[Music] I'm Charlotte McLoud with investingnews docomo Solway Chief Market strategist at verified investing.com thank you so much for joining me great to have you here oh great to be back Charlotte thanks for having me of course and it's only been it's been a few months since we last spoke we checked in at the end of December but so much has happened so we really have a lot to go over today and where I thought we would start as usual is with gold so when we had that conversation all the way back in


December I asked you if the gold price move was real and you said yes and of course we've seen gold continue to move upwards since then but I'm still seeing really a lot of hesitation among investors to believe in it so I want to check in with you again to get your take on gold's price move yeah so and that's that's a great point I I do still think that there's a lot of investors that just aren't used to viewing gold as a kind of as as something that you can make a lot of money being long right I


mean it's been something that's since 2020 until the recent breakout it's just gone sideways chopped while the stock market was returning massive amounts right but now we are starting to see that rip higher so let's take a look at the gold chart here and see what we have so so the first thing to keep in mind is that the signals on the chart were absolutely there and what do I mean by that well we had the 2020 High here and if we draw a trend line across look at how it kept on hammering on that


resistance line and ultimately that becomes like a doorway right you keep on pounding the door until it finally breaks through and then you get this explosive move to the upside and that's what we've gotten here now having said that do I think gold eventually goes higher yes I think 2500 this year is a lock um I even think 3,000 over the next 12 to 18 months is definitely a possibility but I do want to just mention here and I'm a shorter term investor and Trader so I do want to just


mention that I do anticipate a pullback before it goes higher now and I want to show you guys where I get that from so what I'm going to do is I'm going to flip over to the monthly chart and I use technical trend lines it's kind of my go-to move so if we take the high of 1980 right here which was an explosive High during a high inflation period and we take that and connect it to our high from 2011 it takes us exactly to the current highs on Gold All right so again while I still think gold has more upside you


have to respect a trend line that goes back 40 plus years that we probably are due for some sort of pullback I even think we could get a pullback to about 2075 which was that breakout level but basically I'm just in the position Charlotte where pullbacks are buying opportunities I I don't see a way that the FED can get out of lowering rates when the economy gets messy where they they're not going to print money where the government I mean how does the government pay down a debt when the


interest alone is north of a trillion dollars that's just the interest right so all of these signals point to a Fed that it's going to have to push interest rates down at some point and it likely means that gold does go a lot lot higher yeah that was exactly where I wanted to go I think gold price drivers it's always great to take a look from a tech standpoint but of course good to look at those other external things so with the FED it looks like this year we're definitely looking at rates coming


back down I think everyone's agreed that's going to happen in 2024 but it seems like the timeline for that is getting pushed out so curious to know when you think the bed might start to cut and what the trajectory might be this year yeah so and this is such a great thing because there's so much kind of questioning about when we will get that kind of big First Cut Is it going to be in June I mean I still remember at this time last year people were already anticipating three rate Cuts last year


and then before you know it was no rate Cuts but six this year now it's down to three and it's almost down to two at this point so it's really been a change and that's all because in my opinion the labor market has remained strong but also we've seen inflation beginning to uptick again in fact really some incredible charts here I want to just show you guys some various charts um that we have on some of these Commodities so let me show my screen again and we can delve into this so we


looked at gold and Gold's had a huge move but we know that silver Silver's also had a major breakout and silver is partially an industrial metal so we know that that's also very telling about kind of the prices that are going to be passed to investors down the line we look at Copper right Copper's had a major move as well where you've now surge to the upside and we're trading at levels we have not seen since 2023 and we're actually at a pivotal Point here where if we break this on copper we


could be headed back to $5 on copper which would be remarkable and then of course how could we not mention chocolate right the the the the chocolate chart explosive move to the upside here just since the beginning of the year up over a 100% And one of the favorites for most people is coffee look at Co coffee's recent move here to the upside so so to be honest you know we look at these signals and if Commodities are going up it's eventually going to get passed to the consumer and it's hard


for me to imagine how we are going to get inflation back to the the supposed Federal Reserve goal of 2% right and again you know I think they're going to move the goalpost they're going to say oh well you know 3% during a bad recession is okay and they'll they'll start cutting and printing at that point which ultimately we just are going to have to pay for later on with higher amounts of debt in the system and higher inflation it's unfortunately to summarize it's kind of like a snowball


rolling down the hill where it just gets bigger and bigger bger and bigger and there's no end until that snowball smashes into a a a brick wall if you will and just collapses yeah what what a visual to give us there no no that's okay that's okay so talking a little bit more about the fence so as you said you know these this rate cut has been pushed further and further out I'm wondering you know once it eventually happens what does it look like coming back down because I think I I used to hear from people you


know it will come down steadily in the same way that it went up now I'm starting to hear a little bit of a different take of it will come down you know very quickly like in like an elevator I guess so what are your thoughts there yeah so so it does seem more and more like it's going to be kind of when the stock market finally has a big flush when the jobs Market you know it doesn't seem as much that people are saying oh the jobs Market is just going to slowly weaken it's more that you're


thinking at this point that it's going to hit a wall and then you're going to see it employment start to spike dramatically and the non-farm payrolls num is going to go dramatically to the downside so I think I think that's kind of the vibe most people are getting and I actually think that that's fairly true I think the signals for slowdowns are you know are there in the charts in fact I I want to show you a couple key articles that I've written recently that really speak to the trouble in the


system that a lot of the mainstream media is not pointing out so this was an article I wrote just earlier today and it and the headline speaks for itself but basically credit card delinquencies are surging and we're at 10% and to put that in perspective you haven't seen 10% since really going back to the covid pandemic major catastrophe right when everyone was panicking and then before that you have to go all the way back to 2008 2009 so what this tells me is the consumer is feeling stretched if they're


delinquent on their credit cards they're unable to pay their credit cards they've kind of run out of out of room here a couple other articles that I think are worth taking note of here let me just scroll down and I apologize for this but another headline that I came across commercial bankruptcies have jumped 43% just in the last year that's massive that's telling you that businesses are not doing as well by far and then just one more here Insider selling spikes to the highest level since 2021 and again


we know 2021 that was when we saw the stock market Peak last time and insiders again were dumping like crazy and they are dumping like crazy here in fact there's a great chart here on on this I want to show you look at all that red and look at how tiny the little bits of green are those are Insider buys the green and obviously the the Reds our cells so so again you know for me I look at this and I say you know the mainstream media is pointing out how great things are and how strong the econom is M being maintained and then I


look at things and I say wait a minute that might not be the case right maybe we're actually seeing some other factors here that are actually struggling or we're seeing struggling within the economy so so I would just you know caution people to be aware of this um you know just a couple and and bear with me because I think this is so important for investors to see but if we go down to some of these charts here number one the Federal Reserve or I should say the government is one of the key hirers so


last Friday we saw the the jobs report talking about 300,000 jobs were created right well look at look at the amount of hiring that the government's doing basically the government is hiring a majority of these people and then also other SC very tactic uh signals are that the full-time work has actually been declining the last four the last 3 to four months while part-time is making up the difference so people are having trouble finding full-time work and that again is an issue so so again not to


Ramble On and I apologize for that but there are so many signals within the underlying economy that things are not so good but the headline numbers are still relatively good and I think people have to pay attention to what the underbelly is saying yeah no problem at all I love all the concrete examples and and sharing them there so I think definitely then another point to follow up on is recession in 2024 and I think that again the last time we spoke you were calling for a recession in 2024 the question was


kind of the size and the depth of that so do you have any any insight now on how it could look yeah so I am in the camp that by the end of this year we do still see that recession hit now again you'll see initially so so the way recessions work is that it's only kind of once we're in the recession a little ways in that people start to say oh look at the data because the data is always backward looking but I think if you asked a lot of people out there they would say yeah you know things are


already tough and some of these data points we talked about are already telling us that a lot of people are feeling like it's a recession so so I think that's important another thing to just keep in mind is I just want to show the S&P chart here because the S&P has actually broken down from a major consolidation wedge pattern so this is the move since October it was about I think was about 27% on the S&P 500 but look at how it got narrow and narrower connecting the lows and the highs and


recently we've just broken down so one of the reasons I think the stock market and the economy has held up as well as it has is because the stock market has been going higher at a break neet Pace if you start to see the stock market coming down all those people that saw their 401ks up 20% 30% they're going to say uhoh you know I can't spend as much money anymore and I do think that then perpetuates an even faster move into recession and I think by the way I think that's one of the reasons why the


economy has stayed strong and the fed's been able to kind of hold back on cutting and why the FED may have to cut a lot faster if the stock market takes let's say a 10% tumble or so right I definitely I was going to ask you you know why have we been able to hold on for so long and that that kind of explains that so I want to go back to Gold I think he mentioned earlier in this conversation 2500 is looking pretty likely in 2024 and then longer term perhaps 3,000 so I wonder if we can look


a little bit more in depth at that and show people where it could be going of course after that that pullback that you mentioned yeah absolutely so so let's jump back into that gold chart and kind of take another look at some of the longer term projections that are based on the chart so what I'm going to do is I'm going to eras these lines here and we're going to start from scratch but we're going to keep it on the monthly well you know what let's go back to the weekly chart so the first thing is


there's this pattern formation that's called an inverse Head and Shoulder and the inverse Head and Shoulders is a very bullish pattern and essentially what you get is this upside down person it's kind of that's where it comes from is a head and shoulders of a person so you can see it says on the screen where the head is and here's your shoulder now the kicker is this right so here's your shoulder head shoulder what technical analysis allows us to do is to figure out where


the target would be for this head and shoulders to complete and when completion occurs it it usually is upwards here so what we do very simply just so simple take the low point of the head and shoot a line straight up to that What's called the neckline it's this line that goes right across here all right that's 450 points so what you do then is you say okay well on the breakout we should mimic that and go up 450 points on gold to our first Target and that brings us to that $2500 playout so that would be a


completion of The Head and Shoulders inverse Head and Shoulders pattern at just over 2500 my guess is that happens this year the reason why I say 3,000 is that because and this is more of a fundamental side of things is that it's very hard for me to Envision how the FED doesn't print more money how the FED doesn't you know the government doesn't take on more debt without massive austerity measures and if you're going to see that printing continuing for for let's say the next five years gold has


to increase more money in the system the dollar ultimately and all currencies will weaken against gold and gold should go even higher over that period okay really good to get a look at that and just briefly I wondered if we could also take a look at gold stocks because you know people typically would expect them to outperform the gold price which I don't think we're quite seeing yet so what are what are you seeing when you look at the good stocks charts yeah so let's look at the GDX in fact so the


GDX gives us the gold miners ETF and and so you can see right here is and this is shorter term so we're going to start shorter term and then we'll look at the longer term so shorter term you have two major trend lines that intersect a bunch of levels and if you look at today's price action we finally pierced that first line almost getting to the second line and look at how it's getting rejected and this is called resistance right these are resistance lines essentially that door door that's locked


and we can't get through it in price now again my guess is you'll see a pullback in price on the GDX maybe down to about 34 uh $32 here so a $2 pullback that'll bring us into major technical support here and then I actually think we do start to make that next move up and this is where we would then go to the bigger time frame and say okay what is the bigger pattern formation and what's remarkable here is we actually have an inverse Head and Shoulders on this it just hasn't broken yet right so if we


look at this it's that same pattern that gold has it just again like you said it's actually technically it has broken check that it has broken out and and we can do that same measurement to the upside so we take the lowest point we shoot that line right up it's a $17 move move and we do the same thing here we shoot up $17 on the GDX and we basically get a target of $50 so I mean percentage wise that's an amazing move to the upside if you're long on the GDX so short term I'm


looking for a pullback but longer term as long as gold price outpaces inflation the gold miners should flourish in that environment be meaning that they're selling gold for more than more and more than the cost that they're doing to run their business okay very interesting to see that pattern retrea in there but it does make sense and so we're looking at GDX which is the the B gold liners and I remember in the past you've been more interested in those larger solid names in the gold space I wonder you know


people like the smaller gold companies because of course they can rise that much higher when when they start to move would you ever consider looking at at those ones yeah so so I definitely would um you know I tend to at this stage of my career try to try to hit singles and doubles versus home r runs um so I kind of stay away from the smaller ones but but my my thought is that if I ever do play the smaller miners I go with something like the gdxj which spreads my risk amongst many gold miners small


minor you know the tiny Miners and this way if one you know I mean really what it comes down to is if if some of these smaller miners don't hit a big you know supply of gold they can go out of business because they're spending money to search for gold and so so for me again I don't like to take that risk of maybe I lose 100% or most of my money so the gdxj would be an interesting alternative to get it exposure to the smaller miners but not take individual risk okay okay that makes a lot of sense


of course that is yeah a less risky way to do it so love to talk about gold but we have to mention silver as well and again looking back to that conversation we had in December you mentioned to us if silver could make it past 2550 I think that was when it would have really good upside so of course we've done that and I was looking today at the chart I told you before we turned the camera on I saw it above 28 and I had just a small heart attack there so silver what what is silver's potential looking like now


in 2024 given those updated numbers yeah so so again what would I've been looking at was this wedge pattern and same thing kind of an inverse head and shoulders right here right and and just want to show everyone here's that 2550 level that we talked about right here and once you got above it look at the explosive move to 28 like you mentioned right so huge move to the upside on Silver um again is it a little bit long in the tooth in the short term yeah you might get a small pullback but


again I continue to think that we're going to go up here and test $30 which is that key resistance from 2020 once we get to 30 we have to reevaluate again but but I do think again whether we get a small pullback or not you're destined to go to $30 and down the line if gold goes to 3,000 you're going to see silver go higher than $30 as well okay okay so we will we'll look at Silver again once we make it to 30 and and we'll see how it's going okay sounds good to me we also of course we have to


check in on bitcoin so Bitcoin is a market as you know I'm a little bit less familiar with what's going on there but of course I've seen the headlines new all-time high in 2024 so for you were you were you expecting this this year has the price action surprised you yeah so there's no doubt price action on on bitcoin has has surprised me a little bit um you know I think I underestimated how bullish the markets would be in La late last year as well as this year as well and I think to be honest Bitcoin


and and the stock market are very intertwined as a risk asset eventually I do view Bitcoin as a long-term digital gold but right now it goes up when the markets go up it goes down when the stock market goes down and so really the the combination of the stock market doing well really catapulted it we also had the ETF the spot ETF approval we have the having coming up all of these are adding to that bull narrative so really what we have here on the chart is a trend line that that I'm watching as


long as you see this bottom trend line how we keep on coming back to it then bouncing then hitting again and bouncing as long as Bitcoin stays Above This level which is currently around 66,000 then to be honest you could see further upside and I think again a lot of that will be tied with does the stock market see further upside as well um however if 66,000 breaks to the downside meaning this trend line breaks to the downside then I would be very concerned that we would go back to about the 50ish th000


level somewhere in that vicinity but but it's been an amazing move to the upside it's holding relatively resilient although granted the S&P is close to its all-time highs as well um the big question for me is what happens if we do see a bigger stock market correction how does Bitcoin hold up in that in that environment very interesting so so for you at what level would you be a buyer of Bitcoin so so basically I'm I do expect at some point the stock market to pull back enough that that Bitcoin does


crack this level it could make new alltime highs prior but eventually I do think this level gets broken and then for me it's looking back at the chart and the chart tells us there's a couple major levels right so this would be a very interesting level at 52,000 we can see the sideways consolidation before the breakout and then the the high of the spot ETF approval was 49 and that would be a secondary zone so anywhere between 52 and 49 that would be a very interesting level for a pullback where


you would get a buying opportunity now I do want to just caveat this with if the stock market gets into a massive bare Market let's say the stock market drops 30 40 50% like we've seen in 2008 209 then bitcoin's going a lot lower than 50 right I mean it's it's only if you know the stock market corrects 5 10% then yeah 50ish give or take is probably realistic if we see again those bigger moves in the stock market then I do think Panic fills Bitcoin and you probably see it down to 30 or even


sub30 okay and I don't I don't think I've ever asked you this before but with the new I don't think we've spoken since the spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved I don't think I've ever asked you your preferred way to play in the Bitcoin market so would you go for Bitcoin itself would you use one of these other vehicles how how would you do that yeah so so I think that's really each indivis individual investor has to decide I mean you know there's risks and and positives


and negatives so number one if you buy an ETF that's based on spot you know technically the ETF is holding your Bitcoin for you which if you're okay with that is fine it lets you be in and be out and stay in a FDIC insured portfolio at a regular brokerage you know if you buy it on the spot exchanges then you own that and you you can take custody of that but at the same time you don't get FDIC Insurance on those exchanges so so for me you know in this point in my career I'm most likely


playing it via the ETFs but I do understand if like if I were to have a huddle position that I was going to hold for a long time I would probably buy it off of the the exchanges and kind of take it off the exchanges okay so so like anything it's each individual has to make their own decision okay one final Bitcoin question because we do have the having approaching any special considerations that people should be aware of as we head toward award that so the only thing I would point out about the having you


know on social media gets made out to be something massive but we are now down to only about two two million Bitcoins left to mine out of 21 million so yes those Bitcoin are going to be harder to mine doubly hard to mine but it's only 2 million left now and so there's still a 19 million Supply that's out there amongst regular folks that can be bought or sold at any one time and so I think it's important to kind of recognize that the havs become less important over time you know when there is 20 million


Bitcoin or or 15 million and a having occurred that made that was a huge reduction in the supply coming out now it's not so much because there's been so much mine so so I think that again whether we see the selloff before the having or after I do think there is a selloff coming and probably that retrace to 50,000 is like okay I think I think we've gone through many of the areas that I wanted to cover but I'm wondering just putting it back to you are there any other areas of of bullishness that you have in 2024


that we haven't discussed yeah so so I think for me you know it's it's looking at some charts that you know on a shorter term basis are interesting um you know even like Tesla right now everyone's been hating on it Boeing's been hating on it and listen if the markets Dro 20% those are all going to go down as well but at least in the shorter term I always gravitate towards positions that are very people have a very negative view shortterm on and I look for bounces on those but aside from that to be honest


you know for me it's it's buying gold on pullbacks at this point buying silver buying Palladium Platinum like you know the major Metals um just on that fundamental thought process that I do believe the FED unfortunately for many of us will have to go back and all central banks they're going to all have to go back to Printing and low interest rates to stimulate the economy at some point in the future okay I think that is a good place to wrap up unless you had any final advice that you would leave investors


with or if you want to let people know where they could find you yeah sure and and the first thing is always do your own research be aware you know of all the stuff out there there's lots of good information and do your own due diligence and then and then definitely check out the new verified investing.com website it is filled like literally I built that homepage the way I want it for an investor and Trader meaning that we put everything on that homepage like like the earnings reports coming out the


the economic news various chart setups fear and greed like everything that you could ever want on one site instead of having to go to 10 sites is there and I do encourage people just to come check it out it's free the homepage is free and there's lots of great information so again that's verified investing.com okay perfect well thank you so much for coming on to talk about the markets and precious metals today always really good to have you thank you so much Charlotte so nice to see you of course and once


again I'm Charlotte McLoud with investing news.com and this is Gareth Solway with verifi investing.com thank you for watching if you like this video make sure you subscribe to our Channel we'd also love to hear your thoughts so leave us a comment below we'll see you next time [Music]