[Music] I'm Charlotte McLoud with investingnews docomo Solway cheap Market strategist at verified investing.com thank you so much for joining me great to have you as always oh thank you Charlotte it's so good to be here thank you really good to be catching up with you and of course I think we have to start with gold so we're speaking at a pretty historic time for gold with new all-time highs in the books but gold investors have been burned before and I think a lot of people are looking at this situation and


wondering if this is a real move for gold so want to ask you what are you seeing what are the charts telling you about the future for gold yeah so so according to what I'm seeing is is yes it is a real move for gold eventually we will finally get above that kind of 2080 level that we keep on hitting or piercing and then getting repelled back off of and so just to show the chart here we can take a look you know here was that big move up where we took out and we had that quick little pop and then the reversal you know part of that


and people don't really understand this but this move up was just when the Futures opened on Sunday night East Coast time and we saw this pop on very light volume I think stops were run at that point and it created kind of this false sense of a breakout and then obviously sellers came back in price came back in here but again notice how it stopped very quickly and we continue to make a low higher low and higher low right so that is bullish the other thing to kind of keep an eye on check this out


so if we zoom out we have a very clear uh trend line right here right so if we draw that trend line across this is a resistance trend line this is your high your previous High the second hit of it the third hit and the fourth hit what's fascinating about this is probability wise I deal with data and and probab abilities that's how I read charts is that what we know is that when you have a trend line and you keep hitting it it weakens and metrics show that when you hit a trend line on the fourth or the


fifth time it tends to break basically ramming into a door once you probably don't break it down twice maybe not by the third fourth fifth time that door is going to give way and that's what I think is going to happen here um this also happens to be and I know this is a lot but this is some cool stuff on gold is that we could also make a case that this is an inverse head and shoulder pattern which is one of the most bullish patterns in the market and so basically what we have here is a here shoulder


head and shoulder and what's cool about this is that you could actually go on and calculate out the Target price and the way you and this would be the target for 2024 what I have at least and what you do is you take the lowest point of the head here and you draw a straight line up to the neckline this orange this yellow line so that is $457 what you do is you take that exact distance and you add it on to the breakout whenever we close above this line you add $450 to that and essentially if we do


that we get and I I I have to zoom out a little bit more but basically the Target price and we'll just do it up here to about 457 right there you're looking at a target of 2024 if this completes to about $ 2530 to $40 so that's pretty cool as well I I'm going to show you one more thing and I hope people aren't getting bored of talking about gold but it is a fascinating chart is that if you look and we go to our weekly chart on gold here and Let me refresh it um so we can kind of see what we have here so if we


go to our weekly chart and we look at the data ranges so we basically had this sideways consolidation from 2013 all the way to 2018 before we broke out well that sideways consolidation was made up of a big move here a smaller move here and then a smaller move here and then the breakout and what you could see here is Big Move smaller move and smaller move here which again implies that this should be on the borderline of this type of move to the upside so again there's like lots of things and I just love charts you can


see I love charts and just finding these different kind of Confluence type things um but across the board with the FED going doish we had the just recently talking doish Le three Cuts next year Market's pricing in five or six Cuts all of these things are pointing to Gold actually officially breaking out okay thank you for going through all that I think when you show the charts and do all the drawings it makes it really clear what your projection is going to be for next year and please never apologize for talking about gold I


don't think our Channel ever gets Bor of that so pretty clear outline of where gold could be headed next year I also want to make sure that we touch on downside potential for gold and the reason I asked that is just so that people know where might be a buying opportunity if you want to add to your Holdings there on the way up yeah so and you're right that's always important because nothing goes straight up so I think it's important for us to kind of say okay well if gold pulled back to


this level would this be a good point and what I would do is I would look at the longer term chart and maybe go back to 1999 right you know to 2000 and what we could do is we can drag a trend line all the way up through these lows and and again you can see how it comes right through this Middle Point right through these lows through this low this low this low this low and again that is a sloping up trend line so if by chance you know we were to see a big pullback and I don't think this will happen but


you would have epic support around 1500 secondarily what you would also be watching for in my opinion would be kind of these secondary points which interestingly enough are also parallels and parallels are something that are very very important in charts and we can even stretch this back here but notice how this line is parallel with this line so this gives us a support around 1685 as well and again I I'm I'm personally would be very surprised if we saw this type of pullback since considering


interest rates are starting to come in I think we're actually going to see uptick and inflation again in 2024 mid to late 2024 but if we did pull back to 1675 then down to 1500 and change that would be just you know load the boat kind of scenario okay yeah really good to go over that and thanks for putting that into context so we've looked at the charts we also have to look at some of the macro events that are going to be influencing gold in 2024 and of course you started to allude to what we just


saw happen with the FED left rates unchanged at the latest meeting and people are sounding pretty sure of course the FED never makes any promises but people are sounding like pretty sure this is going to be the top of the cycle we're going to start going back down next year so your outlook for the Fed F in 2024 what can we expect to see there yeah so I do think that I mean the Fed was Jerome Powell was really clear in fact surprisingly dovish I think it caught everyone off guard we saw the reaction in gold silver uh even Bitcoin


and obviously stocks dramatic move up in stocks but I think there's two Avenues to look at here number one is he's trying to front run the elections meaning that he has to be careful to not get too involved with interest rate policy once we're within 3 or 4 months of the election so if he's going to do stuff and talk about stuff and prepare the market he has to do it in the first half of the year of 2024 uh number two is the question I would say is is he seeing something in the economy that has


him concerned where he had to Pivot faster to being more dovish than you know than otherwise um we would have expected and then the last thing I would say too is that you know Janet Yellen has been very VOC very vocal very unusually vocal you almost feel like you have two Federal Reserve chairman out here you know Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell and we know that the US has about 34 trillion of debt and 7even plus trillion of that is rolling over in the next year and so if you think about it is there some pressure being applied to


say Hey listen you know we need to get rates down for 2024 from 5% where they were because this debt will have to be refinanced essentially and we can't as a country we can be paying 5% or more on this debt it has to be lower or we're going to go bankrupt very very quickly so there's a lot of different angles here that you know who knows which one it is or maybe it's a a combination of all of them but I do think that the FED is going to try to be more dovish my bigger question though is you know here


you have a dobish fed and CPI is still three to three and a half percent you know there's three and a half% inflation out there with a stock market at at or close or some in this case of the Dow hitting new all-time highs does this create another uptick in inflation which we kind of saw in the 70s and that again is something that the markets will have to come to the Reckoning point of in in some point in 2024 yeah and definitely I was going to ask for your updated thoughts on inflation because I think you've been


telling us at least throughout this year you know the closer you get to that 2% Target the stickier it gets and it seemed like Powell this week made a comment saying yeah maybe at this point it does get a little bit harder to reduce it so do you think do they stick with that 2% Target which they have really been clinging to do they eventually let go of that any thoughts yeah I think they they let go of it and in fact I think yesterday in his statements he did say something to the effects of of you know you know


somewhere in the twos is now the goal post right so it went from oh it's got to be back to two or below to now well two to three is okay and I think he's seeing exactly the same thing I mean you have the US debt where it is consumer credit card debt by the way is is astronomical well above a trillion now more than any other time and this is all debt that is is I mean interest rates affect and so he's got to make that decision of saying well where is the acceptable level of inflation and where


can we keep rates at so we don't totally Crush people out there and crush the us as well and so yeah I do think the gold post got moved I'm not thrilled about it because I think these things were avoidable um there's no reason that the US had to be in debt like we are and I think it's also important to recognize that usually debts like government debts go up during recessions we really haven't had a recession since 2008 2009 I mean you had the covid collapse but we recovered so quickly because of the


stimulus um and to see 34 trillion about 34 trillion in debt during an expansionary period is freaking crazy because imagine I mean they're supposed to stimulate when we're in a recession and but we already have the debt up here so it's this is this is a bed that we unfortunately all have to lay in but it was really the doing of the government and the FED yeah and you're going in exactly the direction that I was hoping we could move to which is recession so we addressed that question when we last


spoke back in the summer and I think you said at the time you know there's only the tiniest tiniest possibility of a soft Landing we talked a little bit about lagging effects in the economy so I want to check in with you on recession because although we are continuing to get these soft Landing calls there's many things that you've been highlighting that show that doesn't maybe look very realistic yeah and I think it's so important for people to understand is that you know and I'm I'm someone who


looks at the data looks at the charts and looks at history history is a really good guide you know they often say history doesn't repeat but it often Rhymes and and you go back to 2008 early in 2008 B Ben banki declared victory that there would be a soft landing and everything was going to be hunky dory um and and we kind of have had the same sort of scenario in fact you could argue that yesterday the FED took a Victory lap uh saying everything was fine um and realistically you know there's there's


no way in my mind I mean like I mean there's always a probability right I'm a probability statistics guy so you know maybe 10% chance they do achieve a soft Landing or no landing at all but my issue is this is that the market is pricing in 150 basis point cut next year there is no way literally no way the FED is going to cut 150 basis points if we don't have a recession next year if we have a soft or no Landing they're not cutting maybe three three maybe just lowering a little if inflation continues


to come down so there's this disconnect going on in the system and that's one of my big concerns about the stock market is that the stock market is saying oh we're getting you know five rate Cuts next year or six rate Cuts next year and we're going to have this you know economy that's just perfect that those don't go together and again if they if if that occurred something if we saw those type of cuts you would have to have some sort of negative recession and again you could see it I mean hasb laid


off people recently um you've seen layoffs continuing you've seen Oracle report earnings recently they were horrendous Adobe just reported earnings so you're seeing the consumer starting to be stressed we know that with credit card debt the other thing we also know is that the data for Black Friday showed that there was a 50% increase in people doing buy now and pay later right if you got tons of cash you're not doing buy now pay later only when you're stressed and you're like oh


I really want that new TV but I can't afford it let me do a payment plan on it and that is not a good thing when you see a 50% increase so so I'm still in the camp that in 2024 we do see a recession the question is how bad is that recession right and of course we'll be checking with you to see how that progresses but yeah it definitely seems like we're not going to get that that happy time set the General market seems to be hoping for so we we're not quite at the end of 2023 we have a couple of


weeks left but I do want to check in because it's going to be our last time speaking this year about your calls for 2023 so when we spoke this time last year I think you had gold as the best performing asset this year outperforming Bitcoin and the S&P 500 of course that is not quite how things have shaken out so want to ask you about that and you know why did we see these these differences from what you expected yeah so gold did perform well for gold gold had an awesome year right I mean it up I


think like 15% but you're right Bitcoin obviously was the big winner of the year um I think I underes estimated how quickly risk on would come back into play um I think also the spot ETF news was a Big Boon for it uh in terms of getting people to believe in in this narrative that Bitcoin is going to just keep going and going um I'm in the camp now I I thought Bitcoin could potentially go as low as 10,000 in a worst case scenario now I'm in the camp where the only way that happens is if we


see the stock market Collapse 50 plus perc uh where would cause a massive riskof event and then that could maybe bring Bitcoin to 10 otherwise I think again you're looking at 252k as the best case scenario on a pullback on bitcoin um so that was a big performer the S&P has done well I mean I think if you before November at gold was leading the S&P now I don't believe it's quite I think they're more equal on their performance um but I'm still overall going into 2024 there is there are way


too dis too many disconnects between fed policy statements the economy and into the stock market and I continue to be very bearish and I do I do caution people to be very wary about these kind of narratives being spun that everything is going to be perfect that's usually when something pops up the vix for instance is trading at multi-year lows hasn't been seen since January of 2020 the last time the vix was this low and for those of you that don't know the vix it's basically a gauge of fear and it's


used as a contrarian indicator when it gets low people are so they're they're not fearful and so they take way too much risk they don't think anything can go wrong and that's when something goes wrong or surprises and vice versa when it's high it means people are too fearful which is usually the buy indicator so so there's a lot of kind of flashing signs out there that people still have to be careful of but I'll be the first to admit that the markets overall Bitcoin included were very very


strong this year and I think I underestimated the amount of money that was still in the system from covid I mean slashing around in there yes the FED tightened but it certainly didn't tighten enough for uh the markets to to see the drops that I thought were going to come yeah and you know I always feel a little bit bad asking people to project 12 months in advance because it's you know especially for you because I know yeah and you're looking at things every day right different factors and I'm sure


you're adjusting as you go along but nevertheless if we look forward to 2024 what do you think will be the best performing assets how do you think that that plays out next year yeah so so I'm going to stick with it you know I you know it it may sound like a broken record but I still think that I think that Bitcoin at these levels has upside to maybe around 50,000 48,000 that would coincide with the the spot ETF approval um my feeling on that is that everyone's front running this news meaning that


everyone's piling in for the news which means it could be a sell the news event I'm in the camp that I do think that we do see a recession in 2024 and we also see inflation still sticking around 3% maybe 2.8 maybe 3.1 but somewhere around there which again is going to make the expectations for all these rate Cuts very very tricky um especially if we have a recession because again it's all about can the FED cut rates enough to stimulate without causing inflation to Surge back and with all the money and


again this is pretty incredible but but when covid occurred the money supply in the US went up 40% 40% increase in money supply and we've only sub subtracted a small portion of that out via fed tightening and so there's still a lot of money in in the system but if that ever does kind of get taken out then you do have the recipe for major downside on some of these stocks so I'm going to go with gold again um again I don't know how much it'll be up and like you said it's hard to predict out 12 months my


most accurate calls are you know one to two weeks out where the charts are just lining perfectly but let's go with it gold all the way baby okay that's what we like to hear over here so thank you for that I have just a couple maybe one followup on bitcoin so we have this spot ETF approval that looks like it's baked into the market the other thing we have coming in 2024 is the having event and I am not overly familiar with Bitcoin but you know maybe if you could talk briefly about that and what investors should


know about how that could impact the price yeah so so in general havingsex but interestingly enough there's usually a run up into the having and then it's a sell off right after the having does make Supply a little less easy to come by which is why it generally will drive price up over time but to me it would be the equivalent of like that's the fundamentals of Bitcoin now fundamentals are important over the long term meaning over the next five years 10 years 15 years but in the shortterm emotion rules and so again if


you start to see other factors coming in bearish sentiment fear about uh you know asset Bubbles and and collapses that will rule the day and I think for more than anything if you look at past havs there's usually a selloff after and then eventually it climbs back up um and slow kind of the fundamentals take over so so for me at least I think again people are piling in partially for the spot ETF but also for the having and then my guess is there's a selloff after that which will then slowly kind of grind back


up okay important for for people to know next year for sure and Before I Let You Go I want to check in on on two Commodities that we really like over here and we always want to hear about so silver and uranium in 2024 if we're able to take a look at the charts for those ones and see where they may be going yeah absolutely so silver was just a beauty just the last few days I do this game plan every morning at 9 N o'clock in the morning Live on YouTube and this level I was just harping on it saying


guys this down move way over sold in the near- term on the daily chart of silver and we're we're going to get a bounce now I didn't I didn't guess we were going to get the size bounce we got yesterday on the FED that was huge but for me you're now kind of stuck underneath this Downs sloping trend line right so for me as a silver you know analyst I'm looking for price we need price to basically break above 25 and a half if it can break above 25 and a half you've got some really good upside that


I think next year could retest the $30 level um again we know that silver is partially industrial so we have to monitor the economy as well but I think overall the the store of safety aspect will take control if gold really breaks out as well and so I do think you could hit $30 in the year uh coming in 2024 and then was it uranium you were curious about yes of course that is still last twice yeah so uranium uranium honestly looks okay to me um you know you had this wedge pattern here and we broke out


we kind of had little stopping points along the way we still haven't hit the recent highs from 2021 but I do think it get eventually hit and I do think that the bigger picture here if we erase these trend lines um and we flip over to the weekly chart I think this pattern here there's a bigger cup and then this is the handle pattern and so I actually think that while you'll get a pullback around 31 and a half on the urra with the ETF that tracks uranium I think that you buy that pullback expecting a bigger


breakout on uranium and I'm still in the in the in the camp on a fundamental basis that as much as I like alternate energies like solar and wind and all this reality is is is if we're really going to deal with you know the climate stuff that's going on climate change we're going to have to go towards um nuclear and that's where this could really shine so if you're someone that thinks that way tucking a little bit of this away could pay off handsomely in the coming years all right thank you for going over


those two really good to look at the charts for them before I let you go any final thoughts that you would share with investors as we finish up 2023 and head into the new year yeah I I think for me at least the only thing to kind of keep an eye on is is the markets seem to be euphoric right now um we've had such a run up from the from the I think late October lows I think the nasdaq's up like 15 177% um yesterday or or the last fed statement created this what what could be a blowoff top I'm noticing


today a little bit of a reversal in the markets um so I'm keeping a very close eye sometimes these type of things Mark short-term Tops on the market so um just be kind of basically for everyone listening just keep your wits about you don't chase you know again if you weren't in the market sit back there'll be another buying opport opportunity people chase and then they get themselves in trouble just be patient let the charts come to you let the prices come to you okay I think that's a really good


place to finish up and thank you so much for coming on to review the year with us look forward to 2024 hope to do it again soon wonderful thank you so much have a great day of course and once again I'm Charlotte McLoud with investing news.com and this is Cara Solway with verified investing.com thank you for watching if if you like this video make sure you subscribe to our Channel we'd also love to hear your thoughts so leave us a comment below we'll see you next [Music] time