[Music] I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and here today with me is Peter Goodburn, founder of Waveterek International. Thank you so much for being here. Great to have you. Thanks, Charlotte. It's great to meet you actually. Really good to be meeting you as well. It's our first time talking and I think that many people in our audience are probably familiar with you and your work, but I thought to begin with just a quick intro to yourself and what you're doing right now.


Well, sure. Um, well, my career in in u in the financial markets began um in 1978 and at that time I joined a company called Bilitin, which um might be familiar with with some of your audience. Um they're they're a big mining group. Actually in those days back in the late '7s they were owned by Shell. Um as were a lot of mining companies were owned by the oil conglomerates. Um and that formed um basically later into orin folded later into BHP um which was which was was in those days


broken hill proprietary but everybody abbreviates it. But we were ring dealing members on the London Metal Exchange. So um commodities was a really big deal in those days. Um um it was sort of really secondary to the stock market in in a lot of ways and um the main the main contract on the London Metal Exchange was copper. It was also trading in New York. But um because London had a different way of um its mechanism, it attracted um a lot of hedging business from all sorts of countries like Africa,


um China, South America, Chile, places like that. So um it was a it was a really exciting time to sort of get a baptism into commodity trading because back in the back in the late 70s um it was like only a few years after Breton Woods was disbanded and of course there was huge price inflation going on prices were going up in a lot of areas including precious metals and I know you're really familiar with those and of course gold was leaving the gold standard you know in the 70s and um copper and and other commodities were


going through the roof. So, um that was a really exciting time. And of course, um in those two years of of um of initiation into the commodity scene, we had hyperinflation, of course. Um interest rates were going through the roof and um the US administration was sort of attempting to try and stem the dollar decline at that point in time. And um actually, I've got an excerpt. I thought I I found this um actually and I thought I'd show it to everybody. Um this was a this is an extract from


the Financial Times. um it was dated November 1st and it's coming out of my diary from that year and it shows um just how ruthless um the um the dollar decline was at that time and just how the uh the US administration at that time was trying to defend the dollar's decline through all sorts of different me measures like um drawing down from the IMF and the World Bank and so on. But that's just an extract from my early history. Um later um after about 10 years um um in in brokerage and fund management I actually


uh ended up creating Wave Track International and uh that was late that was after the 87 crash in the stock market and we've been um running um our books since then and primarily we're an Elliot wave analysis group um and a lot of Canadians may be tuning in might might know something about Elliot wave because AJ Frost um took over the baton from um from Hamilton Bolton uh from Bank Credit Analyst and they're still based I think they're based in in uh Quebec I think the other side of where


you are but but they are they were principally um um taking the baton of Elliot wave analysis from Elliot himself who died in 1948 and that sort of analysis is the bedrock of our um company and it's fairly deterministic. in which case it has predictive value. So we get a lot of um ideas about where trends are developing from and that's our specialist subject. Um and we've got an overlay of that a little bit because our specialist area within Elliot wave is really ratio and proportion. So we tend to use that a lot


in order to get amplitudes of different trends and stuff like that. So that's really my background. Okay. Well, really good to hear about your background and and how you work right now. And of course, always good to hear about the Canadian contribution because of course that's where I'm coming to you from. So, we'll get into we'll get into talking about some of the areas of the market you cover and as you mentioned, precious metals is really a strong focus for us over here. So, I was going to


begin with gold and if we could take a look at gold and where based on your analysis, gold is in the cycle right now. just to start with a a broad look at the the market there. Yeah, sure. Well, the um the gold price is quite fascinating because actually if we're going to really take a look at gold, one thing we need to do is go back to um a point where it was an extreme low and and that means going back to the Great Depression period, 1932 down here. So, we need to begin analyzing gold from that perspective. um anywhere


shorter than that you're getting a sort of a a fragment picture and trying to build a universe from a fragment picture which can be a bit misleading. So when we're doing Elliot wave analysis um in order to understand what price development is like up and down the swings and the amplitudes it's really really really important um to get long-term historical data. Um, and even some of our data on silver, for example, goes back to the Middle Ages. We've got data, I think, from 1300. So, but gold, um, really hasn't


been much lower than this point in the Great Depression lows. And the trend is composed of five price swings. Now, um, Elliot wave denotes a trend not just in the normal schematic that we use where you've got higher highs and higher lows. That's the normal definition of an uptrend where the price action is higher highs and higher lows. But in Elliot wave terms, we can be a bit more specific. We can actually say that an uptrend in this magnitude will develop into five price swings or five waves. And you can see


the first wave um um which is basically here. And then you have the second wave which is a sort of a flat period because that's when the gold standard came in. And then once that was released during the Nixon period, we had a third wave. And then we had a correction down from 1980s peak here, 1999 2000 to wave four. And actually historically from this long-term trend, we're in a concluding fifth wave, which is in a way exciting and also a little bit of a a little bit of a um a warning sign for later, you know,


in the years to come that we shouldn't get too honistic with the price action because this is a concluding fifth wave. It's a multi-cenial rise from 1999. So we've got two decades of moving up so far, but by the end of this decade, you know, we would have almost certainly had a peak and if anybody's holding gold to any essential level that's meaningful. I mean, okay, a lot of individual investors might have a few gold coins, but it's not going to be lifechanging. Um but if you've got a sizable amount of


investment either leveraged or otherwise you know at some point in the future in the not too distant future over the next before the end of the decade at least we need to you need to have a bit of a realistic change of heart and start looking at potentially taking profits because gold's price action won't last forever going up exponentially forever. At some stage this fivewave pattern will finish. Now, when a fivewave pattern finishes, you're going to get a three-wave correction. And um and um the discoverer of this


pattern, Ralph Nelson Elliot, said when the correction comes, it normally retraces back to the low of wave four proceeding, which is basically here. So, so that's a bit of a shock. So, you know, you're you're you're you're riding you're riding the surf. you're going up and up and up still over the next several years, but basically at some point you need to take a reality check and come back. So um when we go back and look at the um the maybe shortterm picture which might be more


relevant for everybody um we can see that um just last month when we got to 3500 and actually funny enough 3500 is exactly 100 times the gold standard at $35 an ounce. That's a little bit of an interesting equation. WD Gan the great analyst and trader of the 1920s used to multiple used to put zero multiples on important lies highs and lows in order to gauge where the next transition would be. Um but 3500 I believe was finished a sequence of trend that dates back here to October 23 that was 1810 and we can count an


Elliot fivewave pattern up in that sequence and we can measure it as well. to depict um a top. So I think that um gold um is on its way lower for the next several months at the moment. Um that we're going through again a transition of correction to the downside and we've started with an initial decline down here to 3260 and we've undergone a noticeable Elliot wave expanding flat pattern there. It's very clear what that was and it's traded down since. And I think shortterm there's a bit of a flip


coming. We could get to 3350, but then we should start to look at um a resumption to the downside. And uh if we're going to translate that into some downside targets that we have at the moment, I think we should aim for something like 2720 or 2518. We'll be able to tighten up on those numbers. the more price activity that develops to the downside because then we can measure those movements. But these are the preliminary downside targets you got to think about. So um if you're leveraged into trading


gold either through bullion or ETFs or even even some of the miners some of the gold miners you know some of them are looking a little bit topheavy. Um you have to understand that there is downside risk at the moment. Yeah. Well, I think that gives us a pretty clear picture of the shortterm and long-term that you see coming for gold and makes a lot of sense to me. You know, we can be excited but also a little bit cautious being in this fifth wave time right now. I think a lot of people will will hear that and think,


okay, so in this in this fifth wave that we're in, what is the price potential for gold? When should I really be feeling cautious about about taking a pullback there? So, any thoughts on that note? When you say cautious about being pulled back, do you mean during this dip or do you mean when after the dip when it moves up? I'm thinking after the dip when it moves up and we're in that final final time. Yeah. Well, I think that um there's a couple of things. I mean, we're going to basically look at gold


and what drives gold at that point. We're going to see how far it moves up. I mean this was a very emotional um move movement up I think mainly because actually if you go back 18 months or thereabouts the old the whole discussion on gold wasn't really um whether or not gold was going to go up I think there was a long a lot of conviction that gold prices would go up amongst the investment community I'm not talking about the gold buds who are always forever long I'm talking about you know


the external guys who are saying well I need to make money is gold a viable option to trade paid, you know, into investing. I'm talking about the large asset managers and the hedge funds. But, um, it was only recently that, um, it caught the 1970s bug of going up because of inflation fears and that was being obviously coming through from the tariff negotiations and the fact that, you know, there was a trade war going on. Um, now as the stock market recovers, that's likely to trend up. Inversely, gold should come down.


But um just how far the next gold movement up occurs is going to be a very interesting uh proposition to analyze because I think we go back to the long-term chart that I showed earlier. Um I think our top end range is about 3820. I think that's about top end and probably no more. But I have to say that um when we look at the gold silver ratio and we can see that silver is very undervalued. I mean we've been trading over a 100red on the gold silver ratio which basically means 100 ounces of


silver for 1 ounce of gold and historically we've never been um or seldom in the past been at that sort of level. And when we have been on the two occasions in the distant past where we have seen the gold silver ratio could trade above 100 um we've seen some very big declines which means that silver outperforms gold and that's something which I think is very relevant here because we're looking at a chart going back to the 19 just off the 1930 lows and if you go back to 1941 Um there were 96 ounces to 1 oz of


ounces of silver to 1 oz of gold. But then in the post war years going into the 1970s we went down to 1836 and and since then we've moved all the way out. This is the pandemic peak at 112. And you can see we're trading today at 98.8. This is real time. But um and we've probably got a little bit more to squeeze out. This is a a quarterly closing chart. Actually, intraday. If I zip to intraday, you'll see that um it's um yeah, we're trading. We've already traded here at 107 last month. I


think that we might squeeze up a little bit more, but that's it. And after that, we're really looking at a significant downtrend developing, and that means huge silver outperformance. So I think that we should switch our thinking around a little bit even though gold currently is working its way lower in this correction down for intermediate wave four down to our 27 20 25 36 max target area. when the market starts to trend up again, I think we take another look at silver because I think silver bases the gold silver ratio


has a lot of um downside potential that narrows the spread or narrows the ratio in silver's favor. Um it's not quite ready to go yet. Um so I think we have to be a little bit patient, but it's almost there, you know, to a point where you say, "No, I'm buying silver over gold." Yeah, I think that's a a question that a lot of people have. What should I favor? Is it gold or silver? So, that sheds some light there. If we look at silver, is it going through? You showed us the


the five waves for gold. Can we see a similar pattern emerging in silver or how does it look to you? Yeah, it's um the long-term picture is a little bit different, but um actually um it still delivers a very big upswing. Now um this is um this is a very long-term silver chart goes back again to the Great Depression lows. It's orthodox uptrend of five waves which we saw earlier on gold actually peaked in 1980. And I think that we're going through um a corrective pattern, a multi-enial


corrective pattern where the first sequence down of the correction was back here. So this is the low in 1993 when we were $348 and I think this swing up is wave B of a larger corrective pattern. And I think we could get to $70. So, it's going to be very difficult to um to really double your money in gold at these price levels even after a correction. I think it will be difficult if we get down to 2700. Um it's going to be difficult to get it's difficult to get to sort of six and a half $7,000 on gold to keep pace


with silver if it goes to 70. But I think 70 is a very easy proposition for silver bases the gold silver ratio. So, I think that a long-term investor definitely needs to be buying silver and uh I think that I think that will be a very fruitful it's just a question of where do you do you do you step in? Do you step in now or wait a little bit to the downside? I probably wait and see if we could get a little bit lower on silver before buying it. Um and the other thing that um that's very interesting um


talking about which precious metal to buy over gold is is platinum because the gold platinum ratio. Wow, that's incredible. [Music] Um here's a long-term gold platinum ratio. And again, we go back to the 1920s, but this is where the the ratio was its narrowest point. And we're at its widest point as far as the last 100 years goes. That means platinum is very inexpensive. And molecularly, you know, 1 ounce of platinum, one little bar of platinum is going to actually be slightly smaller than an ounce of gold


because the molecular compression is is higher. And that has a lot of offering in terms of new technology which probably will come on stream in the next year. So, I think that we haven't we're not quite ready to buy platinum over gold yet because this sequence has still got enough momentum upside to even take us a bit higher. And I'm watching platinum very closely on a on a on a day-to-day basis um for its completion of its correction down. But at some point, platinum um will outperform gold. And I think it may


even outperform silver, which is interesting. And it is very interesting. I know platinum is one that a lot of people have been watching as it kind of goes in that sideways motion. So that would be very interesting to see if it could finally make that breakout. I'm wondering your thoughts on the gold stocks and perhaps the silver stocks as well because typically we hear that they will outperform the metals. Is that something that that you see coming or what are your thoughts? Well, in 2016, back end of 2015, um, we


we turned very bullish because that was basically, this is GDX, um, and we turned bullish down there because we saw a very succinct corrective pattern that dated back to March08. That was the top of the financial crisis. And this pattern is called an expanding flat pattern. And we we had forecast this decline almost to the dollar. And we went really bullish. And then and then suddenly from 1240 we went up to 31. So we did two and a half times multiple getting up there almost three times multiple


and gold only did a 30% run higher. Gold bullion only went up 30%. Where this did 250% or more. So we thought wow okay this is um we know that this was a major low. This is a new bull market and that gives us the impression that um the gold miners would outperform bullion in going forward. But um actually in this last period of the last 18 months or more gold bullion has been the one to to hold not necessarily this. I mean okay this has doubled from 21 this is going back now to September 22. Um and and October 23 was when the


last acceleration up for intermediate wave three occurred for gold. And this one has done pretty well. I mean they have done pretty well, but not as much as I originally thought they might. And the um the pattern adjustment that we made in our analysis shows that there's somewhat more limitation going on here than we thought before, but there's still upside um um gains in multiple terms to be made. Maybe not from here because we're currently today just below $50 and looking ahead over the next


several years. I think the maximum we can get to is probably 100 just above 100 here. But what I'm concerned about in the shorter term, which means over the next several months, whilst gold bullion trades lower, I think the gold miners will tick back and and fall back inside this range. The range is basically 4578 here. to 2152 and we've seen a slight nudge above that high. For some people in technical terms that would be a buy breakout, but that for me is not because in Elliot wave terms that's only possible if


there's a fivewave pattern. But we've only got three waves up here, which is a very dangerous sign that the mark that this um gold miners want to fall back inside the range. And we can see that consistently with the XAU, the gold silver index. And we can see it with a lot of the, you know, some of the major miners. Um, Newmont Mining, I'm not sure which ones. Agnika Eagle maybe, and Anglr Gold, a Shanty. They all look very similar. Maybe we can have a look at Anglo Gold Shanty. Let's have a quick


look. Um, I think there's a similar construct. Yeah, it's clear construct. So, we've had basically the movement down, but three waves up here. This is really dangerous. So, if this starts to fall back in the next weeks and trades below 3850, I'm afraid that means it's going to fall quite hard back inside the range. Um, but that's consistent with the bullion idea that on the bullion prices we're going to pull back as well. So um but later of course if we if we were fortunate enough to to trade back


towards this low which I think is possible then of course the multiples begin to work in our favor again because the next swing up will take us up to 88. So if you go from 12 to 88 what is that as a multiple there's some pretty good math people probably listening in six seven times multiples. So there is going to be huge you know you're not going to see that on gold bullion anymore. You're not going to get six seven multiples on gold bullion. No that's not possible. So yes um there are there are going to be some


really exquisite trades to be made on the equity side of gold miners but I think we we have to ease off a little bit now because I think there's certainly downside risk in the next several months. Okay. Okay. And I think a lot of people are are used to seeing that maybe in the summer where we see that type of pullback. I'm I'm curious to get your thoughts as well. So while we have this gold and gold stocks taking a break for the next few months, what do you see happening in the broader stock market in


the US? Because I think there are people that I speak to, I see in our comments section people are thinking, okay, there's going to be maybe a big pullback there. We're not sure what's happening. But you've you've done published some recent research that I think kind of shows the opposite happen where we have a a higher move there in the overall stock market. Well, that's right. Um I'm just going to this is um actually an excerpt from our latest Elliot wave navigator report and


um actually the theme here is really looking at the fangs and the semiconductors because um they've been of course the mag sevens. You know, they've been all the leaders before and they fell out of favor. um back end of last year and and certainly responsible for the larger percentage declines that we've had um since December into the April lows. Um but before we we take a look at some of those, this is the the broader benchmarks. The S&P 500 traded in New York and and we're going to take


a look at the NASDAQ. But this was our forecast from our annual reports that we published in December. And at that time the S&P was finishing a rally from August. And we had recognized actually that this uh rally from August at 5120 um into the December high was actually the second sequence of what we call an expanding flat pattern. And the archetype pattern that we're trying to we've identified is actually here in this tutorial. Um, so the orthodox correction actually began in July


earlier, 5721 down to 5120, which was wave A. And we said that this Bwave will break into a new high, but then it will collapse and it will break the August low. So in other words, we're going to come down to 5120, run up into December, and then we're going to have this massive 20% drop that's going to take us towards 4,900. And once it gets down there, then it's going to attract new buyers and start to de develop to the upside. And and this is the actual pattern that we've updated. And you can


see now here's the top in December. And here's the collapse down to that 4,900 level. We actually got to an orthodox low of 4871 and 3/4. So just just um slightly below the numbers, but then whoosh straight back up again. Um, so when you make a forecast like this where you're it's predetermined, so you're actually measuring the the type of pattern that is expected to develop downwards in this manner and it hits the numbers and then reverses back up. you get a very high conviction level that you've correctly


an analyzed the pattern and and since then the S&P and the NASDAQ have been trending up in a in a very strong manner which suggests to us that the uptrend has resumed um despite the narrative of course and here's the NASDAQ the same pattern from July down into August uh three waves up in wave B uh for this expanding flat pattern and then see down I think we're a bit ambitious with this one we talked about 15 and a half 16,000. I think the actual low was 164, but it broke the August low which was


the prerequisite um minimum condition and um and then straight back up again. So all of this looks bullish and we're ready for the next major uptrend. So I mean for the NASDAQ we're talking about 31 and a half thousand. So, we're talking about a good what is that 25% maybe something like that going up over the next several months. And I think this movement, this trend up is part of a larger pattern which we we recognize from the pandemic lows back here. And this is the last phase of the secular bull uptrend that


when we start seeing this movement up now that we started to 31 a half thousand. This is basically the reason why I think gold is also going to be trending down for the next months because basically before that we had gold moving up with the background of the tariffs and the inflation aspect. But if if the stock market's trending up now there's no reason to hold gold in the same manner anymore. So I think gold will gradually um start to see liquidation as the stock market goes up. So you'll get these two diametric


opposite movements of direction in the two different asset classes like that. So yeah, I think we're very bullish. Um and um and I think this um this particular um report is on Elliot Way Navigator. So we we actually look at if anybody's interested by by tuning in we we look at all the mag sevens and a few others but also a lot of semiconductors which are very relevant. Yeah. So uh I think yeah we can be very bullish for stocks now and I think it'll take a little while for the big asset managers to click into


this idea that they've missed out a little bit at the April lows. I think we know from the from the data stats that actually it was the small investor that was buying at those lows, not the not the big asset managers. So, they've missed out a bit. So, they're going to have to catch up a little bit. Yeah, I think I think you can really start to see how these different components fit together. So, that makes a lot of sense when we look at them one after the other. I'm curious. So, you're


you're really focused on the patterns and I'm wondering how much you take into account external events. So for example, this week we've got the US China trade deal really in focus or interim trade deal. Last week we had the Fed and interest rates, inflation really in focus. Are those things you're you're paying attention to or or how are you counting those when you do your analysis? Yeah, well sure we are paying attention to it. I mean most of our institutional um conference calls with with clients,


hedge funds and some of the big asset managers and the pension funds are all about the fundamentals. Um I think the people that know us a little bit know that um that we focus on the pattern uh um first and foremost and the amplitudes and then we look for the fundamentals how they fit with our synopsis. Um so for example I mean we had absolutely no idea um at the time when we were looking at the NASDAQ dropping down to these sort of numbers what the catalyst might be. We could we could hypothesize of


course we could say right well we're looking at a 30% decline for the NASDAQ from the December highs. Um what is going to trigger that? So when we start talking to our institutional clients we are discussing what the fundamental external exogenous events might be. Um but where where basically most of the discussion um is what catalyst do we think will augment the analysis not the other way around. So our primary focus really is on the patent determination. I've given you a pretty good example of


how we can forecast these in a very accurate manner um without having to stretch the imagination too far. And then when the narrative comes in, you know, we can basically fit that around. At the moment, the narrative is still around tariffs, of course, why should the market trend upwards and continue upwards in the months ahead. Um well, we can again put a hypothetical statement around that and wrap it up and say, well, obviously um the whole tariff situation will settle down and various different countries will come forward


their own proposals to settle the tariff war with the United States. But you know that's I think a very logical outcome um to what we have. But generally speaking pattern and price amplitude comes first in our analysis and we we then discuss what the um what the potentiality is um for the fundamental picture to wrap around it really. Yeah. Okay. Okay. Thanks for going into that. I think it makes a lot of sense. And just because we do have US and China in focus right now. I did want to take a


look over at rare earth because I know that's a part of the market that you cover and I don't get a chance to to talk about it very much, but I think it's important as we have these these tensions kind of emerging. So, I'm curious what you see coming for Rare Earth. I know you look at one of the ETFs and maybe some of the larger stocks, what what would you want investors to know about that sector? Yeah, I mean unfortunately we don't have very very long-term data on rare earths


um to analyze, but what we have got is enough to give us um a bit of a synopsis of what to expect. Um this is the um this is the van vector's rare earth ETF. Um um I think it's REMX. And uh what was very interesting from us is of course a lot of markets bottomed in 2020. Um uh some didn't make some made secondary lows. The base metals like copper made secondary lows in the pandemic lows. They didn't break the 2016 lows. Um um but things like crude oil made a lower low in the pandemic lows which is


technically very interesting from our perspective to analyze and and rare earths did as well. Um and since then because they were major lows for a lot of other commodities we can see that what unfolded afterwards was an Elliot fivewave pattern again. So um we can see again waves one two and then we get price expansion which is typical for a third wave a bit of retracement for four and then eventually a fifth wave. Now, when a whenever a fivewave pattern like that runs up from an important low, a


correction has to follow. Normally, it would trend back to wave four proceeding um and then it would finish. There's some exceptional circumstances where it drops lower and this is one of those where the decline and this is almost I think 75% is traded all the way down to 32 bucks which is incredible given that we've rallied five waves beforehand and had a correction down. It's screaming, it's screaming out to be bought just from a riskreward basis because, you know, don't put too much


leverage, but but an ETF doesn't have futures expiring and you're not leveraged so much in terms of you're not going to get margin calls once you buy it. But um but if you did buy this, you've got huge upside potential, really huge because even if this pattern is just a corrective zigzag, I'm being a bit technical, so excuse me for that, but um the proportions for that um tell us to extend this by 618 ratio, which is a golden ratio from the Fibonacci sequence. That produces a target at 359.


I mean, um, yeah, riskreward. You're risking a stop loss below 2439, um, for something that's going to mean a t-fold experience to the upside. So, it looks phenomenal. I think it's definitely worth part of anybody's portfolio to look at an ETF like like this. And if we take a look at um if we take a look at MP materials now they were mentioned in in a recent um administration from the US because I think Trump talked about adding to the strategic reserve right I think there was mention of that there was a couple


of companies mentioned um M MP materials is the largest rare earth company traded in the US has a physical presence in the And here is the same decline that we saw on the VANC vectors movement down. So we've gone up in five ways from 991. It's traded basically a double bottom to 10 bucks. And now this one's outperformed van vectors. It's basically traded up here to 2972. I think that flip up was during the announcement that the US administration made saying that they're looking into adding rare earth to the


strategic reserve and um this is going going through a little bit of a correction down at the moment but in the broader context this should trade up to I think at least we've got a target at 97 bucks maybe a couple of years from now. So, some fantastic uh percentage increases coming for rare earths. And why not? If it's going to be added to the strategic reserve um and the pattern fits, I think that um again, it should be part of someone's portfolio. Yeah, I think taking a look at this,


it's definitely one where like you're saying before where the chart fits kind of that external narrative of what's going on with rare earth. So, very very fascinating to look at that. And I don't I don't want to keep you overly long today. This is really interesting. Are there any other areas I would ask you before I let you go that you find interesting in the market? It can be commodities or otherwise. I think you've already highlighted so many interesting things for us.


Um well, I think that crude oil is a fascinating long-term directive. Um you know um one of the things which um we talked about um well this is going back to the financial crisis selloff period in 2008 um when we started seeing the recovery from the lows in March 2009 in the stock market. They started the next secular bull market. People refer to the secular bull market in stock markets uh beginning from that junction low. So, um I think that was about 666 from memory on the S&P 500 and uh we're still


involved in that secular bull uptrend. But for commodities, a lot of commodities, their orthodox peaks from long-term uptrends um are not still in play. Uh if we take a look at oil for for an example, um now we're going to look at something really long term on oil. Um, we're going to take a look at crude oil from the 1930s. So, here's the Great Depression lows. Now, what you'll see in a lot of commodities, including some of the base metals as well, like copper and aluminium, they bottomed in 1931


32, and they've seen five waves up over a very long-term period, an Elliot fivewave pattern. and they topped out pre-financial crisis. So these are the highs that we saw in 2008. This is I think July should be July 2008 and and then um we have to undergo a correction. Now again, Elliot said in his original works in in 1938 that a correction should return back to wave four proceeding. Well, here's wave four and and the target the range is somewhere between 36 and 1670. Uh the extreme low of the range is


$12 and oil prices of course they had this rather exogenous sort of um strange uh trade down to 650 but it came back to wave four proceeding and this was the minimum retracement target that Elliot talked about. The reason why we got to 650 was because somebody was long. Um, and of course they didn't want to take delivery. Um, and it's a deliverable contract in New York. So, so they dumped. But you didn't see the same exaggerative selloff in Brent Oil. Brent oil was about $16.5. This was


650. So, there's a bit of an exaggerative selloff there. I think in normal circumstances it might have bottomed around 1670 actually, somewhere around there. But the the interesting aspect to the oil is that this decline at 650 doesn't begin a new bull market. We described this advance as the inflation pot period where um risk assets would go through some very big price accelerations to the upside. Stock markets, for example, fit into that model of the inflation bot. They're they're very overpriced um historically,


but people are still buying them because they believe in the price going up. So that generates even more buying and it will it will continue for the next few years until it eventually pops and um then the bubble will burst and then we realize that we've been trading a Ponzi scheme for these last several years. But um the same with crude oil which is a very good um barometer because it has a different pattern to the stock market but it's caught up in the same asset strip and the inflation pop which I call


most commodities trending up either from the financial crisis lows like copper or oil from the pandemic lows is is designed to have one big splurge to the upside. Now, we haven't quite finished the correction down from the March 22 highs yet in crude oil. I want to see sub $50 before we start buying it um um in a in a in a very significant way, but I think that we're going to see plus 200 bucks um at some point on crude oil before it collapses later. So, um this is what I call the inflation pop. I I developed


this um idea of the inflation pop um expression back in 2010 2011. to say that we've got two diametric different patterns developing on stock markets which is still part of the risk asset group and commodities which had their orthodox uptrends from the great depression lows finishing in July 2008 and copper finishing in um uh 2007. So we've got a very different structure um that's developing since then. And if you understand the structure of the how those two different asset classes are


working, you can basically then get a very stringent idea of how the future price development will occur and how it will develop and the amplitudes it will develop. So this um difference um is it's like I suppose um taking two different things but when they give the same results you get a very high credibility uh and and high integrity of the outcome. And so we've got a very exciting time to come actually um with commodities, you know, with the gold stocks that we saw earlier which can see big multiples to the


upside following a correction this year. And that's that's part of the inflation pot, you know. So there's got there's some fantastic things to be involved in for later, but it's not quite ready yet to to to be placing more money into commodities at this stage. I think if we're placing money anywhere, it should be the stock market. Yeah. Yeah, I think based on what you've laid out that makes a lot of sense. We'll we'll be a little patient on the commodities, but as you said, exciting


things to come. I think that's a a nice place to wrap it up. You've given us really a lot of ideas to think about unless you had any final thoughts to to share with investors. I think you just gave me the chance to to conclude with oil. I think I'll stop there. Okay. Well, very good. Very good. Thank you so much for for coming on to go through everything that's going on. This was really interesting and and hope to do it again soon so we can see how things start panning out in the future.


I hope so too, Charlotte. Thanks very much. I really appreciated our our journey together today. Oh, me as well. And once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and this is Peter Goodburn. Thank you for watching. If you like this video, make sure you hit the like button and subscribe to our channel. We'd also love to hear your thoughts, so leave us a comment below. [Music]