hey everybody Welcome to bald guy money I am bald guy and this past week was another big one for precious medals because despite a little pullback on Friday gold finished up with a new weekly closing all-time high of $2,658 per ounce and silver which is really poised to break out soon got very close to finishing above that key $32 per ounce level and as you can see here both medals are slightly outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 12 months with gold firmly in the lead up 38% over the past 12 months and silver slightly edging out the S&P 500 up 34% over the last 12 months but despite that good news the most notable thing that happened this week for precious metals was for the first time ever we saw gold hit a total estimated market cap of $18 trillion which means the value of all the gold in the world together is now estimated to be18 trillion and when you add silver to that which is nearing a $2 trillion estimated market cap itself that means together gold and silver are valued at nearly $20 trillion and because of that I am starting to hear people ask is this the top for precious metals now we're going to dig into that in a moment but with global public debt having hit 97 trillion dollars last year most of which is held by the United States Japan and China as you can see in the image on the right using very simple logic we have to assume that both gold and silver still have a lot of room to run from here as the governments of the world will presumably print the dollars Euros Yuan and Yen they need to repay this debt now instead of just pointing out the obvious that this is going to eventually lead to higher precious metals prices as well as more inflation in this video I want to show you all some new analysis that I put together which shows us just how high gold and silver prices can go based on current trends as well as how much they can pull back after we see a blowoff top and this will be big for those of you saying that gold and silver are too expensive right now using that as an excuse not to take any action because I think this will open your eyes to the size of the gold and silver opportunity as well as make you feel more comfortable about the downside risk and once we've covered that I will be responding to an angry viewer comment I received on the topic of gold and silver versus fixed income savings products like bonds and certificates of deposit and it includes some very important analysis that all of you should see on the topic of return on cash savings now just before we dive in I have another free article at Summit medals.com for you all to read after this video it's all about timing the sale of your precious metals to make sure you sell at not only the right price but also for the right reasons and for my American viewers if you are looking to buy Friday's mini dip please check out our 1 G bars which are now only 11% above spot that is an incredible price for those of you who feel you are being priced out of gold right now but that deal ends today and I will leave the link to that as well as my new article in the video description below just remember that Summit medals.com for great prices on gold and silver as well as great customer service so jumping into the main topic for this video the point I was trying to make in the intro was that I don't think that many people are thinking logically when it comes to the current prices of gold and silver maybe some of you got burned in the 2011 blowoff top when the prices went up very high compared to where they had been in the previous few years I can fully understand that some of you having been burned by that situation may want to be cautious today when adding to your gold and silver positions but the financial risks we are facing as people right now as a result of Fiat debasement are simply too large to ignore because it is eroding the quality of life that many of us used to have when the governments of the world were at least reasonable about how much money they were Printing and as I said last week don't count on any government issued gold back currency to get us out out of this mess because as we saw in Zimbabwe this week their gold back currency the zig devalued was devalued by 40% versus the US dollar and that's in a time when gold is going up versus the US dollar so this is just another case in point of why I tell people to take control of their financial destiny and get at least some of their net worth in gold and silver now so as I said I've prepared some new analysis for you all and I'll start with gold because I want to show you all that the last two times gold started making moves like the one we're seeing right now the US dollar price of gold increased by an average of 551 from bottom to top and there's no reason to think that it's going to be any different this time around especially with central banks participating in the buying which is something we didn't see in those first two examples and for that reason I actually think using the average gain from those two periods gives us a conservative estimate of where gold is going to top out at and as you can see here in US dollar terms that would bring gold to a price of $771 per troy ounce which is $1 190% higher than where it is today and this highlights the opportunity I was talking about a moment ago but as you can see in the chart after each blowoff top there was a pullback followed by some sideways price consolidation and that's what the Skeptics are going to point to when trying to justify not taking action and not buying gold or silver right now because they're always waiting for the pullback so for those of you waiting for the blowoff top dust to settle thinking you're going to get a great deal on gold at some point in the future I have prepared this data and it measured a drop from the conservative high that I just showed you that is equal to the post 2011 drop we saw that pulled gold price down by 35% now let me be clear here if we see a major move up on gold like I am expecting to see I do not expect a 35% pullback afterwards in fact I would expect that pullback to be closer to 15% maybe even 20% before consolidating and moving back up again but the data I've prepared here is to show you what can happen if we repeat that post 201 blowoff top pattern which for me is the worst case scenario and in that worst case scenario the pullback would bring us to just above $5,000 an ounce for gold which is 89% higher than where the price of gold is today now moving on to Silver and this one is sure to be a bit controversial silver always is because as you can see here the last two bull market moves on Silver saw the price of the metal go up an average of 700 % from bottom to top and if we measure that bottom for silver at $143 per troy ounce that suggests that we are currently on a trajectory to hit Triple digit silver with a projected top at $14.50 per ounce at some time during this current bull run now please remember I'm not telling you when I think that will hit because I have said I am looking for $60 silver by 2026 and that's a number I am confident in but the numbers are the numbers and this is the top out scenario for silver that the numbers are suggesting but as was the case with gold we also see serious Corrections for silver after the major moves up and those moves down on Silver have historically been larger than on gold because silver is just more volatile than gold is it has bigger moves up but it also has bigger moves down and using that last move down on Silver after the 2011 blowoff top as our reference you can see here that silver price crashed by 71% and from that top I just showed you that would bring us back to $33.2 per ounce now on the bright side that is still higher than where spot price is today but as was the case with gold I wouldn't expect such a harsh correction this time around and at minimum would expect expect that historic resistance level of $50 an ounce to hold if silver made it all the way up to $114 an ounce that said my goal in this video was to tell you all whether I thought gold and silver were closer to the bottom in price or closer to the top to give all of you who are using the current price as an excuse not to buy a real logical reason to rethink that approach and to also give those of you who stayed on a schedule and who are staying on a schedule the confidence you need to carry on because despite the very real possibility of some pullbacks maybe as soon as tomorrow with the closing of the month and expiration of options as we close the financial quarter from where we are today those pullbacks mean little in the greater scheme of things and before we move on to the viewer question for this video I will tell you all what I told my patreon members after the Trump Harris presidential debate and that is with central banks putting a floor under the price of gold and Wars setting the stage for potential large moves up in price the benefits of waiting for the pullbacks are now smaller than the risks associated in waiting for them so as we move on to this video's viewer question please let me know in the comments section if you agree with what I've said or if you think I'm way off your opinions matter to me that said this video's viewer question is not so much a question as it is a comment and it comes from from Steve morrisy hello Steve if you're watching out there although judging by your comment I I doubt you are and Steve said in his comment under my video from last week that he got out of precious medals because getting 5% on cash is better and less volatile and he even told me to do the comparison to validate that he's correct on this topic so although I'm not sure if Steve is watching I mean it seems he's a far bigger fan of getting 5% on cash than he is of precious metals I wanted to cover this topic to help you all understand a few things that people who have become accustom to hire cash returns seem to be forgetting and it starts with the fact that as great as parking some cash in a certificate of deposit or money market account at 5% is and I've told you all recently that I have some cash set aside in such products as I wait to see what happens in this market 5% has still seriously under performed silver gold the GDX which is the large miners ETF and the S&P 500 over the last 12 months so I'm not sure that I'd be thrilled with only 5% knowing that I missed out on significantly larger gains in all of those places but of course you could argue that's just the last 12 months and medals have performed terribly on a longer timeline that is of course until you look at the analysis I have shown here in the past that clearly demonstrates how both gold and silver when purchased on a simple schedule of $200 a month at a 15% premium above spot have both outperformed cash getting 5% per year compounded and that doesn't even include the tax that most people pay on those cash returns so even on a longer time Horizon Steve who I respect for sharing his thoughts this isn't meant to shame him or embarrass him is incorrect when it comes to the Safety and Security of a guaranteed 5% cash return versus purchasing precious metals gold and silver on a schedule but the most important part of my answer and the main thing I think our commenter overlooked is the fact that getting 5% on cash is not normal what we've had for the past 16 months with interest rates as high as they've been is the exception to the rule since January 2000 it is not the rule and I've mapped out here on an image showing the federal funds rate which identifies when and for how long people were able to get 5% on their cash savings and I've clearly added in the caption at the bottom of the screen that of the 297 months that have passed since January 2000 a Cash Saver could realistically have gotten 5% on their cash savings during 41 of those months which is only 14% of the time with cash Sav spending the majority of time since January 2000 in a low interest rate environment receiving anywhere from 0.5 to maybe 1% on their cash savings while inflation did its job and made that a real negative return and it's during those moments when you're not getting much of any return on cash savings that it's most important to own gold and silver because such an environment is not only inflationary meaning it fully eats up your modest cash returns and then some it is also the perfect environment for precious metals to thrive in and we've seen that in each rate cutting cycle since 2000 as shown here where you can see how much Metals prices increased in percentage terms from the very top of the interest rate cycle to the bottom of it and considering the fact that we are for the first time ever entering a rate cutting cycle with the price of gold at a nominal all-time high I fully expect gold and silver to not only continue their winning performance versus 5% cash returns I expect them to blow those results away so despite the fact that gold and silver may look very expensive relative to where they've been over the last 10 years I want to remind everybody that at least from my point of view we're likely closer to the bottom today than we are to the top and considering the risk of higher inflation showing its ugly face again as we start cutting rates with gold already at a nominal all-time high I think it's very important if you're not already on a gold and silver purchasing schedule to get on one and I do have still a couple points of housekeeping to take care of before we finish this video the first one is I was watching my friend two is one's video yesterday and as usual he's showing off his gold the guy loves to show off gold doesn't he anyhow he was showing a beautiful arus coin a gold coin that was used in the Roman times to make the point that gold has been used as money for more than 2,000 years and what I want to do in this video is to kind of meet his message and say that it also applies to Silver and this is a silver dinius featuring the wife fosa of Marcus Aurelius who appeared on his gold coin which also shows the fact that it's not only gold but it's also silver that have played the role of money for thousands of years one last last thing before I finish this video I really want to say that for those of you who do not have any gold for those of you who are heavily heavily heavily stacked into silver honestly please consider visiting Summit medals for those 1 g gold bars this weekend they're at 11% above spot and you can get this awesome wallet here for $4.99 if you want a place to store them anyhow if you don't have any gold really please consider going over to Summit medals.com to take care of that to take advantage of that deal I should say because I think it's a fantastic deal I'm honestly I'm not trying to sell you on anything right now I'm really just saying that that deal is not going to last that one gr gold bar is basically being sold at the premium of uh of a half ounce coin or a quarter ounce coin so you're able to basically get your first gold not only for less than $100 but at a very reasonable reasonable premium so anyways I just want to encourage everybody to go and check out the website for that deal it ends this weekend because I think it's a fantas fantastic way once again to get your first piece of gold so with that said as I end all of my videos I want to encourage you all to take care of yourselves of course but also to take care of each other I'll see you all in the next one goodbye and take care