Today Gold and sliver news 120

Despite my advancing years, Elijah, my uh lifting power has gone from $5,000 in a matter of weeks to $6,000. So, I'm sure I'm getting stronger or something something is moving. You're watching Silver News Daily. Subscribe for more. >> The Federal Reserve just pulled the trigger on a rate cut in the middle of an inflation storm, and the fallout is already tearing through global markets. But this isn't just another monetary move. This is the spark that could ignite a full-blown collapse in the US dollar. And silver, silver could go absolutely vertical. Whispers from deep inside the options market are getting louder. And what they're saying is hard to ignore. $80, $85 calls for February are being scooped up like lifeboats on a sinking ship. Insiders aren't betting on a rally. They're preparing for a detonation. A $1,000 silver explosion isn't a fantasy anymore. It's a scenario traders are actively positioning for. Why now? Because the gold to silver ratio is breaking down in real time, collapsing toward levels we haven't seen in decades. The HVF model, built on years of precision technical analysis, is flashing a massive buy signal with targets most investors would have laughed at just months ago. But this isn't months ago. This is now. And silver is already surging to all-time highs in the cash markets. Meanwhile, the dollar index is teetering at the edge of a cliff, threatening to break below multi-year support. If it goes, it's not just a drop. It's a death spiral. And here's the part they don't want you to see. The system is cornered. Supply is tapped out. Demand is ramping like never before. Central banks are boxed in. And institutional money is moving fast. What we're witnessing might just be the opening act of the biggest silver run in history. Stay with me because what's coming next could change everything you thought you knew about silver. >> Well, I I want to report that uh you know, despite my advancing years, Elijah, my uh lifting power has gone from $5,000 uh shoulder press uh in a matter of weeks to $6,000. Uh so, I'm sure I'm getting stronger or something something is moving. Something is moving with great vigor uh and it's making me smile. Uh unfortunately it's associated with quite negative things generally for uh the currency which I'm sure we'll be we dipping in uh to now. But the first thing we have to say is happy uh silver bullet train ride day. Um it is absolutely ripping. Uh I think last time we checked we're approaching 64 on the cash markets. I think you may even have got higher on the future markets. Uh the big thing I I would choose to talk to I mean the question I always ask myself if being brought on to a show is what can I say that most people won't refer to or might not say that adds value for someone who's already a participant. I'm imagining your audience who's watching us that has seen how we've been warning that this is coming and I've mentioned a couple of times I'm the biggest silver bull uh out there. There are many people that are saying you should already be pivoting into oil or oil stocks and various other things. And I I'm the guy who said, "Listen, you married Jacel Bunin. You stop looking over the fence at those other ladies. Uh you you you're you know, you've you've won the lottery." And uh in that sense um without looking to uh poke Tom Brady and I or anyone else, you're in the best monetary assets right now for what is a fiat debasement cycle for which the only capital preservation is a monetary asset that holds value regardless of the economic environment. Which means in an environment where we're in the convexity down phase, suddenly very quickly, Ernest Hemingway's bankruptcy curve as I like to call it slowly at first and suddenly very quickly. You are at that suddenly very quickly. And I think on your show I was warning that we're in this the slippery uh uh slope side and I had that little diagram. It's kind of like a paying off a mortgage curve. Um and we're in the suddenly very quickly phase and these are your uh these are your monetary metals and this particular one over gold has got a specific supply constraint added into it which is you know verging on real real problems on above ground supply. So it has an accelerance. And if I can add one last uh point to all of this, we are talking, you and I, the day after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in an environment where the average since 2020, the average inflation over the last 5 years has been 4%. You're very close to 3% currently. and you got a rate cut into that environment with also not QE uh liquidity provisions being announced for the banking system where there is repo market stress already in. So cutting rates in a fiat debasement gain. There is no sweeter spot for the likes of uh silver uh ounces and gold ounces it has to be said but particularly silver. Uh so my value ad point is uh the gold silver ratio. When do you get a pause potentially because this is a ripper at the moment. Uh when are you likely to get a pause? So if I may Elijah and I hand back to you but I would like to take you to the gold silver uh ratio chart if but let you have a chance to come back at me after that. >> The dollar's collapse doesn't start with headlines. It starts with trust. And right now that trust is eroding at the core. When the Federal Reserve cut rates again this December, despite inflation still running hot, they sent a message to the world. Stability is no longer the priority. Liquidity is. And the moment that decision hit, the DXY, America's benchmark dollar index, began unraveling. It's now hovering around 98, down nearly 8% year to date with multiple failed attempts to reclaim 100. That's not just a pullback. That's a breakdown in confidence and the consequences are rippling outward fast. A weaker dollar hits everything. But it supercharges hard assets. Commodities across the board are responding, but silver is leading the charge. Why? Because silver isn't just any asset. It's the monetary metal that thrives when fiat currencies begin to falter. Unlike gold, which central banks have been quietly accumulating for years, silver has been largely overlooked until now. And that oversight is rapidly flipping to panic as the dollar begins its slide into structural weakness. See, when a reserve currency falters, the world looks for alternatives. In previous cycles, they looked to gold. This time, they're looking at both. And silver, with its dual role as industrial powerhouse and monetary hedge is positioned to outperform. With each tick down in the dollar, silver's trajectory steepens. And the more the Fed cuts into inflation, the more urgent the exit from fiat becomes. This is how dollar spirals start. Slow at first, then sudden. And as the spiral picks up speed, so does silver's vertical climb. And to to jump into that uh solid statement that you made and concur, we are we are most certainly in what I'd call disorderly descent uh phase of the gold silver ratio and we'd drawn a we we typically put it in a a pink box. the fact that for quite an extended period we'd been rangebound on the gold silver ratio and we weren't going to be getting what we wanted until we really let go of that range and we determined it very much along the lines of a 72 stroke 75 to 95. It was kind of a 20 uh a 20 silver ounces to a gold ounce range. Uh and the midpoint we had at about 84. And the big big key move here is that you've really broken the box. We even had this fake break out here. Um, and that got knocked back in. And since then, it's been very hard down, hard, hard down. And the the level I want to bring to everybody's attention here is the 65. I think we're going to have a 65 run. We're still in that uh we're on a 3-weekly, a bit of an odd time frame. You can look at it fortnightly as well uh or even monthly. Uh I just wanted to see the separation in the candles. So I ended up on a rather bizarre time frame here. But it doesn't matter. The data is the same. We we are uh at approaching a level that's very important. The absolute low here was 62. So that dot there is 62. This was uh around 64. Now this was these are all key seinal moments. We are talking about economically seinal let me try to get that word out seinal moments. Uh down here you'll see was just mid 2016 early mid 2016. That was the Shanghai cord China crisis when China's property market first start to be exposed for the massive amount of borrowing that they created to keep heat in the economy after the 2008 uh crash. So we had during 2008 a very dead west and China was everything and Australia skipped through the GFC far more smoothly than the rest of the world on account of selling commodities to China. You might remember that and then suddenly China did the subprime crash of its own but the whole world got around it and that was a key event. That's when we dip down on the gold silver ratio. We started to have the uptick from gold. It was around 1,064 low at that point. It was a localized low. People forget this and as it was on gold silver ratio. So that 65 is very interesting. You ran 64 there. Then of course 2021 highs for gold and silver that was a good surge that was again uh the point here. So this is a very important level generally it's a very important level. Uh so we are coming and I expect us to breach 65. But my warning for people, particularly people that might be utilizing a bit of leverage and might be have an account that >> something big is happening in the options market and it's not retail traders making noise. It's the whales. Over the past few weeks, insiders have been quietly loading up on February silver call options at the 80 and 85 strike prices. Now consider this. When those calls were placed, silver was still trading in the 50s. Today, with spot prices already breaching $65 to $67, those contracts have gone from far out of the money to suddenly deep in the money. That's not just good timing, that's precision. And it's exactly the kind of behavior you see when major players know something is coming. Options like these aren't casual bets. These are leveraged positions designed to profit from explosive upside, the kind of moves that catch the public completely offguard. And the volume is staggering. Open interest has surged to levels we haven't seen in years, pointing to an expectation, not a hope, of a price event so sharp, so vertical, it forces a revaluation of the entire silver market. This isn't just speculation. This is coordinated positioning. Why February? Because that's the window. That's when multiple forces collide. Physical delivery stress, mining output bottlenecks, the next Fed meeting, and a fiscal calendar that's already straining under deficits. And with every passing day, the price climbs closer to those strikes. The smart money isn't waiting for confirmation. They're already in. And if they're right, the breakout we're seeing now is just the beginning. The market is flashing its warning in real time, but only those watching closely can see what's about to happen next. Just before we get going, we just launched the official Silver News Daily Telegram. To kick things off, we're running a 10oz silver giveaway. Yes, real physical silver, not a voucher, not digital credits, actual bullion. This Telegram will be our new home for real-time silver discussions, market insights, collection picks, and everything precious metals. It's where the community truly comes alive. Here's how to enter the 10oz silver giveaway. Be subscribed to Silver News Daily on YouTube. Turn on the notification bell, comment 10O giveaway on three separate videos. Be an active member of the Telegram group and say hi. Once we hit 500 active Telegram members, we'll pick one lucky winner to receive 10 ounces of silver shipped directly to you. So, get in early, stay active. >> Absolutely. Singing right now. Uh, great. Congratulations. But be careful. Um, what I suspect is going to happen is you'll probably run certainly, I would imagine that low, the 65 itself, which is the red line, and then I imagine you could even run this low, which dropped to 62. But at some point you might get a bounce which I'd call a continuation pattern. It might be a flag. It could be instead uh a rising wedge. Uh but in the long run or let me draw that more neatly. Sorry for that sketchy line. Let's do straight lines so it looks better. Uh you could get uh a little bounce of a rising wedge. So the only people who are going to get hurt in this are people that are chasing the top. Uh, so after it runs 65, it would be a bad time to go whailing in with disproportionate size and that's more the kind of a mistake and a a newbie or an intermediate would might make that if you're trading with leverage. So there's a possibility that doesn't mean there has to be uh at all. This might be so disorderly bad that the spill just continues and it's just a complete runaway. It depends what news flow you get. E- levels can be run. I'm just saying the possibility is higher that you get some form of reversal just after the 65 to the 62 period which is the low here. My suspicion of most likely is you make a a slightly lower low than here and you have some small I don't think it's going to be significant. Does this affect a stacker? Not particularly. Just buy on the rally. You might get a tiny pullback if you if you've got new cash for investing in silver. Overall, the next level for us generally for me is you're going to meet 32 and you will then be at this zone here. Why is 32 significant? These these numbers I'm throwing out 65 and 32. We we spoke on your channel before about the possibility of this being a head and shoulder. So that's the Shanghai accord there. This was the blowoff high in the gold silver ratio. when we broke out here, we incorrectly so we must own where we we thought listen uh if we have a demand destroying event, it's possible that you could break uh higher when you broke higher and that you could go higher on the gold silver ratio before you got the down move because this shoulder has now got quite big but it turned down almost as we said it and started to reverse violently. So, we're still in the possibility of a messy. I'm not going to tell you this is a textbook head and shoulder. Some imperfect patterns work brilliantly. Some ideal almost diagrammatic ones fail. So, you don't have this perfect beauty uh in a pattern that always guarantees you an outcome and a messier one not to. But, uh the move here they is is very very violent. And the target from that head and shoulder. So, why the 32? You'll see these projections come from the high down to that same 65 neckline. So we are projecting and interestingly it gives uh a low of 32 and then when you revert back to the 2011 high. So remember targets are typically again where you might get continuation. So I'm just trying to warn people at what values of gold silver ratio might >> the most telling signal in this unfolding silver storm isn't the price, it's the ratio. The gold to silver ratio is in freefall. And for anyone who's been in this market long enough, that's the clearest sign we're heading into a historic revaluation. Earlier this year, the ratio hovered between 90 and 95, meaning it took nearly 95 ounces of silver to equal the value of 1 ounce of gold. But today, that ratio has collapsed to around 65, and it's still falling. This isn't just a technical breakdown. It's a shift in perception, a sign that silver is being revalued relative to gold at an accelerating pace. Throughout history, every major silver bull run has been accompanied by a violent contraction in this ratio. In 1980, it dropped below 20. In 2011, it touched the low30s. And now, with gold breaking above $2,300 and silver surging past $65, the path is being cleared for a return to those extreme levels. Analysts are already floating targets of 32. And in scenarios of extreme monetary debasement, even single digits aren't off the table. At a ratio of 32, if gold pushes toward $4,000 or $5,000, as some projections suggest, silver would be trading at $125 to $150 per ounce. And that's still conservative compared to what some models are projecting. But this isn't just about historical analoges. The compression is being driven by something deeper. Silver is finally being recognized not just as a lagard, but as the outperformer in a system under stress. The gold to silver ratio isn't just a metric. It's a signal. A signal that the tide is turning and that silver's time as the underdog is over. When this ratio snaps, silver doesn't walk, it runs. And right now, it's already gaining speed. >> You get slight pullback periods. The running of the 65 to the 62 possibly. And then here again, and the interesting part about this, let's just say they're both rising wedges that you know that rally before falling. I don't think they'll be necessarily huge or vast, but that run will also bring you back to the valuations we met in gold and silver at the last bull high of 2011, which was 1920 uh 1,927 uh gold. And don't forget, silver was uh almost $50 then. It made 49 um in uh 2011 and on some exchanges you may have even had a technical trade at 50. So uh gold is a lot higher now. It's 4,200. So you can only imagine what silver will be down here at those levels. You can do the math. So a trajectory uh for the gold silver ratio might look something like that and then up and then further down. Now I've show shown up on your show many times as my justification for being the single largest bull on silver uh there is despite others saying you know really should be looking at as I've mentioned going to oil and others. This chart on the gold silver ratio has come from much lower lows. We've previously had 15 uh as standard levels for lengthy periods sometimes even single digits tens etc. And it's part of the financialization of everything era of way back uh that came in kind of uh postfer and everything that we'd had such high numbers for the gold silver ratio. So, we've also speculated that if you get to the 32 level. So, I'm I'm now building narrative on top of narrative. There's quite a bit of ifs and points of failure in here, but assuming we get there. So, we have our bounce here. We rally, we come here, we have some form of continuation, you will then have a far larger, and this is you sometimes get this nestling effect of head and shoulders. Uh you'll have a far larger this will all be ahead. You'll potentially have a shoulder rally here. um at the 32 and then we are in another reversal structure which if done takes you to a measured 8.22 that's a single digit. So I've shown up and said the overreaction of markets will potentially see you at a singledigit gold silver ratio and at a point where gold will be a lot lot higher. So in terms of scenario casting I've taken you a bit far into the future here. Um, you shouldn't be counting too many chickens before they hatch. Um, but this is the big guide plan of how things really, really get insane for valuation for this metal uh over here. Let me hand back to you. >> Francis Hunt's HVF model isn't your average technical tool. It's a battle tested framework designed to catch explosive asymmetric breakouts before they happen. And right now it's pointing directly at silver with a target so aggressive most mainstream analysts wouldn't dare say it out loud. $333. That's the figure. And it's not based on emotion or wild speculation. It's built on structural chart patterns, volatility compression, and the kind of breakout behavior that precedes massive moves in commodities. The current setup in silver is textbook HVF. You've got a tight volatility squeeze, breakout through key resistance, sustained momentum on increasing volume, and now confirmation. The model isn't just flashing green. It's screaming that silver has already entered phase two of the move with the next leg aiming straight for triple digits. Francis has identified key continuation zones and the next target on the ladder is $91. After that, the model opens wide, $128, then $333. And in these types of vertical moves, it doesn't take years. It can take weeks. What makes the HVF model so compelling is that it's built on real market psychology. It captures when sellers are exhausted, when buyers are stepping in with force, and when the market is entering what Hunt calls a disorderly advance. We're in that zone now. And with whales piling into options, physical demand outpacing supply, and the dollar breaking down, all the ingredients are lining up exactly as the HVF model predicted. This isn't a drill. The pattern is playing out in real time. And if past HVF signals are any indication, this is the kind of setup that doesn't come around often. When it does, it tends to leave a trail of disbelief in its wake until the numbers hit. So I I expect silver is going to continue until we've uh its upside in terms of the move that we're seeing on the gold silver ratio here. So until we've got through the 65 and probably even tested the previous low which could mean we technically run it. So somewhere there between um 50 uh what was that low? I think I said 62. Let's just double check it. The the low on the gold silver 62. And I think you can still run the technical level. There's a habit of it. Call it the stop loss being run. Not many people trade the the gold silver ratio, but typically levels just get run as well to test the load. So once they're in that kind of momentum, there's a tendency to overshoot. So we we are going further up short term. It's I'm not closing my leverage longs. I just don't think it's anymore the best entry point. uh you would have to go exceedingly small with very deep stops on the basis that it there you might get some more upside but then there could be degrees of pullback of some scale that could occur. uh but I do also want to highlight some other anecdotes which is not technical uh and that is that uh we've uh seeing on the call or the number of people are commentating that the uh calls at the 80 and 85 strikes for February delivery are uh contrast so that's not very far out that's 2 and 1/2 months 2 months between two and two and a half months I'm not exactly sure when in February though I would need to check at for the futures the next delivery date. Maybe someone can put that in the comments for us below. Uh so everyone gets their heads up. Uh but you're you're around 2 months at most 2 and 1/2 months. Um and and they're buying calls with an 80 and 85 strike. the volume on that has gone up immensely which is really interesting uh for us because in our more traditional uh silver setup we've called for so let's show the actual silver chart it's almost uh remiss of us that it's taken this long in the interview to get to that point um that in in our viewpoint we are making the footsteps we have an interim level target on our HVF method that's 91 uh now were that to happen those 80 and 85 calls would be in the money. So people have been buying whilst in the 50s we really really uh short-term I would say possibly with no more than two months green months in them uh and aggressively was very far out of the money calls on the silver market at uh the value of the strikes of 80 and 85. And when you see volume, uh, forgive me for mentioning 911, but I I tend I refer to the airlines being shorted, it's often there's some news or information, uh, people with confidence. You know, when people are backing something with big money, it's usually wealthy people who are well informed or potentially even insiders. So uh you know make of it what you will but I find that an interesting anecdote on the fundamental side going back to the technical opinions which is our four >> silver has already done what many thought was impossible it's shattered its all-time high as of mid December the spot price has broken through the $65 barrier with moments where it even pierced $67. That makes this more than just a rally. This is a confirmed breakout and the trajectory is parabolic. Forget the resistance levels. They've been bulldozed. What we're witnessing now is a vertical market where sellers step back, liquidity dries up, and prices climb in sudden violent bursts. And here's the part that should make every investor sit up. This move didn't come out of nowhere. It's the culmination of months of buildup, surging industrial demand, chronic supply deficits, relentless physical buying, and a growing sense that the monetary system itself is unraveling. Silver has risen nearly 130% year-to date with a staggering 30% gain in just the past month. These aren't normal numbers. This is what happens when a market that's been suppressed for years finally breaks free. Even more telling is what's happening beneath the surface. Cash markets are tightening fast with premiums spiking as physical metal becomes harder to source. Comx inventories are being drawn down and whispers of delivery stress are circulating. Futures are lagging behind physical prices, showing clear signs of disconnect. And in a market as thin and volatile as silver, once momentum takes over, price moves tend to overshoot wildly. This breakout is not a blowoff top. It's not the end of the move. It's the beginning of a repricing event. And the way this market is moving, the next stop isn't just $70. It's triple digits. The fuse is lit. The detonation has started. And if you're still waiting for confirmation, you've already missed it. >> Okay. So, here's that silver chart that we were promising to show you. Uh, and as I say, apologies for taking so long into the chat to actually get it up because it is the main event. Um, we've got a 333 target. Uh you can see it pointing to that over there. You are in between the interim levels. Uh we had an intram at 40. You had a pause and a pullback and we expect it to rip to the next level. Uh so you go from these are our levels. Intram level one in level two and then full target. At each of these levels there's typically a pullback and a bit of churn and some time elapses. Con on how much? But in between that it's like a horse and fences. it it gets a full gallop uh to make a jump uh and this is a level so you tend to lose a bit of speed just before maybe struggle uh have a pause and this is in and around 91 so I do think you know if we do bounce at 65 I don't think it's going to be the the most uh you know lengthy and protracted uh and it is possible for us to spill right through so we'll see potentially 91 run here at this inim and you overshoot normally which could technically mean you might get a touch at a three digit and then rejection. So there is such a big round number that's never been traded of course as we're making all-time highs now for the first time in silver. There's such a big number at 100 waiting there. So it's tempting to think you might actually get that test that's going to be headlines. By the way, the Bank of International Settlements and the Financial Times are both tying. So the B said gold uh and silver precious metals are a bubble and associated it to the stock market. I'm going to say they're completely different things. The stock market is in hypervaluation by most measures but that's because debased fiat needs a place to hide and some of it has gone into the stock market. It is overvalued by many many measures. Gold and silver in terms of their long-term far bigger cycle are not in a bubble. They are not things that tend to get in a bubble. The fiat and debt debasement is the bubble. And in actual fact, um you are going to go a lot lot higher on a far grander cycle. This one's going to be the gift that keeps giving long after people can believe it's true. Uh because you know, just think of what I'm saying to you and have been saying for a very long time. $333 as a target. By the way, this pattern triggered. We had a squeeze within a squeeze. We call that a primer. Right there was our initial break at $25. That was the last time we were going to see 25 and then the main pattern broke at 30. You can see these green numbers 30 and 25. Since then, you have been in an absolute rip and you're going to my opinion four or three digits number. I think there's a chance. I'm not saying it will happen and that's my 50 or more percent but some of those calls may in fact end up in money which is going to be very good time for stackers if in the next 2 months you continue to pick off sixes sevens and then cross eights and you start to get to this targets these targets that would be a >> there's a hard truth silver investors have had to live with for years there simply isn't enough primary silver production to meet demand unlike gold which is mined intentionally over 70% % of the world's silver comes as a byproduct of mining other metals like copper, zinc, and lead. That means when silver demand explodes, as it is right now, supply can't just ramp up to match it. The system is structurally inelastic. And that bottleneck is becoming a major flash point in this unfolding surge. Let's put the numbers on the table. Global mine production in 2024 was around 820 million ounces. This year, it's forecast to reach 835 million, less than a 2% increase. Meanwhile, industrial demand alone is projected to surpass 700 million ounces. And that doesn't even include investment demand, which is spiking. The result, a projected supply deficit between 149 and 206 million ounces for 2025. And it's not a one-off. This is the fifth year in a row of deficits with a cumulative shortfall approaching 800 million ounces since 2021. New mines, forget it. Primary silver mines are rare, expensive to develop and face endless permitting delays. Even if one were approved today, it could take 15 to 20 years before it begins production. Recycling is ticking up, but it can only go so far. There is no magic lever to pull. The supply side is boxed in, and with demand rising relentlessly, the imbalance is reaching critical mass. This isn't just a squeeze. It's a slow motion crisis. one where physical silver becomes scarcer, premiums explode, and price becomes the only release valve. Every dollar higher is a signal to the market. There's not enough metal to go around. And with no meaningful new supply on the horizon, silver's price isn't just reacting, it's screaming that the market is broken. >> Very, very interesting uh developments. And then after we've hung about maybe at the 191 range uh you'll go into again and this is where the bulk of your wealth is truly going to be met. Don't forget I've logged scaled this chart. Uh Elijah I just wanted for a second just put this so that people can appreciate the debasement in the dollar. You need to think of this as dollar debasement. That is what you stand to get after the 91. It's not the end of the move. Anything that happens and pauses here then is going to be a horse with open territory uh hi ho tonto I'm tempted to say uh with a open charge to there and the open fields are covered at a gallop. That is my overall uh assessment. Here's why it's different. There is no peak oil. Oil is is is continually created under the earth's crust. It's not rare decomposed dinosaur bone juice. Uh there is a real lack of silver specific miners. A massive percentage of silver is anecdotal secondary supply that comes out of copper mines, gold mines, iron or mines, other product mines. In actual fact, there is a shortage. Plus the barriers to starting new mines from a permitting point of view in particularly the first world countries remain high and have to be rolled back. And bringing a mine to market is a 15 20 year endeavor. Uh so the supply ain't going to get fixed in a hurry. Totally different. And very few silver miners. We're very aggressively long certain miners as well. Many of them US miners. This is going to turn them into absolute cash hemorrhaging machines. I can't be more bullish. I'm hoping I'm leaving the guys excited on the silver front. It is the silver lining to what is going to be a very sad fiat debasement story. But it will outperform even the debasement itself as it outperforms gold. And I've spoken many times, people need gold ounces as their new basis of account for their wealth. And this is not only a smart investment, it's an investment for your family as part of a transgenerational important act that you do for your children. So again, let me hand back uh to you. >> There's a growing fracture between the futures market and the real world, and it's widening by the day. While silver futures try to keep pace, the physical market is starting to run its own race. Prices in the cash market are outpacing the comics. Premiums are surging and delivery delays are mounting. This isn't just volatility. It's a breakdown in the pricing mechanism itself, a sign that the paper market can no longer keep up with real world demand. At the heart of this divergence is one critical truth. Futures contracts can be printed endlessly, but physical silver cannot. And right now, the appetite for real metal, bars, coins, industrial-grade deliveries is overwhelming the system. Wholesalers are reporting shortages. Mints are rationing supply, and even large volume buyers are struggling to lock in orders without paying steep premiums. Meanwhile, the comic still shows a nominal price that doesn't fully reflect this stress. It's a disconnect that can't last forever. The tension is building. Physical buyers don't trust paper prices. Investors are paying 10%, 15%, even 20% above spot just to secure delivery. And behind the scenes, there's growing concern that the vaults backing these contracts aren't as full as they need to be. We've seen this movie before, 2011 2020, when retail demand collided with a tightly wound futures market and caused brief but brutal price dislocations. But this time the pressure is systemic. This is the kind of fracture that leads to revaluation. When enough players stop trusting the benchmark, when too many contracts chase too little metal, the market doesn't correct. It snaps. And when that snap comes, the futures price won't lead the breakout. It'll chase it. The signal is clear. Real silver is worth more than paper, and the market is preparing to repric accordingly. It's it's like it's platinum is to silver what silver is to gold in my opinion. So actually as as probably the most bullish person in silver I'm I'm the most bullish person on platinum. I just think we're going through stages. The availability of platinum is incredibly low. I don't think it has true price discovery mechanism. You're looking at 140 of 190 tons of platinum coming out of southern Africa which is a small contribution from Zimbabwe. The rest from my home country of South Africa. The rest uh is coming from Russia largely to make up deep into the 80s supply of platinum. It is both harder than this metal, this beautiful metal which is still very beautiful. It's harder and doesn't tarnish. It's more dense than gold. It won't scratch as jewelry like gold does. Um, it is a phenomenal metal. The only reason many people don't see it as a monetary metal is it's relatively new metal compared to gold because it was so difficult to find. And on the scarcity side, if you look at production, you're talking 190 tons of platinum, as as I've mentioned per year, of which 140 plus comes from South Africa. uh and another 11 uh 11 or 20 up somewhere, don't quote me exactly, comes from Russia. So, you're probably looking at uh as I say, 80% being from the BRICS nations. And uh if you look at the ratio to the 3,300 ounces of gold, you're you're well, I'll do the maths with you, but I'm pretty sure that's around 17. I know I've done it before. I want to double check my numbers. Uh but if we do 190 uh divided by 3300, let's just stay with 3300, you're it's about 5.7% uh the supply. So to get up to that, you're at about 16 or 17. I'm just going to invert 5.7% there. We'll get uh the answer 17.36. Then you look at um silver. Silver, funny enough, is coming down in its ratio. I think it was uh David Morgan uh silver guru2 that was talking about the percentage of silver output to gold and how it was 9 8 7 each year as we're getting more recent and the last year it's at about 6.9 ounces coming out of the ground uh per gold and that's part of not having specialist silver miners because you don't control the secondary supply. you're digging a hole for copper, you're digging a hole for gold, you're digging a hole for lead or iron. Um, you know, that you really stumble by accident on any silver that's down there. Uh, and that's get that can be quite a small contribution, but it adds up over a lot of mines looking for other things. So, because of the lack of silver specific mines, I think that's why that number is dropping o uh down. If we had more silver miners purely, they would be going primarily down for silver. I think we'd go back up to the, you know, the seven or eights. But even if I, let's just take the eight as a multiple times by 8, uh, that 7.3, we're at about 138 139, uh, silver ounces that are found before you find a single ounce of platinum. So if we took the as you mentioned the the the 64 if I times that by 64 so 138.9 * 64 platinum should be at 8892 if you're just talking all prices by scarcity and there are platinum specific mines just not very many of them >> silver isn't just rising because of inflation or financial fear it's rising because the modern world literally can't function without it behind the headlines lines of this rally is a deep structural force. Industrial demand that refuses to slow down. Solar, electric vehicles, AI infrastructure, advanced electronics, these aren't trends, they're revolutions, and silver sits at the heart of all of them. Unlike gold, which is mostly hoarded, silver is consumed. It gets used up, permanently removed from circulation. And right now, that usage is accelerating at a rate the supply side simply can't match. Start with solar. In 2025 alone, the solar industry is projected to consume between 200 and 261 million ounces of silver, nearly a third of total global production. That's not speculation. That's already priced into contracts and buildouts happening worldwide. As governments double down on green energy mandates, silver's role in photovoltaic cells, where no viable substitute exists, becomes even more critical. Solar demand is rising 16 to 20% year-over-year and it shows no signs of slowing. Then there's electric vehicles. Each EV requires 25 to 50 g of silver embedded across everything from batteries to circuit boards. As production scales into the tens of millions of units per year, that adds up quickly. And when you layer on the boom in AI data centers with their need for high performance electronics plus the ever growing appetite for consumer tech, what you get is a wall of demand that's price insensitive. These industries don't care if silver is $30 or $130. They need it and they'll buy it. The result, over 60% of all silver demand is now industrial and growing. Unlike gold, which can be stored away in vaults for decades, silver is being burned through product by product, chip by chip. And that's the real kicker. Every ounce consumed by industry is an ounce that will never come back. The market is waking up to this reality, and it's beginning to price silver not just as a metal, but as a vital, irreplaceable resource. And uh one or two have even shut shafts because they weren't getting enough money for how hard it was to get such a small amount of that metal. So I managed to be tiny bit more bullish platinum although we're not seeing it yet on the on the most recent price behavior. Platinum made a big big target. So let's cover some of that technically. I just want to just show that this target uh of 1,600 came out of a setup. I think I've done this draw with you before. We had an HBF setup there. Very, very tight, very uh nice squeeze, good riskreward trade. I was lucky enough to get at the 890s and the 900s and then we had a fantastic run up to that target there. So, we post target. So, it's kind of in its churning pause period. the kind of thing that silver might do at 91 and that could be a key point where you'll see platinum doing catchup because the precious metals aren't going to come off the boil generally. It's just a case of how do you ensure you're in the hottest one at the key moments. Possibly I would close a little bit of my leverage longs at 91 run stroke for a short period and jump into a little overweight a little bit more the platinum ones during that uh time frame. Uh the only reason platinum underperformed for this period is because of substitution and the green agenda because it was predominantly industrial demand uh which is being rolled back a fair amount. And now palladium no longer is $200 and was a cheap substitute for platinum when platinum had hit 3,000s before and 2000. So your observation that platinum is the only precious metal of the major three not at a new all-time high is a very good one and I think it's going to be cheap. I consider platinum cheap gold and it goes higher than gold. That's my long-term run. So I think the multiplier you will get on platinum is huge. Especially if you're in the US and you're not paying VAT. Bear in mind the Europeans are not demanding it because it's treated like silver more as an industrial metal and you're paying VAT. Also, the dealer spreads are quite a lot wider. But I I've looked at this and I've said I pay the spreads. I'm happy to do it. It looks like a lot of fixed costs and people go back to either silver or gold. No, it's cheap gold. You're buying it for half the price of gold and I think it finishes higher than gold in the end and possibly a multiple higher. could be 20%, it could be two or three times because it's so thin. So very bullish on the on the platinum uh side. Uh let's just refer one more point. You could see the amazing setups and the huge runs you had in previous markets. And as I've highlighted, this is a falling wedge. And the only reason it's a falling wedge, which is similar to this structure, but not a a symmetrical triangle, is because of that selling across the top and that making marginally lower lows brought about by substitution. So when you talk about platinum, you should also think of the platinum group of metals for which platinum is the largest and most dominant. There is no inside the set substitution easily available anymore because palladium's only a couple of hundred behind it. uh sitting last time I looked at 1,200,400 when this occurred this period from '08 to 24 you had platinum in the thousands and you had palladium at 200 and you had the green agenda. So platinum was almost suppressed like many people think silver's been suppressed by the derivative markets only there was an industrial structural angle to that suppression and I think anything that's been suppressed has an even more tightened spring and a and a and a bigger move to the upside. So let me hand back to you. >> The Federal Reserve isn't managing the economy anymore. It's managing a crisis of confidence. And in December that crisis deepened with inflation still hovering near 3%. The Fed delivered yet another rate cut, the third of the year. Lowering its benchmark to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. But here's the problem. Cutting rates into persistent inflation doesn't fix anything. It only proves one thing. The Fed is trapped. They can't hike without imploding the debt markets. And they can't ease without accelerating inflation. So, they're doing both, trying to thread a needle that's already torn wide open. This latest move wasn't about supporting growth. It was about survival. Behind the scenes, repo markets are flashing stress. Liquidity is drying up. And the Treasury's appetite for issuing new debt is colliding with a wall of investor fatigue. The US is running trillion dollar deficits with no end in sight. And the only way to keep the machine running is to print more money and suppress borrowing costs. But that strategy has consequences. And silver is responding. Every time the Fed signals doubbishness, the dollar weakens. Every time inflation refuses to drop, real yields fall deeper into negative territory. And in that environment, hard assets thrive. Gold benefits, but silver explodes. Because silver doesn't just respond to inflation, it responds to financial repression. When interest rates are artificially held below inflation, when confidence in the dollar erodess, and when the system chooses liquidity over discipline, silver becomes the escape hatch. What we're seeing isn't policy. It's panic. The central bank is no longer acting proactively. It's reacting to the fires it helped start. And the markets are waking up to that reality. The monetary narrative has shifted and the old playbook no longer works. The only question now is how long it takes before that shift turns into a stampede and silver already breaking records becomes the asset of last resort. >> It definitely calls for another share. I want to talk to you about the dollar, Elijah. And I think especially with an American audience, by the way, to all my American friends, their uh subscribers to your channel and anyone from anywhere else in the world, have a amazing and merry Christmas. I'm I'm not sure we'll be speaking again uh before the year is turned. Um but uh as someone exposed to the US dollar, I want to just show you a couple of key charts here. Um you've just had two inverted candles. Let me make this a bit bigger and a bit more apparent. And I'll drop time frames as well. I just want to start you off at a logical place that you can see the full picture. Since the subprime crisis, the dollar has been in a channel range heading upwards against the likes of other western peers. Uh the euro is the largest participant in the dixie at about 52 53%. There's also the Swiss Frank, the Japanese yen which has been very weak uh as part and component the British pound and a little bit of crona from Sweden. But I want to highlight that these two inverted candles on this basing ascending grind line. So that is the lower line of a trend channel. Um you are leaning on those. Twice you've gone up to the 100 and you've been rejected back down. Twice you've gone up to the 100 and been rejected back down. I'm on a threemonly which is a quarterly chart. I'm going to take you in a little closer and uh show you that scenery. You are essentially in a wedge between the 100 and the Dixie started I think it was 71 or 72. Again, correct me in the comments below. Uh we all appreciate it. Um that the Dixie started at 100 and today it's sitting just under 100 at 98 and you've just been rejected down. And I'm highlighting that we're doing interest rate cuts into a fiat and debt debasement. So that's actually trying to say the debt's worth more that's been extremely proliferated. What's actually happened on the US tenure is rates have gone up. We've also shown on your channel and said higher for longer in the markets particularly on the long end and coming for the short end. The Fed and has moved more of its debt onto far shorter time frame where they have a little bit more control on rates but the contagion starts at empires die at the fringes. You know the Goss started uh taking Roman towns on the far-flung perimeters of the empire. That is the long end of the debt market. That is starting to be foregone. One of our big predictions for next year, Elijah, which is going to have real impact on um housing is that we're going to have the six major nations uh through 6% during 2026 on the long end debt. It could even go to the 10 year, but we're seeing on the 20 and the 30, Japan, US, UK, a number of European countries, uh I'm including um France uh in that a very core one. We've got Australia uh looking very precarious on the debt. All that we've looked at big G7 type nations all going through 6% 6x6 going through six. Uh that's dangerous number as a biblical man. I'm sure you'll know. And that's our forecast. And that means money going out of debt and the debt further devaluing. Remember interest rate up, debt valuation down. You need to pay a higher yield to get more people to buy. They want to buy for less and they want to be paid more. Why? Because there's too much of it about. It's proliferation. Fiat and debt bubble, not gold bubble. What does that do? That is the turbo juice for those numbers. Those crazy numbers I've been throwing at you on silver. The Federal Reserve isn't managing the economy anymore. It's managing a crisis of confidence. And in December, that crisis deepened. With inflation still hovering near 3%, the Fed delivered yet another rate cut, the third of the year. Lowering its benchmark to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. But here's the problem. Cutting rates into persistent inflation doesn't fix anything. It only proves one thing. The Fed is trapped. They can't hike without imploding the debt markets. And they can't ease without accelerating inflation. So, they're doing both, trying to thread a needle that's already torn wide open. This latest move wasn't about supporting growth. It was about survival. Behind the scenes, repo markets are flashing stress. Liquidity is drying up. And the Treasury's appetite for issuing new debt is colliding with a wall of investor fatigue. The US is running trillion dollar deficits with no end in sight. And the only way to keep the machine running is to print more money and suppress borrowing costs. But that strategy has consequences. And silver is responding. Every time the Fed signals do doubbishness, the dollar weakens. Every time inflation refuses to drop, real yields fall deeper into negative territory. And in that environment, hard assets thrive. Gold benefits, but silver explodes. Because silver doesn't just respond to inflation, it responds to financial repression. When interest rates are artificially held below inflation, when confidence in the dollar erodess, and when the system chooses liquidity over discipline, silver becomes the escape hatch. What we're seeing isn't policy, it's panic. The central bank is no longer acting proactively. It's reacting to the fires it helped start, and the markets are waking up to that reality. The monetary narrative has shifted, and the old playbook no longer works. The only question now is how long it takes before that shift turns into a stampede. And silver, already breaking records, becomes the asset of last resort. And there's upside in gold to come and platinum. People are going to be moving into stores of long-term value. And that is physical, not digital, it's not debt. Uh and we're seeing this move. If the dollar, the Dixie breaks this line, that could be a very stark turning for what has been a weak grinding upward trend since subprime for the dollar. And it had a very broad range and we've been bouncing in that range for an extended period. If you cut rates into escalating inflation, and inflation is my second prediction for next year, you're going to hear far more about the cost of living, the cost of goods, people not coming out, disposable income. It's going to be a tough midterms for Trump, and it's going to get even tougher after as more complaints. And these notions of giving $1,000 for children and all of these uh aspects are part and parcel of repurposing things that have been taken off tariffs. We mentioned that tariffs was a tax on Americans. China still had a trillion a year record surplus trade and everyone said, "Well, some of it less of it was through America." Nonsense. Go look at the Vietnam, the Philippines, and Mexico's numbers. What do you think is happening? Construction and Chinese goods are passing through or being repurposed to other countries in the same way Europe is buying Russian oil via Indian refineries and just paying a whole bunch more. It is a tax on Americans and it's a small stipen to give back these little gifts that are being muted. It's political. It's very political to try affection uh back for a government that is taxing its citizens through uh tariffs and currency debasement. The cost of living for Americans particularly westerners generally is going to get a lot lot higher if this breaks. And the only thing you do is silver and gold. So, we've talking about silver, gold, the gold, silver ratio. And I've brought you back and I'm finishing um right here with the dollar. This is a concerning point of breaking. We've just the day after cutting into an inflation rate that is higher by 50% than the target and in my opinion is grossly understated. We're going to have a people's revolution. And you know, when it starts to hit the bread markers, consumer credit went through 5 trillion. and the the aspects of consumption on those credit cards which is the highest and most expensive credit is daily daily daily things bread uh groceries and other necessities for families in America I'm afraid to say our success in the silver investing is going to be as part of paying for the masses that are in not invested in precious metals this is a polarizing event for society you either protect your wealth or you get totally debased and you end up on welfare and ward of state uh which is a grand communism uh agenda as far as I'm concerned. >> All the pieces are now in motion and the silver thesis isn't just intact, it's accelerating. We're no longer talking about whether silver can reach $100. The conversation has shifted to whether it can overshoot straight through it. Because when you add it all up, monetary debasement, collapsing dollar, parabolic industrial demand, supply starvation, institutional accumulation, and now options activity betting on vertical moves, the case for 1,000 silver doesn't sound like fantasy anymore. It sounds like math. Let's play it out. If gold hits $5,000, which is well within range in this cycle, and the gold to silver ratio compresses to just 40 to1, silver hits $125. If the ratio plunges to 20 to1, which it did in 1980, silver pushes to $250. But if we see a full-blown flight from fiat, where hard assets become the last safe harbor, and silver's dual industrial monetary role drives a demand panic, then a price tag of $500, $750, even $1,000 is no longer absurd. It becomes a reflection of the systems failure to hold value in paper. That's what this rally represents. Not a commodity boom, but a monetary rebellion. The whales see it. The options markets reflect it. The physical premiums confirm it. And the HVF technicals are mapping it. The market is realigning. The pricing mechanisms are being rewritten. And what's coming next isn't just a rally. It's a repricing of silver's role in the global system. We are entering the vertical phase, not just in price, but in narrative. And once the mainstream catches on, it won't be a question of who's early anymore. It'll be a scramble to avoid being last. >> 100%. Uh, and thank you for that opportunity. As always friends, as we come to a period to celebrate with family and everything else and you're thinking of your goals and objective for next year, I can't state more aggressively and unequivocally that investing for uh capital retention has never been more important than ever before because we are in the acceleration point right now. You only have to look at a long-term gold chart to recognize that the fiat and debt debasement trend that we've been calling the hyper stagflation which means low wages, job losses, tough economic environment here whilst escalating costs are designed to drive you into poverty. You have to for your quality of life and uh your freedoms secure your wealth. It has never been more important. If you're thinking about those goals, our community is set up specifically for these economic times that we have assessed all along is coming. Most of what we predicted is coming uh true on the long term. And it's really important to accelerate that to build your wealth. Precious metals is part of it, but there's a lot more. building wealth, protecting wealth, and securing your freedoms, which can involve some international travel and uh establishing a a footprint beyond just the US borders to protect you from a hedgeimony that is fraying at the edges of its empire. Sadly, I don't wish it um it's not a Christmas message I want to leave you with, but it is an obstacle course. You were born for these times. You take action, you survive, and you go on to thrive from them. Being inert and watching it take place is not a strategy. Um it is sleeping uh when the barbarians are at the gate. Uh so join us. Uh there's links in the YouTube. Join us for a call and a chat. uh or just watch our videos and have some fun for free on YouTube. And there's a free miniseries about HBF method, our unique manner in which we exploit low uh volatility events to fast asymmetric reward trades which are throwing off multiple opportunities to break into this massive silver, gold, and platinum move. >> Silver is no longer just a metal. It's becoming a message. A message that trust and fiat is crumbling. That the system built on debt and delution is finally cracking. and that the world is quietly choosing a different store of value. What we're witnessing is the birth of a new silver paradigm where silver doesn't just track inflation or play second fiddle to gold, but leads the charge as both a scarce industrial input and a monetary lifeboat. This isn't theory anymore. It's unfolding in real time. Supply deficits are becoming permanent. Demand is scaling with mega trends that aren't slowing down. Central banks are boxed in by their own policies. And capital, smart, institutional, aggressive capital is moving. But what makes silver truly different this time isn't just the fundamentals. It's the awakening. For decades, silver was sidelined, manipulated, misunderstood. But now, now it's front and center in the biggest monetary realignment of our era. Investors aren't just buying silver, they're opting out of the system. Every ounce acquired is a vote against debasement, a hedge against chaos, and a play on what's next. And unlike past cycles where silver played catchup, this time it's sprinting ahead. The pricing models can't keep up. The paper markets are straining. And the public, they're still asleep, but not for long. We're standing at the edge of a redefinition. Silver isn't just participating in the reset. It's becoming the symbol of it. The monetary system is shifting and silver is no longer a passenger.