Gold news

 [Music] I'm Charlotte McLoud with investing news.com and here today with me is Will rind CEO of granite shares thank you so much for being here great to have you sha thank you so much for having me back on back the of course really good to be catching up it has been a while since we last spoke and as I was getting ready for this interview I was looking back to our last conversation which I believe was in September and the thought that you kind of left us with at that time was that the market was probably going to do a

little bit better than people thought that it would which definitely I think that has panned out it does feel right now like people are getting a little bit concerned as they see the Magnificent 7 really driving the market so I wondered if we could start by getting your your thoughts on what's going on there you know absolutely so I think um you know as we discussed last time that I think that the conditions were Prime for the market to continue to to Rally or continue to grow and that is indeed

what's happened and I think really the story of this year is kind of continued a little bit in terms of last year magnificent s stops large tech companies outperforming um but I think what we're starting to see is a little bit more of a broadening out of that rally um Beyond just those large techs earnings more broadly Charlotte have been pretty decent across the board um so not just tech companies but really companies from all sectors so that's really been the story and obviously the

primary reason that helped you know Drive the major market indices at least in the US to all-time highs and do you see that continuing into 2024 is that going to continue to be the story I think though again at this point I don't see really any reason to be bearish or at least any Catalyst um Coming of in the immediate future that would derail things I think the the Federal Reserve you know cutting interest rates you know again the market has priced in certain number of cuts for this year but I think even if even if

that doesn't come to pass you know we're still an environment where your earnings have been really strong regardless I don't think even that is enough to really derail things I think it would have to be something like a very U very nasty shock on the inflation front um or some gear political concern regarding the the two Wars that are happening in the world at the moment you know something of that nature I think to to Spook people a little bit more right and definitely we want to check in on what's going on with the FED

in 2024 so you mentioned the market is priced in a certain number of rate Cuts we're kind of waiting to see when that turnaround will happen meanwhile the FED is telling us they want to see really clear evidence that inflation is trending back toward their 2% Target before they make a move so maybe we take a look at your outlook for inflation this coming year I think I'm I'm not sure I'm necessarily um away from consensus on inflation I think there's no doubt that inflation's coming down I'm not sure

that inflation's going to 2% this year it wouldn't be in back camp or certainly in 2% or below camp but you know I think that inflation numbers you know persistently or consistently have been coming down and so a 3% type number seems reasonable um in terms of where inflation ends up this year and what are you watching when you you kind of look toward where inflation are go what are the factors that you look at and is there anything that could derail that forecast for you I I guess yeah I look at the you

know clearly the CPI a number of those inputs in terms of that go into the major inflation industy and inflation me measures but so the FED likes to look at um I think that really the only thing that not the mean not the only thing of course there can be a number of different things that can derail inflation um expectations but you know again what we talk about on this show commodity prices is clearly what which um you know have been largely subdued in the last 12 months or so but starting to pick back up again you know as economic

conditions have approved so you Rising commodity prices is something that plays directly into inflation that could be a negative surprise um in terms of the numbers later on this year some you know hotter hotter than expected number from China again that's been so negative um but perhaps we're getting closer to the end in China um and therefore a positive surprise from the Chinese market is overdue so something to that effect could also um help on the inflation side I mean but really I think at the moment

the core numbers in terms of you know housing I think that's coming down uh Financial conditions obviously continue to to be to be tight um so probably you're looking at commodity prices um Andor some positive surprise from you you know market like China okay really good to go into that and you know we talked about how the market is expecting a certain number of cuts from the FED in 2024 are you in line with the market consensus there or what are you expecting from the fed this coming year yeah I think so and but again I'm

I'm not one of the people who sort of overly fixated on that you in other words if there's one or two cuts less than the market expect I don't think that is going to cause a major problem um so I think in an election year you know we can can talk about that um you know one would expect there to be some easing of conditions going into the election uh towards the end of this year so again for me I think there will be Cuts I'm in line with Market expectations on that front but again I

think this the the economy showing enough resiliency that I don't think it's going to matter too much if we come in more or less than expectations right and you mentioned we're in an election year I've been waiting to talk about the election I was telling myself for a while it's too early to go into this but now we're we're firmly in 2024 so any other considerations that investors should watch considering that we are in this type of year I just think again if you look back

in history that again probability-wise election year is typically a good year for the market and typically the year following an election is also a good year again we're talking regardless of who gets elected whether it's a Republican or a Democrat so I think you're looking at some of the um the signaling at least from the market and you know in the election year I would expect there to be some you know easing of financial conditions for obvious reasons um but I think the effects of

that also play out into the following year at least we can look back at history and say that probability wise it tends to be you know a good setup all right and you know as we're talking with the fend the other question I wanted to ask you about is the balance sheet so based on the last meeting minutes officials seem pretty Keen to discuss that in a little bit more detail in upcoming meetings so anything you could add there that we should be paying attention to I don't think that there's really

probably anything that you know would be you know bad uh bad of Earth shattering to add to that um other than clearly it's a concern not just for the FED but you know for the federal government for you know any government frankly in the world that is carrying huge um debt balances and that is something you know whether you're talking about the deficit here whether you're talking about um official government debt you know that these these debt piles are a big concern to a lot of people and you know will

need to be addressed so our audience is of course watching the FED quickly because this has an impact on the gold price but I want to ask you other gold price factors that you're going to be watching in this year coming I know we've talked previously about the importance of the US dollar you mentioned there's all these geopolitical things going on Central Bank buying is another topic that we've touched on previously so what are you paying most attention to when it comes to Gold I think really the the key factor

is is still going to be around the dollar and that sort of easing of or softening of the dollar um be the inflation expectations and interest rate expect expectations coming down but you know what has made gold so resilient um so far is not just the dollar is the geopolitical tensions the you know the stresses around the conflict that we've got going on in Ukraine and in Gaza and so these factors along with you know the demand picture that has continued to be so bright you know from the Central

Banking sector you know continues to put a bit on gold I know I know we don't usually do price predictions but broadly if we look at the upcoming year how do you see the gold price moving I think gold is you know what first of all gold has been resilient and again in the face of high interest rates um really in an environment that almost goes against what you would think behavioral wise the gold price would do I think that it sets up nicely for an environment where to me these three key factors you know move and gold Saab in

other words the dollar you know gets weaker you know in the election year particularly the year after I think inflation starts to come down helping interest rate to come down which eases obviously the the real uh cost of of gold um the holding cost of gold and then lastly the geopolitical tensions don't seem like they're really willing to go away quickly um and therefore will I think keep some some tension in the market again some interest and gold as defensive asset and then lastly you know

I think we have to say that the amount of cash that's sitting on the sidelines you know one of the key I think considerations for investors has been you know this environment where if you can get 5% on your money at the fed or even in a CD from a local bank if that starts to come down then again the the attractiveness of something like gold increases and I think start to see some rotation you know out of these uh cash asss FS into things like gold I think that kind of starts to touch on another

topic that I wanted to bring up with you because we do have as you mentioned gold historically high it's maintaining at these levels I know a lot of our audience still owns gold stocks and they're looking at their gold stocks and wondering okay when are they going to pick up when are we going to see them respond to the higher gold price so I wanted to check in with you and see if that's a disconnect that you've been seeing and what you think might be behind that yeah unfortunately it's a little bit

like history repeating itself um with regards to the gold stocks and you know again we go back to the last cycle and typically what happens and and it's no different in my mind this time around albeit you know everything has has its own nuances but fundamentally this is about um the inflation that companies are experiencing in terms of costs whether it be energy costs whether it be financing costs but inflation moving up faster or at a speed whereby we can't take advantage of the gold price gains

um in terms of production so it's almost like that we saw in the last cycle particularly in the in the kind of early 2000s where you know any gain from the gold price was eroded by inflationary cost cost and pressures so I think this time around it's a very similar story and so until those kind of start the subside for the mining companies it's difficult to see um how companies are going to M do materially better in this environment very okay thank you for going into that it's a tricky situation

I think especially for people who are are watching that happen so we've gone over what's going on in Gold pretty well I think but I also want to check in on Platinum so you've been bullish on Platinum for quite some time and it's really interesting because the market is in deficit but the price seems really range bound and we've even seen I think this past week anglo-american cutting its Workforce because of the low platinum prices so I want to check in on what you see going

forward in 2024 if you think that the market dynamics are going to be reflected in the price anytime soon well it's a good question I'd like to say the answer to that would be yes um but have been a bit disappointed by you know what's happened in in Platinum and again on what is from a fundamental perspective um a very attractive environment for any investor you know looking at a fundamental picture where Market's in deficit and you have you know more demand than you have Supply

but the the price hasn't seen to have react or responded in that way I think a big part of that is China um and you know the consumption that coming out of China you know has has not been there um given their economic problems I think again the the auto market despite I think still overall strength has to be said that there is there is sign there signs of weakness you know in the in the auto market you know manufacturers looking to cut back cost ET it hasn't been it hasn't been all for the Roses um

outside of just the basic supply and demand picture for platinum and I think you know it's something that I'm cautiously optimistic on um I hope that the price can can recover in this environment but it has been a bit challenging would you would you put silver kind of in that same basket because it's another one where we have these large deficit projections and the price kind of stuck there exactly um very very similar kind of story albeit again the nuances are always different but it it's a market

that I think you look at the precious metals complex it's really gold has been the standout has been the star of the show and I think the the of the economic Wes maybe maybe more narrative based and that's what gives um give some positives to to the Bulls in terms of the platinum and and uh silver markets but I think um largely those sort of negative narratives perhaps have you know taken more taken more precedent over the more fundamental picture I think yeah I think I definitely see that happening so on a

brighter note you know we're still relatively close to the beginning of 2024 so I was going to ask you where you see the most opportunity it can be in Commodities but I know you have a much more broader Outlook and set of things that you look at so most opportunity this coming year the to to me the big the biggest thing and again it's it's um just the Z Guist that we're at the moment is AI and of course within that you know the companies that benefit most from AI when video rising to be now one of the largest

stocks in the US market you know eclipsing Google eclipsing Amazon in terms of market cap that's been an incredible story and I think I think that will endure you know AI is I think the seminal theme not just of last year not this year but I think of years to come um so the technology Market you know has prospered in this environment for good reason I think outside of that you go back to gold and you know really from a commodity perspective I know one has you know caught caught a bid over the last few weeks but I I think in this

environment um you know this is one where the gold price has been very resilient but yet although we're sort of hovering around those all-time highs it seems to me like the fundamentals for gold are still positive this year I we talked about um you know the dollar we talked about inflation talk about the interest rates and of course the geopolitical situation um and the Central Bank buying so gold to me still stands out as being that that precious metal um that will still get the most traction will get the most attention

probably B um the best this year that's very interesting especially you know for me here we're very focused on the resource and Mining sector and one of the things that we hear is when we have new trends like AI popping up people are always talking about well it's going to take attention away from gold but it sounds like you know for you they can they can coexist perhaps these things can both Thrive at one in their own way oh absolutely I mean look as we as we've talked about with gold you know

for thousands of years that there have always been and there always will be new technologies that have developed and those technologies will sometimes compete with gold and sometimes compete with other Commodities and other times will happily coexist But ultimately gold is still gold gold is not going anywhere and you know the emergence of AI or these other things is not not going to to replace or gold or provide anything I think if anything is you know gold has shown is enduring value and we'll

continue to do St all right I think I think that's a nice balanced note to leave people with so thank you so much for coming on to talk about what's going on in the markets I'm sure we'll check in later this year and and see how things have panned out thank you charotte great to see you as always thank you having me back on of course and once again I'm Charlotte McLoud with investing news.com and this is will remind of granite shares thank you for watching if you like this video make sure you subscribe

to our Channel we'd also love to hear your thoughts so leave us a comment below we'll see you next [Music] time