Gold news

 [Music] [Music] I'm Charlotte McLoud with investing news.com and here today with me is eie Tucker editor of the Tucker letter thank you so much for being here great to see you in person yeah great to see you thanks for having it yeah the first time in a long time in person so very exciting and we're going to follow up today on really good conversation we had back in October you shared your thoughts on the next 90 days for gold I think we're basically at that 90day Mark so going to check my notes here and make

sure I get it right you had said we could see a move in Gold to 2150 maybe even 2200 and I believe gold did briefly get past that 2150 area so it's pulled back but still remains high and I wondered if we could look at the next 90 days yeah so I think uh I think what what if you're looking at this what you seeing is that we're maintaining this this all-time high level and every reason is out there for gold not to be doing great the economy is very slow real rates are are acting in a way that

would normally predict for gold to you know to be struggling the EO curb is no longer adverting it's now trying to reverse that a lot of heavy things happening and you were thinking gold would be weak during that time and it's very strong and I think we're going to move up to that 2150 to 2200 trading level by the middle of the year I mean this is this is something that that I see Happening by the middle of this year I think there's other things we could talk about that are indicating that

that's that's right and that'll be our new little Zone to be in but but people need to make a choice like there's two ways to play gold one way to play it is you can buy it and own it and you can kind of use it as a way to protect wealth which is really hard to accumulate and the second way is you can be a Trader and if you want to be a Trader these moves of 1% up up up up down down down like every single day the FED says they're going to do something rates oh it's down oh it's back up it's

this will get you in a spin cycle but if you want to be a Trader and you just want to trade it you don't care about preserving wealth you just want to play it this is really good but I've never been that interested in that because I feel like it kind of at the end you lose I mean you know you you win the battle you lose the war type thing so I'm I'm much more like I want to win the war I don't really care about the little Skirmish so so you can do either you just need to know who you are and what

you're doing this is secret of life right you're got to do anything you want if you're honest with yourself you said this is what I do you know so so anyway that's what you have to do with the gold market so here's how I'm going to play it you because people it's going to go to like 10,000 well I mean maybe but like that that would imply that the gold value in the world would be something like you know 50 trillion plus or something like that it's like I don't

know if that's really realistic I mean it doesn't really match with the rest of the assets that are that are around it doesn't make any sense and so I think I think you what you see is is that we're moving up so we keep moving up in these little directions and and gold is like heavily traded I mean I watch it in the Bloomberg every day for decades now and I mean you'll trade in an active day you'll trade half a years worth of Mind Supply and that real gold never touches that but that's what sets the price and

people say h it's manipulated it's not really like that it's not like manipulated is just highly financialized it's a highly liquid market and there's like tons of physical tons of Futures tons of options tons of options on Futures I mean it's like really really moving all the time and that's why when that move happened on a Sunday night you broke into new eyes when you saw it rip right back down it's because there's a lot of money to be made in gaming those moves and there's a lot of people doing

it and and frankly they're a little bit they're a little bit more active than if you're at home you know using like a quest trade account you know it's like these guys are a little bit moving a little faster you know so they got like hundreds of Bloomberg Terminals and they're up on night Asia I mean you you met your match but my point is is that as we move to these levels so when you look back it's like pretty obvious this is like it's a pretty it's a pretty strong position the charts it okay and

and keeping in mind that for G you do have that long-term F Focus you're in it for the long term what drivers are you looking at you mentioned maybe we can talk about that so for let let's look at 2024 what you're paying attention to yeah so I mean I think everybody's like the fed's going to reverse their stance but the thing is is that is that they're not really so so like I think people misunderstand the the the rate that they set is not really that important it's like they've set the rate at say five

and a half five and a quarter five and a half but the the two-year treasury is is substantially lower the tenure treasury is is even lower right so it's like is the rate really matter I mean is that really what's going on here what they've been doing is they've been draining the system of liquidity that's what they've been doing and so they they use that rate to Corral that money they printed and you see it in the reverse repo market and they've been pulling that out

it's down to 600 billion started at 2.2 trillion to make things simple don't be thinking at home this is too confusing it's not the balance sheet got to 9 trillion it's 7 and a half now so it's exactly the same number that's what's happening they want to pull all that out when are they going to do it it's very easy it's 90 billion per month so by the summer it it'll be out and that's why I say that I think the target will be hit in the summer because as that gets down

low things will start rattling a little bit and they'll come with some new it's a very managed system it's very managed don't be thinking like they're in there studying inflation trying to help you this is a managed economics system and it got a little a little hot a few years ago so they had to dial it back yeah and that's that's another point that I want to follow up on from the previous conversation as you had told us we're heading for this big reality check Q one

is probably when it all hits the wall so maybe we can take a closer look at that now as well since we're in q1 yeah it's very tense I mean we're in the beginning of q1 you know we we we just come out of the we have the you know Chinese New Year happening now we came out of the the US New Year Western New Year I mean you have this periods of like what's everybody doing I mean you hit an alltime high in the uh spy it was so it's very it's one of these times really everything's trying to settle you know

this is not normally a time when you take a big position and so I think I think what you'll you'll see is this quarter drags on is that is that there's a lot of things are going be very tense I mean there's a story last week where blackston quit paying the mortgage on a uh office on Broadway not their office but an investment property and the loans being sold for 50 cents of the dollar all this stuff is starting to like build up you start to see all this and that that's the same time going on with the

US uh election cycle which you know gets things very tense in the US you know we we like we do a real like uh you know Street brawl is what we do for the for the actual uh cycle presidential nominees but but basically all this stff is happening now and as as that repo number goes from you started at 2.2 trillion at 600 billion it's going go to zero zero is where it started in 2019 even before the pandemic it was zero so it went to 2.2 that's exactly the amount of money they printed okay so that money

went in the system keep things going now they pull it back out so the math Works where you know by end of March you should be somewhere around 300 you know billion and and so as you get closer to zero I mean 100 billion is basically zero because there's always something moving around in there but it's like you know 2.2 trillion was excessive so anyway that's what I think the deal is I mean like let me give you an example I always tell people oh they're like I got a huge tax bill I mean I have a huge tax

B so like you know I don't want to be trying to come up with my tax payment March 31st right it's like I don't want to do that just too much when I look at this stuff happening I'm like I want to be able to chill out you know for a few months because what's going to happen is is that when this thing rattles the market is so heavily traded it's not stocks like people don't get it people don't really trade stocks it's all derivatives so like if a hedge fund wants to buy

stock they don't actually buy the stock anymore they buy options on the stock they buy a synthetic version of the stock and then dealers have to hedge that that's what creates all this volume so you have this giant ball of air and it's and it's like you know when this thing goes in a little bit everything gets wobbly so when it's wobbly you don't want to be like well I got to pay for my kids braces or something I mean it's like you don't want to do that so I mean you want to kind of look at this

and say this is this is the way this game's being played is that we had these occasional panics these like rough periods very brief remember the co thing was like three weeks you lost a third of the value of the stock market three weeks and then all of a sudden boom shot all the way the other direction because of something that fed did that's the pattern here even even 2008 remember it was like you know things happen really fast and then turn it's not a real Market a real Market you would work

through a recessionary cycle you would work through bank loans and you know you just all this stuff you don't do that anymore you know it's like you you you party party party till the cops come you know and then you like shut down for 30 minutes till they leave and you boom you party again that's what we're doing here okay so forget about like the moral implications like don't even worry about that it's just that like how do you survive how do you work how do you save how do you invest you know how do you

live in that environment and I think that's really what we're what we're talking about things in Vancouver as you know are pretty dry like I mean this you know you can this is a City built on speculation and you can feel it in the real estate market in the real estate market they've only had one year of high rates one year of difficult imagine if they had to come to the gold market and there be like you know 10 years between both markets but but basically people lose sight of that how

do you put your finger on the PSE that ask any I just said lunch with my one our Brokers I mean it's like it'll tell you it's like slow it's slow slow slow slow now it doesn't mean there's nothing happening it just means that like you don't want to go out and fish for one fish I mean you want to go out and fish from the salmon are running because it's no good to catch one fish accidentally I mean it's like you want to fish when the whole population is coming Upstream

that's when the fishing is good you know that's what you want to do and so we we when we turn that corner I think that's what's ahead and until now and then you want you want to keep your keep your head attached okay so to be clear just so I understand hopefully q1 we are proceeding toward this crash like scenario why don't we just say why don't we just say feel things rattling I mean I'm not sure we we we're going to have a crash I think I think I think when things rattle it means something like um

a merger can't get done because of the financing or um a commercial loan that's big you know like a major commercial loan can't roll over because the the the liquidity is not there and that and there's headlines of you know will blackon have to whatever and you know this type of thing is like rattling so a crash you know is kind of a different circumstance yeah but like this rattling is a problem because the system in the US is totally dependent on more money flowing in and so money's going out

right now it's going out it's going out 90 billion a months out and what I'm saying is that you know when you hit that floor the Fed so you can track the fed's repo you can track the fed's balance sheet whatever you want at um the Fred website it's so easy they made it's the best thing the FED ever did I bet you the FED balance sheet gets to 7 trillion and there's a turn I bet you that's their target you know it went it went to nine after the pandemic and I bet you it goes back seven before it

goes again let let's not forget in the 90s it was 400 billion okay so so you know it was like you know 22 23 times bigger at pandemic so it went so every time it goes up a little like a stock chart and and and people okay so what I notice always like conferences people it's like they don't understand what's going on here it's like it's like the thing is going up like it's going up you know when when they want to short the market and stuff I'm like good luck to you it's going up

maybe it goes down I doubt you'll be able to guess when but you come back in five years it's up you your house is going to cost more it's it's like your grocery bill is going to be more it's not really like inflation it's that you've just got the the the trajectory when you're pumping money in is up that's where things go is they they go higher and uh and so I think people need to try to play the short term carefully but also be playing the the long term you want to buy things that are going to

go up and the gold market is smaller than it was 25 years ago I mean it's like Hershey is the size of newon I mean think about that it's like candy bar versus gold bar I mean Hershey and new which one would you rather have and people here say I rather have new but like look I mean Hershey you know it's kind of a monster I mean it's pulled back because of the eipic everybody's afraid that nobody will have chocolate bars anymore but I don't think it's true chocolate is delicious it is I yeah I

could support the chocolate there you go yeah okay and so again if I'm if I'm understanding properly so for you you could if you wanted to have a difficult time you could try to trade this but for you you're looking more to get through the turmoil get to the other side any the suggestion you gave back in October generally short equities long energy and precious Meadows and so I wondered is that still the way you're approaching it and can we get any more details on the the energy and I'm shocked about energy

I mean I'm I'm I'm okay so I'm I'm stunned you got the H Rebels you know firing rockets at oil tankers oil tanker rates are way up okay like is nobody you can't go you can't go through the the Red Sea I mean you got to go you know the Suz is like off limit you got to go all the way back uh um down around you know South Africa and up the size it's just crazy it takes like way too long but then gas prices are cheap I mean in Florida it's 350 a gallon is as much gas

as you want you couldn't even there's no way you could even use it all and um with oil so in the newsletter Tucker letter we we we did a big thing last year on oil service stocks because um they're super profitable you know it's like it's like they're debt-free and it's amazing and um I'm just stunned that like we haven't really seen that the the people are so negative on oil you know it's like they can't even look at like an offshore you know Service

Company or whatever that's like super profitable it's busy they have like backlog you know they can't even do all the work and it seems like really really cheap so I mean I'm I'm hoping old oil doesn't go the way of gold you know which which the gold miners have stayed largely debt light and profitable for years and still you know don't really have anyone trading them so I just the problem with with Shorty equities is is like you have some things happening these big shifts I mean we did some chip

stocks in the letter last year and they've really done great and um we'll probably do some more you know so people at EB tucker.com they can follow this but but the thing with the chip scene is that like you have this geopolitical factor in the chip world where it's like the the American companies are just like they they outsourced it's like they don't they don't have anything I mean it's like if you didn't have a kitchen in your house and then all of a sudden all the

restaurants went away and you got to rebuild a kitchen I mean it's like you want to be in the kitchen business you know because everybody's done this and so that's what happened in the in the chip scene and so and so it's really hard to say like I'm in to short equities because um I don't think I mean everything in this room has involves chips and uh it's different from like saying it involves copper because uh the chips are are are or something that now we see is like a military asset kind of

I mean like you you don't want your enemy having all your chip capability and so it's really complicated I mean so I I think you just have to be careful with with the the sector but I do think I I I I will be stunned if like there's not some sort of repositioning in energy because um it's a big problem I mean I mean securing supplies and you know and it's it's just a really it's a really big deal and I think we still need quite a bit of I do I do think you know we're

we're entering an era where the you know fossil fuels are not really really it's it's very it's not like so simple to say oh we we're not going to use them anymore it's like well I mean you are moving into this new Zone and it's important to realize that like you know we we we we want to invest with that mindset that we we are shifting in something new and um that that's a real thing so yeah on the note of energy I think one thing I'm hearing a lot is will'll need all types of energy So when

you say energy are you are you looking at just as oil yeah mostly that's right I think some of the other areas have been really hard to invest in it's been really difficult and so I don't I'm not a big fan of making things like super super complicated I mean um you know like the uranium trade's hot right now it's just been it took it went to sleep for about I don't know 12 years or something like that and then it got really hot you know so it's it's kind of like things will get hot like that I

think um you can you know there's a way to play that uh but there's so many different things going on I think you have to pick the easy money like you want to play Babe Ruth style where you you Lumber up there like knock one out of the park you don't want to like fight it out every single day it's really it's really difficult you know and so there's other things happening in energy I mean like for instance the whole battery mechanism is changing for for the cars I it's just like to to kind of like stay

up and to play that as a as an investor that's not um multinational it's just very it's very challenging okay uh we will wrap it up just in a minute I want to end by asking you I think does any final advice actionable advice for investors right now look I mean I I I I think people have a hard time understanding that you know you're not going to live forever right so I mean like this is like a really good time okay I mean you're you're you fast forward five years and your

movements are going to be you know more tracked not less your money flow is going to be more tracked not less um your you're your you think your kids are distracted with their phone now you know wait till your grandkids have a an implant in their brain this is your life I mean like you know you got to do this money stuff you got to do this investing stuff you gotta do some work stuff but like you gotta live I mean seriously like you I'm not trying to be like hooky about it but I mean sometimes I'm thinking with people I'm

like what are you what are you doing right now to live I mean you're at an investment conference so it's like you're learning you're you're at the next level you're already running faster than your peers but like don't forget to live and and what people don't understand Charlotte this like really important is that when you do that you're investing it's better because you're not sitting there thinking like once I do this you know 10 bagger then I'll really start living it's like you

can live now and you can do the 10 bagger you can do all that stuff and you're you'll actually spot the trend people don't understand that about me but it's like I'm really loose on these things you know like I I do a lot of like different stuff and I write you know I write all the time and I love it and and you spot things when you're not absolutely determined and like you got your head in the in the books you know all the time I me you have to like keep your mind free and live your your life

and take that trip and do those things you know with people and then you're you're going to become more successful it's really it's it's like my friend encouraged people to take Friday off for instance he was like this counselor guy he's like take for people like I won't make enough money because you make more because what will happen is is that you'll find that your life becomes more effective when you listen up a little bit you know and do these things that you enjoy and I think people should

really you know we're going to get this right don't worry we're going to get this type of thing like this this thing we're doing here is it's really good you know we're we're going to we're going to come out ahead a lot of people and that's going to be great but like on the LIF stop you know get busy Lon yeah I think people really appreciate hearing those those bits of Life advice for you and it makes total sense if you take a break then you have more more ideas more

to put into what you're doing so thank you so much very good once again I'm Charlotte McLoud with investing news.com and this is e Tucker with the Tucker letter thank you for watching if you like this video make sure you subscribe to our Channel we'd also o love to hear your thoughts so leave us a comment below we'll see you next [Music] time