gold news

 [Music] I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and here today with me is Gary Savage, president at the Smart Money Tracker newsletter. Thank you so much for being here. Great to have you. Well, thanks for having me on, Charlie. Really good to be speaking with you. I think that probably many of our viewers will be familiar with you. But I thought just because it's our first time talking if you could start with a brief introduction to yourself and your background and a little bit about what

you're doing right now in terms of your work. So I've I've been um publishing the Smart Money Tracker newsletter since 2007 I think it was. Um at the now I I do analyze multiple markets. Um I do the stock indexes. I don't do individual stocks on anything. I'm not a I'm not an individual stock picker. Um I do the the ETFs. So I I analyze the stock market ETF or the indexes uh a little bit in the energy markets a little bit in Bitcoin but I am mostly focused on the metals right now and I will be for the

next 2 three four years simply because uh gold last year broke out of that um whatever it was 11 12 13 year base um uh it it held that uh 2000 level I think that broke the manipulation, the banking cartel manipulation in the gold market. And I think that's one of the reasons we we've had such a powerful and explosive rally over the last year and 3 4 months, whatever it's been. Uh and so I'm I'm mostly focused there because I think that's where the big gains are going to be over the next

um 3 four years. Okay. Really good context on yourself. And in alignment with that, we will mostly focus on gold and silver today as well, although we'll see what directions we go in. So, beginning with gold, you've been talking already about how gold has been on this run recently. And we'll start with a broad question, I think, for you. When you look at gold, where is it in the cycle? I know I've heard you speak elsewhere about 8year cycles. So, maybe we begin with that. So, this this is one of the reasons why

I think we've got at least two or three more years to go is we're still fairly early in a new 8-year cycle. Uh the 8-year cycle low occurred in October of 22 or maybe it was 23. I can pull the chart here in a minute. But anyway, um so we're only I think it was 23. So we're only um we're a little over two years, whichever one it was, we're a little over two years into that cycle. I don't know that I've ever seen a cycle B or top shorter than four years. And since we're in a bull phase and a

breakout phase, I kind of think that this cycle would probably won't top the 8year cycle for five to six years. So that's that's probably going to put us out to maybe 2028, 2027, something like that. And I think we'll get our our final blowoff kind of par parabolic bubble top during this eight-year cycle. Um, and I but I think it's too early for that right now. So, I'm I'm looking for I'm still looking for somewhat normal corrections uh that you get, you know, an intermediate

correction about every 20 to 25, maybe 30 weeks if it stretches a little bit. Um, but at some point that'll that'll all break down and we'll we'll transition into the the parabolic phase where we'll probably gain 100% or more in a in a year or less. But I I still think that's several years away. Okay. So, we're we're right now in terms of gold, we're quite far out from the top of the cycle. I think when when you talk about things like that, people always want to know, okay, so what's the price

potential here? So curious to hear about that from you and maybe a little bit more about the the path to that price that we eventually get to. Um so I'm on record. I think $10,000 gold is a realistic um target. We might even go much higher than that. Um the metals market has been suppressed for many many years. Uh and it finally broke that suppression in 2000. That's the reason why we've had such a a powerful and aggressive move up is because the gold especially has been in a it's in a short

squeeze. You know, the the banking cartel got stuck in their shorts and they they've continued to try and fight this and it's just ignited a huge short squeeze that sent go from 2,000 to 3500. Um, the miners I I was kind of thinking the miners would be the last to break the suppression, but I think they're breaking it right or they did during this intermediate cycle. I think they kind of broke free of the suppression. Um, silver um has not broken the suppression yet. I I thought it would be the second to break it, but

it clearly it has not. They they are keeping it locked uh below $35 and they're they're also keeping it blocked below $33. So it'll have to be another intermediate cycle to break that. That's really interesting. So gold, gold you feel has broken out of this manipulation. Gold stocks maybe in the process of doing that right now, but not silver. Any any thoughts on why control has been able to still be exerted over silver? Why is that the one that's lingering there? Yeah, that that's an

easy one. It's just a thinner market. It's much easier to control and uh you know, the rules are just not enforced at the ComX. the banks can just, you know, they can dump I think the uh I think the rule is you can't trade more than 3,000 contracts. Well, you'll see in the middle of the night they'll they'll dump 15 or 20,000 contracts and that's enough to um suppress the market. So, in the morning, you know, you get the market's way down. There's there's no bid and the

and retail traders and hedge funds will panic first thing in the morning. That exacerbates the selling and you know, that's how you control the price. Um, but by the same token, when the suppression does break in silver, the short squeeze, I think, will be much bigger than what it's been in in gold. And and that's I'm I'm also on record that well, $100 is going to be a piece of cake in in silver. And I think probably $500 is is likely uh sometime, you know, maybe in three or four years

from now. Um, now that doesn't you people when I say it's going to be a piece of cake, that doesn't mean it's got to be an easy move to get there. It will be difficult. And as this bull market matures, it's going to get more volatile, more erratic, and more difficult to trade. So, when I say piece of cake, all I'm saying is it's going to get there. Doesn't mean that you're going to have a picnic on on the ride there. It's going to be anything but a picnic, but it'll

it'll get there. Okay. Okay. I think that's a fair statement for sure. So, when you're doing your technical analysis, looking at the charts, how do you account for factors like manipulation, how does that play into it when you look at it? Um, well, when I get an intermediate cycle low, that's it. The the banking cartel doesn't really stop the intermediate cycle um rally, but they can suppress it to some degree. And I think that's what happened with silver during this intermediate cycle cuz gold

went to 3500 but silver I mean it had one day maybe in a day where it broke out above 35 minus the suppression of the silver market I think silver would have gone to 40 maybe even $45 following gold higher but um they they blocked silver at $33 for about 6 weeks and wasted six weeks of that intermediate cycle while gold was going up steadily and the miners were were pretty much breaking free at that time as well. So they just they just managed to suppress it for too many weeks and uh and we just ran out of time

and now I think I'm pretty sure the intermediate cycle in metals has topped. So we're going to have somewhere between four and 8 weeks of of the metals pulling back and correcting. Maybe gold gets back down to 3,000 maybe 2,800. But that that's a good thing. That'll clear sentiment. And right now everybody's extremely bullish. You know, everybody is looking to the moon. And when you get to that that kind of sentiment levels, you're kind of at a a level where you're about to run out of buyers. There's

nobody left. And and this is the point where people are, you know, imagining fundamental reasons, you know, that Asians are buying and that's why price can't go down. You know, that's those are just narratives, but that doesn't stop the profit taking events. there will be profit a profit taking event until we get into the bubble phase and then when that when we get into that then sentiment really doesn't matter cycles don't work anymore and things just go straight up and you know who knows how

long it can last usually it'll from the time it really starts to go it'll be a year to a year and a half but right now I I still think we're in the middle part of this breakout and we should have normal corrections and that resets sentiment and it prepares you for the next leg up so if the top was 3500 00 then I think the next intermediate cycle could take us to 4,000 maybe 4500. Okay. Yeah, I think that that definitely sounds reasonable. And I'd be interested to know so you're you're looking at the

charts and I know a lot of the time when people are doing technical analysis they like to ignore external factors and you're mentioning these narratives just now that are you know people have popular things that they like to talk about from dayto-day. So, how much attention are you paying to those types of narratives that come in about gold price drivers, silver price drivers? Zero. That's meaningless to me. I don't I don't worry about that stuff at all. If I did, I would get caught at tops.

You know, I I would buy into the narrative that price can't go down because of such and such a reason. And then you get you get caught in an intermediate degree correction. And you know those can shave off 15 20% more than that minors and they usually run 6 to 8 sometimes 12 weeks and um you know it's not the end of the bull market but it is kind of painful if especially if you're in leverage if you get caught in an intermediate degree correction and leverage that's very painful. And then

the sentiment is the exact opposite at the bottom of those intermediate cycle lows. people now they're they're listening to the narrative of why gold can never go back up and then they panic sell right at the bottom and then they're shell shocked and they can't buy back and so the the bottom forms and we start to rally and they're still they've still got the memory of that 8 12 week decline and so they're they're not looking up they're they're looking down

like they're expecting more downside and they they've bought into the bearish narrative at this point so they can't buy and usually Usually what happens is it takes multiple weeks before the confidence starts to return. And then generally what happens is right about the time they buy. Then we'll get like a minor daily cycle correction. And so that that reinforces the their feeling that oh we're going back down. And so they they end up buying a little bit a little bit too late. They get dragged

down into a daily cycle low and they panic. They sell at the bottom of that and then we bottom and we continue back up. We make higher highs and and then it takes a little bit more of a rally for them to gain confidence. And and this is how people lose money long in a bull market is they they wait a little too long to buy. They buy right ahead of minor corrections or a major intermediate correction. They get dragged down into those corrections and then they sell at the bottom of them. Yeah, I think it's very easy for people

to get stuck in that kind of trap. So really good to go over that as well. So we have gold essentially heading into uncharted territory, but I see people a lot of the time trying to find analoges to different decades or different periods of time in the past. Do you have anything that you're looking at that you are thinking okay right now looks similar to what was happening at this period of time or is it really this is this is a new scenario right now? Um, well, the markets rhyme, but they're

they're never the same. So, I'm not going to I'm not going to look at the 1970s bull market and assume that this one's going to be exactly the same. It it won't be, but you can you can kind of make some generalizations. Um, you know, one of the rules is the bigger the base, the higher in space. Well, we had a massive base in gold from 2011 till the till it it, you know, finally broke out and a sustained broke out last year in in March. So that's you know what is that a 14 13 14 14year base and that

that's one of the reasons why I think 10,000 is is a realistic target for this. Again it's going to take several years to get there but I I think it will get there. Uh and a big part of that is just the the huge size of that base and uh and then also the uh the degree of suppression in the gold market is going to make this exacerbate it and make it even you know maybe maybe that's the reason it goes to 20,000 instead of 10 is because it's been suppressed for so many years. Okay. And I want to take a

little bit more of a look at silver as well. So we hear a lot of people talking about the gold silver ratio right now. It's very high and that is signaling for some people that there should be this move coming in silver and you've you've kind of talked about your outlook there but do you have any sense of timing on silver because I also hear you know okay we've got the ratio very high but I also hear that silver tends to move toward the end of the cycle which would seem to indicate that it'll take some time for

it to actually move. So what are your thoughts? It does usually. Uh so typically at the towards the end of an intermediate cycle, maybe the last three weeks of an intermediate cycle. That's that's where gold is getting expensive and and traders are starting to look at silver because it's cheaper. And so some of that liquidity will come out of the gold in the mining market market or sectors and flow into silver. And it's a thin market. So it doesn't take much liquidity to really make that the silver

market ignite. and you get some big moves and that's what I was expecting to happen here in silver, but it just didn't happen. Um, so I I think it's going to be the next intermediate cycle. We'll get a breakout above 35 and and maybe we'll get to 50 by the end of the year. Okay, we'll see. I think I think that would definitely be something that people would like to see. So, keep an eye on silver. I think we should talk as well about what's going on in the US stock market. You had mentioned you pay

attention to the indexes. So from a technical perspective, what are you seeing in terms of the outlook there? So stocks put in an intermediate cycle low three weeks ago. Um the bull market in stocks is still pretty pretty tame by you know historical precedence. the last two bull markets gained from the from the bottom. In our case, this would be 2009 um to the top 20 20 fold gains, 20 baggers. We're only the S&P is only at about eight. So, I think we got further to go in the stock market. I I know a

lot of people are thinking that this that we've started a secular bare market. I don't think we have. I think stocks are probably going to come back up and make higher highs. Um, so you know, well, if if you're in 401ks and what I don't think you need to sell yet. I I think we got further to go now. We may have a cyclical bare market. Um, if the war in Europe spreads and and we get a recession in Europe, it'll infect the US. We'll have a cyclical bare market. Um, I don't know that we

that might happen later this year. could happen in 2026, but I don't think the long-term bull market in stocks is over just yet. I think I think we need a true bubble phase, something like what we saw in 2000 where, you know, everybody and their cousin is buying AI stocks or robotic stocks and and things just get so wildly overvalued that, you know, it's just crazy and prices stretch 60 100% above the 200 day moving average. We we haven't seen that at at any of these tops yet. So I think we get

further to go. That's interesting because it did it felt a little bit before like we were getting into that AI bubble where everybody was talking about it and and things like that. So you still see that there could be more to come in terms of that and people could stay in the stock market right now if they if they wanted to. Yeah. I don't I don't think we're I don't think we're starting a secular bare market. Like we started a secular bare market at that top in 2000 and we had nine years of of

up and down two vicious bare markets going nowhere for nine years and then we broke out of that and we started another secular bull market and I think we're still in that bull market. Like I said the last two lasted 20 plus years and they gained you know basically a 20 bagger and we're just we're just not there yet. So I I think we got further to go and uh and and I didn't really, you know, things get a little overheated, but I didn't see bubble behavior. Hey, we'll we'll keep an eye

on that as well. I'm curious, we talked a little bit about the gold and silver mining stocks. So, as we're moving forward, do you see them behaving more following gold and silver or is there a time period where they'll follow what's going on in the stock market? Okay. When we get to the point where we're we're kind of going down there, well, mining stocks don't sell the stock market. They sell gold and silver. So they follow gold and silver. Now I will say this. If if gold is going sideways and

the stock market is having a severe correction, then the selling pressure can infect the the mining stocks and they can go down even though gold isn't really going up. Now if gold is going up, then the mining stocks are going to go up. They're they they're not going to care what the stock market's doing. Um and but for the most part they just they follow gold. Um unless you get into into that specific situation where gold is going sideways and the stock market's having a a big sell-off then then they

can get infected by that. But um uh right now I I think stocks are going up. I think the mining stocks are probably going to go down because I think gold and silver are going to trend down for month or two. Yeah. So, we've got that potential buying opportunity there. We also we also said we'd take a look at what's going on with Bitcoin. So, this is less my area of expertise, but tell me what you see coming there in terms of Bitcoin. I'm curious to know what's happening. So, Bitcoin is the same as

the stock market. It put in an intermediate cycle low three weeks ago. Uh it it kind of almost tested 100,000 several days ago. I kind of expected a little pullback from there and we did get a little pullback but it was pretty small. Didn't amount to much. Uh and then I if I remember right I took a quick glance at it this morning but I think it's breaking through 100,000 this morning. So I've got kind of a a general target maybe in the $120 to $130,000 range for this intermediate uh

rally. So I think I think both stocks and Bitcoin have more weeks to go. It's very rare that an intermediate cycle would top on week three. Even if the um even if the cycle was going to left translate, which would be a bare pattern, they rarely top in less than 6 to 8 weeks. So, you know, even if this was going to roll over, left translate and then come back down and make lower lows like um let's say Bitcoin was going to go below 75,000 stock the S&P was going to go below the low of 3 weeks

ago. I I still think it would rally at least 8 weeks before you you got that top. So, and I don't necessarily think that's the case. I I think we're probably going to make new highs. So, uh, I I think stocks probably have 10 to 15 weeks and Bitcoin 10 to 15 weeks to rally before they roll over and turn back down. Now, that doesn't mean they're not going to have a minor daily cycle correction, which they will probably in a week or two. That'll be somewhat scary. People will think that

the, you know, this is it. The top has come and we're rolling over and heading down, but probably not. it'll probably bottom well above those low April lows and uh and then go on and make higher highs again. Okay. So, for Bitcoin, you mentioned all right now it's kind of moving with the stock market overall. How do you see it? Because I know other people they are looking at it as a kind of a safe haven like a similar to gold type of vehicle. How how do you view Bitcoin? Well, I don't necessarily view it as a

safe haven, but it's a it's a trading vehicle. Um, you know, it's a it's a it's a good asset for speculation. Um, and when it puts in an intermediate cycle low, it's just like anything else. It's a buying opportunity for multiple weeks. And like I said, I think pretty sure Bitcoin put in an intermediate cycle low 3 weeks ago. So, I think you got I think you still got good potential in Bitcoin. I don't think you have to worry about that you're buying too late.

I think you got plenty of plenty of potential here. Um, you know, I can't tell you for sure that if you buy today, you're not going to have a down day or two, but but I am pretty confident saying if even if you buy today and and it's down tomorrow, that five or six or 10 weeks from now, you're going to be up you'll probably be up around 120 130,000. So, I don't think you have to time a perfect entry to make money in either the stock market or Bitcoin right now. Okay. So, we've got stock market

and Bitcoin. These are a couple of opportunities that people can look to get in right now whether or not they time it exactly perfectly. We've got gold and silver looking like they're going to be taking a little bit of a break here for a moment. Any other areas of opportunity that you're seeing right now that you think investors should know about? Well, I don't I don't trade currencies myself. Um, but I it looks to me like we had a false breakdown in the dollar and that the dollar is probably put in an

intermediate cycle low. So I I think this is part of the driver for metals to correct is is we'll probably have a 6 to 8 week rally in the dollar. Uh and then uh as that as that unfolds, I think that's probably one of the drivers for gold and silver and the mining sector to correct for um six to eight weeks while the dollar's rallying. But but the um um the one factor I think important factor in the dollar is it made a lower low. So, it looks like to me that it that we have a failed three-year cycle in the dollar

and generally that means that the rally will not make a higher high and then when we roll over and we get the declining phase of the cycle, it will come down and make lower lows. So, um, right now it's it's a false breakdown, but I think, you know, 20 weeks from now or something like that, I think the dollar is going to be making lower lows than than low it made 3 weeks ago. Interesting. And and do you pay much attention to what's going on in the bond market because there was all that

turmoil at a few weeks ago at this point, I believe. Are you are you tracking that? So, I don't trade bonds at all. It's just not my thing. But I I will say that I'm I'm convinced that we're in a long-term secular bare market for bond prices, bull market for rates. So over time, I think interest rates will be going up. I think we're in an inflationary cycle. I think we will be for multiple years yet. Okay. Okay. And so we're we're taking a break in gold and silver right now as we've mentioned.

Longer term, they're going much higher. Do you see the rest of the commodity sector for the most part rising in in tandem at that at that time in the future? Um, gold can disconnect in the intermediate term a little bit like like right now I think I think it's Bitcoin's turn to go up and gold's turn to to correct. Um, very often it'll kind of do the same thing with oil and and gold. they'll kind of maybe a little bit inversely, but generally speaking, I think um if gold is in a a long-term

bull market, then the commodity sector is also in a long-term bull market, which I think it is. I think I think commodities, the general commodity market bottomed in March of 2020. That was that was the bottom of the commodity bare market. Uh oil went to negative30 or $40, whatever it was. I mean, if that wasn't the bell ringing that the commodity bare market was over, then I don't know what it was. Um, so I I think we're in a a commodity bull market. I think we're in an inflationary

cycle. We're in a war cycle. And so I think uh commodities are going to be um generally moving higher for the next um maybe decade. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. I think that was kind of what I was getting at there. So that makes a lot of sense. Are there any commodity standouts for you in that time period other than gold and silver? Absolutely gold and silver and the reason is because of that base and the breakout from that cup and handle pattern that that's why I am mostly focused on the metals right now. So for

my subscribers um when we're in the advancing phase of of a gold uh cycle then that's that's what we're focused on. we're just tunnelvisioned on gold and and miners and silver during the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle. When we get into a declining phase, then then my advice is is um I stress just don't lose a lot of the gains that you made from from the advancing phase of the gold cycle. If you want to trade the stock market a little bit or you want to trade Bitcoin

a little bit, I'm okay if you take some modest positions. just don't take any big losses. So, so hold on to those gains and then when we get to that next intermediate cycle low, then we step on the pedal hard again and and we use some leverage and we we play the next rally in gold. So, I'm I'm tunnel visioned on the metals. When it's time to take a break in the metals, I'm okay trading other things, but I I really want people to to trade fairly small and just make sure they don't lose any significant

portion of those gains. And we've we've had some really good gains off of this first half of the of the year in metals. Most most of the subscribers, depending on how aggressive they were with their leverage, they're up anywhere from 25 to over 100%. I just don't want people to lose that trying to um double up somewhere else when the the big potentials in the medals and if you can just be patient and wait for the next buying opportunity then we'll do it again in the second half of the year.

Absolutely. And do you find when you're talking to people about having this this type of mindset that allows you to be successful, are people receptive to that or you know it's it's easy to fall back into those those bad patterns. So what what do you tend to see? Well, like you know, I suppose I suspect many retail traders, they they have a gambling addiction, you know, and they want to they want to bet big on every trade. I try and break people of that. There there are times to bet big, but a lot of the times it's not

a time to bet big. Like right now, I think is a time to just try and get a base hit. You know, if you want to get a base hit in Bitcoin or you want to get a base hit in the stock market, I'm okay with that. But the time to swing for a home run, it for me anyway is when gold and silver set and mining stocks set up their next intermediate cycle low. That's when we swing for the fences. Right now, I would prefer that the traders don't swing for the fences because if you swing for the fences, you

can strike out. and and I don't want people striking out and losing that 25% or 100% and then having to start over from scratch again uh during that next intermediate cycle lo. So that's kind of what I try and stress in my newsletter. I try and try and get people to to control greed when it's time to be cautious and we're cautious. Don't swing for the fences. When it's time to swing for the fences, then by all means swing for the fences. We'll hit another home run. It's not that time right now. Not

right now. All right. Well, I feel like we came a little bit full circle in terms of gold, silver, and your strategy. So, I'll let you go unless you had any final thoughts that you would leave investors with. I think we covered it pretty good. Yeah. Just not right now. It's time to be a little patient. Probably I'd say maybe June it'll be time to swim for the fences again. Okay. All right. June is the month that we will look for and it's really not that far away. So that's the

message and thank you so much for coming on to talk. This is really good. I think I learned a lot. Yeah, thanks for having me. Of course. And once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and this is Gary Savage with Smart Money Tracker. Thank you for watching. If you like this video, make sure you hit the like button and subscribe to our channel. We'd also love to hear your thoughts, so leave us a comment below. [Music]