[Music] [Music] I'm Charlotte L cloud with investingnews decom and here today with me is Rich checken president and coo at asset strategies International thank you so much for joining me great to have you here glad to be back thanks for having me show yeah really good to be speaking we're here in New Orleans and we're kind of following up on our conversation back in the summer at the rule Symposium so during that conversation you gave us a great overview of gold demand you talked about how it was strong in q1 fell off


in Q2 and now I think it's time to talk about what happened in Q3 and maybe heading into Q4 especially given that we've seen War breakout in the Middle East I would imagine that's a a catalyst so what are you seeing well it's definitely something to talk about cuz gold went up what $160 in ANS in a couple weeks after October 7th um so yeah there's been some movement um and that was on the heels of gold actually pulling back significantly we got all the way down to the low 1800s on gold uh


and silver followed and outpaced like it always does so uh both Metals suffered and both metals are benefiting although gold is benefiting more right now since war broke out uh and you know we talked about the banking crisis in the first quarter that's what triggered the buying second quarter everybody said ho home everything's okay uh there's no there's nothing to see here uh and then in the third quarter um things just kind of stayed level I mean there wasn't much of anything continued to range trade and


then on October 7th when Hass attack you know Israel um everything changed I I think we're seeing Safe Haven flows into gold uh I think we're seeing some crisis speculation into gold uh and that's all kind of shortterm stuff uh I don't think it is enough along with the continuing by the way Central Bank buying um which is about to surpass a 16-year record from last year this year uh so Central bank's still very strong but the investors are not in this market and I don't see us going above 2,000 and


sustaining prices above 2,000 without investors in the marketplace place they're actually right now selling not buying okay and that's definitely something to dig into there of course I think the the obvious question is what what turns that around what's gets these people interested in Gold again do you do you have any thoughts there yeah I mean right now sentiment is low there's no question people are looking at Alternatives but I I think the bigger issue here um let's face it the middle


class investor is what we're looking for to to buoy this market and take it much higher um I think two things have to happen one they have to feel better about their personal financial situation now Jerome Powell chairman the FED spoke yesterday I believe it was in the Q&A and he said you know uh part of the problem is we underestimated the resilience and the strength of the household financial situation uh we underestimated the amount of savings that individual households had and I think he's got a


dead wrong um he's looking at Price uh uh I guess consumption numbers going higher and basically saying that you know that's because the household balance sheet is strong I don't think that's the case I think uh consumption numbers are going higher because the middle class is buying the Necessities they've always needed to buy but after two years of inflation they cost more that's all that's happening we're not buying any more we're just spending more for the


things we've always bought in the past on top of that um I think the damage I think the FED has damaged two different things first I think they damaged bank balance sheets possibly irrevocably we will find out um but with interest rates going up so far so fast and basically putting all these unrealized but necessarily coming losses on the bank balance sheets I think he's really harmed a lot of banks not just the ones that have failed there's more signed up to do especially when we see increasing


delinquencies and we see the potential when when all the commercial uh paper starts needing to be recycled they need to you know buy new loans uh or take out new loans they're not going to be able to do it at the higher rates they're just going to walk away um and that's going to put more pressure on the banks so that's one thing I think they broken the bank balance sheets um the second thing is the the individual consumer the middle class the driver of of our economy uh basically is really in a bad


way um I believe that everything they're buying costs more they're struggling to pay for it in the past four five six years ago they would refinance right we' just take cash out of our house take cash out of the the piggy bank we live in um and we do whatever we needed to and to do that now you have to refinance and move your rate from 3% up to 8% people are going to do that so that that cond it for cash flow has gone um they've gone to their credit cards so we've seen individual credit card debt


over a trillion dollars that's not an accident um it's not a resilient economy that's people buying Necessities on credit cards at Double Digit interest rates it's not going to end well um and then the last thing uh is we're seeing investors actually selling gold here not buying it not not their whole position they're selling pieces of it to meet needs as they go along and uh that's the wrong direction for sustain prices higher um the you we joked a little bit at the beginning the


the the FED is breaking Banks they're breaking the backs of the middle class they're doing a lot of breaking when it's not dancing okay so where does this change I think when the FED starts lowering interest rates I think that's when we start to see some relief uh for the middle class we potentially start to see some relief for the banks um and I do think it's coming uh they're they got to be at the end of their rope yeah okay and you know let me tell you I think your assessment especially


of what's going on with the middle class rings much truer to me than the jome Powell assessment just among people that I know I don't think anyone is out there saying my household balance sheet looks great you know not happening yeah that that makes so much sense to me yeah and you know I hope to God well either way I don't like it either they know it's different and they're selling a different narrative uh to still confidence which I don't think is above board and I don't like it um the other


option is they just don't know um which I don't think is much better be honest with you so I I don't know what is really going on there I know they they also point to the the higher uh the higher employment numbers the big Surge and they're saying you know the employe employment Market the labor market is very resilient as well I don't buy into that either I mean the the labor market is the last thing to recede in a recession you know when you're an employer you're trying not to let go of


people you're trying to take care of your C your customers and your employees you don't want to fire anybody because you can't pay them that's like the last ditch effort I can't afford you anymore I have to let you go I think those numbers will come down they just have it yet this stuff is still working its way through the system and then the last bit of strength that we're hearing you know touted by the FED is the the GDP numbers um unfortunately the majority of that or


or the better part of that is public growth um and public spending and you know that's not how you build an economy uh government is not the engine of the economy individual private businesses and that's not generating the kind of growth that we're looking for right now yeah you know from what you're saying and also from other conversations that I've had here during the day it sounds like we are on kind of the precipice of all these factors that are building up it's been delayed but it's


coming soon so you said the relief is coming from when interest rates go back down so we have to probably then talk about when does that happen uh so and I don't know for sure um nobody does however um I just look at this and I say $33.5 trillion of debt at 5 to 55% um they can't afford it they can't afford it right now let alone wood or two more rate hikes or or whatever else so I I think I think chairman Powell knows he's out of ammunition and he's doing his very best to pause and talk


tough right so the markets don't go running away from him right if they realize he's done the game is over right everything starts shooting up again in price and he's lost inflation uh lost to inflation um so I think he's trying to talk tough but he really has no more ammunition he may raise rates one or two more times I don't know that he can but he may still do it just to back up the narrative uh but once he starts coming down um that's when I think it's really Gold's time to shine uh and I think


that's going to happen next year probably at the latter half of the year but I think it's coming and does seem like like that's cleaning the direction that we're headed in so that would be something to watch until you know when it comes to Gold we' talked about a lot of the important things on on there any factors that you believe are important right now to to keep an eye on that investors might be missing as they try to watch all these yeah I'd say just two things about gold in the gold market


right now so first off like I said we saw $160 swing in two weeks in Gold upward um because of the crisis um I am not a big fan of chasing the gold price higher okay um I I'm not worried I don't want to be a fear of missing out type person say oh my God I got to buy a whole bunch now um I also look in the other direction I don't want to stop buying because the price is moving up because long term that's where the price is going okay so my my suggestion there is don't chase don't abstain just


continue to work your plan okay uh do whatever you have in plan to build your allocation over time and and just do that okay uh don't be affected by these short-term movements in the market a longer term steadying Force so this is my second point on the right now is the central banks they continue to buy for all the reasons that we buy gold you know there's no default risk it's a longterm store of purchasing power uh it's uh got a long uh it's a great hedge against inflation it actually does well


against deflation um you name it all the reasons that we have individual investors buy gold that's why central banks are buying gold that's why they're repositioning their reserves out of dollars and into gold uh and we should follow their lead these are legitimate reasons for us to own gold to be our own central banks so okay I think that gives us a great look at your thoughts on gold kind of what's going on in our market and you know one thing I realized when we spoke the last time is I I didn't ask you


about silver at all so we should take the opportunity now I think to take a look at Silver uh I wonder about Sil we talked about gold demand so what has silver demand looked like among investors this year it's about what we would expect so in a bull market I I think we may have talked about this before I'm not sure but the relationship between gold and silver and the precious metal space gold is your leader silver is your follower but silver is a much smaller capitalized market so I look at


the gold market as being very massive and the silver market being much less so uh liken it to throwing a stone into a lake versus a puddle gold is the Lake Silver is the puddle makes a much bigger relative impact right so when gold goes up silver starts to follow um and then eventually outpaces gold to the upside it's much more volatile when they turn the corner and go down gold leans down sets the trend silver follows and outpaces and Dives deeper so gold moves up and it is silver is your lagger but


eventually it will catch wind in the sails and shoot well past gold last bull market over 10 years that was that happened to the tune of 650 appreciation in 10 years for gold and 1,000% for Silvera so it Paces significantly um that hasn't happened yet uh and we're talking offline the you good friend of mine om Aram I Alis uh he wrote an article for our newsletter this month where he talked about the 11year Cycles in precious metals and he puts in some charts and whatnot and you know if your


readers really should happy to to share it with them but basically uh Omar is saying that the the bottom was in in 20122 for gold and silver which means if you're looking to buy now's probably a pretty darn good time I would think for both um because you know if you can catch silver at the lower levels before it outpaces gold The Profit potential is amazing I still think gold is your answer for wealth insurance but if you're looking for profit I I actually skew it towards silver there and now


might be a very good time okay okay and the other thing I wanted to ask on the note of buying gold and silver in people's strategies so obviously your company offers different products right and so for people who are looking at this thinking okay where do I get the best value do you have any any tips yeah the uh jury is out on this and it's mixed right um You will talk to folks in the industry I've been in 27 years firms 42 um there folks that have been in as longer longer that'll say listen buy


Sovereign coins I love the eagle I love the maple or the Phil harmonic um they're made by a sovereign government they're liquid they're trusted Etc um and typically I want to say that the eagle and the maple are probably the two most popular Queens in the world year after year um however uh same people say if you buy a bar um it's not as liquid um 27 years of doing this I've never had a problem buying or selling in a gold bar um seems pretty liquid to me uh so what I tend to do is I look at all the


available options whether they be by private mints government mints Etc and I try to find out where the the bid ask spreads are the narrowest or where the entry point is the lowest um and that's what I buy the way to protect yourself there and make sure you're buying quality product not counterfeits and things of this nature is to buy from a reputable dealer I think you know one uh and but but also there are people that buy from Wholesale Distributors Source Distributors who buy directly from the


mints right so you're getting quality from basically the horse's mouth if you will um and you don't have to worry about fak or what have you so I like the lowest premium in a known quater bar and it really doesn't have to be well known it just has to be accepted and lbma standards and so forth yeah okay that was really interesting you know i' I've heard that about bars being less liquid so it's it's good to get that other perspective there buy into it maybe have ruin but I I haven't found that to be


the case yet well you you probably know yeah my wife will tell you otherwise you know but on this issue there you go okay um I'm going to end with what I hope is a fun question we'll see we're do we're doing some fun questions this time around so if you were looking on a fiveyear Time Horizon what and you had to hold an asset from now till then what would you choose it doesn't have to be a precious metal uh what would you choose do I have uh do I have any more input as to what my goal or objective is you I


guess you want to get the best return see that best return silver silver silver without a doubt without hesitation no Bak of you eye um if it's wealth insurance it's gold uh always for me always um but silver right now I absolutely think is paused I mentioned Omar I think he's right on the money I've talked to others they tend to agree that doesn't mean that that's right it could just be confirmation bias but I I really do think silver has been lagging um I feel the energy building up if you


will and uh when things take off I think uh within a 5year period I would think for sure you're going to see some incredible benefit out of own and some silver yeah perfect very good our silver fans will be happy to see that any any final thoughts that you would leave us with no I just um I I think what I said you know last time we talked that uh if you ever doubt that gold or silver what have you would do their job in your portfolio zoom out take a look at the long-term picture get away from the


mainstream noise that are trying to sell you something else in your portfolio and what you'll see is the price of gold and the price of silver honestly the price of anything with meaningful value or worth goes up over time as measured in mismanaged fiat currency um and I don't see us managing our fiat currency because I I know that Powell can do everything with interest rate manipulation he needs the help of Congress they have to stop overspending um they can't spend money we don't have and there seems to be no


appetite to do the right thing so as long as that's the case and it's been the case for decades um holding things of real value measured in worth less dollars is a good proposition yeah okay I think that's a great note to wrap up on thank you so much for for sitting down to go over what's going on in gold as well as silver today happy to do so thanks again for having me yeah we'll do it again soon great to have you and and once again I'm Charlotte McLoud with investing news.com this is Rich checken


with asset strategies International thank you for watching if you like this video make sure you subscribe to our Channel we'd also love to hear your thoughts so leave us a comment below we'll see you next time [Music]