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 this video is the ultimate guide for you to prepare for the recession that's coming up in 2022 i'm going to tell you what to do before the recession gets here what to do once it's here and how to know when it's over how to react to that point to your best advantage and there's a lot more points about what you can do than any other video i've seen by far and just to make it a complete video we're going to talk about what a recession actually is how long they last how serious they get all of this is in

this very video for many of you this is your first time here my name is peter leeds i'm the small stock specialist and you ask yourself why small stocks because they produce the greatest returns and understand that nothing we say in this video at any point is intended as personalized trading advice for you a recession can last for months sometimes years and it's a significant decline in the business activity of the overall economy it's just part of the natural cycle of any economy it's like

lungs you breathe in you breathe out you breathe in you can't just breathe in forever markets don't always go up economies don't always grow and get stronger they have to have periods where they drop back a little bit that's a recession and you've probably heard that two consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth is an actual official recession at any time an economy is in decline consider that a recessionary situation how do you know when the economy is declining when the gdp is in decline the

gross domestic product and any time an economy is not in the growth phase you're going to see things like an increase in the unemployment rate following retail sales manufacturing levels will be declining just like they're so low now i don't know how much lower they can get and even incomes start to contract so during a recession the economy is actually struggling a little bit so sometimes companies don't make as much money they start laying people off people get laid off so they

don't buy as much stuff so the companies don't have as many sales so then they have to lay off people even more meanwhile all of the overall output of the country's gross domestic product is in decline you can spot it in real gdp numbers you can spot it in the employment rate you can spot it in the industrial production levels wholesale and retail sales real income but let's talk about what causes a recession and we'll get to all the good stuff about what you need to do before the recession

gets here that's in this video and there's a lot of it i stopped counting there's so much so bear with me for a minute it'll be worth it but let's just get through the rest of this here you may ask yourself what causes a recession well here's one and this is a comment from forbes excessive debt when individuals or businesses take on too much debt the costs of servicing the debt can grow to a point where they can't pay their bills the growing debt leads to defaults delinquencies bankruptcies does

any of this sound familiar to all the stuff i've been telling you guys for a while now recessions can be kicked off by asset bubbles are there any asset bubbles around right now for example the real estate bubble the stock market bubble the bond bubble any of these bursts from what happens you may get into a recession it might kick it off a great example of this is the global financial crisis that was the last recession we were in and people will say wasn't there a recession when we started going through the whole

coronavirus thing that wasn't technically a recession that was more of an economic pause the last recession we have had as a country is 14 years ago and that's the longest it's been between recessions for america ever but that housing bubble led to a recession and you might say that was because of all the excess debt people took on their mortgages but that's only part of it it was also because of the housing bubble as it burst that's what instigated the recession another thing

that can cause a recession is if there's too much inflation sort of like now maybe but even to go a step further makes it even more likely is if they have to react to the inflation they start fighting it by raising interest rates interest rate increases are a huge cause of recession as are the bursting of asset bubbles as is too much inflation but let's look at the other side of the coin there's something worse than inflation and economists know this it's deflation unlike inflation where they actually

think that they have tools to fight it by raising interest rates for example they don't have tools to fight deflation not in the same way and if it gets a foothold deflation does it's going to be incredibly difficult to battle against it with deflation prices decline over time therefore wages start to decline people buy less stuff prices are coming down so you might be looking at something you're going to buy you know it's going to be cheaper down the road so you wait so then the buying constricts and that's a

deflationary spiral when it gets out of hand businesses have no choice but to lower their spending levels they have to not hire as many people maybe not pay them as much not advertise as much not create so much inventory central banks have very few tools to battle deflation you can see an example of this in the real world look at japan they had a lost decade which turned into three lost decades started in the 1990s they have a deflationary spiral that they can't seem to get out of there's some houses you could have

bought in 1990 in japan that are at the same price now and here's a major cause of recessions that people often overlook technological advancements you have dozens of people hundreds of people may be working a farm field they invent the tractor it says sorry everyone you're all fired the tractor is going to do your job for you does it help improve efficiency yeah you know it does but the thing is first it gets a lot of people to lose their job just like the manufacturing you're seeing robots are doing most of the work

in most of the factories nowadays and that's why there's not as much manufacturing in america everyone says china stole all our jobs who stole our jobs the robots china too but the robots and when i say china i'm talking about any economy where the workforce costs a lot less even as you're watching this video there's robots doing stuff that used to be done by humans for a good salary and now they don't get that salary the products get made more efficiently and for a lower price so that when you buy

the product you pay less for it but at the same time the underlying economy gets weakened by that advancement but let's talk about economic expansion as the economy expands there's a lot more drive for people to take on more debt it's easier to get debt it's easier to get a mortgage people businesses too they take on a lot more debt in an economic expansion or a period of expansion so everybody's loading up on debt it's just kind of like they are now we have more debt right now than anyone

ever in the entire world has ever had america has more debt right now and you think about when the economy is expanding you look back to irrational exuberance that was greenspan a few years back right before the markets took a big hit or you look at 1929 everyone the word of the day was permanent prosperity and then the markets came down there all of a sudden was a permanent prosperity and we're seeing similar calls for that kind of thing right now a lot of people are telling me on my youtube channel well

the markets never go down there's never corrections anymore i'm like yes there is you're just not seeing one for a while you have a short memory you're like a goldfish as the expansion of the economy continues people take on more and more debt and more and more and more debt while asset values rise faster and faster just like we're seeing now that people are acting like they've never seen this kind of situation this happens again and again and again that's why it's easy for me it's a

freebie to say that there's going to be a recession there's always a recession and it's coming up very soon in my opinion when i say very soon i don't mean tomorrow i don't mean next week maybe not even next quarter but in the coming years sure this year yes 2022 will have a serious recession which will be the beginning of a really tough period in the economy which is why nobody watches these videos rather than deal with it and expect it and prepare for it people just turn the

channel i don't blame them i would too and we'll get into all the great stuff in just a minute all the stuff you can do right now but the bottom line is that one of these shocks will burst the asset bubbles it will kick off the recession and generally that happens when the debt loads are too big to maintain as they are now and if you raise interest rates those same debt loads suddenly become more expensive the result of that kind of event is that the economy goes from expansion to recession last question before we get to

the good stuff what's the difference between a recession and a depression well there's a lot of differences but let me tell you some the depression is generally much longer much more severe much much worse we have had one depression in 100 years that doesn't mean that we won't have another one to give you some points of comparison listen to this while a recession and we'll get into how long each recession generally is as a recession comes and goes that's a lot shorter than a

depression a depression can last for a decade whereas a recession will last months usually years there's a steeper decline in the gdp unemployment rates get a lot greater and it takes much longer to dig yourself out of that hole or recover from the depression compared to the recession it's been 14 years since the last recession and about just under 90 years since we had the great depression the great depression started in 1929 and it went to 1933. however the economy did not fully recover from that

depression until the end of world war ii which is 1945. during that time unemployment went to 25 and gdp fell by 30 compare that to the great recession or the last recession we had in the global financial crisis unemployment in that time peaked at about 10 and that lasted from december 2007 to june 2009 which makes it about a year and a half how long do recessions last typically if you look back to 1850 to 1919 which is the end of the great war the war to end all wars which is actually world war one

now world war ii during that period the average recession lasted 21.6 months fast forward to the end of the second world war in 1945 up until the global financial crisis the average recession then lasted only 11 months compared to 21.6 months so much much shorter in the last three decades how many recessions have we had in america i'll give you a minute to take a guess we've had three in 30 years in the great recession the global financial crisis was caused by the housing bubble bursting

which was a combination of people taking on too much debt to buy those houses and since the global financial crisis lasted a year and a half it was twice the length of most recent recessions that we've seen before that we had the dot-com bubble enron 911 and that one lasted only nine months a lot of that is because they dig us out of it by creating a whole bunch more debt they create new money to pay for things and that just devalues the currency's purchasing power across the board that's

why you've seen the us dollars purchasing power crater and last point before we get to the good stuff can you predict when there's going to be a recession yes you can when the yield curve inverts that means that long-term yields are lower than short-term yields yields being when you buy a bond for one year as opposed to when you buy a bond for 30 years you'll get paid less to buy the longer-term bond that is completely logically upside down but it happens right before every recession flawlessly now consumer

spending is 70 percent of the american economy so when that declines that contracts the entire economy and a lot of that is because of the loss of confidence among people you're watching the news you see what's going on you're going to see a lot of red on the screens on the stock market screens you're going to see a lot of bad headlines your confidence will decline you will be less active in the economy that's why we're seeing velocity of money get pinched even more after it can't go much lower

than it is it seems to be possibly declining and the recession will further that even more people are putting money under the mattress rather than buying a new set of golf clubs and just add another punch in the gut i know it's getting pretty dark and i'm sorry people don't like that that's why nobody's here look at the viewership numbers on these videos even though they're better than anything else out there there's a wealth effect if your house is worth a lot you feel more wealthy you

spend more money there's a housing bubble collapse you'll spend less money or stock markets decline you're going to have margin calls you're going to feel less wealthy you'll buy less stuff the stock market is a great coincident indicator there's leading indicators you've heard of lagging indicators coincident indicators so the stock market reacts immediately to anything so it's a coincident indicator as people get a bit freaked out the stock market comes down there's

a lot of people who have overly leveraged themselves when they see things starting to go the other way they're all of a sudden going to be caught on the wrong side of this and they'll be financially in a bit of serious trouble suddenly that they didn't expect or see coming so when we do get into recession economic contraction you may lose your job you probably won't but some people will and there won't be a lot more incentive for other companies to hire more workers even if you have a

job you might see a pay cut or they'll be less likely to give you all the bonuses and benefits that come with the job businesses will be under trouble and so they're not going to be greedily hiring everyone and the thing is if you do lose your job and i don't think you will but if someone loses their job they will have a harder time going out and finding another job because nobody's hiring everybody is firing there's a period of contraction in the economy it affects every business across the entire

nation as businesses make fewer sales they're more likely to run into a cash crunch or get closer to bankruptcy and as more people are unable to pay for all the stuff that or the lifestyle they're used to then lenders like banks become less likely to give additional credit or allow someone to take on a mortgage in the first place you might not be able to get an increase in your credit card that's how it starts and then just gets worse and worse and it becomes more and more demanding for you to take on any

kind of debts from any kind of financer you're going to need a larger down payment to buy a home you're going to want a credit score that's even more immaculate than your credit score is right now if you want to talk to a bank or a credit card about allowing you to have more capital to borrow okay you did it and this is a really good part this is where we start to get into the good news telling you what you can do and a lot of the stuff is actually going to be beneficial for you especially compared to everybody

who's not paying attention to this stuff the first part of good news is that recessions do not last forever even the great depression created more millionaires than ever has been created in the history of america and it led into the longest sustained growth of the economy ever so here's what you do for the recession in 2022 first while it's on its way while it's approaching and a lot of people aren't even at this phase yet so you're already ahead of the game number one please stop

believing all the that's out there people are talking about that there's not corrections that markets only go up over time or they start banking on the plunge protection team i told you about and this is why you should subscribe to this channel i tell you all this stuff there's a lot of diminishing returns that's why quantitative easing one had a much bigger effect than quantitative easing the plunger protection team did some things which really helped out the next time they take that same action it's a

little bit less effective a little bit less effective and that for example is a demonstration of something that's artificial the plunge protection team is artificial what they do is artificial and i tell you always what is artificial is always every time temporary the effect of the plunge protection team will be less and less and less and every time it will also always be temporary that's why we're still talking about it now they haven't fixed anything they just temporarily helped out a little bit

another big step which you're already right in the middle of watch and learn a lot of stuff like this video is a great starting point and it's probably a lot better than any other video you're gonna see but you can learn about recessions from a lot of other free online sources and if you have wi-fi it's not even gonna be hard to do that i'll take you two seconds you can eat popcorn while you're watching it a big thing that we're doing for the newsletter is that we're changing the mix of the types of

things we're investing in we're going from the hotlist picks which are long-term investment ideas more towards swing trades which are short term weeks we're looking to get 10 15 percent in a short period of time then you take your money out of the market put it back in make a few bucks take it out put it into as opposed to investing and letting it roll don't get me wrong we still love long-term investments you got to get the right ones that will do well not only despite the recession but sometimes

because of the recession and i'll get into a bunch of these in just a minute you've got to pay down your debts especially high interest rate debt like credit cards and especially floating rate debt if you have any kind of debt that the rates float and then the interest rates are going up you're going to be paying more for your mortgage more for your credit cards more for your auto loan so you want to try and consolidate that if you have a low interest rate line of credit that could cover all that

do it now pay off your credit cards everything put everything to the lowest interest rate debt that you have ideally a fixed rate and i should say that i'm not telling you what to do i don't know what you should do it's all my opinion about what you should do which is different you want to shift your bias to what kinds of things you're investing in if you're still going to be investing in stocks like i'm telling you to do with the swing trades you look for smaller gains and shorter time frames again and

again and again we'll probably be better as we roll into the recession but you want to mix your bias to what kinds of investments you're investing in so for example you should be more attracted to defensive stocks things like utilities and less attracted to things like speculative stocks things that are really high multiples floating out there that are possibly overvalued you want to look at things that are really good values companies that have recurring revenue companies that have money

continually coming in and they're not as volatile and if you have the ability to have cash on the sidelines then you want to do that because cash will be king as we roll through an economic contraction things that are valued at this much right now will cost you that much some other things that i think you should do as you prepare for the incoming recession in 2022 is you need to look at it like an opportunity prepare yourself to react to all the bargains that are going to be all around you i've told you many times that more

millionaires were created in the great depression than the other time in history this is going to happen again one of the things i did is i sold a lot of stocks i had harley-davidson game stop i got rid of lululemon cracker barrel all this stuff a while back and i moved a lot of it into something that's going to hold this value and probably go up a lot of prices a lot of the gold mining companies in my opinion and one of the things you have to watch for maybe mine in the minefield is these luxury items some kind of companies

selling really expensive watches they'll be in less demand going forward an expensive steakhouse will not hold up to an investment in domino's pizza pizza by the way is a great idea to invest in going into the recession because that's what i was going to buy instead of a steak a lot of companies will help people and corporations spend less money or save money become more efficient and those are the kinds of things you want to invest in because they will do well during their session because of the

recession not just in spite of it and these are the kinds of things that we're looking at for the peter leeds newsletter what about a house what about a home you have a home what should you do about it look you got to get out of the rain so if you own a house don't worry about it but i do believe that there's a housing bubble and it's going to come down pretty significantly i think first though the problem is not a problem it's a good thing there's a low well it's not a good thing

there's a low inventory of newly built homes it's costing more to build a home it's costing more for the homes the affordability of homes has never been more gross in my opinion there's not enough homes for everybody that wants to buy one right now until that change is going to be an upward pressure on home prices but it is nearing the end of that expansionary cycle for home prices especially as we're going to see happens as soon as i start meaningfully raising interest rates the first rate increase

of which will be probably this week and then it will just get worse and worse going forward or the federal reserve will just give in to inflation and we'll all be paying more for everything there is a consideration that this is one of those periods and this is not something i would always agree with where it would make more sense to rent for a year and a half right now rather than buy a house and a year and a half from now you come back and tell me if you're mad at me for saying that i think that if you don't

buy a house now and you rent if you have to look for a place to live i think that you'll be in a much better situation going forward once the mud hits the fan and as always try to pay down your debts but there's so much uncertainty right now more that i've seen probably in my lifetime and uncertainty is horrible for the stock market it's horrible for the economy it's horrible for the wealth effect all of these are going to be negative influences on how the economy is going to react what you should do about it now

there are a few investments if you're talking about stocks and this is stuff that we are looking at that's why i'm saying you can do well despite the intercession and sometimes because the recession some of the stuff that we're looking at are military stocks and i know a lot of people don't like to invest in military stuff but i'm saying the military tends to hold up regardless military is sometimes more important to a country than just about anything else so military stocks tend to hold up

regardless of the recession we'll look for disruptive technology companies because these are the kind of companies that could grow so dramatically that it will blow past the negative influence from the inbound recession look at microsoft that started in their garage a lot of companies when they have just a few employees and they're just getting started in their mom's basement wherever they'll grow so strongly so quickly that it would overpower any negative influence from the economy another one is

healthcare a lot of times you don't care about the economic situation when you've got a kidney stone if there's an elective surgery you want to get some saline solution pumped into your lips to make them look more plump that's an elective surgery that will decline that will drop off a cliff but things that are not discretionary operations things like a kidney stone you're going to get that done no matter what regardless of the economy because you're in pain and i love gold mining companies right

now i think this is a sweet spot for gold i like to get into the productive companies the ones that say we have gold we're digging it out they bring it out and they go who wants to buy this those are productive companies there's a lot of exploration gold mining companies i don't go near them because well i do sometimes depending on the company but i don't like them as much because they're just saying we know that there's proven reserves underground but we can't afford

to take it out of the ground yet or maybe they're still just looking for they've got probable inferred reserves those are not the same kind of investment you want to look for a company that's got a reserve life index an rli of at least double digits 10 years or more at this current rate of extraction of the resource before their resource runs dry and are they operating in a friendly nation are they in europe or certain african countries certain south american countries but not some of them or canada for example

they're in a militarily and politically friendly country it's a lot better to run a gold mining company from one of those locales than getting into some gold mining company out in russia now oil everybody says should i invest in oil companies sure maybe maybe you'll do well but the thing is this when there's a recession an economic contraction what happens it's a decline in the total overall economic activity when that happens there's less demand on oil and that's why you see oil prices decline in most

recessions and now the new thing is about this windfall tax oil companies are saying it's doing so well and consumers are paying so much for gas so we're going to do a windfall tax on some of these oil companies that is a red flag for me as soon as they go okay you're making money we're going to take some of it and they won't give it to the people who are buying gas they'll keep it and they'll blow it i promise you that much they are putting an unnecessary negative effect on oil production

companies that's an added risk that's unnecessary and hasn't been around really up until this point that's why i'm a little bit shy in terms of getting into too many oil companies and by disclosure i do own some oil companies but i am very nervous about this whole windfall tax because it's just basically they're just taking taking money from a company that might have had hard times and oil prices were low now companies are making more money because oil prices are high and so the government says okay

we'll take some of that that's not a way to run a business american government is completely turning their back on capitalism which is the only thing that'll pull us out of this ditch one more thing i'd suggest you do and i'm not telling you what to do i have no idea what you should do well one last thing before we get into what to do once the recession gets here is that you might want to delay big purchases if you're thinking about buying an expensive watch or a massive

house or a really expensive car give me a month and a half don't buy it right now give me a month and a half and come back to me and give me a hell about it or thank me for it i would suggest you don't buy any high ticket or expensive item right now of any kind unless you need it now what do you do when the recession of 2022 shows up and how do you react to it this is a good part number one don't get spooked out don't believe all the scary headlines especially because while we're

in the recession you're gonna see a lot of red on the stock market a lot of people losing money losing their job and you're going to get a lot of headlines that are great click bait and some of them are very important to read very important maybe accurate but the point is a lot of people get spooked out and then they sell right when they shouldn't or they get frightened out of the market at the time when they shouldn't be and it'd be better if they stayed in the market and understand as the recession goes on and

on and on there will be negative headlines all the way down and they'll get louder and they'll get more serious every day even all the way to the very bottom which we're going to talk about in a second you can know when the bottom is in but there'll be headlines telling you that everything is horrible everything's going so bad right up until that moment where you should be jumping in with both hands buying with every penny that you can during the recession of 2022 focus on things like the swing trades that we

provide to you rather than the long-term investments except for specific companies when we have a long-term investment in the company it's because now's the time to invest in that long term so don't misunderstand what i'm saying but you might want to lean more towards swing trades shorter term investments so that you continually have cash on the sidelines and take advantage of all the opportunities that will be literally all around you on your way to work every day swing trades are more

dynamic they're more responsive that's why we have a mix of both types now here's the part that a lot of people this is one of the reasons why i think not a lot of people watch these videos also because i'm going to give you some homework and it's a true thing and it sucks but you got to do it and i'm telling you you got to do it there's a lot more things that are important than money and life if you don't know that then you're not understanding life you need to in my opinion

check on your elderly parents people who are going to get hit by this massive pension crisis we're about to run right into people who don't have money to eat or to heat their homes check on them help them out or anybody you know with financial insecurity because you can't judge someone for being in a train crash but you can help them get out of the tangle of metal after the crash why don't you help people who aren't as aware of everything that's happening people like you watch these videos

there's people who aren't watching these videos they're going to get absolutely decimated so help them the mark of the strength of an economy of a person is how you help the weakest among you help people out they didn't know any better but you do and this is what's going to happen so lend a hand to them prepare for that think about it consider it you should make a strike list of what are you going to do what stocks are you going to buy which ones you want to watch you start watching

them during the recession you say i'd like to buy that when it gets a bit cheaper i'll buy that when it gets a bit cheaper and you're watching them on an ongoing basis weeks and months so that you'll get used to the underlying investment and you'll know the perfect moment to react to it or to act take action and your strike list should also include other assets besides stocks that you want to buy not just stocks so things like a rental income property and i know most people are like well i'm not going

to buy rental income property i get that i'm just saying it for an example because it will be a lot cheaper anything you're going to buy is going to be a lot cheaper so make a strike list of how are you going to react do this during the recession wait till the recession gets here and then start paying attention to stuff so you know how to react as we get to the very bottom of the recession which if you subscribe to this channel i'll tell you exactly what it is but i guess nobody cares what i have to say

and you're going to want to have a side hustle maybe you become a uber driver maybe you're a door dash delivery person i have not seen a door dash delivery person who hasn't had a smile on their face so they must be enjoying what they do maybe you rent out an extra room in your basement maybe you turn your house into a bed and breakfast you're going to want to have a side hustle because the economy right now and how you're getting paid and what kinds of jobs are out there is going to absolutely shift and

so in that transition you need to react to it and start providing value to someone so that they provide value to you so you can feed your kids and maybe anything you have that has any kind of value you could sell it but if you want to do that i would say do it before the recession not during the recession and now i'm going to wrap it up this is the end what to do after the recession of 2022 you need to make sure as the tide turns when we bottom out you got to put your cash to work you got to take action you

got to be very active if you didn't do anything before the recession got here you didn't do anything when the recession got here you still are going to want to be very active as we bottom out at the end of this next recession we will hit bottom you'll be able to tell when we hit bottom first of all because i'm going to tell you because you're going to subscribe to this channel but also because we hit a capitulation point when people are throwing out the baby with the bath water when people are just

rather getting rid of stuff rather than own it at a loss and they just can't even look at it anymore let's take this share take this investment take this asset they just want to get it out and away from themselves that's the capitulation point i'll tell you exactly when we get there and a capitulation point is literally the single best time to buy anything ever now you get to see a demonstration of my arrogance i have given more media interviews about penny stocks than any living human being

i've written more published books about penny stocks than any living human being now you can start benefiting from all the specialized hard work of my team whether that involves our swing trades or our longer term hotless picks or even my own personal investment decisions or my own personal investment portfolio