Today Gold and Sliver news 7

 The Treasury market just flashed a signal that hasn't appeared since 1981. Michael Oliver, the man who called gold's move to $2,700 6 months early, is now warning about something far more dangerous. A T-bond collapse so severe that silver won't just rise, it will be violently repriced. $300 to $500 per ounce. Not in years, in months. But here's what almost nobody understands. This isn't about silver at all. It's about what's breaking underneath the entire system and why the smart money is

already. Welcome to Currency Archive. If you've been around long enough to remember when a handshake meant something, when contracts were honored, and when markets actually reflected reality, then you already know something's wrong. Do me a favor. Hit that subscribe button. Not because I'm asking for a favor, but because the financial world you helped build is being dismantled in real time, and you deserve to know how. Also, drop a comment below and tell me, where are you watching this from? New York, Texas,

Arizona, Florida. I want to know where the people who still think for themselves are located. Now, let's get into what Michael Oliver just uncovered. The interview room felt different that day. Daniela Ket, host of the ITM trading show, sat across from a man who had seen market crashes before and lived to warn about the next ones. Michael Oliver, four decades of market analysis. The man who called the 1987 crash when everyone else was celebrating. the technician who built his entire career on one principle. Momentum doesn't lie.

And today he looked concerned. Not the kind of concern you see when stocks drop 2%. The kind of concern you see when someone knows a dam is about to break and nobody's listening to the warnings. Michael, welcome. Daniela began. Gold is marching toward $5,000. Silver just hit $94. What do you make of this runup? Michael leaned forward. This is not a normal bull market, he said quietly. Those seven words carried weight because Michael Oliver doesn't speak in headlines. He speaks in patterns, in

momentum shifts, in structural breaks that happen once every few decades. And what he was seeing now, he had only seen twice before in his entire career. Gold and silver have been moving in an arm wrestling manner, he explained. They shoot up a couple hundred in gold, maybe 10 bucks in silver, then they go sideways for 5 months, bore everyone to death, make people think it's over. Daniela nodded. She knew that frustration. every precious metals investor did. But it's no longer laborious, Michael continued. It's about

to go vertical. Vertical? That word hung in the air like smoke before a fire. Michael wasn't talking about a normal rally. He wasn't talking about gold hitting $6,000 or silver touching 120 and calling it a win. He was talking about something far more dramatic. We're in what we call a move to new reality, he said. It's occurred in other markets before. Copper did it in 2005, quadrupled in just two quarters. They did it in 2007. They broke out of decades long ranges and never looked back. Daniellea's eyes

widened. So, you're saying silver is finally breaking out of that half century range, the $50 ceiling it's hit twice and failed. Exactly, Michael said. And our measurements based on multiple factors, not just silver itself, tell us this move is going to take us to a new reality. And much of it is going to happen in just a few quarters. A few quarters, not years, not a slow grind higher, a violent repricing in months. When does the clock start? Danielle asked. November, Michael replied without

hesitation. The November close. That's when silver broke through a critical ceiling it had been bumping against for years. He pulled up a chart. Not of silver's price, but of silver's relationship to gold. The spread. Look at this, he said, pointing to the line. For years, silver would rise up and hit the same level versus gold, then get smacked back down. It couldn't break above a certain percentage of gold's value. But in November, it broke through, Michael finished. And every

time we've seen silver do this in the past, break through that ceiling versus gold, it went vertical for two quarters afterward. Daniela felt her pulse quicken. So if the clock started in November, and you're talking about two quarters, we're talking about a vertical move that could take your breath away, Michael said. Not just a $90 or $100. We're talking $200, possibly $300 to $500. The room went silent. $300 to $500 per ounce of silver. It sounded insane. It sounded like the kind of prediction that

gets laughed at on financial television, but Michael wasn't laughing. I know how that sounds, he continued. But there's rationale behind it. Multiple angles of analysis, all pointing to the same conclusion. And we think a lot of this is going to occur by the second quarter of this year. Daniela did the math in her head. Second quarter. That meant by June, silver could potentially triple or quintuple in less than 6 months. And gold? She asked. Uh, gold at $5,000 is way too low, Michael said flatly. If you

go back and look at the bull market from 1976 to 1980, it was an eight-fold gain. From 2001 to 2011, another eight-fold gain. He let that sink in. Our bare market low was $1,050 in December 2015. 8-fold from there. Daniela sat back. 8fold. $8,000 gold. And if silver was breaking out versus gold at the same time, right now we're only a little past fourfold, Michael continued. What if gold goes to $8,000 again and silver goes back to where it was in 2011 when it hit $50? Which was what percentage? Danielle

asked. 3.1% of gold's price. Michael said. Right now, we're only at 2%. He paused. And in 1980, when silver first hit $50, it was 6.5% of gold's price. Daniela's calculator was already out. 3% of $8,000 gold. That's $240 silver. 6.5% of $8,000 gold. That's $520 silver. The numbers weren't fantasy. They were historical precedent applied to current momentum. And the momentum was just beginning. The conversation was about to take a darker turn because what Michael Oliver was describing wasn't just about

silver and gold going up. It was about something breaking underneath the entire financial system. Something most people weren't even watching. Daniela leaned in. Michael, you mentioned there's rationale behind these numbers. Why is silver finally breaking free? Is it China? Is it that the manipulation can no longer hold? Michael's expression shifted. All of the above, he said. But the bigger picture, the one people don't talk about, is that we're headed for a monetary crisis. There it was. The real

story. Not just precious metals rallying, not just inflation concerns or geopolitical tension. A monetary crisis. Uh fiat currencies are in jeopardy, Michael continued, his voice steady but firm. And if you haven't been paying attention, the Treasury bond market is on an ambulance stretcher right now. Daniela's eyes widened. The bond market, the foundation of the entire global financial system, the market that dwarfs stocks, dwarfs real estate, dwarfs everything, not just US bonds, Michael

added. Japanese bonds effectively crashed today. UK bonds don't look good. Western world bonds across the board are in trouble. He pulled up another chart. Treasury bond futures the 30 year. Look at this, he said, pointing to the decline. Between 2020 and 2022, T-Bonds crashed in price. Yields exploded. The low was hit in October 2022 at 117 on the futures. Since then, three years of rally attempts, three separate times they tried to recover. Three is usually all you get. Daniela studied the chart.

Each rally attempt weaker than the last. The Fed can cut rates all they want on the short end, Michael explained. But it doesn't affect the long end. And right now we're down in the 114s, even traded into the 113s today, he tapped the screen. Our technical work tells us that three-year process of trying to base is failing. And if you roll over another three points or so below today's low, you could be headed into a bond panic. Those two words landed like thunder. Bond panic. You can't have a US debt

market panic, Michael said quietly. That's a nuclear event. Nuclear event, not hyperbole, not exaggeration. A precise description of what happens when the world's reserve currency's debt market implodes. The Fed knows this, Michael continued. They're the printers and they'll print gold higher because they destroy their own money in the process. He referenced a critical moment from November. The president of the New York Fed, Williams, said in a speech that the Fed is now going to start buying bonds. His excuse,

oh, just to provide more liquidity in the market. Michael shook his head. Look at what happened after that statement. Bonds went dead flat, sideways for two months. The daily and weekly ranges became nothing, like the market was frozen. They were buying, he said, but the rallies couldn't get going. And now you've punched through those recent lows. Daniela understood what he was saying. The Federal Reserve with all its power, all its money printing, all its intervention was losing control. If

they're not in control of that beast, Michael said, "And I don't think they are. It will cause wave effects in other financial markets. Central banks across the Western world will go into panic mode. And that, he concluded, is what drives monetary metals through the roof. Daniela brought up the elephant in the room. "We're about to get a new fed head. Does that change anything?" Michael smiled slightly. Not with humor, with resignation. "He'll print, too," he

said simply. "Our president wants him to print. So, you've got both a president and a Fed that are going to print." "You'd think that's good, right? They'll put out the fire." He shook his head. "No, they're just going to create more M2 money growth. Go to the St. Louis Fed website, pull up M2, look at that money supply growth chart. That's what gold is the other side of," Michael explained. real money. They can't inflate it. They can't manipulate it. And silver,

Daniellea asked. They tried to keep a lid on silver, Michael said. And usually when somebody tries to manipulate a market for too long, all they're doing is creating compression. So when it finally breaks through their barrier, it goes even more violent on the upside than it would have otherwise because it's been held back for too long. It has a panic on the upside. Daniela showed him an article headline she'd pulled up during the conversation. Sell America, US dollar. Treasury prices tumble and

gold spikes as globe flees US assets. Michael nodded slowly. The cell America trade is in full effect, he confirmed. Everyone's going to blame Trump. But frankly, the underlying fundamentals have been broken for decades. It's the ongoing inflation in the money units, he continued. We're not the Vhimar Republic, but we're doing the same thing in miniature form. Print, print, print. Prices of everything go up. Bread, stocks. Some things go up more than others. Gold, for example. If you owned

gold for the last 10 years, you beat the S&P, but it's all false, all distortions, and you can't keep playing that game forever, Michael warned. Eventually, you have an accident. Or really, a consequence like what's happening in the government bond market right now. A consequence so huge, he said, that it causes doubt among everyone, academicians, the voting public. But they're going the other way. When nothing works, Michael continued, and your retirement account suddenly wipes out all of last year's gains in

the next couple months. Then you as a person in the street ask, "What is this?" You become uncertain. He didn't finish the sentence. He didn't need to. Because everyone who lived through 2008 knew what happened when emotion entered financial markets. Except this time, Michael Oliver had been watching something most analysts completely missed. Not just the price of silver climbing, not just gold making new highs every week. He was watching the behavior of the rally itself, the rhythm, the

pattern, the way doubt crept in, then got obliterated. And what he noticed told him something critical about what was coming next. "Do enough people understand the reality?" Danielle asked. "That if they don't own gold right now, they're in danger." Michael's answer was blunt. "No, they will, but they're not waking up yet, especially in this part of the world." He mentioned something that made him shake his head. "My son looks at internet comments for me. I'm

tired of that kind of stuff. But right now, the chatter from analysts online is, "Sell silver, short it. It's the top. You can't go any further." Daniela had heard the same thing, even from some professionals. What they're doing, Michael explained, is looking at an arithmetic chart, a simple dollar chart of silver. They see it went from $40 or $50 a few months ago, and it doubled. So, in a normal world, you'd say, "That's pretty good. I'm getting out." He paused. We're

arguing it's just begun. Daniellea had literally just hosted a webinar where this exact question came up repeatedly. I did a session with Frank Gustra and Rick Rule, she said, and people kept asking if they should sell their silver and put it all into gold. Michael nodded knowingly. Here's what we tell our subscribers, he said. Forget the day-to-day swings. If you see a 10 to 15% drop and it looks terrible on a daily chart, buy it anyway. He let that sink in. Go back over the last several

months. Every time you saw a 10 or 15% drop, if you bought instead of selling, you're way ahead of the game. Somebody knows that, he added, because somebody's buying, not just somebody, bodies, plural. But the doubt remained thick in the market. And Michael had noticed something fascinating about how this rally was unfolding. Before silver hits a new high, he explained, "There's always a cap. Gold did the same thing back in April. Shot up, then went sideways for 5 months. Doubters

everywhere. It didn't break down, but they kept a lid on it. Then you break through. Then in October, another pause, but that pause was only a couple months, shorter time frame. Then another jolt upward. Same pattern in silver. He continued, "You had a whole year-wide pause at 35 through late 2024 into early 2025. A whole wasted year. People bored to death, doubting everything. Then it broke through, jolted up another 10 bucks." Daniela saw where he was going. "It's a layered process," Michael said.

But here's what I noticed today specifically. We jolted up to $95 this morning. Then they spent the whole day selling against that high, dropping it back to $93. Except instead of that lasting 3 months like before or even 2 weeks. Now you can measure those pullbacks in hours. Hours. The compression was accelerating. The rhythm was speeding up. Things are speeding up. Michael confirmed. And I suspect the Treasury bond event we've been discussing, that's possibly the headline crisis that triggers the next

phase. He referenced historical surges in silver. In 1979 to 1980, silver went up five-fold in 5 months. September 2010 to April 2011, it went up two and a half times in 7 months. But here's the key detail everyone forgets," Michael said, leaning forward. In the middle of each of those explosions, there was a stumble, a correction. Daniellea's attention sharpened. In January 2011, silver was in the 20 plus range. It had a monthly reversal, made a high, then closed down on the month. Price chart

technicians said, "That's it. Reversal. It's over." What happened next? The next month, Michael said, it blew the lid off even more violently than before. A midpoint stumble. Not a failure, not a top. Just a shakeout in the middle of a much larger explosion. If this Treasury bond event continues for another day or two, Michael said carefully, you're going to panic the Fed in a way you've not seen before. Daniela felt the urgency in his voice. You're talking about an imminent event. Days?

Yes, Michael confirmed. Days? And that could get us to the midpoint of this 6-month swing in silver, maybe into February, but with headlines. Then he mentioned something unexpected. The Supreme Court is deciding on tariffs, he said. They don't know which way they're going to go, but I have a strong suspicion they're going to say no, Daniela raised an eyebrow. And they're seeing this broader than just a legal case, Michael explained. They know what's happening in the world right now.

They could step in and stop the tariffs and maybe temporarily stop the panic selling of US assets. If that happens, he continued, but after a panic first, don't be shocked if silver goes vertical for several days. How vertical? Maybe it doesn't pause until it hits 120 or 130. Maybe it has a couple of limit up days, 10% per day on the comics. Limit up when the exchange has to halt trading because the move is too extreme. There could be a point, Michael said, where if the Supreme Court makes that decision, it

temporarily puts a hose on the fire, it won't ultimately stop it because there are far bigger things underway. But that could be one of those events where silver goes berserk first. Stock market gets gut kicked another day or two. Treasury bonds move into what could be called a panic sell-off. And at that point, he concluded, the non-owners of silver or the people who shorted it suddenly think, "Uh-oh, I've been on the wrong side." Or worse, he added, "They're stuck in short positions

and silver goes limit up. They can't even get out." Daniela could picture it, the chaos, the scrambling. "We could be headed for that kind of speed, literally at the time of this interview," Michael said. She brought him back to the big picture. So, within the next 6 months, you wouldn't be surprised if silver hit anywhere between $300 and $500. Michael didn't hesitate. With a jiggle in the middle, yes, no doubt there will be a correction that scares people, even the ardent silver bulls.

And gold would be way north of $5,000 at that point. He circled back to his earlier math. If gold hits $8,000 and does its normal eight-fold move and silver goes back to its 2012 2011 spread relationship of 3.1% of gold's price, he didn't need to finish. 3% of $8,000 is $240. And he had mentioned another factor. Eric Spratt, a friend of mine, has been making an argument in his speeches. If you take the money supply and factor that into silver's price in 1980, then look at money supply growth since then.

or do the same for 2011. You come up with numbers well into the couple hundred just to match the real buying power silver had at those two peaks. The math worked from multiple angles. Historical spread relationships, money supply inflation, momentum patterns, all pointing to the same target zone. $300 to $500 silver wasn't a guess, it was a convergence. Daniela knew there was one more layer to this conversation, one more truth that needed to be said before the interview ended. Because all of

this, the bond panic, the silver explosion, the $8,000 gold prediction, it was all a symptom, not the disease itself. Michael, one last point before we wrap," she said. "And this is the most important of them all." She paused. We were talking offline about how all of this is a distraction. The real issue is that the money people have in the bank, the cash in their wallets, their US dollar bills, Canadian dollar bills, whatever they're holding, it's dying every day. Their purchasing power is

dying. She looked directly at him. Do you feel more people are understanding this? Michael's response was measured. No, he said they're seeing the effects, the consumer price effects, but they're not understanding the cause. He shifted the conversation to something most people weren't watching. Commodities. We analyze the commodity complex closely, he said. And as far as we're concerned, Kamar, commodities are starting their next bull, much like the 2020 to 2022 period when the Bloomberg commodity

index doubled. I think we're about to start another one. Oil's the lagard, he continued. And it's the one where President Trump said he's going to keep gas prices down. Michael smiled slightly. Our technical analysis of oil, forget all the headlines. The fundamentalists are saying it's going to $40. Fine. I love that. They'll get ambushed. The technicals suggest that just a few dollars above where we're trading right now, less than a handful of dollars above $60, you're going to

trigger some levels that could violently move oil out of this range. Probably on the first thrust, we get to the mid90s, a 50% increase from recent prices. Daniela understood the implication. That would jolt the average person when they pump gas and see the numbers clicking upward, she said. Exactly, Michael agreed. That's how most people see inflation, not through money supply growth, even though they should. He painted a picture across generations. Every decade there's about an 80 to 90%

increase in the money supply. He explained what's going on. Decay in the money unit over one very long human lifetime. The room went quiet for a moment. That awareness, people don't look at that factor, Michael said. They look at CPI and things like that, but those will be impacted by the increase in money supply. So when the Fed prints more to save the bonds, gold will go berserk because it's real money. Half the world already realizes that, he continued, and they're starting to shift

back toward gold. The Western world is the lagard on that issue. But if they get into a crisis, he said, they might finally say, hey, this hasn't been working. Maybe we should go back. Daniela brought up the alternative some people were pushing. They're going to look at stable coins, though, right? Michael shook his head. No opinion on that, but we have a negative view on Bitcoin. He mentioned to their call from months earlier. We were negative before it had its recent crash, and I think

it's going to at least $60,000, probably sometime in the first half of this year. Daniela did the math. Bitcoin had been at $127,000 at its peak. That would be a total wipeout for anybody in Bitcoin over the last several years, Michael said flatly. Cut more than in half. And I think any talk of crypto being an alternative money unit will go out the door. Already, he added, the crypto people are starting to recognize it. They're saying, look at gold. Look at gold. The conversation had come full circle. Back

to real money. Back to what had survived every currency collapse, every empire's fall, every monetary experiment in human history. Gold and silver. Dianiela thanked him for his time. Michael Oliver, this was a fascinating discussion. I'm so glad we connected and made this happen. Please come back soon. We're going to keep tracking this. Thank you, Daniela, Michael replied. You're going to have an exciting year. I think so, she smiled. She asked where people could find more of his work. MSA,

momentum structural analysis, Michael said. We examine all four major asset categories: bonds, stock markets, commodities in general, monetary metals, and foreign exchange. Ask for some samples, he offered. As the interview wrapped, Daniela turned to the camera. To everyone watching at home, everyone who had made it this far. As always, I invite everyone watching. If you haven't already owned gold or silver, you need to catch up here. And if you already own some, maybe you need to add more. Reach

out to my colleagues at ITM Trading. It's a free strategy session. She paused one more time. We will see you all soon. These are exciting times. But beneath the excitement was something else, a warning. Because Michael Oliver had spent the entire interview explaining something most people still didn't grasp. This wasn't just about making money in precious metals. This was about survival in a monetary system that was breaking in real time. The Treasury bond market teetering on the edge. The

Federal Reserve losing control. Fiat currencies across the Western world showing cracks. And gold and silver aren't the only assets that couldn't be printed, manipulated, or inflated away starting to reflect that reality. The people who understood this early would be positioned correctly. The ones who waited for the headlines for the panic for the Supreme Court decision or the Fed emergency meeting or the bond market freeze. They would be the ones scrambling, paying $120 for silver when

they could have bought at $93, paying $6,000 for gold when they could have bought at $5,000, or worse, watching from the sidelines as their cash, their bonds, their retirement accounts denominated in dying currency evaporated in purchasing power. Michael's final words echoed. Gold is real money. They can't inflate it. And in a world where central banks were about to print like never before, where bond markets were cracking, where the entire monetary system built after World War II was being stress tested to destruction, real

money was about to matter more than it had in 50 years. The interview ended, but the crisis Michael Oliver described that was just beginning. And the clock he mentioned, the one that started ticking in November when silver broke through its ceiling versus gold, that clock was still counting down toward the midpoint stumble he warned about toward the vertical move that would take people's breath away toward $300 to $500 silver and $8,000 gold. Not in some distant future, but in the next handful

of months. The question wasn't whether it would happen. Michael had seen this pattern before in copper, in lead, and silver itself during prior surges. The question was simpler. who would be positioned when it did and who would be left holding paper promises in a world that was rediscovering the value of real assets. The answer to that question was being written right now in every decision, every ounce purchased or ignored, every day someone chose to wait or chose to act. History doesn't wait

for permission, and neither does a monetary crisis.