Gold news

 [Music] I'm Charlotte cloud with investin news.com and here today with me is Chris bosy president of Neptune Global thank you so much for joining me great to have you here again it's great to be on your show again Charlotte really be good to be catching up with you and of course where we're going to start is with gold so we have gold right now at historically high price levels and yet we see investors feeling a little bit hesitant about this move wondering whether it's real you had

shared some data with me related to your PMC index that you said validates that move so really interested to get into that and I think that's where we should begin that's great I could bring this up um in a second and yeah it's interesting that gold is breaking to new highs and really doesn't have any resistance in front of it and there's a lot of geopolitical and macroeconomic forces but you don't see the enthusiasm in the market but um as you invited me to share um I'd like to share this chart so this

is a chart for it's the basically the PMC index which is this green line which is just to remind if anyone in the listening isn't familiar the PMC index is a is an index that's comprised of the four precious metals and the allocation is not even between them it's actually weighted for what we would consider a good Investment Portfolio so it's more skewed where the investment dollars are going into gold followed by silver and platinum Palladium and it's been in the market and it's actually been it gives a

nice view of how the metals are moving as a group in a portfolio vers now with a chart like this the individual Metals now just so you know Palladium is not showing on this chart it's part of the index but Palladium is really not something that retail investors typically typically go into um they're more interested in Gold Silver and platinum um but we'll talk about how Palladium plays in this now this goes back to December of 2008 so we have a 15-year track record here as I mentioned

this green line is for the PMC index as you can see the PMC index moves along and the other metals generally go above it for a while maybe they're outperforming the other metals and that blend return and then they go below it a good example is way back in 2009 101 when silver took off like silver does right it's so volatile when it moves to the upside it it outperforms and then it comes back to Earth um so it shot up it was trading and Performing outperforming the PMC index and then it Came Crashing

Down in 2013 and 14 and basically has been below the index ever since now the important thing is we're talking about gold today an investor may know of course this gold yellow line is gold for the entire time gold has not has underperformed the index so what that's telling me is even though gold was going up and it's performed quite well the other metals maybe not all of them like Platinum but Palladium and silver at times were outperforming and they were moving on up other drivers and we know

Palladium and and platinum and silver are more industrial sort of or like Metals so gold was doing fine but not outperforming the index and gold moves on different drivers right gold is money the others are Industrial Metals but here we come now here we are 2024 and for the first time in the history since this index has been available gold is now outperforming the other medals now padium was way above it um way above the uh the return of the index up until last year we know padium had a tremendous run for seven eight

years and basically has come crashing down so if you were to if padium was overate on this you would see it way up with a we know a return that really outperformed and now it's come crashing down behaving a lot like silver does with the extreme moves so but what this is telling me is again gold is breaking out the money is moving more to Gold the economy is slowing down probably because the industrial metal are easing off in price and the interest is more in the properties of money which is what gold

is so if you overlay that with what we see going on in the world geopolitically macroeconomic that's Al what I believe supporting and gold is telling us you know this is the time to be into gold so when people say well maybe I don't want to go into gold because it's at Old Time High I'm buying at the high well yes it would have been better if you bought several years ago but I also believe we are in the Third Leg of a secular bull market that began for gold in 2001 and this leg is going to show the returns

that a lot of people in this community of the precious metals investors have been expecting for over a decade so you also factor in something you mentioned before earlier Charlotte that there's a lack of interest and enthusiasm for gold despite this excellent performance and the backdrop of the drivers uh that are so firmly in place and I would just add from the contrarian perspective that's extremely bullish so gold is performing well um despite higher interest rates staying resilient and this is without

mass participation pushing it up so that would tell me it's still a very opportune time to get in and that gold is probably going to be seeing in the next several years so some of the very aggressive price targets that some you know well-respected ADV um analysts have put out there we're talking like gold three five 10,000 and possibly more that was really great thank you for going through that there's definitely a lot of points that I want to follow up on with you but where where I want to

start I think is you know we began by talking about this hesitance among investors who are looking at this move to believe that it's real and I'm curious why do you think that is so I think they've been disappointed many times you know there's been rallies and gold and there has been we'll say the stories of why gold should be you know moving up uh whether it was you know debt levels hitting you know new records um so I think two things some of it is I've heard it before I know it's

doing well but I think maybe I'll do better in the stock market um so they're kind of burnt out again I think that's a good contrarian indicator I also think there's a little bit of a bifurcation in the market unfortunately from our experience I'm we're seeing a lot of the we'll call small the midsize investor who is under a lot of economic stress who is basically has to cash out of positions they've held for a long time because the cost of living has gone up so much so

and you know some people are seeing that as well there people are throwing in the towel on the metals but I don't think that's really the case with a lot of them I think it's unfortunately they're being forced uh because of the cost of living because simultaneously as we're seeing a lot of we'll say smaller to Middle Market investors exiting you know we're seeing a lot of high netw worth ultra high netw worth family office um coming into the market aggressively and what's interesting is they're

participating more with the physical Metals now vers ETFs and other derivatives okay that is that is very an interesting distinction to go into there so moving on to Gold's drivers in 2024 you started to mention a few of the things that are making the price move at the moment I wondered if we can look at that in more detail and talk about what you think the main drivers are right now sure so gold uh looking back historically money creation you know has really been the Big Driver for gold so

you know there's been debt creation to bail us out of multiple uh crises um you know to fund a spending uh you know extravagan here in the US um that we we can't pay with Taxation and that's always been the driver for gold but that's accelerating right now there was a widespread news story about two weeks ago that there is $1 trillion doll in additional debt being floated every 100 days in the United States uh it is out of control and there is no way that you can throttle that back so anyone who

believes that you know they're going to balance the budgets and this is a temporary you know these are temporary um things just to to get us through a rough patch that's not the case you that's the story we've been hearing that story for 15 years so the money creation um and and debasing the currency is firmly in place and accelerating uh also do not discount you know what's going on geopolitically and the move to slowly dollarize you know people think some people go overboard and say well that

you know the dollar is not disappearing well dollarization doesn't mean the dollar disappears it just means it gets a smaller smaller share of its use in global trade and that will diminish the dollar which of course conversely is good for gold so there are you know so many events as I mentioned geopolitically you know macroeconomic you know things going on domestically that are strong drivers for gold firmly in place and I don't see any of that changing for the foreseeable future easily the next 3 to 5 years so I you

know I believe it's still a opportune time to go in and that a portion of portfolio should be in gold as a form of wealth preservation never mind you know what I believe is probably very good upside I did also see those headlines about the debt which is very alarming and that's certainly a theme that I've been hearing is you know the FED will have to lower interest rates because it can't sustain them with high levels of debt so if we're if we look more at 2024 I know a lot of people are focusing on

when the FED turns back around with rapes so what are what are your thoughts on that what do you think we may see sure they're they're talking kind of haish right um ultimately they will capitulate right history tells us um anytime you know a government goes down this path regardless of what they say and all their jawboning at the end of the day instead of a deflationary implosion they will print the money and it'll be an infl an infl spiral so it's going to happen um I I think investors do themselves a

disservice by listening to the fed and believing and ignoring what history says they will do even this fed's own history right every crisis that comes up regardless of what probably should have been done and just like bite the bullet and you know take your medicine like back in 2008 they're going to resort to money creation and to think that we're going to go into a bigger crisis than 2008 or you know when the stock market crashed in 2000 with the tech wreck when they flooded the market with liquidity

to think now they're going to St tough that's I I think you're you're you know you're missing what they're going to be doing so stick to your guns position for the money printing position for the lower you know the artificially lowered interest rates um and uh you know and that's more likely to be the outcome yeah it's it's interesting because of course I hear this from you and many of the people who I speak with have the same view and yet in the mainstream media we do have those soft

lamping calls still still pretty loud at this point so I wonder if you can talk more about the type of environment we might be heading into where we have inflation are we still looking at a recession or or how does it look to you we're probably going to go into somewhat of a stagflationary period um I'm looking at um I'll take a couple things like employment right you know you look at the stock market and they'll talk about how well the tech stocks are doing now I spent a number of years in big

technology and I have a lot of friends and contact still uh except for the headline stocks that are you know are are knocking the cover off the ball which are actually starting to relent right now there is a lot of layoffs there's a a lot of shrink um in the employment base and these were high-paying good jobs right Tech basically probably provided one of the biggest pools of well-compensated individuals out there especially younger people right who maybe are starting families going into the world looking to

buy a house who are doing quite well well that is a little turning around right now so when Tech which was really the last I'll say big Bastion of good paying jobs starts to shrink you know there's going to be repercussions um inflation is not under control right we know that those numbers are manipulated we know that you know there's a lot of uh manipulation of the statistics to kind of hide the real rates of inflation um as I mentioned before you know we see it through the behaviors of investors

being forced to liquidate for cost of living so you know the economy again is bifurcating there is a high you know that 5% are doing quite well um so you look at certain housing markets that are like for the affluent that are still holding up pretty well but you're seeing a lot of weakness in other areas and I know we're moving around but we talk about these headwinds the commercial real estate market you know people give it lit service it is in serious trouble there is no way that over the next

several years with what's going to unfold in big markets like New York and San Francisco and Chicago and Los Angeles you know the Carnage in the commercial real estate markets that isn't going to have such a netive impact on banks that again the FED isn't going to have to come in and bail them out which they're going to do I mean we you can be sure of it okay thank you for going into that I think that provides some good context and if we go back to bold the other thing I wanted to focus on for a moment

is you mentioned gold being in the Third Leg of this secular bull market so I thought it would be helpful I know we've talked about this in previous conversations but to look a little bit at the history and what you see coming in this third leg sure so I've had that chart in the past I wish had it now um but in 2001 gold bottomed into the sub 300s uh yeah and I know the first trade at Neptune glob mobile which we were around in 2002 was at $289 an ounce and um so gold basically moved very

aggressively from 2002 to basically 2012 and you know in the in the middle of that we had the uh the financial crisis of 2008 took a little bit of a dip during that but that was really just a blip and that was leg want right and uh just to refresh people's memory a secular buold Market as uh you know you have Cycles within it but is basically a long Market that is defined by three distinct legs and runs 20 to upwards of 30 years and I think we are in you know probably when people look back 20 years

from now it'll be it's going to be a textbook and one of the greatest secular bll markets in in generations and so that gold ran from 2002 to 2012 then went on a three-year consolidation and bottomed exactly on December 31st 2015 and when I say textbook secular bull market the textbook says that second leg is a 50% retracement of the first Legs games and it did it exactly it was an exactly 50% retracement turned around and started 2016 on the third leg now the third leg ultimately will be the

where the parabolic blowoff move is but we're not close to that yet I mean it had you know there's been years but it's been flat but we are in the third third leg and it's starting to pick up momentum now so I think again the next several years are going to be where that third leg even though it's firmly in place and it's visible on the chart is going to be obvious to all I think a lot of people you know are going to be coming in a little bit later because once they finally see this move and then

it becomes more mainstream they're going to be piling in at 253,000 and more but that's why I still think now is early and um as I said I'm not a chartist for I I like to use charts to confirm to look back and confirm our forecasts and assumptions and right now that chart for the secular B Market has confirmed what our forecast and Analysis has been calling for in the gold market going back uh 12 15 years ago okay very helpful to go into those historical n it always helps me get a good idea of the long term so we've got

a pretty good idea I think now of what's going on with gold at the moment and I wanted to take not not too long but just a moment to get your thoughts on the other precious metals so Silver Platinum padium and I know you mentioned they've got different drivers perhaps more industrial drivers but if there are any thoughts you could share on what you see coming for those medals you are soap of course we got to start with silver um and we know from or I've seen through buying patterns that a lot of of the uh

the midsize retail investors have been favoring silver over the last several years um there's a high expectation that silver is very undervalued uh in comparison to Gold you know the gold silver ratio is uh you know is brought out by people all the time to kind of validate that and the expectation is that silver will move and outperform gold on a percentage basis um I do concur with that um gold will lead silver though there's going to be a lag effect so you know adding to a silver position I believe is still uh prudent

you're just going to have to be a little bit more patient uh there's going to be a little bit more lag time and on that upside move when it eventually gets its you know gets its footing and take off it's going to be like what we saw back in 2005 6 7 you know leading up to its its top in 2011 but um with silver you always have to put in that caveat you know it's going to bounce around it's volatile you know it can frustrate you but um I do believe it it it looks very good going

forward but going to have to be a little bit more patient um but that also means you're still in a good period for accumulation b padium a little bit different of course now we're talking true Industrial Metals you know Platinum I mean Platinum is a little bit purchased by retail investors not a lot padium not really you know that's going to have to that's going to be driven um by inflation because the real assets uh there is that GE political component where most Platinum Palladium are coming

out of Russia and South Africa and we can't discount that that could cause a real sudden disruption of the market um and the only thing kind of to temper their prices are if we go into a you know economic slowdown because these are metals that are predominantly used in catalytic converters and Pollution Control you know for diesel and gas engines there's a little bit of shift um you know Palladium was being used in gas engin for years because of padium big rise in price has started shifting back

to platinum but they're basically almost uh at you know at par with each other again so but they're going to be more driven I think on the news about the economy and is the economy growing is auto production going to go up or down uh but that wild card is it can always be used also as a weapon by a producing country like Russia to make it not available you know in these wars in these trade and uh economic and financial Wars that we're seeing between East and West yes you know we put them all as a

group under precious metals but the Dynamics are so different so really good to go into those those different outlooks for the metals I think that is everything that I wanted to cover today but I want to put it back to you before I let you go and ask if there's anything else you want to mention that you think is relevant for precious metals investors right now any Trends you've been seeing or or points you would mention so I wouldn't say there's anything new what I'd say is I think um I'm sure most of

your listeners you know they're in these markets and they've been listening to some commentary from you know some very good people for years and again we talk about a little bit of probably frustration and they're probably looking at the news and they're like well if this is happening in the world why isn't gold 5,000 now and why isn't silver 100 um but you know I would go back and say look um gold is performing quite well it's take that contrarian perspective that everyone isn't piling into it so

that means it's a good time to still go in I don't see a lot of other good options for wealth preservation I mean vers gold you know silver is more speculative um you know I think the the stock market is is more overvalued than gold than gold is U and I don't think gold is overvalued but I think the stock market is um but so I would say don't lose heart um it's not like gold has performed you know gold has performed quite well it just hasn't been to the expectations of a lot of individuals so

um you know obviously it's only a portion of everyone's portfolio who is in this market so I would say stick with it it's doing its job and it will eventually get its footing and traction and probably perform more to what everyone's expectation has been very good words to end on I think thank you so much for coming on to go over what's going on in go as well as see other precious medals thank you Charlotte it was great to be with you again of course and once again and Charlotte were cloud with investin

news.com and this is Chris bloy with Neptune Global thank you for watching if you like this video make sure you subscribe to our Channel we'd also love to hear your thoughts so leave us a comment below we'll see you next time [Music]