[Music] I'm Charlotte McLoud with investing news.com and city with me is Jordan Roy bur he is a chartered Market technician and master of financial technical analysis he's also editor and publisher of the daily gold thank you so much for being here great to have you oh thank you so much for having me Charlotte it's my pleasure really good to be speaking with you especially because we've had some very exciting and interesting price moves for gold recently including a move briefly past


2400 so of course it's retreating since then but I thought where we can start is what caused for you that big move and and now the pullback well I I think the cause um I I don't know if there's like a specific cause I mean the the kind of I mean the boring term would be technical analysts they tell you market supply and demand and so we had in the last three and a half years we had this consolidation where you know the the Bulls were were starting to slowly gain control but they couldn't push the


market to a breakout yet you have all this buying from uh overseas uh central banks Asian demand all of that and you know it it could be I mean very recently it could could be the budget in the US and specifically the interest on the debt where it's getting to it's it's kind of reaching a threshold you could say where it's starting to go vertical and basically the problem with that is at some point in the next couple years we may have to do yield curve control where we print money to to hold interest


rates down and and you know of course Japan has been doing that in the I think since 2016 actually and we did that in the in World War II from 1942 to 1951 there was huge inflation during that period of course uh we were on the gold standard so gold wasn't freely traded so I I think you have that specific reason and then secondly I'd also say the technical setup you had this 13-year super bullish cup and handle pattern and so the the market was really set up where if you could just get enough


buying to push it above 2100 you know that could carry beyond that pretty quickly and that's what we've seen so um you know I I've I one to mince words and you know we talked about it beforehand this is an industry where a lot of people get hyperbolic about you know gold targets which seem pie in the sky but this is actually one of those times because gold has broken out of a 13-year super bullish comp handle pattern and you just don't see that many things like this in in just numerous markets as a


whole you don't see these many breakouts and when they do happen they're hugely significant not only just to immediately but also if you're looking at the next 3 5 7 10 years so this is one of those points where the market precious metal specifically they're in a super bullish position right now and and we could see some huge moves over the next couple years okay very very interesting and reassuring to hear you say that because it does feel like we're in Uncharted Territory here so I want to talk a


little bit about a post that you had made recently on your website so you had mentioned we saw this pull or sorry we saw gold go past 2400 it's now pulled back and in this post you're explaining that when we see these pullbacks after a major race move like that they actually don't tend to last very long so I wondered if you could go into that and kind of set the stage there yeah you know I was looking at various or the history of gold and when it has made a breakout uh to a new all-time high and


and so was studying the price action around those breakouts after those breakouts I mean there were some breakouts like 2005 was a really really significant one it wasn't at an all-time high but that was really significant because it broke out of like a kind of a sideways to slight slightly down uh trend line since the early 80s so I threw that one in as well but at least initially in these moves what you tend to see is uh gold when it when it's running when it pulls back it it only comes back to the 50-day moving average


in not every case but in most cases and so it's very I mean it's not a prediction but it's very possible that moving forward for the rest of this year the pullbacks will be short and we won't see gold go below the 50-day moving average now if if gold gets up to you know let's say 26 2700 later in the year 2800 then it could be at a point where it's moved quite a lot and at that point it might be ripe for a bigger pullback like that's when you could possibly see you gold pull back I don't $2 200 $250


maybe $300 something like that but but here and now we're way too early into the move and gold has not moved enough you mean even though I think it was in the 1800 there was a low there in last October so I mean it has had a decent move since then but historically it doesn't have a bigger correction until it gets you know really until it makes a much bigger move in that kind of a time frame so it's just something people need to understand it's kind of true for all markets like when a


market makes a major breakout when it's in breakout mode as I like to say when it's trending super bullish and you're still kind of early in that move you know you're not like a year or two years or nine months when you're in that fa you know everybody's worried because oh the Market's so hot and I'm waiting for a pullback because it's so hot it has to pull back but that's how the Cy psychology or not the psychology that's how the structure of the market like the


regime as people like to say we've seen a regime change that changes right away but then the psychology of most people does not change quick enough I mean psychology and sentiment Falls price action it's only until something has moved a lot more significantly than gold has at this point that then the the psychology of Market participants tends to catch up so we're in a new know we obvious we're in a new bull market we're in a new secular bull market we've had this hugely significant breakout from a


13-year pattern and there's still you know a lot of people were like yeah Gold's broken out but you know you got to be careful because it you know it could pull back or it doesn't uh you know the stock market's doing fine good Gold's going to pull back it's going to have this big correction at some point but historically uh when you look at how markets perform after major breakouts initially you don't get big pullbacks like there short and Swift so that's we have to understand that going forward


over the next 3 to six months I'd say okay I I'm glad you brought up sentiment because I had I had a note to ask you for your take on that because I'm feeling the same thing and maybe it's just in myself where I look at this and disbelief and it makes me feel nervous so when do you think we might see that sentiment shift for real and maybe pick up some some more mainstream interest in Gold yeah it's a really good question couple answers one I'd say higher prices that always helps I mean if if we see


gold continue to move and we're into the summer and the fall and we have you know 27 2800 that's certainly going to help but also if we look at gold against the stock market um the stock market I mean this is been this is like a big picture a very big picture view but it surprised me a little bit I thought we would need to see more weakness in the stock market for gold to break out and of course gold was able to break break out with the stock market still around all-time highs and you know that basically hasn't you


have to go back to the 1960s and if you use gold stocks as a proxy that's really the the the best comparison to where we are you know 1965 66 I'd say but uh the larger point the more important point is when you see more weakness in the stock market that's when you're going to see more you know more retail and more generalist you know more normies as some people like to say when that happens you're going to see more of those types buying into the gold ETFs and then General sentiment uh that that's going


to uh be be much more positive for gold and of course that's probably going to coincide with you know 27 2800 gold so if you if you get that move and gold just up a couple hundred more bucks and at the same time you know the stock market's weak maybe it's you know corrected 15% or something like that that's going to be really powerful that that will will place or not place you know that is going to be a catalyst for more you know conventional money conventional investors putting that


money into gold right and I know we're focused on the bo but just because to bring up the stock market I think I should ask you for your general Outlook there you know are we are we heading toward this long awaited recession that I I keep hearing about something else what are what are your thoughts there Broadley yeah I mean it it's just a guess but I would think maybe at some point in the next 12 to 18 months um that we could see a recession um certainly if you look at I mean short-term inflation indicators are


coming down but long-term inflation indicators are actually turning up so it's it's a bit unusual but then when you look at what's happening in the markets gold obviously I mean copper is doing really well it's starting to attack some technical resistance uh your oil has turned up so you know you could kind of get a B of stagflation in the next 12 or 18 months uh possibly before we get a recession so at some point we'll get a recession you know probably in the next year or two would be my


guess maybe sooner um so I I think it's definitely coming and and that will hurt the stock market but but who knows maybe you know maybe that's not you know maybe that's nine or 12 or still 15 months away I don't know but that's kind of what my general sense is that it's coming but not imminent okay okay thank you for going into that and if we go back to gold gold in 2024 I know you've mentioned a number of numbers but maybe just help me put it into perspective so this year what are


you seeing in terms of from a technical perspective upside and downside for gold well I'll do the downside first gold has had six major breakouts in its history six or seven uh mean if you count when we went off the gold Stander that could also be counted as a breakout but I think in two of these cases you did have a full retests of the breakout this happens in markets sometimes where you get the really strong breakout but then you quickly come back and retest uh what was previous resistance


so that that would be 2100 if gold does a retest you know maybe it comes back to you 2150 2120 something like that so so to me that's really the downside technical case I don't think that's going to happen but it has happened before it did happen in 1976 when the market um it it had a really strong you know it had that 45% decline I think in 75 to 76 and so it had a long way to climb to get back to resistance so it it it broke above 200 uh that move was very quick to 200 and then to I think 240 then it had


a quick a really quick 20% decline where it just it came right back to the breakout point and then of course it went parabolic after that so that that's one example uh in Gold's history that to me would be the downside case again I I I don't think that's going to happen I I could be wrong but it's certainly in the realm of possibility the bullish case you know the interesting thing is we we talked about gold making this 13-year super bullish cup and handle so the handle was 3 and a half years if you


look at the handle there actually two many cupet handles potentially in uh the handle itself so this is like real I'm nerding out here because I'm a technical analyst and this is like you know this is like chart porn for me where you have this hu you have this 13-year pattern and then inside of the pattern there's too many cup and handles but what we need to know is the measured upside Target for those two mini cupin handles are uh I think one of them is 2350 the other is 2500 so you have those and then you have


the uh measured upside Target of the cup and handle depending on how you measure it I mean it's you know some people are saying 2900 2850 I mean for me I I think it's around 3,000 so that to me would be you know maybe uh we have a chance to get to 3,000 by the end of the year another thing is if you if you look at these patterns and you take what I call the log Target which is the percentage depth of the handle because the measured upside Target you're just taking the depth of the handle which is around a


th000 bucks then you're projecting it on top of the resistance so that's how you get 2900 or 3,000 but if you take the percentage that depending on how you measure it you can get anywhere from 3700 to I think like nearly 4,100 and historical cup and handle patterns which and these are not perfect patterns but the historical ones I looked at there's not that many the market went from the measured upside to the log Target in 6 to 12 months so if we get to 3,000 or you know when we get to


3,000 you know based on that history you could say okay well maybe we're in a 6 to 12 month uh scenario where that you know gold could hit 4,000 after that so yes this stuff does sound extreme but there are there's real science to technical analysis that goes into these upside targets so to to button up a long answer you have 2500 and then you have 3,000 for me is the next Target after that I mean you there is a Fibonacci Target I want to say 2750 so it's possible we could stop there and have more of a


correction before we go to 3,000 but bigger picture I'm looking at 3,000 and then 4,000 after that okay okay for me it really helps to get the upside and the downside I know that some people just want to hear a concrete answer but I do like to look at it from all the different sides so thank you for that and I think you started going toward my next question which was when we last spoke about a year ago you had outlined a scenario where we get to $4,000 Gold by by 2025 and I was going to ask if that is still in the cards and


it sounds like yes there is still a way to to get there in that time frame yeah it's it's still on the cards although I'd add some time to it because that was based on um you know gold breaking out last year and I I think if I recall our interview correct you know you said well what could go wrong you know what what could you know derail this forecast and I think I mentioned you know it could be a timing thing where it just it takes a lot longer than I think that you know other people thinking so I


it was I think we did the interview in April so we're looking at you know maybe 9 10 10 11 months since we had this breakout move so that you know pushes out that uh you know forecast I would say still on the table but um yeah I think it's possible that we could hit 4,000 by the end of 2025 I was looking at uh I'm going to publish a video later today but I was looking at uh um another person sentiment trader.com they were putting out um or they put out a chart based on you know gold achieving really


strong momentum like they were marking all the points where it spent more than half the month making a a new all-time high and so I look I looked at that and then I I and then I said okay well where where are the points that are after major breakouts because we just had a major breakout so there were two there was one after the breakout in' 76 and then after the breakout I think you know fall of 2009 and the fall of 2009 is obviously the weaker of those two moves um but but even on that move like


if you if we duplicated that move after that breakout gold could hit 3700 in December of next year so there's there's more than one thing that are pointing to that I mean it's obvious it's a timing question but I do think that um I do think that goal I mean the setting is really ripe for these targets to be hit in the next few years okay yeah it's really interesting because we've been talking about how people feel like it's moving too fast but in a way we've been talking about


this for such a long time so is it fast or is it so hard to say um okay so going back to to investors I was going to ask you you know what should investors do in this scenario of course every person is different and they should figure out their own strategy but you know if you if you have your good should you sit tight right now should you consider buying on pullbacks you know what what's your take on yeah I would say I mean we're clearly in a new buold market now it's it's Buy and Hold so you don't want


to be a seller uh well I mean we're talking about physical met Metals you're going to buy and hold I mean when we're talking about the stocks that's completely different uh sometimes in the stocks you get those really sharp moves you know I like to call them rhino horns when you're looking at the chart and you could see it it looks like a rhino horn because the move is so sharp um you know if you're in the stocks and you get that kind of move certainly takes a money off the table but everyone needs to have a


plan because precious bals are they're different from the stock market where you you're in a secular bull market the stock market and it will just generally slowly move higher over time precious metals are a lot different you get really sharp moves and then you get a consolidation or correction for a year or two then you get another sharp move so you you need to really have a plan to figure out okay as the market moves higher am I going to buy more when am I going to take some profits and so that


that's the hard part the easier part is knowing we're in a bull market and that you know gold and silver have potential to move dramatically higher and it can get scary when they start to move vertical so that that's the easier part the harder part is each person has to figure out their own plan when am I going to take some profits when am I going to buy more and like you said everyone's different so the answer for everyone is different yeah definitely definitely a very individual consideration but okay


so you started to talk about the gold stocks and how they're very different from the physical models of course so certainly we should take a look at what's going on with the gold stocks I looked at GDX and gdxj before we started this interview they are up year to date and I know they're not representative of the whole gold sector that's what I was looking at there so I know they've moved but investors would like to see them move more so I'm wondering what you're seeing there and and will we we start to


see more moves in the gold stocks as as people I think are expecting in this environment yes I I think we will see more moves and and some significant moves if we step back for a second and think about gold stocks and how they perform they're really options on the price of gold now in 2006 you had the introduction of gold ETFs now before that point you couldn't most you know fund managers in vors gold was not financialized so before 2006 if you wanted exposure to Precious Metals you really had to buy the stocks like that


was all you could buy and so the introduction of the gold ETFs that has completely changed the setup between gold and the gold stocks so now gold is the driver because generalists money they buy gold first then you know later on if you twist their arm maybe they'll buy silver or they'll buy the cold stock ETFs but so because of that the gold stocks are they're an option on gold so they're they're nothing more think of them it goes for silver stocks as well they are options on Metals prices so


options do the best when you have the most significant moves in metals prices in a shorter period of time so there's a couple there's a couple times when the stocks will really outperform you know as a group the first is after you get a major breakout in gold and silver so after a major breakout historically that's when they perform the best that's when they really outperform the medals now also if you're coming off of a crash bottom like say 2008 or covid in 2020 so coming off of a crash bottom and you get


these really sharp rebounds and medals those are the other times when the stocks will really outperform so here and now we're coming off of a gold breakout this is the real sweet spot for the stocks to outperform now they're not going to outperform you know permanently moving forward they and they tend to really outperform at the beginning of the moves so if we're going to see like let's say gold will move to 3,000 before it has like let's say a three or $400 pullback at 3,000 as gold is approaching


3,000 that's when the miners will start to lose leverage like an option so the closer gold gets to that resistance point then we'll start to see miners will not perform uh as well and so um I mean that that's like it it just one scenario in a short-term sense in that the miners they they leverage the moves best at the beginning of the moves but once you kind of slowly get you're getting closer to the end of the move like that's when The Leverage from the miners will really Trail off that's


something I like in a very shortterm sense if we look at gold and silver right now I mean I I think we could see a short-term pullback and um if you look at the stocks in the last two or three days they have been starting to weaken whereas the metals are still strong like you have you know there's a bit of a geopolitical bid and that sort of thing but the the so in a very shortterm sense we're seeing that you know the metals are starting to cool off so that could you know that could be a signal of like


a a short-term correction here but that's you know that that's that's the you know this the cliffnotes version to my long answer is the stocks they trade like options so they leverage the moves and the metals but when you're come when you're breaking out you're in a real sweet spot so you silver has resistance at 26 also some resistance at 28 so if we see silver break 28 that's a real sweet spot for the silver stocks to really outperform so I think like the next leg in silver where you get a move


from like say 28 to 34 like you could see the silver stocks really strongly outperformed during that move because it's it'll be coming after a major breakout okay okay okay I'm going to come back to Silver in just a moment but before we go there I wondered if there's more you can say about how the introduction of gold ETFs changed the landscape in terms of you know people going into gold stocks because I I only started this job in 2012 so for me gold ETFs they been there all along and


that's that's less familiar for me yeah I mean it's really interesting because if you look at gold stocks and you look at I mean I I love to look at you know 100 year or 50 year 7 year charts and if you look at you know gold stocks relative to the stock market or you look at some other valuation I mean it's hard to get valuation charts going back that far but gold stocks they traded at much higher valuations like in the 80s and the 90s even though gold was not in a secular bull market so they


they traded at much higher valuations and so um it just th this this introduction of the gold ETFs and financializing gold as some people like to say that really hurt the gold stocks I mean there because since then their valuations have come down significantly so it it it's really hurt the entire mining sector because beforehand it'd be such a pain for fund managers and um retail investors again if they wanted exposure to Gold they they really couldn't buy gold pre 2005 2006 you know so they just said okay


well buy gold stocks and I'll look at the biggest Miners and so the introduction of the ETFs you know they don't even care about the stocks anymore they can just buy gold and so that hurt the stocks you know that it it's it's caused their valuations to really plummet in the last 15 years and but what nobody points out is we've been in a secular bare market for precious metals I know gold has gone sideways but if you look at the Gold stocks you look at Silver they're way below the 2011


highs you know gold had not really broken out until earlier this year a couple months ago so we were in a secular bare market for precious metals until the last few months that also hurt the gold stocks a lot now I I don't think now that we're in a new secular bow I I you know I don't think we're going to see valuations on the gold stocks get back to where they were in 1980 or even the 80s and the 90s but you know we're in a new secular B market so maybe at some point in the next 5 seven


or 10 years maybe they get close to point but irregardless the introduction of the gold ETFs as a way of financializing gold that really hurt the mining sector okay thank you thank you for going into that I think it's interesting to get that historical perspective and so now over over to Silver so silver very interesting to me so gold is making these historic alltime high and silver is much below its its all-time high price so I wondered if we can at Silver in 2024 and I gu the important levels


that you're seeing for silver at the moment yeah the the most important levels are 26 which we've taken out uh and then you you have some resistance at you 28 and5 29 um we're looking at Daily and weekly charts there's some resistance there um and then uh 34 like around that area so silver has it's it's kind of made this inverse Head and Shoulders pattern over the last two or three years it's not like a perfectly textbook pattern but you know nevertheless if that does


play out you have a measured upside Target of around 34 and you know yesterday I was looking at um quarterly charts monthly charts and yearly charts and so th those are all pointing to you know 32 34 35 they're pointing to that area as the next stiffest resistance and I think the resistance in that area uh is probably going to be more significant than the $50 resistance so you're thinking about okay well when could we get a big pullback in silver and gold you know we don't know at this point and you know I'm getting


ahead of myself but you know maybe at maybe at 34 silver $34 silver maybe that's when you see silver pull back to 30 or 29 possibly uh But Here and Now go uh silver has clear 26 which is really important resistance then you have that 28 29 area and actually at the end of last week the weekly close in silver was an 11e high so it actually had a a little breakout um so nobody seems to be talking about that but um you know maybe it'll take more time to confirm that but that's where we are for silver right now


we silver should have really strong support at 26 if it does its own little retest of that breakout which is very possible and so you have this resistance to around 29 then you have 34 like that that's going to be an area of really strong resistance I would be surprised if silver blew through 34 right away like I'm saying if if precious metals stay really hot and they just they keep moving higher um then I would I think that raises the odds where you could get uh a pullback in silver you know after


it hits 4 but yeah those are and then of course you have 50 and you know if whatever silver breaks 34 and it starts running back to 50 I I mean you're you're you're set this technical base I mean we're closing in on like a 45 beer base where it would be I think the third time silver has um approached or tested $50 so whenever silver breaks above 50 to me that could be the biggest breakout of all time and again that's not that's not hyperbolic because you you you rarely see a market where


there's like a 40 or a 50 or base where it's tested it multiple times like I you know I'd really have to sit down and like go through thousands of charts to see that now Coco which we just that I think Coco was like a 40 45 year bit pretty similar um so that that's something to keep in mind but um yeah so 34 for silver that's the next strong Target but um yeah I think things could get kind of nuts when silver is approaching that breakout at 50 and and the 34 is that an area that


you think we get to in 2024 is that more looking forward a good question uh let's see how many months do we have left in the year about uh eight eight and a half months it's it's possible at this point you know I'd have to look at the gold silver ratio and do some comparisons um but I I do I I I would lean towards yes I think it could hit that this year I don't know what Target that corresponds to for gold you know maybe it's 27 2800 for gold or 3,000 but you know normally you have the gold


breakout first and then in the next couple months or nine months I mean they're all different silver makes a breakout and then after silver breaks out it really starts to outperform the problem now is is the silver breakout at 20 six which we just had or is it you know breaking above 28 or 29 so it it's not it's not clear if there if we didn't have resistance at 28 or 29 it would be more predictable but we are I you know either way I would say we're entering the point or we're getting


really close to it where silver could really outperform gold because again usually have the gold breakout first then when silver breaks out after that point is when silver really starts to outperform gold so I mean you could say 26 was the breakout or if that's wrong maybe silver has to break above 28 or 29 but again either way silver is really close Okay silver silver very tricky and I have one more question on Silver I know I know we're looking at this from a technical perspective but and we hear


you know silver will lag behind gold then it will move then it will over form this is what usually happens but Silver's got its its industrial side and I keep hearing more on the industrial side as well especially when it comes to applications in solar so for you how are you weighing that industrial side of silver into all of this uh to me I weigh at zero and I'll tell you why because historically when you go back and you look at uh you look at the last you 50 60 all these years of price action


silver basically performs best after gold breaks out the biggest breakouts in Gold that's when silver has had the best moves now maybe some will change over the years ahead but silver itself you know before we said the miners are basically an option on gold silver is actually the same like silver itself is an option on gold with the way it moves because if gold is consolidating or correcting and not doing much silver really underperforms gold regardless of what all the industrial regardless of


those numbers but if gold is trending higher if gold makes a huge breakout those are the points when you get get the strongest moves in silver so again I could be wrong maybe something will change I mean you occasionally you do have a significant change in markets it's going to be hard to know if that's actually happening um but for me I lean towards the history and that it says that silver is just it's an option on gold and that when gold breaks out and Gold's doing really well that's when


silver is ripe to perform even better so I just and you know I was looking at the last couple years I was looking at some of the industry you know the supply and demand and all those types of things but you know the market didn't break out it wasn't doing well and and you see the same thing for gold like the best years in gold and silver they perform the best when you're it's investment demand when you have the huge investment demand when they're not doing well you can look and


regardless of what the supply and demand Stuff shows you the investment demand is really low at those points so investment demand is the real driver for both and and so like I said based on the history the industrial stuff for silver I I I probably disagree with most people you interview but for me I weigh that zero doesn't mean anything for me right now and by the way silver doesn't need any of that to have this spectacular bull market and make these huge moves doesn't matter at all because based on the


history if you think Gold's going a lot higher silver will follow okay okay it's always interesting to hear opposing perspectives and I can think of at least one person who thinks the same thing about silver so you're not totally alone I think that's that's everything I had for you today on Gold and Silver the stocks but if you had any final points that you would want to leave investors with right now now would be what the T thank you I mean than gosh that's kind of difficult because I think I may have


said before I you know I like to talk so it's hard to summarize but we are in the real sweet spot for what is the biggest breakout for gold in the last 50 years this is the biggest breakout starting the biggest move that it's had you know since we went off the gold standard in 1971 so I think we talked before may I may have mentioned it earlier th this is the time where like a lot of the hyperbolic statements that people like me make and have been making for the last three or four years this is the time where it's


really ripe for those things actually to play out I mean the the technicals and um you know we can see the fundamentals this is the real sweet spot that people have been waiting for for years and in some cases decades and so that's the easy part the hard part will be keeping the money that you're going to make so everybody needs to sit down and make their own plan and figure it out because these markets over the years ahead are going to make spectacular moves but you will see increasing volatility on both


sides and you know therefore you really need to make yourself a plan and figure it out because if you don't have a plan when you're in the moment you're not going to know what to do you're going to sell at the wrong time you're going to buy a lot more when you should be taking profits So to avoid all those mistakes and keep your emotions out of it figure out your own plan okay okay I think that's a great place to wrap it up make a plan we're going to leave it there for now thank


you so much for coming on to explain everything that's going on in the precious metals markets right now oh my pleasure thank you so much for having me of course then once again I'm Charlotte cloud with investin news.com and this is J R burn with the daily gold thank you for watching if you like this video make sure you subscribe to our Channel we'd also love to hear your thoughts so leave us a comment below we'll see you next time [Music]