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 We are in for a real doozy here. Buckle up. The crash has just begun. We are living through history. Only 0.25% of the time in the past century has the S&P managed to rise nine consecutive days. A 1 in400 or three sigma event. Guess what? Fully 80% of the time this dynamic has happened in a recessionary environments. Uh, not to mention just ahead of the October 1987 crash. When this bullish mania happens, it's actually a negative indicator for the stock market. The bear is coming out of hibernation and there is carnage in

our future. US economy contracts in the first quarter. Economists expected the economy to rebound in the second quarter. Well, I disagree with these economists and I'm going to give you the evidence right now. Tavi Costa, uh, this is a brilliant chart, although it's a little bit difficult to read. Uh, but, uh, USL airports are welcoming fewer international tourists. Some 4.5 million visitors arrived last month, but that is down almost 10%. So this is big indicating that this probably is a

recession. But wait there's more leading and lagging ratio of in indicates a recession. So this is the conf the conference board leading indicators divided by lagging indicators. There's only one false flag event here. This one, I don't know if it's big enough to call that a false flag, but pretty much every time uh this has been very accurate. And remember, recessions are a lagging indicator. You have to have two months of negative two quarters of negative GDP in a row for it to be

officially labeled a recession. And so, and and they don't uh get all of that information. So it takes about uh 7 months or 8 months to have all of that information. And uh and uh so by the time they say that uh a recession is happening, we've already been in it for seven or eight months, maybe nine months. And so that's the reason the bottoms here are well into the recessions. Uh but virtually every time here, this thing has been extremely accurate. And look at where we are today. Holy moly. Uh people don't feel like

buying homes. Buying conditions for housing as surveyed by consumers. So the consumers conducted the survey of who uh as as um as reported by consumers is the way this should read I suppose. So this is buying conditions the share reporting good conditions versus minus the share reporting bad conditions. And that would equal the 100 line here. So when more people are reporting good conditions than bad conditions, it's above 100. When more people are reporting bad conditions than good conditions, it's below 100. And look at

where we are today. It's the worst since 1960 is as far back as the data goes. This is the worst there has ever been as far as this data set. Uh then you've got active listings and this is in Phoenix, Arizona. Active listings of homes from 20,000 the first week in January to the middle of March over 26,000 at that that point. 26,000 in mid-March. So you're talking about a 30% increase in just two and a half months. 30% more homes listed in two and a half months. Well, that doesn't mean that they added 30% more

homes in Phoenix and they just came on the market suddenly 30% brand new homes. That means that people aren't be aren't able to get rid of them. And so, uh, the what they have to do if they can't get rid of these 30% is huge. This is enormous. Uh, if they can't get rid of them, they have to drop the price. So, what's happening with prices around the United States? We've got housing markets where home prices are falling. Uh, and this isn't all of them. This stops at 2

and a3% uh price reduction yearover-year. So, compared to last year's prices, but you're talking about almost 10% in parts of Florida. And if you notice, it's Florida and Texas, Florida and Texas. There's Arkansas, Louisiana, but then you get down here and there's Phoenix. Phoenix, Mesa, and Chandler, Arizona, minus 2 and a.5%. Now, I've watched people do this. They put a house up for sale, it doesn't sell, and in a falling market, they'll reduce it the next month or two months

later. But other people have already reduced their homes. And it's ever who whoever reduces it the most that month is the one that is lucky enough to sell and not chase everybody all the way down. Everybody's always trying to squeeze the last penny out of their home, which seems like a smart idea, but not in a in a falling market. In a falling market, you could end up chasing people down the market for years. And that is what happened after the 2008 crisis going all the way down to 2010.

Some people uh you know, real estate fell by half during that period of time. And so some people instead of uh lowering their home by 5% in a month uh they lowered it a percent a percent a percent a percent and they ended up lowering it by 50%. So uh delinquency rates of multifamily housing. Hi this is just a quick reminder we're offering you free silver at golds.com as a thank you for choosing us as your dealer. Just click the link below for details. So uh delinquency rates of multifamily housing

uh so this is Freddy Mack uh data and here is the peak of the real estate bubble in 2005 6 and 7 and then the global financial crisis and the recession of 2008 and as people lose their jobs and fall behind on payments uh it becomes delinquent and then there's foreclosures the economy heals but at the same time the foreclosures all started in this area and that causes this to go back down because that it's no longer part of this data set once they've been foreclosed on. But look at where we're starting this from. The same

levels as the worst part of uh you know the bottom of the real estate crash from 2008 through 2011. This is 200 uh 10 and 11 right there. And so this could be really bad. uh the subprime share of borrowers with debt to income ratios greater than 43%. So if you go back to the year 2000 only about 25% had debt that was greater than 43% of their income. And then we had the NASDAQ crash and it rose up to you know and 2001 uh and it rose up to 30%. And then uh we had the uh real estate bubble in 2005 6

and 7 and the global financial crisis in 2008 and it peaked at 40% and then sort of leveled off in 2009 10 11. Why did it level off instead of going higher as people lose their jobs, declare a bankruptcy? Well, it leveled off simply it it it didn't keep on going higher uh because of foreclosures. Once a home is foreclosed on, uh this they're no longer in this data set. So, there's new people coming in that are getting further behind on their payments that lost their jobs and so on. So if they have no

income, their debt to income ratio is like 100% at that point and they can't make their payments. Um, and so there were more and more of those people all the way until 2011. Except there's fewer people once somebody can't make their payments, it only goes for so many months or so on before they get foreclosed on and they're no longer in this data set. But look at where we are today. 65%. How is this possible? 65% with debt to income ratios greater than 43%. So we are starting this recession from a very

bad point. Uh so rate cut odds jump after ADP reports the weakest job growth since 2024. Uh ADP is automatic data processing. Uh ADP is the largest payroll services provider in the world. One out of you know I hate articles where they use acronyms and stuff without explaining them. Uh what is an AD ADP reports uh they didn't say you know the ADP the largest payroll provider in the world. So one out of every six Americans gets their paycheck from ADP. I hired ADP uh probably back in like 2010

uh for goldsilver.com. Uh and so the thing about ADP, they've got the data. So on April 30th, they're they're able to just press a button and generate the charts and so on. And so uh but the interesting thing is the rate cut odds the people that are betting that Powell would cut interest rates jumped right after this report. Well then Powell comes out and says that he wanted to make it clear that he's not cutting interest rates at at this week's meeting. So uh the ADP report came out last week. This week

he's not cutting jobs. Now I think the free market should be setting interest rates. It's much better to have this giant voting machine of millions upon millions of people voting with their wallets what interest rates should be doing than to have one man making decisions because one man is very easy and very often to make a huge mistake and he will be making a huge mistake with this uh I think you know if you've got to have somebody deciding what interest rates are going to be uh this

is the time to cut them and he's not going to so once again the Federal Reserve is going to be reactionary not anticipatory and it's going to cause a very large crash and I call this crash the Bernani bust. So we are in for a really bad recession and a crash and it's going to be a real estate crash and a stock market crash and we will see what happens with bonds. Uh, now Sven Hinrich. Uh, I I love Sven. Prices up, ADP jobs down, GDP down, and tariffs just making it through the supply chain.

Now, let's do tax cuts and really crank up the deficit. That's exactly what is going to happen. We are living through history. David Rosenberg. Only uh 0.25% 25% of the time in the past century has the S&P managed to rise nine consecutive days. Now, I got to take a little side tangent. The S&P only existed since 1950. So, it hasn't existed for a full century yet. That's when S&P was started. However, Dr. Robert Schiller of Yale University compiled the 500 largest comp largest largest companies that are

publicly traded in the United States going all the way back to 1880. So we have a proxy for the S&P 500. And so this what what he's stating here is measurable and this is a fact. But a one in400 or three sigma event, guess what? fully 80% of the time this dynamic has happened in a recessionary environments. Uh not to mention just ahead of the October 1987 crash. Uh so this is this is actually when the when this bullish mania happens, it's actually a negative indicator. So where is the stock market?

Well, uh, if you look at these peaks, there's like a, uh, quadruple top going on here. There's a top and a dip and a top and a dip and this, uh, one day top and another top. And those four tops, this is basically a quadruple top. They are within uh, 0.75% of each other. So less 3/4 of 1% of each other. If it's uh 3% within 3% of each other, that's considered a top. Uh you can also look at this as a double top. Uh if you're looking at it a at a as a weekly, it would be a double top.

And um uh that is the you know when you've got an M top uh that is a sign of a reversal and we're going from so the bear is coming out of hibernate hibernation and the and we are coming out of this giant bubble. Uh read my book. I believe it is uh chapter five that deals with the scale of all of these bubbles. And there's only one way

that you can measure the stock market that doesn't show it in the greatest bubble in history. And uh that way is with PE ratios. The most common measurement as far as whether the stock market is overvalued or undervalued. But even that one shows it in the third largest bubble in history, right up there with the 1929 stock market crash. So, let's take a look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average. A classic uh MTOP, a double top. And then we go over to the NASDAQ. And this one is amazing. On a

one-year chart here, you see a 1 2 3 4 five six a septuple top. This kind of resistance is so strong it's almost impossible to get through uh in this market with a recession just happening now. It is almost guaranteed that the stock markets are going to go down and that this is a dead cat bounce and only like I mean suddenly world peace would have to break out everywhere and and uh and uh Trump would have to drop all of the the tariffs and so would everybody else on the planet and then maybe this

will all reverse and we will uh see you know but this is huge the the crash that has already happened in the NASDAQ 20,000 000 down to 15,000 is a 25% market crash. So whenever it's greater than 20% they stop calling it a correction and they start calling it a bare market. And so the bear has re returned and the carnage has begun. And then we've got the worst net all of this is happening with the worst net earnings revision since 2020. So this basically I mean you take a look at this these

revisions 2020 it's the worst earnings revisions since the unexpected COVID recession with global lockdowns. Uh so we are in for a real doozy here. Buckle up. The crash is just begun. Uh I hope that you've all protected yourself and that you're going to be safe and actually profit from the carnage yet to come. I want to thank you for watching. We'll see you next time.