at all these charts and ratios and so forth and allocating your

own portfolios, what kind of a time horizon are you looking at? Is it like a year? Is it 10 years and so forth? Um, and are you actively selling out of your older positions and and sort of rotating your own capital frequently, or is it more of a long-term buy and hold strategy? >> Well, we have it. It's funny you say that because on our website there just to answer that question we created a something called a dynamic portfolio manager. So essentially it's like if you want to answer that question let's say

someone is on the sideline and says whatever I have 100k what should I allocate into and of course it's like the classic it's either stocks or the spx gold bonds or cash right and right now it's like for the past three four months and that's when we started this the the DPM the dynamic profile manager we've been 50 it's okay Kevin I could tell people like our bigger we're 50% gold I think uh 33% % stocks, 16% uh cash, and zero bonds. That doesn't make sense. Does that add up to 100? There's

missing something. >> It's Yeah, >> roughly speaking. And when And when he says when he says gold, that then breaks down into physical gold, physical silver, and gold and silver miners, and in fact, things like uranium miners. So, we drill down into >> uh a lot more detail about what that gold allocation um consists of. >> Okay. So let's recap here. One of the main things that I took away from this which sort of blew my mind is that if we think about where we are, you know,

analogous to history, I would have guessed it was somewhere in the 1970s. You know, you you could pick the year, but you guys showed several charts that make the very compelling case that we're not even in the 1970s yet. We're like maybe 1967 or 1968. So there's still a huge bull market to go in precious metals relative to stocks. So that was a huge takeaway for me. uh what other main takeaways would you want to emphasize and leave our audience with? >> So this this is like a terminology that

maybe you could try to propagate. So bull market is when you go up in price in fiat, but then when you're you're going up in fiat and you're outperforming another major asset class, you could call it a bull era. So bull era is like you're you're in a bull market where you're supercharged. You outperform everything. The dips should be bought. The dips, you know, it's shallower. you're on the way down you'll underperform less you'll outperform on the way back up so you know that's stuff

you know dreams are made of they don't happen every year like you saw that those Kevin's cup and handles on gold on silver those are 50-year patterns 45 year patterns just breaking out silver will get its yearly defined close out of its cup and handle this year unless it goes back down below 31 by the end of the year like who like some crazy thing happens could you imagine that you're living today in 2025 on the greatest chart pattern of all time in length breaking out this year. That is crazy,

Alan. Crazy, right? So that's just the setup because because we know from the 1940s to 1950s,60s7s, silver was going up alongside the stock market. So it's like my goodness, as long as those yields keep going up and as long as they destroy your purchasing power more and more, it's going to skew the the fund manager money. is going to force their hand and they'll have to favor the uh the non-growth and go more into the value stuff, right? The materials, gold, silver, oil, even oil.

Oil is a great play coming up. It's not ready yet, but my goodness, oil, I overlay the silver and oil chart. It's practically the same chart for 200 years, and oil right now is lagging. That's probably the next greatest opportunity there. >> Yeah, oil and energy stocks look um very uh very exciting in the in the months and years ahead. Also just uh you know when we talk about the late 1960s just um you know have a little bit of sort of sort of realistic uh view on that because um there are elements of 2025

that clearly aren't the same as the late 1960s and those capital rotation events that happened in the 1930s, the 19 early 1970s and the early 2000s. I think there's elements of all of those that we're going to see in this particular event. I mean the element from the 2000s of course the.com bust well that relates fairly directly I think to perhaps the crypto market and certainly a AI um as well. So that that is perhaps one element from the 2000s and the 1970s. Um well we had um energy crisis and uh we

had a lot of um social unrest and we had a lot of um sort of strikes and industrial unrest. Um and in the 1930s there was a lot of political uh unrest particularly across uh Europe of course and we saw um a lot of protectionism across the European continent and more extreme um polarization of politics and uh I'm not about to get into a political discussion here but I don't think you need to be um a genius to work out that right across the world at the moment um people are screaming at each other just

because they don't happen to support the same political uh views which is a very sad state of affairs. Um, so there are elements from all of those things um that are going to feed into this and no doubt make it unique. And that golden silver cup and handle, I don't know, it's it's telling us something, isn't it? >> Yeah, it's powerful. Amazing. Well, gentlemen, thank you so much for being here. If our viewers want to follow your work, it's northstarbadcharts.com.

And you mentioned you have a dynamic portfolio manager there. If they go to your website, what other kinds of things are they going to see? Is a bunch of charting tools? What other kind of stuff is there? >> Goodness, we we have Allan, we built the website over the years there has practically like dynamic trading, the door pro manager like you know our big picture stuff. It has practically anything. >> One thing one thing I would say is that if you if you're not really um technically minded, we have something

called a knowledge base on there, don't we Pat? which will take people step by step through all of this and they can we we like to teach people and we we like you know step by step for people to understand what it is that we're that we're saying but we do make it as you know easy to understand as as we possibly can. Um, so that knowledge base is there for for our members to to to to look at. And we do quite a lot of podcasts as well, a weekly market roundup podcast which covers over a

hundred separate instruments including gold and silver and commodities and stock markets and cryptocurrencies and all of the rest of it. So we do an update at the uh at the end of every week as well. So um there's there's something for everybody there, I would say. >> Excellent. Well, thank you again so much for being here. Looking forward to speaking with you again. >> It was a pleasure, Alan. Thanks very much for having us. >> Yeah, thanks Alan.