[Music] I'm Charlotte McLoud with investing news.com and here today with me is John fenick portfolio manager and consultant at fenick Consulting thank you so much for joining me great to have you here thanks Char nice to see you again of course and you know it hasn't been too long since we last spoke but there is a lot to catch up on so I think where we'll begin today is as we usually do with gold and exciting week for Gold we had it up above 2,000 at least for a little while this week so going to start
easy on this and ask you you know what are the most important factors for gold that you're seeing right now well we talked on your show after the March financial crisis this year that gold had a new floor put in on it right uh you and and I interviewed just before that at vck and we were talking about the 1800 level holding which was actually correct there um then in March when we talked we talked about the financial crisis adding a new Florida gold and you saw gold take off to almost an all-time high right um and and so
that is very bullish um then you saw that period of time from the spring to the summertime where we had about five months where the gold price never dipped below 1900 in consecutive days which I gets lost on a lot of investors I think that's never happened before in history so there's a lot of interesting price action that's happened this year Charlotte um and now since we last interviewed I think our interview uh last time was around October 1st and we had October 7th with what happened in
Israel right so like that's another floor now on go with a lot of other investors coming in and saying wow I never knew that was even on the table right I never knew that international relations were this poor in certain parts of the world and so you know it's I think the gold set up here is beautiful and you and I have been talking like this for about two and a half three years now and I've been very guarded on the price of gold you know I've never talked new highs ever I've
never said 2500 this or 5,000 that we are saying you know as a result of what happened now October 7th that you are going to see a new all-time high in Gold next year which is new for us because we've been pretty pragmatic on the price of gold you know and just saying it's going to take some time but now if it wasn't for you know bit coin doing so well AI doing so well Tech doing so well in general you you'd have an alltime high probably already in our view but it'll just happen next year that's
that's fine with us we get more time to build positions and so we don't buy that uh I think you know the setup looks beautiful if you look at a long-term chart of gold over 15 or 20 years yeah you know there's there's a lot of distractions out there for people but it does look like things are going to come back around to Gold sooner or later and I'm glad that you brought up the the war that's going on right now because that's kind of interesting to me too because typically you see when
there's a conflict like that maybe it gives that shortterm boost to the price then people forget about it but it seems like now now is that having kind of a greater effect because there's so many other things that are on gold side at the moment yeah I mean the geopolitical piece for us is important and so that just added to the reason why you should own physical gold and or gold related invest ments um as I've said on your show before you know for gold to go from 1900 to 2000 is great um like it just
did right but that's a 5% move we're not interested in 5% Moves In what we do we're interested in in outsized gains in Gold stocks that will have leverage to a move in the price of gold right so there's many that we've talked about in your show before but um you know for us right now I mean Shez uh just real quick I mean cardier had a really good good news piece this week uh ecff which we've mentioned on your show at least twice um what I like since we last talked for we
should bring this up marathon gold and and caliber did a deal right um you know Mar the marathon gold deal if you were I owned a very small piece of marathon but you know if you're a marathon bigger shareholder you probably weren't happy with that deal and so we're looking for gold companies silver companies nickel companies Etc that are not looking to sell right now we're really really not interested in the Takeover kind of thing because these prices are ridiculous I don't want to see a 30% premium on a
ridiculous price I want to see you know uh the ability for a leader to lead through this time and get to the other side and this isn't a knock on Marathon I don't know the inner workings there I'm just saying that Philipe at at at cardier wants to get to the other side and he has a plan to get there when you look at his Insider ownership it's heavy um he's got a group of investors that own about 8 to 10% that are just High net worth He has ago which ons 15 a half% he's got 03 mining which ons about
15% when you add just that up it's about 40% of the entire float right so that just to educate your your listeners is going to block a hostile takeover right because they're not going to sell for what the price is now and they're not going to sell for a 25% premium either I don't think so that's interesting for us we want to build in in names like that that have a plan have you know some some some people on their side that see that this gold price is going to break out soon and we're not
going to sell for for a lower price right I think that's important to know yeah I think that is that's an important distinction and it's good to go through the examples so that people know exactly what you're talking about I think we'll we'll talk a little bit more about companies as we keep going I do also want to bring up so before we turn the camera on we're talking about the latest CPI data and the the effect that that's had on sentiment in the market so I wanted to ask you to expand those
thoughts and tell me what you see going on there yeah so we were saying on your show last year that CPI was running real hot and we have said multiple times on your show and others that the FED means business and until we get close to a 2% mandate they are not going to back down and now you know at the 3% level they're getting very close right so like that's was meaningful on November 14th where the CPI read came in .1% lower than expected but at the same time it's lower right and that Trend the previous month
was up so I mean seeing a drop like this the market loved it and not just gold and silver it was the broad Market that really loved it so I think November 14th changed some things for us because right after that the FED Futures uh meeting like the CME U uh you know a website that I've given your listeners before um it basically just said that the 20 to 25% probability of a 25 basis point hike in December and January both almost immediately went to like 5 to 7% so you're seeing a very low chance of a
hike now in December very low chance in January and then in March what's interesting to me is that now there's a 30% chance of cut so you have a 30% chance of a 25 basis point cut on March 13th or whatever the day that falls on and that's really bullish because if you remember the last time we interviewed only 12 well excuse me all of the 19 people on the FED had said no Cuts in 2023 that's not wonderful if you're a gold and silver investor because you want that you know uh acques move from
the fed and we're not getting we're we're seeing you know them be consistently guarded and hawkish most of the year so now the tables may be turned as early as March I'd say easily by Q too and we're trying to invest ahead of that because when that comes you're going to get another flow of money I think into the money STS okay interesting interesting and okay I have a point that I want to ask you about when it comes to inflation so what I what I have heard at times in the
past is you know it's coming back down it's coming back down but it's that last little chunk before you get back to 2% that might be the hardest so what are your thoughts on that how do you think that plays out that is a great question I mean I don't know how I think it's sort of like you have to follow the tape and the tape right now is telling you that we're going to see a significant pause if nothing else right and that is difference and that's what is getting us more excited about what we're seeing in
our sector because if you look at GDX for example it went from like the 26 range all the way to 29 plus today and that's a really nice move since the November you know news that we're discussing so you know we need to see GDX break 30 um with some Authority and then it's going to have some resistance at 32 or 33 but I mean getting through 30 um I think by the end of the year will get investors much more interested as we enter next year um but going back to your point I mean I I think uh that last
1% is going to be extremely difficult uh to get to 2% as I've said on your show before whether it's 2 three5 it doesn't matter all of this feels like you know 15 to 20% inflation uh we were just talking off camera about how crazy hotel prices were in Toronto and some of the places we have to go to uh at these conferences and and that's not changing it's getting worse so I mean if you're traveling out there you really feel it I just came off the 13-day road show and the prices I paid were absolutely
astronomical um and I'm not staying in really fancy places it's it's just this is where we are right there's there's a um for lack of a better term a narrowing of the middle class uh it's it's like either you have the money to go do stuff or you don't and it's getting worse and that's really unfortunate yeah yeah it does feel bad looking at those travel prices I haven't yet checked my my credit card statement from when I was just traveling in the US and I know the exchange rate is also
going to hurt with our poor Canadian dollar uh anyways you know one of our other topics that we have focused on before is we've talked about recession and I think in our last talk you mentioned we're setting up for a recession into 2024 meanwhile though we do have people are still looking at the fed's progress and thinking maybe we get that soft Landing so horse want to check in with you there yeah I mean look the data that we saw from CPI November 14th supports more of a soft Landing kind of scenario but
when you look at Pal's comments just 13 days before that on the FED Day November 1st he was basically saying we're going to have a soft Landing which was new for his kind of rhetoric right I mean I I mean that's that's going all in in my opinion that's that's like really going out of the LM and what happens if you're wrong what happens if there's some unforeseen event like we were just talking about geopolitically that we can't control we can't foresee well then
they're going to have to walk that back and and that's why we remain uh pretty confident that what we'll see a recession by you know we've been saying by by junisha as you know back in May of this year when I saw Tech and AI just take off and uh other factors were were you know the real estate market was was less affected than I was expecting um although I will say like if you look at the the the short in the real estate ETF World which is re that's what what what we use is a beautiful looking chart it
has pulled back but we've made a lot of moneyy shorting real estate since January of 2022 so you know we did cover some of that around November 14th because TLT the the 20-year Bond started to move up and that's going to be something you look for as an indicator to cover shorts that are interest R sensitive but it's look I mean we can make money in this market I think going forward into next year Charlotte in the mining sector in the energy sector on the long short side I mean there's a lot
of opportunities as we enter next year so you know sitting here right now I feel really good about what we own good good and I think we can shift back over to looking at companies right now so we always make sure to check in with you on the stocks you're watching and where I thought we could begin is with uranium because that's also very hot right now uranium above $80 per pound this week so what are you seeing there well one interesting Dynamic that spra pointed out in their white paper
last week was that the uranium price is actually up more this year as a commodity than the average Equity the average Equity is up like 35% or so and then the price of uranium is up over 55% so that something's got to change there right I mean like the price of a commodity generally is never above uh the price of equities because equities have a lot more risks to them generally speaking right so I think there is going to be some catchup on the I don't necessarily think uranium is going to
fall I think that uh the equities are playing catchup right now and if you look at the sector look at what fishen did they they you know did a really nice raise a number of weeks ago uh uranium royalty I just presented with Scott Melby and Zurich uh he sat right next to me and had some interesting things to say about the sector's growth into next year um uroid did a really nice raise and then uh the stocks bounced right back right uh Dennison same thing DNN I mean they basically did a very large
raise and and are now higher than the raise price um so that's all really bullish when you look at the sector um we still own Dennison we still own sroy we own um uh Ur which is the uh the biggest Equity ETF out there it's a nice way to play the sector in a general way but we also own a lot of forum which we've mentioned on your show before um I think I mentioned that in August at 4 to 4 and A2 cents and I may have even said it was an insane price and I rarely go out on a limb like that but it wasn't Sav because
then they had a discovery in September and the stock went from 4 cents to 15 cents so that's the potential that you have in the uranium space right now is that there is tremendous upside in some of these smaller names because they have been so beat down when you look at a three-year chart of forum the 40 uh the threeyear high was 47 the low was right when we interviewed at 4 cents so you know how is something down 90 plus perc when it's run by someone like Rick merer who's been in the business 40 years it
doesn't make any sense so that's one of the things that we do well sh is we keep in touch with Rick on a monthly basis we keep in touch with most of our Juniors like phelip and cardier on a monthly basis I want to get updates on good and bad I don't want the good news only I want to hear you know hey what happened with those drill results that you didn't like you know was that exactly what you expected if not tell me a little bit more about that and get some color that yeah I think that's that gives some
insight into your process there definitely really helpful and okay so let's let's keep talking about the stocks that you have on your radar right now I was going to I was going to ask you if you have one that you are most excited about in 2024 that might be a bit of an unfair question there might be more than one so I'll I'll put it out there for you you you and I should probably talk about that in January I usually do those kind of conversations in January to say years are like you know but I'm happy to
answer that it's a valid question um you know when I look at um the entire landscape out there there's so many values um I mean if you're looking just for 2024 gosh um I have to say that I think some of these gold juniors are just absolutely crushed and gold will make a new eye next year so I've already mentioned cardier um you know again as long as something like that doesn't sell you know at a 30% premium then I think the upside is is is very strong and something like that I honestly think
like usau um at 324 here right now um they're going to get their permits I really strongly believe that in Wyoming and that could happen as early as March maybe April of next year so that being a NASDAQ stock with a very low float I mean I'm talking like 10 million shares um again they have have the ability to block and take over because I own some shares the former CEO owns shares the chairman owns shares the current CEO own shares they have funds it's Switzerland that own shares none of these entities
that I just named are selling at 324 we're not going to sell at four buch we're not going to sell at 450 we're not interested in a small gate we're interested in a larger gate right and and once you cross that $5 Mark Charlotte in the uh being a US ticker that brings in a whole another wave of buying if you look at the chart you'll see that over the course of a three or five year look every time that thing goes above five bucks it just starts to move because Brokers at maril Lynch
Brokers at Morgan Stanley Brokers at Wells Fargo they can all buy that stock NOW generally speaking um that brings in a whole another you know group of buyers into a stock that has very little you know public float okay okay thanks for sorry to limit you with the question if you had any others that you wanted to mention please go ahead well we mentioned tarium on on the last one and I know that sort of an outlier for many listeners yeah it's something again I I really had no uh following on On salarium up until about
a year and a half ago I started to talk to Ty uh I was referred to him and um you know Ty has he works very hard and and I like that in a CEO it's it's it's easy to fold your hand in this market and and Tai's not that type of individual um the stock you know has a big seller out there let's be honest the last time I mentioned it on your show was around just under 7 cents and now it's at 5 a half so we're down from where we mentioned it but you know we bought more today um we'll continue to
buy on weakness here between now and the end of the year because I think that I'm very interested in the trend Charlotte and that trend is Commodities that are heavily produced in China because I think over the next two years who's to say when this is going to happen but if there is a China Taiwan conflict China is going to pull the rug and not deliver some of the medals in my opinion um and I'm not the only one who feels this way there's a lot of smarter people than me that are talking about this some of
which like Chen Linn that are Chinese and has a better read on this than I do um and so Chen Linn interviewed Ty doery in July if you go to YouTube and check it out it's a pretty good interview and he brought that point up because he's like a big solar panel guy and delium is a component in every solar panel right so without getting to myopic it's something where it's it's it's a really interesting play at these prices because you can't replace that right it's it's
on the critical mineral list um another one that comes to mind that's a new name for us is uh Power uh sorry golden medal resources and uh that one I just met with the CEO Oliver in London here a couple days ago for about two hours and we went through the story you know they are a heavy tungsten Junior play but what's interesting is that they're in Nevada and Tung tungsten is a major again major produced in China over 80% of the world's tungsten produced there um there's going to be some us if you
don't believe me take a look at Talon medals right Talon in November just had news about um I think it was a large US government agency I don't know this stock but had come you know to a to an understanding with them that they were going to partner and that's really positive news in the commodity space when you see that kind of action um it may not you know mean immediate price appreciation and the stop but it's it's showing you that the US does understand that there's going to
be problems and Supply demand imbalances going forward and I think tungsten is just flying under the radar here because it's used in a lot of uh defense type strategies you know over 10% of the world's tungsten that's produced is used just for defense so um it got me interested because of the jurisdiction and because Oliver is a sharp Guy and um it's something that we're taking a look at um lastly uh Power nickel is a newer name for us uh kind of falling along in the lines of
Talon um that is an these nickel jors look absolutely outstanding right now I mean they're they're so beaten up that something's got to give here I mean nickel's a real commodity um it works in in in our view uh in 2024 and 2025 because you could have some disruptions if you look at Indonesia being the largest um you know producer of nickel globally they have a regime change coming February 2024 now the guy that's been in power has been there since I believe October of 14 so someone who's
been in power almost 10 years is Al theor he has been very supportive of nickel what happens if you get a regime change and that's not the case you have a supply demanded ballot and I think that's going to be you know headlight news so how and nickel we really like um they' they've done some really good things here over the last month in terms of news flow um they've raised cash from two different entities over the last you know since Bieber Creek so what what is that two months um the Ticker on that is
PN PN uh in Canada PN pns in the states beautiful looking chart uh for aigle Jr because it's just kind of bouncing you range bound now and probably will move higher into next year okay thanks for going over those I think definitely CR medals close to home really makes sense as a theme for people to be looking at the other point that I wanted to mention just before we're wrapping up here is in our previous interview I think you you mentioned just briefly tax loss selling and we're coming up to that season and I know that
people have a lot of questions about that I've seen comments asking how did people do this strategy one of our most popular articles on the site is about tax s selling so thoughts on how people can approach that absolutely um I am different than most of my peers and that many will say well hey it's different this year because we saw so much selling in July and August we're not going to get it in in November December that's completely wrong uh because I look at the screen 60 hours a
week right when I'm not traveling and I'm telling you there are huge sellers out there right now and a lot of the names we track or own and think about it this way for your listeners if you were in on the IPO of that stock helps Finance them in a very low round right meaning like two three four years ago let's say your company as a hedge fund or private Equity Firm is in trouble well you're selling everything you have to sell right that's Force liquidation it's just happening so like you have a
date you want to sell by generally and usually that's going to be be your end right and so these these companies uh will not sometimes work with the company meeting the Mining stock CEO and let them know they're doing this they're just going to sell right and then it causes this huge price disruption um I saw that on Thunder Mountain gold today thmg we've been out there for two weeks on the bid at a very low price and got filled why because someone took it from 5 cents down to 037
in one trade 144,000 shares I think it was and so we're just out there 20% away and somehow we got filled um it's just that time of year so I coach my followers and my clients put one order by the bid and Mas so if it's you want to get filled by be out there at you know five or a little lower but then have something 20% away 15% away 10% away somewhere in there that's going to be your dream fill and and maybe you get lucky and that's how we've made money in this in this sector charl we don't jump
at things we don't chase anything uh we're very patient value investors and that's something I think I could help some of your listeners with as we enter next year um you know being patient is really important in mining it's easy to chase but it's it's not a great strategy unless you're in a 2020 you know where you're coming out of a v-shaped type recovery and you know you've got wind in your back right now it's very suspect right it's more of a rifal approach to
the market so we'd love to you know hear from some of your listeners and see what we can do to help um I proba when gold breaks to new High I'm not going to be as available we're uh we're going to be there next year very true very true all right so just as we're finishing up if you had any final thoughts I think this will probably be our last conversation until January when we see each other at V so any any last thoughts I would just tell people to hang in there and if you don't need to
do a tax loss sale don't do it I mean I think in our sector right now in gold and silver in particular we got more interested in gold and silver stocks as a result of what happened October 7th and silver has been very frustrating because it has over the last you know two calendar years traded more like like an industrial metal but what happens if it starts trading more like a precious metal next year or the year after I think that's very possible and so we want to buy stuff that is completely
thrown out the window here because we do think that silver is moving higher we're trading at 2350 and ounce silver right now Gold's just under 2,000 when you divide that gold ounce of 2000 let's call it by 2350 you come up with about an 85 gold silver ratio as we sit here right now every time you get close to 90 going back to the 1980s silver looks pretty attractive as an investment so we're not buying silver right now we're buying silver equities uh we've talked about it few in your show before but you
know names that either have news like silver tiger just came out with some news on their pea looked really good they've got seven analysts as a junior stock right so like what happens to a good silver market to that stock well it's not going to be at 11 and a half cents anymore because you've got seven powerful analysts that are going to start writing up a stock like that most Juniors have one analyst maybe two right uh maybe not so it's it's a really interesting story um we're looking for
names like that right now that we can kind of sip through the rubble and pick and you know hold on to a better time okay all right well we'll be looking forward hopefully to those better times in 2024 I think we'll leave it there for now this is really great thank you for coming on to talk about what's going on in the markets my pleasure and happy holidays to everyone of course and once again I'm Charlotte McLoud with investing news.com and this is John fenick with penic Consulting thank you for watching if you
like this video make sure you subscribe to our Channel we'd also love to hear your thoughts so leave us a comment below we'll see you next time
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