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 [Music] I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and here today with me is Mario Inko. He runs the Manco 64 YouTube channel. Really good to be speaking with you. Thanks so much for being here. You're welcome and it's nice to be speaking with a new face. Uh yeah. Yes, me as well. And I think that you'll probably be familiar to many people in our audience, but I thought since it's our first time talking. If you could start with a little bit of background on yourself and the work you do, that would

be great. Yeah. I mean, I'll go back uh way back when I was a kid, a child. I grew up in in Brazil. And uh the reason I say that is because we had a lot of inflation and currencies. So it it's something that uh stayed with me and something that interested me and it's probably one of the reasons uh I talk about what I what I do. Apart from that professionally I I worked uh in finance uh yeah for over 20 years. I started out in Switzerland at a small private bank and uh and then I moved to London and I

was a futures and options broker in the government bond market. uh and uh I got involved in gold uh indivi privately in 2002 and uh bought some some coins and started looking into things digging uh down the rabbit hole and I found out a lot that is not taught at university a university is about gold and the monetary system and history and uh 10 years ago I started my channel trying to inform the public about the monetary system, about gold, about economics and uh my focus I try to uh have a Austrian

school of economics slant uh unlike the Keynesian um the the Keynesian uh how can I say narrative that we hear so much. Well, really good to get that background on you. I think it it helps to contextualize the discussion that we're going to have. And of course, I've got a lot of questions for you today on gold and silver as well. We'll start over with gold. And one question I like to start with when I talk to people is just where would you place gold in the cycle right now? Yeah, I think um long-term we've been in

a bull market since 0102, but then we had that uh correction and big consolidation for like uh 13 years from uh 2011 till actually beginning of last year when we broke out. So uh yeah, longterm it's been 11 years, but I I think this is a new leg now. So, we're still like in the first few innings, uh, if you want to use baseball terminology, maybe the third inning. And I think we, uh, yeah, we're only just beginning. Um, yes, we're going to see a lot of ups and downs, uh, and noise in the short term,

but, uh, longer term, I think, uh, one needs to just, uh, hold on hold on to to it and, uh, go for the ride. Absolutely. Absolutely. So, still early for gold. We've got some time to go. I I like the baseball analogies. I think they always help to put it into context. So, when you're looking at gold, there's so much going on. What are the key drivers? Or maybe we start with the the top driver that you're looking at when it comes to the gold price right now. Yeah, I think it's been the uh central

bank buying uh since 2022. The accelerated uh increase in net buying. Uh I think it's been like over a thousand tons net buying from countries in the um what's called the global south or bricks whatever you want to call it. Even countries like Poland have been buying a lot of gold. So I think it's all central bank based and the reasons for it are um a few one one of them is the fact that um the west and specifically the US has been uh punishing countries via sanctions for a while now and also uh what happened um

in 2022 visav Ukraine and Russia that woke a lot of uh countries up and they realized that their fiat reserve reserves are not safe. So, one alternative is uh to have physical gold uh in your vault. And I think that's one of the reasons why. And I think the smart money the uh they're starting to realize that there's a problem and they're starting to buy gold. Even though I saw the other day uh a bar chart of family office um holdings and they still only hold like 2% of their assets in gold. So it's still early

days. So yeah, I think it's the um central bank buying and also the Basel 3 um rules regarding gold as a high high liquid uh high quality liquid asset and uh um the u tier one category and uh I think China uh as well they've been huge buyers. They've been encouraging the public to buy gold. They also told uh insurance companies now since February that they can put up to 1% of their assets into gold. And uh the Chinese uh they buy gold, they buy real physical gold. They don't do the futures. So I I

think that's also um hurting the paper game on COMX and LBMA. And it's one of the reasons why I think the gold prices accelerated and also the debt situation in the US we've seen the big beautiful budget uh uh according to Elon Musk now is disgusting and I agree with him. So, uh, yeah, I just saw a meme that said, uh, how do you solve the problem of too much debt? And then there's Trump, uh, more debt, you know. So, I I don't think there, yeah, there is a solution uh short of uh triggering an economic uh

collapse, a great depression to right off the debt. Uh, and um I don't see politicians doing that in the US nor in Europe. So, uh, we're going to continue to see, um, gold go higher. Okay. I think there's a lot of key points there that we'll we'll return to and go into a little bit deeper. One point that we mentioned before we turn the camera on that we want to talk about today is the bond market. And I think that's really been drawn into focus by the big beautiful bill. So, a lot of a lot of

turmoil gone on there and people have a lot of questions. What is the bond market telling us about this? What what do you what would you pull out for investors to know about? Yeah, I'd go back to September last year when the I think it was September 18th, the Fed cut rates for the first time in a while. And it was a surprise surprisingly uh big cut, 50 basis points. People were expecting 25. And ever since then, the uh 10-year yield has risen from 3.6 to around four 4.4 4 and a half right now.

And uh I I saw that President Trump today uh again said that JPOW is too late because we had some weak uh labor uh market numbers ADP. So he's still pushing for uh rate cuts. And I think what's what that's going to do it it yeah it might bring uh short-term rates lower like in the short end of the yield curve but on the longer end it's uh it's not really going to help just like it hasn't helped since September and uh of course with the um debt ceiling situation also uh being a problem uh

it's expected that like 7 trillion is going to come um to to roll over after the the the debt debt ceiling is like suspended or if it's lifted. I think Trump is looking for 5 trillion more and uh yeah, it's going to be a problem financing the debt and foreigners, especially China uh with with uh the tariff war, they're going to be less likely to want to help out in terms of um buying the debt. So the only way to attract buyers is going to be through higher offering higher higher rates. So that's

not going to be good. And that's so that's how I see it. Yeah, definitely. I think factors lining up that show us it's it's not going to be good. From a broad perspective, what's your outlook for the US economy? How do you see this playing out? Yeah, I mean uh back in 2022 we we had two quarters of negative growth, but they they said it was in recession. So, um it's always difficult to say, oh, we're going to have a recession because they can change the rules. But I think

uh it can only hurt if uh bond yields continue to rise because it affects the whole the whole economic uh picture. you get higher mortgage rates, higher credit card rates, higher higher rates for financing um corporations, uh private equity, they they're in trouble. That's another uh like big um big problem. I think they they're highly leveraged and very illquid and uh I think a lot of people uh have uh assumed that rates were going to go back down like they they have been really low since the

early 80s. But uh my premise for the last few years is that bull market and bonds and uh low rates that's finished. Unless, of course, the the Fed really comes out with the bazooka and prints uh trillions upon trillions to buy the bond market. But then, you know, the dollar is going to be like confetti. It's not going to be buying much. And uh and it's not just a dollar because all the other uh major countries will follow. And that's why I continue to think that gold is still in the third inning. Yes, it

definitely it all comes back to gold. And so you'd mentioned the the strong interest in gold in China and we'll come back to China, but I just want to mention so we've got all of these circumstances playing out in the US in the Western world. At what point do you think Western interest starts to wake up more to gold? Yeah, and that's a good a good question because it seems like the West is just like uh throwing away its gold. uh towards the east and it's a shame. Um yeah, I I don't know. I mean, maybe uh

when things get really bad, uh but um I think uh they're going to try to ignore gold as long as they can because gold is the anti- debt and the system we have where governments can uh do whatever they want like they've been doing for decades is really tough to do under uh the discipline of gold. It was Alan Greenspan who said in his essay golden economic freedom that uh statists uh hate gold because it puts them in a straight jacket. So um maybe maybe Trump might bring back some kind of vestage of gold.

That's possible. But then again he he's not seen as a very popular guy in in the rest of the West. So yeah, here in the UK we we've only got 300 tons. Uh Gordon Brown sold half of it uh about a quarter century ago. I guess in Canada where you are, you've got zero gold reserves. I I think he used to have like over a,000 tons in the '60s. So yeah, um maybe it will take um maybe it will take also the bricks to come out in July this year at the summit in Rio and announce some kind

of gold uh dependent uh system. Not saying it's going to be a gold standard, but something to do with gold and maybe people will start waking up. Uh but um yeah, I wouldn't hold my breath. Yeah. Yeah, fair enough. And on the note of the bricks, I know people look forward each year with excitement toward the meeting to see what are the good to announce. Is it going to have an impact on gold? Anything further you would say that you might be looking for at this year's meeting? Yeah, I mean I I don't have um like

access to to what they're thinking, but I I saw that Donald Trump Jr. uh with a a gold uh company that he he works with. They're talking about some kind of a real reset. uh it's only speculation but uh I I think uh it will become important uh part of the bricks uh payment system gold because when you substitute the dollar as the major reserve asset um no other currency will will do as a reserve asset currency because it doesn't have the credibility that the dollar used to have. I mean the

dollar is still uh running on fumes so to speak because it used to be as good as gold supposedly until 71. So the only uh reserve asset that bricks and other countries will trust is gold. So that's why people speculate always about bricks and uh but I think the other important thing to to uh keep an eye out uh in the brick summit is how many more nations uh asked to join and I think that's very significant. Saudi Arabia still seems to be sitting on the fence because I don't think they want to upset the US, but

they're kind of uh one foot in bricks and one foot still in the old petro dollar system. Okay. Yeah. Well, we'll we'll keep an eye on what happens at that bricks meeting. I totally understand. Of course, you can't know the the inner workings of what's going on there. You had also mentioned toward the beginning of the conversation Basel 3 and I know that people in the gold sector I know that they know it's important but they might not know all the details and and new elements that

might be coming up. So anything you would explain there that you think we should know? Yeah. uh the EU uh banking sector they adopted uh Basel 3 uh Visa v Gold in 2023 already beginning of 2023 uh the UK and the US haven't and the US uh is supposedly uh that's the thing about Baso 3 it's very uh it's not very clear and and you've had the LBMA come out and say a few things that u basically negate uh the whole u the whole story but I I think yeah the US banking sector they're

looking to to adopt uh Baso3 and uh gold as a as a tier one asset and all that means is that allocated physical gold is going to be like risk-free and uh unallocated won't won't be so um banks will prefer to have physical gold and I was listening to another commentator uh the other day and he said that the reason um the BIS who does the Baso 3 uh regulations uh they uh saw that during CO there's a major major trouble with the bullion banks LBMA and COMX because it was highly leveraged unallocated and the

market almost collapsed the the gold market not in price but the the whole system and uh that's why they they want to impose uh the Basel 3 rules for banks uh that um yeah if you want to uh trade gold and if you want it to be spot it has to be allocated and tier one asset and you have to follow the Baso3 rules. So it looks like the US banking sector is going to adopt it. Maybe that's why there's been so much physical gold flowing into the US like from late last year to earlier this year. Uh as for the

UK banks, I'm not sure if they they're going to adopt it. I think the LBMA is still trying to Yeah, they're not happy about it because the LBMA uh market, the bullion market in London is very um paper dependent and this is going to spoil their um uh spoil their their their game where they make a small profit from hedging physical versus paper. Yeah. So that's that's how I see it. Really interesting. And also interesting that you bring up that flow of gold into the US. I feel like I was

hearing a lot about that at the beginning of the year and so much speculation that it's it's related to tariffs, etc., etc., but maybe it's it could be for this reason instead. Yeah, I don't think it's related to tariffs because when uh President Trump announced that liberation day, a lot of information came out and I think it uh there was bullion was excluded from all all of the uh tariffs. So, um, yeah, if if if all the gold went to the US because they're concerned for

tariffs, then we should see all the gold flowing back and the gold price collapsing, and we haven't seen that. So, that's that's why I don't think it was because of tariffs. Yeah, I think that that makes sense on on that followup. Okay, so let's take a look over at China. I said we would come back to what's happening in China. So you mentioned a couple of points. There were the insurance companies that earlier this year are now allowed to invest in gold. Other recent developments in terms

of China and gold. We've got the Shanghai futures exchange saying it will open up the futures market to overseas investors. So those are a couple of interesting things in terms of China and gold. I'm wondering what you think it means for the gold market and and China's involvement. Yeah, I I think it's highly significant and the fact that China is um applying Baso3 rules as well uh is basically disrupting the whole western paper game. And the reason why I think uh China is opening up uh the Shanghai futures

exchange to foreign uh investors uh is that um it's all part of um internationalizing uh their currency more and also u making it more uh trustworthy because if you're going to give up uh on using the dollar let's say China is doing trade with Phil the Philippines instead of using the dollars, they're going to pay the Philippines with U1. Uh the Philippines might not trust the U1 as much, so they can just do, you know, take gold. Uh or Saudi Arabia, they're also looking to I think the Shanghai

gold exchange, they're opening um vaults like uh in third countries like they're opening one in Saudi Arabia. So I think it's all part of um making their uh the yand the remimi more international. Uh yeah, that that's what it's about and I think it's highly significant and um and it's going to continue to put pressure on on Comx and LBMA because this is all physical physical gold that uh they're working with and uh yeah and it will facilitate trade and people will

trust more um the U1 if you can exchange it readily for for old and if you can keep that the vault is in your country that's even better. They're not just talking about sing uh Saudi Arabia but Singapore, Hong Kong and other places there will be a Shanghai gold exchange vaults and uh yeah so that's how I see the China situation. I think there uh gold and silver will be priced from China u in the next few years. they're going to take over. And uh yeah, unfortunately, like you said earlier, the the West

doesn't seem to care about gold, but China does. And I think the um amount of uh gold that they uh say they have officially, the PBOC, is a very small number. I think they have a lot more that we don't know. So yeah, I'm not defending China here. I'm just uh stating what's going on. Um yeah. Yeah, that was exactly the direction I think I was going to go in is I've been hearing a lot about this means that China is going to start to be more of a driver of the gold price. So,

can you talk a little bit more about what that means maybe for for the gold price and the gold market as a whole? Obviously, it's going to be quite significant. Yeah, I I mean uh I I just saw a tweet or a post on X before we we came on that JP Morgan uh made a research that uh yeah if uh there's half a percent of uh foreign US foreigners uh reserves in dollars if that flows into gold just half half a percent it would drive the gold price to 6,000 by 2029. I mean, let's say it's 5%, which is 10

times what JP Morgan's saying. Um, will it go to 60,000? I don't know, but it will be higher than that 6,000. So, that's how significant it is. Uh, yeah. And, uh, the sky sky is the limit, so to speak. Um, but, um, yeah, that that's that's the way I see it. and uh it will not just drive the the price of gold in one but in every currency out there. Yeah. So clearly massive potential implications for the gold market, the gold price. I was going to ask you about your thoughts on where the gold price

goes in 2025. I know you mentioned of course bullish, but we're going to have ups and downs and and people should be aware of that. So anything further to add on gold price in in 2025? Yeah, I mean 4,000 is not um I think is quite realistic. Yeah. So that that's yeah minimum I would say in 2025. What do you think about silver? I wanted to get your take on silver as well. So it's actually it's doing pretty well this week. Knock on wood one. Fingers crossed. But I know I know that people

are frustrated because they see the gold price so high. They look at the gold silver ratio and they feel that silver should be higher. So what are your thoughts on on the outlook for silver? I like silver too and I have silver and uh I remember back in uh 2002 when gold started rising silver only really started taking off in 2005. And if you look at the 1970s, I I think silver was like uh trading sideways from 75 to like 79 going nowhere and all of a sudden it just took off. So uh I think silver will

eventually uh take off. It could be very soon if we break that 35 level. And uh yeah, every bull market uh since the end of uh the Breton Wood system in 71 uh that we've had in uh the precious metals, silver's always outperformed, but sometimes it takes a little uh longer for it to to to do so. And um yeah, I mean, right now we're just uh below 100 in the gold silver ratio. Uh back in 2011, we we got down to like 30. I wouldn't be surprised if we retest that eventually and maybe even lower the

gold silver ratio. So I'm I'm positive on silver as well. But the key there is uh patience and also having gold. Uh because people ask me, oh should I sell my gold and buy silver? And I say no, just buy both. Um yeah, that's u the way I see it. So silver still we need some patience I think. Yeah, we we've learned to be patient with silver. When you look at silver, it's got its precious side and it's got its industrial side. So, how do you how do you weigh those when you're looking at the market?

Yeah, I mean I I look at it more as a precious metal monetary because I'm not an industrialist or anything, but yeah, it does affect it. I mean u let's say if you have a weaker economic numbers if the economy slows down you see the base metals and copper go down silver might be affected as well but uh I I think uh yeah I also think uh the commodities are are a good place to be because they're going to keep inflating the system and if you look at copper uh the last time I looked at it a day or two ago is near $5 the

high-grade copper contract. So um yeah I I I do realize that uh the uh industrial side of silver is important but also uh it's also positive because a lot of uh the new technology um it needs silver and also the other thing that uh needs silver is uh the military and unfortunately we're hearing a lot of saber rattling uh from from Europe and the US is always uh loading up on its military budget. So yeah, that's the other thing people don't seem to talk too much that silver is a really

important military metal and it's also had 5 years of deficits uh silver. And one might say, well, you can always recycle old silver, but the price is still relatively low to make it interesting to recycle. So, I think we need higher prices. Really good points. I think people do get maybe kind of stuck on that solar panel angle on the industrial side of silver and forget those other uses. So, good to go into that. And you you went in another direction that I was hoping to go in. So I think people are really looking right

now for places of safety. So we've got gold, we've got silver, but you mentioned the the broader commodities complex. So any any other areas there that you believe are safe or or maybe the whole thing as a as a whole is looking pretty good. I think the whole thing because uh for 40 years since the early 80s um the focus has been on financial assets and now with the bond market in my opinion being in the bare market uh financialization is going to reverse and uh real things real assets are going to become relatively more

important and that's why I see commodities u going forward as a a good place to be and commodities are very cyclical. Um, and we haven't really had a the last time there was a bull market in commodities was 2011. So, I think it's about time that the cycle goes up and I think it started in 2020 when we had the crash. Everything crashed uh and commodities after that rose and we've been consolidating since 2022. But uh I I think it's going to pick up again. And I'm also curious how you feel

about gold and silver stocks, mining stocks in general. I know some people really prefer to stay on the physical side. Do you include gold and silver stocks, other mining stocks as as assets that people should be looking at? Yeah. I I mean when I started uh buying gold and silver, I just bought the bullion, the coins and bars. And then the more you look into things, you you learn about the mining uh sector. So yeah, it's something that I'm involved in and uh but it's a different animal of course

to bullion and uh but it's there's a lot of opportunities there as well. Even though the last few years has been frustrating for the miners, I I've noticed that um of late uh when you've had a big correction in in bullion, uh the miners haven't really dropped that much. So I think that's encouraging. So yeah um one thing I would say is it depend make sure you know what your risk uh appetite or your risk you know how how much risk you want to take and be aware that it's uh there's

different kinds of miners as well there the the big producers which are fairly safe but still volatile and then at the other end you've got the uh junior explorers which are basically You're going on a treasure hunt there. So, it's very risky, but it can be very rewarding as well. Yes, definitely. I I think people should be aware of their risk tolerance and what they want to have in their portfolio. I was going to ask, keeping in mind everybody is different. Where where do you favor in

terms of that food chain? Do you like to be at the the top end with the big miners or toward the the riskier end? What do what do you like right now? Yeah, I I mean uh I'm focusing right now uh on silver miners and I do have a position in u in a mine in a company that uh is uh redeveloping a mind that already mined a couple of decades ago. Uh but uh yeah, I think it's good to have a mix really but right now uh I don't. But uh yeah, like have some new and the big ones and then mid tier. One

thing I tell my viewers is uh go to GDXJ Perspectus or GDX and look at what they hold and um pick some companies from there and um study them and then um decide uh where to put your money like that. Yeah. Yeah. And definitely you can use that as your blueprint and and pick out the ones that you prefer. Okay. I think that's that's really helpful. We've gone through I think a lot on the gold and silver side. I will let you go, but before I do, I'll ask if there's anything you'd leave investors with.

Maybe let people know where they can find you. Yeah, you can find me on YouTube, man. Uh I post a video uh every day. We do do a live stream on Sunday evening, London time, 8:00 p.m. Um, and uh, yes, what else would I say to people? Um, yeah, just patience is really important and uh, I think uh, holding gold is not about trading it because we are at a juncture where all the currencies are going to be debased massively. They've already been debased. I I mean, uh, when I started buying gold, it was at 220 lb

an ounce, and now it's 2,500, which is like 10 times, more than 10 times. So, yeah, don't trade your physical gold. Maybe trade your uh mining stocks. That That's what I would do. It makes a lot of sense to me, and I'll have your details in the video description so people can click through. Thank you so much for for coming on to talk about gold and silver. This was great. You're welcome and thank you for inviting me. Of course. And once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and this is Mario Ino.

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