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 [Music] [Music] I'm Charlotte McLoud with investingnews docomond editor of gold newsletter and host of the New Orleans investment conference which is where we are right now thank you yes we are you're welcome glad to have you uh I guess I'm supposed to talk into this make it a little more but yeah glad to have you it's a great crowd uh very uh enthused about the the crowd that showed up you know it's been a tough Market as we all know uh but we had people who really a large contingent

coming in at the last minute just the last few weeks and I think what's going on in the world not just on the geopolitical end but there's a lot of other things kind of a foot right now that people are hungry for some analysis and trying to figure out what what's going on because it affects not just the metals but really everything um so yeah it's it's really very um gratifying to see so many people show up we have a great lineup of speakers as I know you've seen and um and they're giving

some some great advice to very interested investors yeah okay I think that gives us a good idea of of sentiment and interesting to see that that influx of last minute people I'm glad that they ended up coming I know it's it's early in the conference uh right now we're on the morning of the second day but I have to ask you just in case have you had any highlights so far any aha moments among the discussions because I know there's already been some good ones yeah there have been some good

ones um there have been some good moments in what I can see a lot of what I get from the conference is actually postc conference looking at the recordings because I'm so busy going back and forth but I am uh it was interesting in to me to see a couple of our speakers Jim Stack who is a I think the most accurate Market analyst out there uh who is positive on gold very impressed of how gold has traded despite the fact that we've had uh strength in the US dollar strength in treasury yields and yet gold has per performed

very well that's kind of a thing that I covered in my presentation last night as well and Bob pror who is the most famous Elliot wave analyst out there was also positive in gold right now and more generally speaking thinking we're we're entering kind of a major shift away from uh Financial assets toward assets Based On th you know more tangibles and metals and commodities so interesting points there but as you say it's very early in the event and we have some incredible speakers coming up uh over the next

really two and a half days at this point and really looking forward to what they're going to say as well yeah okay good to get some some early highlights anyway and I have to tell you you know I love to come here and talk to people but it's really hard to sit here and and miss the presentations so you know always always a toss of you'll have the recordings as well okay thank you very much all right so so moving on to talking about some of our usual topics we've got to bring up the FED because we

just recently had the latest meeting uh rates were left unchanged which I think was widely expected but I wanted to ask you if there was anything that stood out to you in the statement or in Powell's commentary yeah not much different uh they recognized uh the fact that the market is doing some of their work for them the so-called Bond vigilantes by tightening policy tightening raising rates a bit higher than they intended um but not as much as I would have thought he would emphasize uh they the literally

the statement policy statement had one word difference from previous from the previous statement and I even forget what that word is at the time so not a lot nothing unexpected it was the most widely watched nonevent that you can imagine and and expected to be a non-event going into it the market reaction was more I think a relief that nothing surprising happened uh than anything else so it was um I I think the most anti-climatic bed meeting that we've had in a few years interesting interesting and you know next one coming

up in December always looking forward to the next one do you think do you think more of the same then have we reached the the top of the hiking cycle as some people think yeah my thesis has been that this hiking cycle is essentially ended we are we might have another quartero hike at some point but I think that would be uh trying to deliver some kind of a rhetorical message then an actual effect to the market uh the QT is going ongoing uh which means that the FED has removed itself as a buyer of us

treasuries I think that's the big thing going on right now is that there's an enormous amount of Treasury Securities paper that has to be floated onto the market over the next uh quarter or so and there really there's a lack of buyers right now uh and especially a lack of buyers at current yields so the market is demanding from uh the treasury higher yields if they're going to take on that that risk uh because we're in a a a period right now where I think it's a uh a you know a big policy shift is

very likely at some point and investors are trying to bet on the timing of that that's kind of the only reason anybody is buying the 10year uh treasury right now it's not for the yield it's betting on when the FED pivots and it's a it's a speculation on capital appreciation and not yield-based um and so that's what's doing some of the feds tightening for them right now so yeah I I think there's a turning point coming at some point it's just finding trying to figure out whether

it's next week next month or next year and that's always the hard part yeah and I wonder if you could say more about what's going on with treasuries right now this is one topic that we didn't bring up in our previous conversation which was quite recent and I know you talked a little bit about it now but I find I find it very complex and I wonder you know if you had to break down for investors just in an easy way to understand what's going on yeah um we didn't talk about it last time probably

because there wasn't that much going on you know and it what's what's really interesting to me if you look at what happened when uh Hamas invaded uh Israel and and at that similar event you had a spike in the gold price which is to be expected it's a flight to safety Safe Haven investment and uh at that time we had treasury yield say the 10year yield uh fell which you would expect too because the treasuries are a safe haven investment as well so people flocked uh into into treasuries and the yield

dropped but it dropped only a few days and then the Bond vigilantes as they were came in demanding higher return for the risk and treasury yields Rose and that was a break of a longstanding inverse relationship with between treasury yields and gold gold kept going up and what's really interesting about not just the last few weeks but really over the last few months is the Dollar's gone up Gold's maintained uh treasury yields have risen Gold's risen it's it's really uh a it's

like cats and dogs living together you know it's like uh all of the old relationships are breaking right now now which kind of signals a turning point in the markets the one common characteristic is that gold is finding excuses to rise even when treasury yields go up even when they go down even when the dollar Index goes up even when it goes down so the correlations are different they're breaking and that's generally the sign of of something shifting in the markets and nobody can really predict what's going to happen in

any great detail so don't even bother asking me I nobody knows but one thing we can be pretty confident of is if we do have this kind of a shift in the markets this kind of added volatility you're going to want to own gold going into it yeah and I love how you put it in that you know gold is looking for excuses to go higher so I I did have a question on gold because when we talked a month ago it was much lower than it is today I think it was about 1870 right now we're 1980 is and I was going to ask you you know

what what has caused that because we had talked about that high for longer strategy is keeping a lid on gold but I think I think you've summed up kind of why that might be happening yeah if you look at the price chart it is an absolute v formation gold was in the midst of a dive when uh probably the last we talk or before we had the the situation in the Middle East erupt and then that shot it right back upward it was falling because of the FED rhetoric and and their seeming determination to

go higher for longer um what's changed since then is of course a geopolitical angle but there's something going on under the surface in that the the market and investors are starting to realize the the veritable flood of new treasury paper that's going to have to be issued over the coming months some 10 trillion dollars or more and and realizing that this means not only the rates are going to have to rise because there's not that many buyers in the market uh the FED itself has removed itself from the

market other central banks aren't buying treasuries as they used to so the market will demand the bond lanties as it were will demand higher yields and gold is responding to that kind of instability the fact that there's going to be so much more paper issued so many more dollars created um that will dilute the value of those Securities and of the currency itself so gold in this instance is actually uh recognizing not just the geopolitical crisis in concerns but also the underlying concerns of massive

deficit spending massive increases in debt and how that's all going to get financed yeah I was going to ask you if you could kind of explicitly connect that back to debt because I know it's it's a favorite top well maybe not a favorite topic but it's one that we go over a lot of the time and it's important to you yeah uh we are going to continue to reset the uh interest rates of the federal debt and in particular as I men mentioned we have about a $2 trillion deficit this year we have a

backlog of paper that still has to be issued from the debt sealing crisis of a few months back and we have uh I believe it's about 8 million or 8 trillion or so dollars in in treasury debt that's rolling over and has to be refinanced at current rates over the next quarter or so so it's just a massive tsunami of new paper issuance coming up um and all of that debt is will be reset at near current rates so as we adjusting uh from very low interest rates to much higher interest rates on the federal

debt the cost of servicing that debt is soaring right now on the latest numbers were at $981 billion so really right at that magic1 trillion Mark uh it'll get quickly to $1.5 trillion dollar in interest expense as that debt gets re set that's a tremendous amount of money that goes toward nothing doesn't go toward infrastructure doesn't go toward entitlements it goes into the pockets of of investors who bought that that treasury debt it's a political problem in other words and not just a fiscal

problem but it's a problem in both sectors uh and I think you know that's something that as you know I've been talking about for awful long time probably the last three or four years and now I think it's it's coming to a head I think we're seeing that and we're seeing that reflected by Gold's reaction okay thanks for going into that and I I won't ask you directly what's going to happen to the gold price I'm going to move on yeah simp I'll move on to uranium so in that previous interview

that we did about a month ago in the leadup to this conference you mentioned uranium as a sector that you're looking at it was we just talked about it briefly but I saw that people online had kind of picked up on that so I thought it's worth going back to and we've had prices rising pretty steadily for the last several months for your or or we can look back to arise over the last years so what is telling you that this is the time that it's it's real uh we're finally getting to the

point where the utilities have to uh resupply contracts are running out but importantly uh it it's you know the uranium story has been one uh of almost ceaselessly uh Rising um demand and mean you can look at the long-term trends and see that demand is going to be rising for years and years to come but right now it's a supply issue Russia has been effectively removed from the market not just as a supplier but as a processor and that's where the real pinch point in the supply chain is

coming and the utilities have just started to uh I don't want to say they're in panic mode because they're not but they're much more eager to go into the market and lock up supplies uh which is driving up the price and of course we have the the Sprat uh fiscal uranium trust which is uh an aggressive buyer attracted a lot of investor interest and it's taking a lot of that uh uranium off of the market when the utilities are just starting to go back to the market yeah I feel like in in

uranium you could talk almost endlessly about the different Supply demand factors that are contributing to what's going on right now the other thing I wanted to ask you about so the universe of uranium stocks we know that it's quite small and I'm wondering how you like to approach it because I hear a lot of people say you know oh you can just stick with the big wins you can go for chemical you could go for kazad promise you're okay with that kind of geographical risk but you know what

there's there's options on a smaller in the scale too so what are your thoughts yeah there are and you know if we look at the broader Universe of Junior mining stocks there's a few thousand out there and I I tell people it's a very inefficient Market you can do your homework you can outwork other people and you can use those inefficiencies to your advantage by finding great companies that have been overlooked by in the market when we had the be the great uranium Mania back in 2007 and

thereabouts we had about 400 or 500 uranium companies that just sprouted out to take advantage of that Euphoria and they're all gone now and there's maybe a dozen or 20 companies left that are worth of looking at that are the survivors you know the survival of the fittest so they have taken those assets that are were worthy out of those four or 500 companies distill them down to a dozen or 20 companies now that hold those assets that are much stronger have much better Assets Now what's going to

happen is within that much so it's an easier job to be now to to to do your analysis and when you look at those companies the ones that are are either in small scale production which aren't many or about to or close to production and can maybe take Mo ball projects and get into production uh much more quickly they're going to react first and then as the Euphoria kind of kicks in you'll get into the expiration plays who have more of the Grassroots types uh of plays the place to be right now is those companies

that are on the verge of production or being acquired by these is that suddenly get stronger because they they they get appreciation in their market value okay and you know because you mentioned that that Mania phase everyone looks back to that and they're they're excited to perhaps see that happen again this time but I'm I'm already worrying about exit strategies for people so how how can people handle that you know because we don't we don't necessarily know that will happen but you know yeah you know

it's a good problem to have the exit strategy uh and and that comes when you have a long sustainable market and you have a lot of uh at least on paper gains in these stocks uh the key is not to fall in love with the story and this is coming from somebody who habitually falls in love with story so I know where of I speak it's a tough thing because the whole uh idea of Junior Mining and investing is one of following these dreams in in Discovery in you know it's it's a treasure hunt kind of a thing so

you get involved in the stories you have and it's very hard to sell them sometimes you need to force yourself to take profits and you need to force yourself you don't have to completely exit a position but maybe do it in thirds as you've had some gains and still keep a toe in the water uh but you do need to focus that when the market hands you paper gains you need to at some point turn them into real life gains I think that that makes a lot so you can go in in your trenches you can go out in them as well it's not an All

or Nothing thing absolutely absolutely okay so we're getting to the end I'm going to finish up with what I I think it's a fun question maybe we'll see but um looking for for dos and don'ts for investors as we finish up the year and perhaps head into 2024 oh yeah we could go on for a long time on that yeah we really could uh the do I think is is easy to me that I think this is a generational opportunity in junior mining stocks um you know if you look back and I may have said this in

the last discussion uh if you look back to say 2000 the last time the market bought them gold was about $252 an ounce The Mining stock market was as bonded out as it is today uh but gold was at an all-time low and it took a couple of years of of a steady uptrend in the gold price before the junior Mining stock market really started to light up today we're only a few percentage points at this point from an all-time high in the gold price so we don't need two years of an price uptrend to get the Juniors going we probably

need two weeks or something like that to really get the market going so the due I would say is if you're not already invested in the sector get a a a position you know not individ individualized investment advice but generally speaking be in the sector because when it turns it's going to turn quickly in part uh the don't is don't give up don't give up on it you know you we're in that that part of the Year where uh you can take some tax losses Etc you need to do your individual

portfolio management but when it turns and I I think it is imminent I did think it's a generational opportunity when it turns it's going to turn very rapidly so do be involved don't be completely out of the sector perfect so I think that's a great place to wrap it up OS you had any final words do you want to lead people with uh no I think the come to New Orleans 2024 uh this is a great conference this year yeah and next year's conference will be our 50th Anniversary event so make your plans now

for coming back here in uh next November perfect I have I've already marked down the date so thank you very much for having us this year we'll see you next year and of course we'll talk in between right thank you of course we'll let you go back out on the floor once again I'm Charlotte McLoud with investingnews decom and this is Brian London of gold newsletter thank you for watching if you like this video make sure you subscribe to our Channel we'd also love to hear your thoughts so leave us a comment

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