Today Gold and sliver news 116

It looks as if that paradigm shift is I think I don't know but I think it's here to stay. I think you're going to see perhaps a new situation where the eastern exchanges actually start to be more of a dominant force in the overall physical delivery me. You're watching Silver News Daily. Subscribe for more. >> They said it couldn't happen, but it's happening. David Morgan just issued the most apocalyptic warning of his career. And if he's right, silver isn't just heading higher. It's about to enter a phase of market insanity unlike anything we've ever seen. Picture it. The comics once the unshakable king of global silver pricing on the brink of total collapse. While eastern exchanges like the Shanghai gold exchange step in to dominate physical delivery. This isn't some slowmoving shift. It's already started and it's flipping the entire structure of the silver market upside down. For decades, paper contracts kept prices suppressed. But now, the east is ripping control from the west, and the price is beginning to reflect the chaos. Physical shortages are erupting. Industrial demand is going vertical, and silver has already started to spike. But Morgan says that's just the warm-up. When the paper system finally breaks, the price won't just surge. It could go parabolic with $1,000 per ounce being just the beginning. So, what exactly triggered this collapse? Why are delivery defaults mounting? And how did we end up at the edge of the most explosive silver meltup in history? Stay with me. You're about to see why everything you thought you knew about the silver market is about to be rewritten. I learned a little a few lessons with all the gray hair. And one thing I've learned is that over time the premiums actually come back normalized. So I actually just wrote an article and I have it in front of me. I would read you a part of it, but it's all about why the junk bag or what I prefer to call constitutional silver is really the place to look. First of all, that if you get that big a discount, why not take advantage of it? Secondly, the refiners are refusing it more. Most of them, some will take it. Um, that will go away at some point. And then lastly, the bag market does get a huge premium from time to time. And who's to say it won't happen again? I'm not going to forecast that it will. But if you look at Y2K when uh and you know I know you know about that you probably whatever age you were but you know the rollover 1999 to 2000 many people were worried that you know there'd be a computer computer glitch and many people bought bag silver because it's the most recognizable. It's small units. It's easy to use in a barter situation. And so it actually got like a 30 or 40% premium on the bag market rather than just, you know, a silver 100 ounce bar or kilo bar. Now again, I'm not saying that that would happen again, but it could happen again. And also, I think it's a good place to start. I mean, the worst case scenario would be having to barter. But you don't have to look at it like, you know, the banks are closed, I must barter. You can look at it more holistically. and what I do and have often done and that's at a farmers market logo farmers anything from you know beef to flowers to all kinds of uh fruits and vegetables and I take silver of course I take fiat as well but I'd say at least half of the people at the farmers market will accept silver gladly in fact prefer in some cases to using fiat and that exchange takes place so it doesn't have to be a end of the world event to use you or dimes, quarters or halves in a transaction in those kind of locations. You're not going to get away with doing I should say get away with but you're not going to be able to make a negotiation like that at Walmart or Safeway or you know corporate entity but on a onetoone mom and pop kind of operation you can. So I think still and I've done this for years when people ask I'm just getting started. I don't want to make a mistake. What do I buy first? And then I asked them, I don't really want their net worth, but I kind of ask them gently, you know, well, what's your, you know, what's your situation? And once I determine that, for almost all cases, I recommend start with a bag of constitutional silver for the family. So in today's parliament, that would be a,000 ounces face value. Dimes, quarters, halves, could be mixed together. And that thousand face is 720 million ounces. 720 O. And 720 times 50 or 60 76 is 42. You're only maybe 40,000 in fiat. You know that's 10,000 per family member for a family of four. And then I say once you've established that then I would move on to bars or or coins or or rounds. The reason being is that bags are a bit cumbersome. If you've ever held a half bag or a full bag, it's like 70 pounds or something. It's quite a 50 something pounds. Sorry. Anyway, I still think that's a good thing. Uh, and regardless of today's uh discount, which again you could take advantage of, if someone called me today and said, "Well, what would you do?" That's exactly what I tell them today. >> The balance of power in the silver market has quietly but decisively shifted, and most of the world hasn't even noticed. While Western institutions scramble to maintain the illusion of control, Eastern markets are stepping in with force, seizing the reigns of physical silver delivery and rewriting the rules in real time. The Shanghai Gold Exchange, long dismissed by Western analysts, is now dominating global physical settlement. Unlike ComX, where trades are largely paperbased and settled in cash or rolled over, the Shanghai model insists on physical delivery. And that changes everything because in a market built on leverage and illusion, the sudden emergence of a real physical pricing mechanism is like a lit match in a room full of dynamite. David Morgan says this shift is not only historic, it's irreversible. The East isn't just participating in the silver market anymore. It's leading it. Sovereign buyers, private refiners, and industrial consumers are all turning to eastern platforms, draining available supply while Western vaults bleed out. This is the beginning of a paradigm shift, one where the traditional price setting mechanisms no longer reflect the actual movement of metal. And as Morgan warns, once the east fully controls the flow of physical silver, the West won't just lose pricing power, it will lose access entirely. >> We're in a pretty frothy market right now. I mean, we've seen silver pretty much double this year, and we haven't had that kind of move in silver since the 1979 going into 1980 time frame. So, that's one thing. You know, anyone that follows the metals markets is aware of that. I think the other part is uh having gotten ahead of ourselves temporarily. Now on an inflationadjusted basis uh the new 60 does not equal 50 of 1980 or 48 12 of 2011 but nonetheless we are in nominal new new highs and I think we need a little bit of um let's say of a pause perhaps kind of rebuild a base uh before this I don't think it's a runaway market but it's actually very very >> just before we get going we just launched the official silver news daily Telegram. To kick things off, we're running a 10oz silver giveaway. Yes, real physical silver, not a voucher, not digital credits, actual bullion. This Telegram will be our new home for real-time silver discussions, market insights, collection picks, and everything precious metals. It's where the community truly comes alive. Here's how to enter the 10oz silver giveaway. Be subscribed to Silver News Daily on YouTube. Turn on the notification bell. comment 10O giveaway on three separate videos. Be an active member of the Telegram group and say hi. Once we hit 500 active Telegram members, we'll pick one lucky winner to receive 10 ounces of silver shipped directly to you. So get in early, stay active. The cracks in Comx's armor are no longer hairline fractures. They're gaping fissures that threaten to bring the entire system down. For decades, the Western silver market was built on a foundation of paper promises, futures, contracts, leverage, and a steady stream of rollovers that rarely required real metal to change hands. But that illusion is now breaking. Registered silver stocks on comics have plummeted. Delivery requests are rising. And worst of all, confidence is evaporating. More and more traders are refusing to settle in cash. They want the metal now, but the metal isn't there. According to David Morgan, this is the fatal flaw of the paper system. When enough people ask for what they're actually owed, the lie collapses under its own weight. And we're watching that unfold in real time. Major refiners are reporting delays. Vaults are being drained faster than they can be restocked. And all the while, premiums on physical silver are rising, proof that the paper price no longer reflects reality. What we're witnessing is the slow motion failure of the Western pricing structure. The question is no longer asterisk if asterisk comx will break. The question is asterisk what happens asterisk when it does. >> I will answer your question Elijah but several years ago I was asked by futures magazine to write an article on silver and it was a bit of an honor really because most of them have to be CMTs or whatever certified market technicians. I'm not very well versed in technical analysis, but they titled the uh article spiked and then the subtitle is something about silver, but silver has a propensity to spike low and spike high. And of course, anyone that looks at that cup and handle that's been referred to adnauseium in the silver community, which is true. It's a huge cup and handle and it is the most powerful formation. But the point is that if you look at it, you see these big spikes. Spike in 1980, spike in 2011, and now we are spiking again. And in the article, I pointed out that when you get a parabolic move like that, it goes more or less straight up. Often referred to as the hockey stick. U to reiterate what you just said, be careful what you wish for because it it is telling us and it doesn't matter if it's silver, soybeans, um soybeans. The panic for physical silver has officially begun. All across the market, signs of stress are flashing red. Premium surges, product back orders, and vaults struggling to keep up with demand. But this isn't just a spike in coin shop activity. This is systemic. Institutions, funds, and large-scale investors are no longer comfortable with paper claims. They're demanding the real thing. 1,000 bars delivered, not deferred. And in response, the system is cracking. Refiners can't process fast enough. Vaults are getting drained. And premiums, especially on large institutional bars, are widening in a way that signals fear. Junk silver, once a niche collector's item, is now trading at abnormal spreads. And even that market is starting to dry up. David Morgan calls this the ignition point. The moment when trust in the system fails and people scramble for physical metal before the window slams shut. What makes this different from past shortages is that it's not just retail investors piling in. It's the big money, smart money, that's turning its back on paper and moving into hard silver. And when that shift accelerates, comics won't just be stressed, it will be overwhelmed. Well, the market has changed from being driven by basically the retail side. You know, the the the margin of the market is what is the investment or monetary demand for silver and that es and flows and uh North America is by far the largest purchasers of retail silver products. And once silver got into like the 35 range, we basically had more sells that buys. So the wholesale market and I know fair amount of these people on a first-name basis and I check with them usually once a week or once every other week to see what their inventory is like and in North America we still have a lot we have more sales than buys. So the retail side is kind of flush with with product but what's different this time Elisha is that the wholesale side the commercial bar market is short. There really isn't enough supply or barely enough supply to meet the demand that's coming out for both industrial purposes such as photovotayics and uh ETPs the exchange traded products that are now come to the four in India which has got has caught on to the exchange traded products and what's going on with the Shanghai gold exchange where it's more of a physical market than neither the LBMA or the comx and there's a bigger turnover over percentage-wise from what the paper contracts are versus the physical supply and because of that uh there's a high demand and it continues. Now whether or not it continues you know indefinitely or not remains to be determined but basically the last couple months as you mentioned it looks as if that paradigm shift is I think I don't know but I think it's here to stay. I think you're going to see perhaps a new situation where the eastern uh exchanges actually start to be more of a dominant force in the overall physical delivery mechanism than what we've seen in the past. >> It's the setup every season silver analyst fears and every opportunist dreams of the blowoff top. That moment when price action abandons reason, when fundamentals take a backseat to raw emotion and panic bidding drives the market into vertical ascent. David Morgan has seen this before. In 1979, silver soared from $6 to nearly $50 in a matter of months. In 2011, it happened again. $9 to $49 in 3 years. Both times the moves were violent, chaotic, and short-lived. But this time, Morgan warns, the setup is far more explosive. Why? Because the structural stress beneath today's market is far deeper. We're not just dealing with investor greed. We're dealing with real scarcity, industrial demand pressure, geopolitical stress, and the complete unraveling of paper trust. And critically, central banks are cornered. Interest rates can't be raised fast enough to stop inflation without blowing up the debt market. That means the escape valves that capped Silver's blowoff in the past, they're gone. If Silver enters a true meltup, there may be no stopping it. Morgan doesn't just see $50 getting breached. He sees a move so fast and so extreme that even seasoned traders will be blindsided. This isn't just the start of a rally. It's the start of a frenzy. >> Excuse me. You go up, go sideways, maybe somewhat down a step or two, and then level off, and then back up, and then level off. And if you go up in that manner, you're building a base all the way up. So you have convicted conviction on the buy side and the sell side, but you have conviction in the market. Whereas if it just keeps going up and up, you know, it's the last bid that makes the market. So what some people don't understand about a market, stocks, bonds, commodities, whatever, it's the last bid that shows up on the print at the end of the day. So, let's for a thought experiment say that silver gets to $70 in the next week and it's Friday and it's almost the close of the market and somebody bids 75 but it's for one lot. It's one contract and it gets accepted. Well, everyone that owns silver would look at that and say, "My goodness, silver's at 75." Well, the paper price is at 75 and there's only one contract. one contract is not substantial, you know? I mean, someone could come in and say, "All right, I want to sell." And no one wants to buy at 75. So, the orders have to match. So, the the open orders at 71. And so, that $4 difference gets gapped. In other words, the MA orders have to match. So, there's a gap between the 75 and the 71. I hope I'm making sense here. What I'm trying to point out is that in a runaway or straight up market, there's no stability. There's no foundation. There's no base. And that's why it could go down as quickly or usually quicker than it goes up. So, I think I answered that sufficiently. I think we're going to be okay. I do see the end of the market like that, Elijah. It's almost inevitable because all markets get that blowoff. If you look at the psychological aspect, there's a curve out there. I don't have it handy, but I looked at the stealth phase, the institutional phase, the smart money phase, and it starts going parabolic, and that's the public phase. And then at the top, it says manic panic phase. And that's a pretty good illustration of the psychology behind markets, the fear of missing out that we hear about all the time. It happens to Bitcoin, happens to real estate, it happens to tech stocks, and it will happen to >> underneath the price action and headlines lies a brutal truth. The world simply cannot mine enough silver to meet what's coming. Even as demand goes vertical, the supply side is crumbling. Global mining production has stagnated and new discoveries are practically non-existent. Meanwhile, refining bottlenecks are growing, especially in western jurisdictions burdened by regulation and high costs. Refiners are prioritizing high purity 999 bars to maintain throughput. But even that system is backlogged. and 90% silver. It's becoming a liability. Too expensive to refine, too slow to move. This is where the rubber meets the road. Silver isn't just in short supply. It's structurally constrained. Even if prices shoot higher, the lag between price action and new production means there's no quick fix. David Morgan is blunt. The world has run out of slack. The just in time model of metal delivery is dead, and the market hasn't adjusted yet. If investors and industries continue to demand immediate physical delivery, and all signs point to that accelerating, there's no cavalry coming to save the system. Supply is broken, trust is broken, and the market still hasn't priced that in. >> Oh, happy holidays to the people in America on Thanksgiving, a little past. Hope you had a good one. And then happy holidays to all out there. Um Christmas to um most of you, but there's other holidays I acknowledge. And I just grateful for uh you know our friendship and the longevity we've had together. You do a great job and uh I think I have a very balanced approach too. I think that's good. I mean we want to hear all voices and some are tell let's say more conservative than others. I tend to lean toward the conservative side. I really always believe that people got to understand how the money system works and why precious models are important but they're not an end in themselves. So, I think, you know, a balanced approach to investing in gold and silver will serve you better than trying to time the market, go all in or whatever. Um, you know, kind of like seasoning your steak. You know, a little bit of seasoning might make it a little better, but you dump too much on there and you've ruined it. So, we don't want to ruin anyone's investment portal. Back to >> silver isn't just a precious metal anymore. It's a strategic resource and the industrial world is devouring it at a speed the market simply cannot absorb. Solar panels, electric vehicles, AI processors, 5G infrastructure, every one of these booming sectors relies on silver. And not just a little. We're talking about millions of ounces being consumed every single month with no viable substitute in sight. According to David Morgan, this industrial pressure is the silent killer of silver availability. Unlike investor demand, which can cool off during corrections, industrial demand is relentless, non-negotiable, and growing exponentially, solar PV manufacturers, for instance, are stockpiling silver in anticipation of even greater shortages. EV producers are doing the same. And as green energy mandates sweep across the globe, silver is being burned up by factories faster than refiners can supply it. This isn't a speculative bubble. It's a structural squeeze. And while Wall Street analysts argue over inflation and rate cuts, the real battle is being fought in industrial warehouses and supply contracts. Once those buyers are forced into the open market, bidding against investors for what's left, the price won't rise gradually. It'll detonate. >> Mitigated it in the past. Would it work again? It might, but it kind of gets to the point of the boy who cried wolf, meaning, you know, it works, it works, it works, and then you know, it doesn't. The idea for me, I wrote in the editorial that again I just published was that I do not see the Fed having nearly the power that most people and even market participants even at the Wall Street level anticipate. Uh, you know, we did an increase not that long ago and the 10-year note basically ignored it. And I think that's uh a distinct possibility. Basically, no one really wants to buy US debt or at least not as the quantity that has occurred in the past. So, if Japan doesn't want to buy it and China doesn't want to buy it, European Central Bank doesn't want to buy it, then who buys it? Well, you have to have the buyer of last resort. So we may see something like that take place and the market kind of ignores that you know 25 basis points cut that's going to happen in December most likely which would actually be a signal to the market that um the Fed's ability to set the discount rate is not as powerful as it once was. Of course, they could try another operation twist and work the yield curve and try to get, you know, this inversion corrected and, you know, make pretend that everything is okay. But things are okay. I mean, anyone on Wall Street, any major bank, any trading room, they all know what's going on. It's just that they want to pretend that the US debt market, the treasuries are valuable, they're safe and all the things we've been taught, you know, from the time the bond market started, but those are not true. And, you know, the Moody's has downgraded the the the rate that they put on the US Treasury market just a teeny little bit, but still the gesture is there that it's not as safe as it once was. So, I'm making a big case about that, but I think it's an important one to make because at some point the market, what we used to call when I was your age, the bond vigilantes, will take over and kind of ignore what the Fed's doing in the market will take presidents over what the Federal Reserve does. Now, putting someone new in there and lowering the rates more and more to me would be a signal that we're in that last kind of maybe not the last but near the last and perhaps the last vestage of hope where we can print our ways out of this mess. But you can't print wealth and everybody knows it at this point. So, if that sparks further inflation, then you will probably have more impetus to move into gold and silver markets than we have at this point in time. While the West debates rate cuts and recession odds, the East is quietly cornering the global silver supply. China, India, and other non-western players are draining vaults, locking in long-term physical contracts and shifting the gravitational center of the market away from New York and London. The Shanghai Gold Exchange is already outpacing comx in delivery volume, and sovereign wealth funds are hoarding silver as a strategic hedge, not just against inflation, but against Western instability. This isn't speculative behavior. It's preparation. David Morgan points out that these nations understand what's coming. A breakdown in the credibility of the West's paper markets and a reversion to real assets as trust in fiat erodess. And unlike retail investors in the West who are scrambling for coins and rounds, these entities are buying in bulk. Multi-tonon shipments delivered directly to vaults that never reexport. Once it's in the east, it doesn't come back. That's the part most people miss. The flow of silver is now one way. And as these countries build reserves for energy, defense, and monetary insurance, the available pool shrinks for everyone else permanently. A large selloff in the equity market, the S&P 500, and it was significant enough. I would see I could definitely see the metals getting under those support levels. And that's what I think is going to happen. Now, I've been wrong for too long, but uh it doesn't mean I'm wrong forever, you know, but it's a stop clock. A stop clock is correct twice a day. But anyway, not beating myself up too much. I do think that we will see a stock market correction. The metals will go down with it temporarily. It will be a buying opportunity. But the new bulls, the the people that bought at, you know, 50 plus and watch it go to 60 and are in profit zone and then to, you know, not have a stop or whatever. I'm talking more for traders, but investors as well. I if you buy it at 50, you pay a low premium, you buy a bag, uh, and then the market's at, you know, 45 again, uh, you get a little disheartened, especially if you're a new buyer. Um, again, I don't want to make a big thing about it, but I don't rule it out on those conditions. I don't see it happening again, you know, we continue as is, but I don't think we will. I think that um you know you look at the high-tech the Nvidia you know how the the Dow Jones and particularly the S&P 500 are weighted so heavily to make a construct that is really not showing the true broad width and depth of the S&P 500. you take seven of the most popular, most liquid, and most traded stocks and you base and weight the average upon that, it's really not telling the total truth. So, I'm just making my case again that a stock market correction in my mind is well overdue and I don't think it's um I think it is out there in the future. Not necessarily. you know, could keep going up, but um that's always >> the psychology of the market has flipped and the herd is beginning to stampede. What started as whispers among silver veterans has turned into a roar across forums, fund managers, and financial media. Fear of missing out is no longer limited to small retail buyers. It's spreading to institutions. Wealth managers who dismissed silver are now calling emergency strategy meetings. ETFs are seeing inflows. Premiums are widening again, not just because of scarcity, but because of urgency. David Morgan says this is the ignition point, the moment where silver transitions from undervalued to unavailable. And in this phase, price doesn't move on logic, it moves on emotion. Panic buying becomes reflexive. Every dip gets bought harder. And each new high becomes a magnet for more capital. The smart money sees what's happening. A system shift, a physical squeeze, and a breakdown of trust. They're getting in before the headlines confirm what insiders already know because when the real wave hits, when the mainstream finally reacts, it will already be too late. The last train out of the station will be gone. >> Well, gold has been the leader and um being a student of the markets in total, but you know, one that I would say taught me maybe say the most, but certainly up there would be the late great Jim Dyn. And he had uh like the Dow theory uh I don't know what he called it but basically was a precious metals confirmation. In other words, gold could not shoot up alone without and be in a true new bull market without confirmation from silver and really from platinum palladium. Well, that's taken place. So, there's confirmation across the board that the metals move as a group uh in a strong bull market and they are moving as a group. The second thing is that silver will outperform at some point and that of course takes some time as we both know but it's not unusual for silver to play catchup once this new phase of the market happens and my magic number was 70 to1 on the gold silver ratio and I think we were at 72 or three yesterday but we've started to move down from that over 100 we were a few months back and so we are intact for a new bull market I think uh it's up up and away. Hopefully, it's a a base and build base and build base and build with some massive corrections along the way. And I'll just give you a bit of a hint from my uh latest newsletter, my paid service, Elijah, and I put in there that I saw perhaps that we could get below the 4,000 level in gold again and we could get below the $50 level in silver again. And I did not get too much push back from my readers, but I did get some. And my take on that possibility is that on the metals alone in the dynamics that we're sitting in today, if the status quo stayed as it is, and it never does, everything changes. Probably wouldn't see under 50 or under 4,000 for gold and silver respectively. However, if we were to get >> something is snapping, and it's not just investor sentiment. The divergence between paper and physical silver has become so extreme, it's now impossible to ignore. Comics may still print a price, but that number no longer reflects the reality on the ground. Coin shops are quoting double-digit premiums. Industrial users are paying up for guaranteed delivery. And refiners are fielding urgent requests that the paper market simply can't satisfy. David Morgan calls this the great disconnect. A moment where two realities collide. On one side, a decades old system built on leveraged contracts, manipulated futures, and synthetic supply. On the other, a world demanding tangible metal now. And as this gap widens, the illusion that comics pricing reflects anything real begins to shatter. Investors are no longer asking what silver is worth. They're asking whether the quoted price means anything at all. And when enough people stop believing in the price, the price stops mattering. The only thing that counts is possession, who has the metal, who can deliver it, who's left holding an empty promise. That's when the system breaks. >> I'm not sure, but I I will go back to what I said earlier. The premiums uh come back to normal over time. I mean, for example, one of my friends in the industry, you probably are aware of his name. Perhaps you know him, but Franklin Sanders, he's my age or maybe a year or two older. Not that that matters, but he's been in the industry a very long time. And he has a a um graph that he I guess does by hand that shows the premium in the silver market. And when we saw the very tight supply in silver eagles where we were seeing what $14 premiums, something along those lines, and he was sending out his newsletter, which I get to his clientele, um, don't chase this market. The premiums always normalize over time and they did. And so, uh, I'll just go back to that. I think even if we do get a spike and you know game's over or whatever I don't think you'd be unhappy uh having bag silver and then um if the demand side continues what we started our conversation with where basically industry and institutional cannot get enough thousand ounce bars those refiner will open up to whatever silver they can get to keep that uh supply intact to keep the demand filled so I don't see that much risk to it. Pretty much I'll push back. I don't like that term push back, but let me um elaborate. Right now, the reason that the refiners want 999, so maples, eagles, silver rounds, kilo bars, 10 oz bars, 100 oouncez bars is because the refining process is is almost automatic. You put all the stuff in a bucket, you heat it up, and you pour out a thousand ounce bar, and you do that all day long. Whereas, if you do 90%, you got to re-refine it. you got to get rid of the copper and you got to pour it again and it's much more costly and timeconuming. So right now they're trying to speed up the supply line as quickly as they can which means all they got to do is is um you know melt and pour melt and pour melt and pour and that's why they're not taking the constitutional silver because the demand for the commercial side is so strong they want to expedite it. The only way he expedited is turn 100 ounce bars, 10 of them in a thousand ounce bar, rinse and repeat. >> David Morgan's warning was never about fear. It was about inevitability. The system was always going to break. Comex was always going to collapse. And now we're watching it unfold in real time. The east has taken control. Physical demand has overwhelmed supply. Industrial usage has locked up future availability. And the paper market, it's unraveling under the weight of its own fiction. 1,000 silver isn't some wild forecast. It's a rational conclusion when decades of manipulation meet a sudden demand for truth. As vaults are drained and confidence collapses, silver isn't just going to rise, it's going to rip. The final phase has already begun and the window to act is closing faster than anyone expected. If you want to stay ahead of this historic shift, make sure to subscribe so you never miss what's coming next. And remember, this is not financial advice. Always speak to a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.