[Music] I'm Charlotte McLoud with investing news.com and here today with me is David Morgan publisher of the Morgan report thank you so much for being here great to have you well thanks Charlotte seems like it's been a while so thank you for having me it has been a little while I was checking and our last interview was back in November so it's been some time and we began that conversation talking about gold and I think what I had asked you is you know is it a gold breakout or is it a fake out and now we have with


silver going past $30 per ounce I think people are wondering the same thing about silver so I thought I could start by getting your thoughts on that topic great uh I think I hope I think I made the right call on gold and uh here's the call on Silver it is a Breakout I have What's called the Morgan rule my premium members know it because I use it in some of the updates I do for the membership but it's and it's not infallible but it's a high probability so whenever we get a new level we look


at the market to go above that level it must go above that level three days in a row it can it can go below the level during day but it has to remain above that level on Oco on close only which is a trading term and it needs to be on above average volume so if you have those things three days in a row above average volume over a new hurdle you have about an 80 85% probability that the trend will continue that's a very high probability and it works 100% of the time no it works by 80 85% of the time


so we had that with the $30 level in silver we got up to in the last 5 days traded over 32 now we're just over 30 30 is held for the last two days and it could dip below it I mean we could see it Go could go below it I mean I admit that we don't know for certain uh but we've certainly reached the $3 level significantly enough and for long enough of a time for that to be what I call psychological confirmation as well which means that people get the idea now that Silver's traded at $30 a mon


okay okay I think that provides some really good context on where we're at right now and looking ahead with that in mind what do you think Silver's path looks like into 2024 I think we've talked before about how if we get to that 33 is dollar level and silver can get through there then there's not a whole lot of resistance but I would assume we need to see some support established around 30 before we go there yeah you pay attention attention to not just my interviews but all that


you do and I know you do a vast amount of work and I watch a great deal of your interviews by the way that's it I mean we're probably going to hit a trading range we're probably going to trade between 30ish and 32 for a while and it'll go back and forth and this is my best guess I mean if you interview me 10 days from now I might have changed my mind based on new data or some new announcement about more solar panels or something silver world but regardless normally we'll see a new trading range


and then we'll break through that to the upside and 33 is not a magic number but it's a good rule of thumb as you said above that there really is not very much resistance which means any new buying will take it higher and higher and higher and what do I expect for the rest of 2024 I'm G to be a conservative Charlotte I'm going to say um I think will still be in the 30s and probably in the mid-30s I don't really think silver is going to be uh in the 40s by then years people will make arguments it'll


be 50 and it could be but I'm going to remain conservative my call for this year before any real bullishness in silver and gold was just starting to make some pretty good moves was $2,500 gold and $30 silver and surprisingly my silver call is here already and gold has not quite made it to 25 and that isn't like the average price that's kind of the high range but again I hope I'm wrong I hope Gold's well over that and silver is making new nominal highs for you know what I what I wish would happen


but what do I believe will happen I don't think you're going to see $33,000 gold this year I don't think you're going to see $40 okay okay it's good to get those numbers out there and I think looking we we'll go over to gold in a little bit but I'll finish up with silver first and ask you a little bit more on that angle so when we look at what's driving silver right now I think if people are following these markets they know that typically gold moves first and then


silver will follow so it's probably pretty easy to say you know okay that's what's happening right now we have silver following gold but I'm curious to to get your thoughts on what's been driving this move in silver past 30 yeah excellent question and it's a tough one because silver is acting strong and yet if you look at some of the features you would normally expect to show strength they're not there what I mean by that is the retail Market doesn't believe this move in fact I just


talked to the third dealer today and they're getting more sells than BuyBacks so a lot of people that bought at 25 with a high premium and they paid 30 or whatever saying you know I could get 30 for it on a sale or 31 or what it it whatever and they're out and uh so so that wouldn't add to you know a higher price in fact a a lot of selling would take the price down obviously not doing that the main factor is two things the amount of uh inaccuracies and how much was used in solar last year I think is


Weighing on the solar industry and so there's that and then on top of that the Futures Market continues to go higher and higher and a lot of that has to do with the um the Shanghai Futures exchange the SF because there's an Arbitrage available between the price of silver on the comx and the price of silver in Shanghai and it's significant now it costs to play that ARB in the physical world you've got to buy it in at the comx and now you got a lower price maybe two bucks an ounce three bucks an ounce that's a Teck


of a spread but now you've got to ship it or take an airplane or something so there's transportation cost to get the physical there so it's done synthetically which means in the paper markets but the point being is they are setting records in the Shanghai Futures exchange and most people don't pay attention to it or know where to look and I was a little hesitant to jump on the bandwagon Ross Norman was about the first one to write about it and I you know get a lot of information from a lot


of different sources and some are more trustworthy than others blah blah but this was okay so I started looking at hard and yeah it's been um it's been verified time and time again the last week or two that there's something going on and I'll I'll stick my neck out I was conservative on the last segment I'll be a little more bold this time if the Chinese retail Market has caught onto the silver market watch out I mean you've got 1.4 billion people and now not all those people are going to be


silver investors I realize but the point is there's a lot of Chinese and they like to they love the markets so that's that's really the driver solar and Chinese and also uh people in the know people that get the studies on Silver that really look at the market hard and see you know what the future looks like as far as the major Trends the major Trends are more bullish than I've seen a long time it kind of reminds me of when you and I first met back in the early early days uh you know Inn had just started for a


year or two you doing all the circuits for all the resources in silver you know went from five up to 50 from 2003 to 2011 and gold went from 252 up to 200000 in 2011 I mean we had a pretty good run there for about a decade where you know every time we spoke the medals were higher than they were last time or close to it we had some EPs and flows in there we had the financial crash and all that I'm not painting in I don't want to paint an inaccurate picture but you know what I'm saying looks to me like we're


there again that we're in the early phases of a major B market okay I think that was very helpful for me I'm glad that you brought up what's going on in the Chinese market because I had seen you sending out some tweets on what's happening there and I I really looked at it and I thought okay I really need this explained so that helps I have one follow-up question so this isn't the Futures exchange so who who are these buyers do we know who that is I think you mentioned we're waiting for


that retail crowd to potentially come in but do we have a picture of of who's doing this somewhat I mean the futur markets are for professionals I mean there's always the people that buy get a Futures account and trade one or two contracts or 10 or maybe 20 you know depending on how how you know well healed they are what kind of risk Capital they manage but it's most mostly uh especially in softs and the asgs but in the metals as well it's the producers it's the farmers that farm wheat that are in there but


these are conglomerates I mean it's I mean there's some Farmers that'll pick up the phone and have a Futures Contract and H your own You Know Field that's that's true as well but it's the professionals and so that's the same thing in China and what are they doing there is not only playing the market but but they may be there to hedge a position or to lock in a price for future delivery that is lower than let's say a price you know six months from now for industrial


purposes so it could be not saying would be but could be potentially hazardous to um the physical Market which of course I I think at some point will drive this Market away from the papers and because you cannot put you know a contract of silver into a solar panel you've got to put about 20 grams of silver in the so I'm very you I won't be overly bullish but the market speaks loudly and we are entering a new time frame in a new I'd say decade where we will have um probably a deficit running like we


talked about before the show yeah so we going on in demand here but as you mentioned before we turned the camera on we were going over Supply and you had a really interesting chart that I'll link in the video description for anybody who wants to follow along when we talk about that but you essentially seeing on the supply side it looks like it's really peaked for at least the foreseeable future so maybe you could go over that chart and what you see there yeah this comes from Matt Watson


and I was introduced to Matt by the silver Institute so I want to give him credit his it's his graph uh but what he shows is that the amount of mined silver and recycled silver remains flat for several years going forward and I think he's right based on the fact that we've had a flat silver supply for the last decade or so it's ebbed and flowed but it stayed within a few percent and recycling the same thing so you take that projection as being a valid assumption or near Val and then you look at what the demand


side is and it continues to increase and we know that uh has been significant especially in solar and solar just keeps getting bigger and bigger quick example I wrote in the Morgan report couple months ago Charlotte oh oh you are sitting down good because the solar farm that's being put together in India is the size of five Paris France so think of the size of Paris and multiply it by five and that's the size of the solar bar so that's a significant amount of silver I guess again when you


think it's you know 20 grams for solar panel how many solar panels are we talking about so we saw that big import export import into India uh I would say that that was all or most all of it was for the solar farm and that is a trend uh more and more of this you know go green be green alternative energy all of that uh portends a lot more use in silver and maybe more than these people understand is really available uh so it's a quite bullish situation it really does sound like it and so I think we've covered a good


number of the bases in silver and I want to make sure we don't forget about gold as well although how how could we ever forget about gold so of course gold has been reaching record highs in 2024 and interestingly I I was hearing for quite a long time you know gold will really get going when the FED Cuts rates or you know when the stock market corrects and gold has gotten moving without either of those things really happening so curious to get your your take on what's going on with gold you know we've talked about


the importance of central banks driving gold in the past you know it's that is a great question and I really thought about that more and more and more and you know stock first of all gold moves opposite the stock market does it move opposite the US dollar yes but it's actually more inversely correlated in the stock market so now let's think about that stock market's been making new highs and yet Gold's been making if they're opposite and they are that's correlation I mean


not 100% nothing's correlated 100% that says that gold is really strong because normally in a strong stock market it doesn't do this well so even though the the price is nominally high and and that's good it's probably not nearly as high as it would be in a weak stock market environment on the interest rate things I'm a bit of a Maverick really to me and time is showing this interest rates do matter absolutely cost of what we call money but you really don't get it to affect gold until the interest


rate is equal to or greater than the true inflation rate and the true inflation rate basis John Williams shadowstats do.com I don't know the number I listened to a recently forget the number I'll be I'll say 10% and we're using a five five and a half percent yield on the bond right now on the on the near term and so cutting interest rates will help the gold market they cut him here but the way to really you know move gold down would be to move interest rates even higher but they're


not could interest rates move higher I'll be Maverick again and say they could but nothing Monumental in my view I mean could go a half you know 500 basis points could go full basis point and another percent hard could uh will it get to 10% I really doubt it because there's too many variables that depend on the cost of money and one of them is the interest on the national debt you just get it too high you'll collapse the economy so the fed's in IR rock in a hard place and gold senses that and it's


forecasting higher prices which really is in higher price I mean it's a higher price but what it really means is the dollar is losing purchasing power uh because gold is a constant an ounce of gold is an ounce of gold that doesn't change it changes the price so why is the price changing because the dollar is deteriora and uh I think that's inevitable regardless of what the FED does with interest rates and it's it's what you know I and so many others have predicted that you interview


and you've gotten you know some really right people throughout the years and continue to interview them but it's a really simple equation all Fiat fails and does the Dollar go to zero and it's going to go away and all no the dollar will be here but what's the purchasing power going to be and the problem is the de deterioration of the Dollar's acceler and that's what scares me right and you know speaking a little bit more about the economic Outlook in the US before before 2024 began you were


telling me you know we've been in a in a recession we're in a recession right now and 2024 could be a year where we head even toward a depression so we're now we've made it about five months into the year so I wanted to get your your updated take on that situation well I've still still will maintain that uh and you know it's hard to define a depression but let's just take the fast food industry I mean you take your you know your McDonald's your Hardies your Wendy's I don't know all


the ones in Canada I've been there many times but you want to get fast food restaurants on there but the point is people frequented those places because they were cheap they were affordable they were fast all that's gone away if you look at the statistics in the United States and shirts everywhere uh these restaurants are hurting now because they cost so much and that's just another red flag that I'm right so people will do what it's going to cost them $111 for a Happy Meal or then uh they're gonna quit


going and they're going to buy food at the grocery store and make their own burgers at home or whatever so that's just a a cutesy point but it's a valid one I mean it's a big industry think of how many billions of hand hamburgers McDonald's sells every year worldwide so there's a lot going on that people don't talk about um not that that's a major talking point but they refuse to see it my statement that I've made to almost all the interviews is that the average


person will recognize that we are in a recession at least and that's where they see it they see that what used to cost them X is 200% higher five years later that's McDonald's I just got that statistic before our show that's a very significant increase in prices in a fiveyear time frame so that's just an example but it's not across everything but that's the trend and that's the problem so people start to fear how much it's going to accelerate in the future because it's accelerated more rapidly so


they start to become fearful that I better spend this money now because six months from now my McDonald's that I'm only going to once a month now instead of twice a week is going to cost me so much that they start to uh look for Alternatives not only where they buy their food but what where their savings are if they have any yeah I I can definitely agree with the fast food example just for a small anecdote I was in Seattle this past weekend and of course normally I live in Vancouver so we went on this visit and the food


prices anywhere we would go were so expensive and of course for us it's translating it from Canadian into American dollar so even worse so that was the pain was definitely real there and I think the other the other point that I wanted to ask you about so all this is going on and of course we're quickly approaching the election in the US and I've heard a lot of commentary I think from people on both sides of the aisle kind of looking toward after the vote happens and the potential turmoil


that could happen there so I thought I would ask you your thoughts on that as well thank you I'm going to digress but I'll answer your question uh years ago when we had the early silver Summits and we used to have them in the Silver Valley or in cordal Lane uh I used to do a workshop the day before usually and at this particular one it was preh Hightech I mean we still have computers in the internet but I brought a whiteboard out and I wrote the word trust on the top of it and I circled it and I said this is


why the system will break apart because of lack of trust and I was talking primarily about trust in the financial markets Trust of what a dollars were Trust of the bond market longterm Trust of the equity Market uh Trust of uh financial statements but really now it's it's gotten to into the political class and it's trust of the vote who counts the vote uh who's telling that you know we all know politicians lie if you don't know you're not an adult but it's now do we trust who won the election and that's


a sad State of Affairs for everyone because that is what points to potentially which means we could see um some Uprising whatever that means uh dep depending on either case X or Y winning the election ction y says no and or X says no depending on who what the outcome is and that's very sad and it's very uh disheartening to the system of that's been developed for so long so I'm not predicting that but I'm not ruling it out either I think that we are in a disarray on a global basis 80% of the


population of the planet votes in a new leader this year I wrote about that in the Morgan report so there's a lot of turmoil potentially you're seeing uh people that come to power that you might not have expected just a few years back uh you see what's happened in Argentina with someone that's bent uh pretty much toward the Austrian School of economics and you know anti-f funny money and uh some interesting things you hear from some of the people that you interview but it's got to be trust and


if you've lost trust as I said in the financial example that's when the system really starts to have problems so we have problems not only in the markets we have trouble in political markets or political system as well which I don't like to report but you know I mean that's our job yours and mine and that's that's the way I see it I think I think that also feeds well into my next question which is going to be you know there's all this turmoil there's a lot of noise out there are


there things that you see people missing because of all this all this noise that's going well I think it can get lost in the noise I think that the real stability of the American average person whatever that is is a much more common sense grounded self assured go with the flow kind of I can take the hard times just tell me the truth about it individual I mean the rugged individualism which was synonymous with the American way back in the beginning I think there's more of that that still exists and we see


because the media has such a grip on the mindset that you have a very small percentage of people and it's owned by a very small set of people broadcasting the same message over and over and over and that's almost a kind of a mind control so even though they might be rah rah rah sis boom ba that you know this is like such and such uh I think a lot of people just don't buy into the propaganda I think there's a much more awareness of the economy is deteriorating look at what a crappy meal


cost me and this political rhetoric has gone too far they push the propaganda to the point where I can't even believe it they're so so wrong or their message is so inaccurate so that's really good for us because we get to you know use our Common Sense use discernment and realize yeah things are costing more I got to work harder to stay in place but I I can do it or I will do do it or I'm going to figure out a way to do it and I'm not paying as much attention to the propaganda because these people aren't


doing us any favors no matter who's in office and I think that's really a good thing I mean my take of course I'm very libertarian as you know but there's used to be an expression you don't hear anymore but those who govern least govern best and so you know give it back to us get out of our way let us accomplish what we can quit taxing us so hard let us be free and let us produce and get off our backs and that's not just America that's Canadians that's South America that's just about


every okay I think this has been very enlightening for me as usual and I think it's a good note to wrap up on but before I let you go I'll just ask if there's any final thoughts that you would want to leave people with well I just a little bit of a self-promotion there's a lot of people that are still on the fence that haven't taken action so I'm offering a uh something I haven't done experimenting with it so if you go to the morg report.com I'm giving a half hour


consultation with me personally not one the staff and you can have a chat with me to ask me anything about you know Finance the medals resource companies battery Metals rare Els whatever it is and I will do my best to help you and um you'll be signed up for the premium service after the conversation if you decide that the reports aren't but you have 60 days to decide so you can go in see all the companies I recommend read my editorials look at the work that the others provide by the way the uh Eng


golde trust book just came out and one of the guys that worked for me actually wrote the silver section so you know we're kind of non-nonsense people I mean I do have a slight sense of humor you know you see me laugh but point of being we're pretty serious about what we do here and so if you decided you didn't like it you would get a full refund and you would still have that conversation with so trying it again as an experiment try to get people that are new or coming back in the sector uh the benefit to get


let's say kicked off on the right foot so that they um have some confidence in you know what they're doing and why they're doing it what the best choices are that's great I think that's that's the perfect time right now to to do something like that so thank you very much for coming on to talk about silver and gold in the markets this is really helpful thank you Charlotte for having me of course and once again I'm Charlotte McLoud with investing news.com and this is David Morgan with the Morgan


report thank you for watching if you like this video make sure you subscribe to our Channel we'd also love to hear your thoughts so leave us a comment below we'll see you next time [Music]