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 The silver institute is forecasting that investors will buy 200 I think it's 200 million ounces of silver in in investment gold this year. When you divide that number out by the you know the population of the planet you'll find that one person in 45 or something like that can have 1 ounce. Now I know half the world probably can't afford anything in silver but even so if you think about it if you have 1 ounce of silver alone you're already ahead of the other 46 who won't be able to have it because there

is there just isn't enough if that 200 million ounces figure that estimate going into investment demand is correct. If that if that figure it turns out to be 400 million ounces cuz actually there's more than one person of 47 wants to buy an ounce or that one in 47 persons wants to buy 2 ounces. Well, where's it going to come from? The mind output is relatively illic. So the only place that extra silver can come from is recycled silver. And the only way you get recycled silver is to have a higher

price than yesterday. >> There are moments in every commodity cycle when the math simply stops adding up. And right now, silver is standing exactly on that fault line. Clive Thompson begins with a statistic that most analysts gloss over. Global investment demand is expected to absorb nearly 200 million ounces of silver this year. Break that down across the world's population, and you hit a stunning conclusion. Only one out of roughly 45 people could even obtain a single ounce. And that assumes demand doesn't rise

from here. In reality, demand is accelerating and half the planet cannot afford to buy silver at all. This imbalance reveals something bigger. Silver is no longer just a commodity. It's becoming a scarcity event. If that 200 million ounce demand projection jumps to 400 million, something entirely possible. As investors in Asia, the Middle East, and the West increase their allocations, the supply gap becomes a full-blown crisis. Mine supply cannot scale quickly enough. Grades are declining, permitting delays are

increasing, and capital investment in new production has been weak for more than a decade. That leaves only one pressure valve, recycled silver. And recycling only rises for one reason. When the price tomorrow is higher than the price today, [music] silver may appear cheap on the surface, but structurally it is beginning to behave like an asset caught in a tightening supply squeeze. Meanwhile, gold is signaling a far deeper shift happening at the sovereign level. Central banks have become the most

aggressive buyers in the world with major institutions accumulating physical gold quietly and consistently. Some nations, especially China, are doing it without reporting anything publicly. China produces 20% of the world's gold. Yet, its official reserves have mysteriously remained flat since 2014, even as its trade surplus has climbed year after year. That divergence suggests one thing. China is accumulating gold off the books. And when you factor in the heavy flow of 400 ounce good delivery bars moving from

Switzerland and the UK straight into Chinese vaults, the picture becomes undeniable. The world's largest players are preparing for a monetary reset using physical gold, not US dollars. Retail investors in the West, however, remain almost entirely absent. ETF holdings continue to fall even as gold reaches new all-time highs. Retail is selling while central banks and sovereign wealth funds are buying at record levels. Every major gold bull market in history ended only after retail investors rushed in on

mass. And today we are nowhere close to that moment. This phase belongs to the quiet money. The disciplined capital positioning itself early long before the mainstream pays attention. And that leads directly into the next part of Clive's analysis. The role of central banks, the mysterious buyers supporting gold at record highs, and the structural lag in the global financial system that explains why the real move in gold hasn't even begun. Before we continue, remember to subscribe, leave a like, and

turn on notifications. These deep dive analyses are built for viewers who want real data, not recycled headlines. Your support helps make videos like this possible. >> We've seen a lot more central buy bank buying in the last few years and many of the indicators are that some central banks are buying gold and not telling anybody about it. They're they're doing it covertly. The biggest candidate for that is China where they have about they they produce about 20% of the world's

gold from their own mines. Uh there's also um uh and I don't have concrete evidence of this, but there's a lot of people who seem to have done the research and got the evidence. There's also large quantities of 400 ounce bars being exported from Switzerland and the UK to China. And these are not the sort of bars which are used at the Shanghai Stock Exchange, which uses 1 oz, 3 oz, 100 oz bars. uh and then and they're not the sort of bars which are used in the jewelry industry. So these are the sort

of bars which are used by central banks for storage. So there's the internal production of coming from the China's own gold mines per perhaps 20% of it going into their reserves, secret reserves. Uh we've potentially got a lot of bars moving to China which we don't know where they're going but they're the type of bars which would be held by central banks. And then the last thing we've got is since 2014, China's official reserves, which is basically treasury bonds and gold and

special drawing rights, the official reserves have plateaued. Now, that's odd when China's trade surpluses have ever since continued to climb every year. Their trade surplus has been uh climb their current account surplus been climbing. So for decades before that as these as this trade surplus was climbing the reserves would go up. It wasn't a one for one match but you know more surplus trade means more money in the central bank. Suddenly it seems to have plateaued since 2014 which kind of

implies they're still potentially building up the reserves but they're not reporting it. So they're why are they not reporting it? Because perhaps it would hack off the Americans to know they're buying gold. So they are buying a little bit gold. That's officially reported numbers, but the numbers that they're buying, whilst they're pushing up gold as a percentage of their reserves in the on the balance sheet, it's still looking like it's relatively small, but reality it's probably quite

big. And I expect there's central banks around the world, which are also um building up reserves. I I saw an article saying that um there's less central banks now reporting their gold purchases than ever before. Uh so implication is there's probably a lot of buying and that's probably why the gold price has reached an all-time high uh of 4,000. Well, the high was a bit higher than that, 4,400, but let's call it 4,000 for simplicity. And simply speaking, most central banks are insensitive to the

price. They don't care. They're they're not buying with a plan to sell tomorrow to make a profit. They're buying because they want a plan B which does not involve the dollar. Would you agree with the statement that in general masses in the west are still not that involved with this? >> Until very recently, perhaps for just a brief week or two during gold's peak, there were small periods of net inflows into Western gold ETFs. But overall, the bigger trend is unmistakable.

The total tonnage of gold held by exchange traded funds in the west has been steadily declining. As gold prices climbed, retail investors weren't buying. They were selling, moving their money out of gold and back into tech stocks. Yet despite that selling pressure, the price of gold kept rising. That tells us something critical. Retail investors are not the ones driving this market. Someone else is. Who is absorbing all this gold while retail exits? Do like, share, comment, subscribe and don't forget to hit the

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