hey everyone welcome to bald guy money let's get straight into it in this video back in February of this year I told you all how much gold and silver I think you will need Based on data collected from these markets to buy a decent property when the market finally turns and we see real estate prices tank on the back of a weakening economy followed by a flight to safety so meaning money moving to Gold and Silver and as a reminder I said 25 o of gold and 1,000 o of silver should do the trick and that thesis was
built upon historical data that suggests Metals should do about a 4X or quadruple in price relative to real estate once the crash happens and I will show that data with some updates shortly but what I want to point out to you all is that since I made that video the value based on spot price of what I was saying you need to do this with has gone up by about 9% whilst the median sales price of houses sold in the United States which I was basing on Q4 2022 data has declined by 10% at the same time average home prices
in the UK as you can see here are also in Decline with the Canadian new house price index flatlining and end entering a slight a very slight decline so considering all of this data and to keep you up to dat on the latest leading indicators that are telling us when it may make sense to use metals to purchase real estate I want to take you all through the latest developments in real estate and precious metals that we can use to predict the trajectory of pricing as well as reveal the updated Metals
versus Real Estate tool I have put together which shows where we stand in the cycle today versus where we were in the past and I will be uploading the file after this video to the patreon for patreon members if you want to access it now just before we get into it if you're in the United States and you're looking to buy some golden silver from a reputable trusted dealer please check out channel partner pinck who still have silver rounds for under $27 a piece if you order more than 20 so not a bad deal
if you ask me I'll leave the link to this offer in the video description and that's pin beck.com and I also want to say that if you were interested in what I was saying about gold and silver IRAs in last week's viewer question portion of the video the pinck guys have told me personally that they will take your calls at the number on the screen to take you through all the details that apply to your situation free of charge just let them know when you call them that you came from the bald guy Money
Channel now coming back to the topic of metals versus Real Estate this is an important topic and I've always said on this channel that I would only consider converting Metals into real estate at some point because I'm interested and the whole channel is about owning real hard assets not holding on to pieces of paper and just before I reveal the price indicators of where real estate metals are headed I just want to remind you all of why I approach things this way because if we are at crisis level
spending today without a crisis and I mentioned this in last week's video I ask you all what is going to happen when the current downturn actually sets in and can no longer be masked by inflationary fiscal stimulus well I'll tell you what the answer to that is it's not going to be good and considering the high likelihood of even more fiscal stimulus paired with the potential for the Federal Reserve to lower rates again and inject more money into the economy whether that's to support failing Banks
or a failing federal government the effect will be the same and is clearly defined by the cantelon effect and the cantelon effect says those who are closest to the money printer receiving new money first benefit the most from inflation as they can convert that new money into assets at pre-inflation prices and you can see how that works in this image on the screen right now just read through those points it should be very clear to you and for that reason I try to stay ahead of the curve and always buy the right assets at the right
time knowing that I have to be prepared to hold for longer periods of time to benefit from the protection assets provide and that I have to be ready to pounce when opportunities arise to build my position in one asset class at the expense of another in this case building up a real estate position at the expense of metals and the first pieces of evidence that I have to offer up that we are on our way slowly but surely to this inflection point where metals are going to appreciate significantly versus Real
Estate and I have to admit the real estate market has held up pretty well thanks to unprecedented levels of non-crisis government spending but the market is starting to show some cracks starting with the fact that active listings so houses for sale also called housing inventory are on the rise despite interest rates being at their highest levels since the early 2000s now those interest rate hikes were keeping inventories low due to lack of interest in selling and taking on a new loan at a higher rate and there are a lot of
guesses as to why inventories are rising some people are calling it a seasonal correction but in my experience this usually happens the seasonal correction after the holiday season not going into it people are not so interested usually especially in the United States in selling their house going into Thanksgiving or Christmas so I took a Peak at the S&P us mortgage back Securities index which I think is a good indication of where the market expects the housing market to go as well as the strength of homeowners this index
famously tanked leading into the 2008 financial crisis and was mentioned in the movie The Big Short and what you can clearly see is downward movement in the index starting from 2022 reaching new lows on the 5-year chart in 2023 suggesting that higher rates are creating expectations amongst smart money investors that the economy is slowing down the housing market will weaken and it also points to the possibility that they expect defaults to rise and although we haven't seen that in the official numbers yet we are
seeing unemployment on On The Rise which we know that Rising unemployment has an inverse correlation with the price of real estate meaning that as unemployment Rises real estate prices go down as a result of a correction in affordability access to credit and an increase in housing Supply or housing inventory which I already showed you is on the rise which is sometimes fueled when unemployment is going up by increasing mortgage default rates so clearly the real estate market is not as healthy or
robust as many analysts might have you believe the trail of crumbs indicates that softness in the form of declining prices or stagnation from here is likely on the way and in Stark opposition to that there are so many catalysts poised to push metal prices up higher from here starting with the economic correction I keep talking about forcing a strong pivot by central banks around the world thus us reintroducing an easy money environment under which metals always Thrive and gain strength relative to
other asset prices especially in the early days of the pivot the second point on the list is the inevitable correction in the US dollar Index which will boost Metals Beyond certain price points ones I mentioned in last week's video resulting in minimum moves up in the prices of gold and silver as shown here on the screen which will trigger the masses to enter both gold and silver pushing prices up even higher as fomo or fear of missing out sets in and those factors are compounded by the continuing growth in
demand for Gold by central banks which in 2023 demand is now projected to surpass 2022 record level and when it comes to Silver as I've demonstrated many times on this channel Chanel increasing industrial demand for silver is going to continue to pinch supplies until the rubber meets the road driving silver prices higher up with the price of gold and if you take a look at the data here on the screen covering the period from 1997 to 2014 you can see I've calculated when the best moments to
buy medals were and when the best moments to convert Metals into real estate were and by the way the full version of this tool with data from 1987 to today is available on my patreon for patreon members so check it out if you want to have this tool moving forward but as it stands today we are in a neutral zone but if we compare today versus where we were in 2022 we are inching closer to the moment where medals will make large gains against Real Estate and when that happens it might be a good time as I
said at the start of the video to sell some metals off or borrow against them if you don't want to trigger capital gains taxes to purchase some real estate and for me that will likely be a cash flow generating rental property when I decide to part with some medals and convert it into real estate and I think that's a really good segue into my viewer question for this video and it's not so much a question as it is a comment but I think it's important to address reality because I got a comment
a couple weeks ago from a viewer Billy Bob whoa claims rental properties are parasitical and another person chimed in Dr Victor Frankenstein to agree and said that I am taking advantage now this response isn't meant to criticize these two viewers I am grateful they brought this up because I understand very well where they're coming from and this is such a great moment considering the fact that Argentina has just elected a new president who favors the free market to explain a bit about the law of
unintended consequences and how these types of comments can be more harmful than helpful now in places where people make rules like you are not allowed to own rental properties the intentions are always good they want to eliminate the ability of the wealthy to become wealthier by charging rents for houses that are unaffordable because the wealthy drove up the prices in the first place and I get that but just as in this image here that has a lot of unintended consequences starting with the fact that
by making such a law you are imposing a government mandate one in which you mandate that all citizens own their home or place of residence now you might be thinking what's wrong with that but for college students who live temporarily near campus during the year or contract workers like me who are only in a place for a certain period of time or elderly people who want to cash out the value of their home and live comfortably in a rental you take away their ability to do that you take away their legal ability
to rent so instead of helping people afford their home you have actually limited the freedom for many people who willingly choose to rent and for full disclosure I rent the house I live in right now even though I own rental properties I know it might sound crazy but I currently live in a place where I don't want to own and not having the ability to rent would be absolutely horrible for me now coming back to the law of unintended consequences such a law would divert Capital away from Real Estate which means less Supply comes on
the market because I mean if a lot of money coming into the real estate market is from people who are funding projects to have them later as rental properties it means a lot of projects simply won't get funded which again means the supply is going to be lower than where it would be if such a law didn't exist and that would one way or another result in higher prices for buyers and by the way if you can't rent and have nobody to live with does that mean you're forced to be homeless that's a question I
always wanted to ask somebody who thinks renting should be illegal and for these very reasons these unintended consequences Ronald Reagan said the nine most terrifying words in the English language are I'm from the government and I'm here to help and it's why I think it's a contradiction to be a freedom lover a gold and silver stacker a person who is concerned about the path big government is taking us down afraid of cbdcs and then tell someone they are taking advantage of people by being a
landlord because those two ideas simply don't square up with each other because at the end of the day it's the central banks and countless government interventions that have resulted in the increasing wealth Gap we're seeing today this channel is here to help you navigate that that environment an environment within which the wealth Gap is increasing because of things like the cantelon effect that I described earlier on in the video this channel is not to encourage people to create a world where
you put other people at a disadvantage absolutely not and as I end this video I'm going to end it as I always do first of all I want to thank you all for watching please remember to hit the like And subscribe for more content if you like what I'm talking about in this video but I also want to encourage you all to take care of yourselves and take care of the people around you that's very important especially as we're heading in to the holiday season I'm wishing you all a fantastic day ahead
and I'll see you in the next one goodbye
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