gold news

 Hello everyone, welcome to Bald Guy Money. And this past week we saw something very interesting that is quite possibly the opposite of what most people would have expected. And that is we saw both gold and silver finish down on the week. But the mining stocks which usually follow metals, they went up. And it marks what I think is a significant moment in the precious metals bull market because this is not the first time we've seen this happen. In fact, we saw it in March 2009 in the early days

of what was to be a massive move up for both gold and silver heading into 2011 when gold reached nearly $2,000 an ounce for the first time and silver reached nearly $50 an ounce. And instead of this this slight pullback in metals this past week being a sign that the precious metals bull market is over, what I think this is really telling us is money. And here I'm talking about institutional money is rotating. some of their profits from physical metals into mining stocks with the expectation of seeing them

catch up and eventually outperform physical gold and silver as their profits rise on the back of higher precious metals prices once they break out from this price consolidation phase. And this is something that you're not going to hear on many other channels. And it's a topic that was completely inspired by this viewer question from Super Mash who asked me if he should sell his gold to buy mining stocks in anticipation of the coming out performance. And because this is first and foremost a viewerdriven channel,

that is exactly what I intend on talking about in this video. Starting with the surprisingly different factors that are influencing gold and silver performance versus mining stock performance with an explanation about the short-term versus long-term prospects of each one. Once those two topics are covered, I will tell you if I would sell my gold and silver or even just some of it to buy mining stocks today. And I am going to finish this video on a topic that some of you have also asked me about and that

is why I do not do sponsored mining stock videos anymore. So stay tuned to the very end for that because I will be revealing some insider secrets on that topic, including what I make from YouTube. But just before we dive in, please remember to check out summitmetals.com if you want to buy gold and silver at a great price from a dealer you can trust, including super low prices this weekend on gold American Eagle coins, which are being sold for very little above spot. I highly recommend you gold stackers, check that

out. And for new customers, don't forget to claim your 5 ounces of silver at spot when you use code new customer at checkout. Details are in the video description below. So, to start, for those of you who may not be aware, after a 12year bare market for mining stocks where they really didn't do much of anything, they've really come to life again with the large miners ETF, the GDX, that allows you to invest in a group of gold mining companies, not far off now from its 2011 high. In fact, it

only needs to go up about 8% from here to match that high. And I think once it breaks above, we're going to see new highs set because things look very good for these stocks. And it's why I entered mining stocks in July 2023 along with my Patreon community. Now, to put things in focus for you, the reason things are so bullish for mining stocks right now is because many of them are getting gold out of the ground for about $1,600 an ounce. And this is precisely what Peter Schiff is talking about when you hear

him say that by purchasing mining stocks, you are getting gold in the ground at a cheaper price than buying it in physical form from a dealer. And when you add to that just how high the average price of gold has gotten in 2025, as well as factor in the current price, which is still about $200 per ounce above the average annual price for 2025, it becomes very clear why these mining stocks are starting to attract so much interest and why so many of them have been reporting record profitability. And I think these stocks

are going much higher still. and I am holding on to the ones that I own very tightly as institutional investors start scaling in. And what makes me so sure that these mining stocks are going higher is because metals are going higher. And as I've been saying since we made a local bottom in 2022 for the prices of both gold and silver, rate cuts and a sinking US dollar are going to continue to fuel moves up for gold and silver. And given the fact that there is a more than 90% chance of a Fed rate cut in the month of September with

clear signs of economic slowdown in the United States and a total of 5 to seven interest rate cuts expected between now and the end of next year. We are entering the next phase of this game. And this next round of Fed rate cuts has the potential to solidify a new price floor under gold, which is already arguably above $3,000 an ounce. But this would be a new floor at a higher level. And why I say that is because, as I've demonstrated in past videos, even in a market crash scenario, gold does not

break below the level it was at when the first Fed rate cuts took place. And considering the long break that we've seen between the last Fed rate cut and presumably the next rate cut, which I expect to take place in September, I see this as potentially a new start for the price of gold, which means a new floor for the price of gold. And for silver, which I said in a recent video, I do not think will go below $30 an ounce ever again. This is going to be jet fuel because what we've observed during the

last three US interest rate cutting cycles, and this applies to the early 2000s, the financial crisis in 2008, as well as 2020, is that silver doesn't really make its big move up until we reach the bottom for the Fed funds interest rate. But once that bottom is reached, and you can see that in the image on the screen right here, silver makes explosive moves to the upside. And once again, that is bullish for miners who will continue to realize higher prices on the precious metals they are mining and then selling. So now that we

know all the good news, it's time to really dig into the question of if I would sell my gold and silver today to buy these mining stocks. And to best answer that, we have to zoom out a bit and take a look at historical performance because there's an important lesson here. And the main lesson is that gold and silver have both massively outperformed the GDX mining stock ETF since its launch in May 2006 with the ETF up 60% over that time. Silver up 178% over that time and gold up a whopping 412%

over the same period. And this tells us a lot because where gold and silver are beautiful in their simplicity, reliably moving up along with rising global debt levels and the debasement of global currencies associated with rising debt. The value of mining stocks are subject to other market forces. Starting with the price of oil, which as you can see here is down significantly from its 2022 highs at about $120 a barrel and is now down to just above $60 a barrel. And since oil price is roughly 15 to 20% of

a mining company's all-in sustaining cost, so the cost it takes them to actually pull an ounce of gold or silver out of the ground. This is a major reason why mining stocks are massively outperforming metals right now because higher metals prices and lower costs driven by lower oil prices are leaving miners flush with cash. They have tons of cash. Not only making their earnings more attractive versus major S&P 500 companies, but positioning many large mining companies to purchase back stock

that they've issued, increasing the value of the remaining stock in circulation. And I'll talk a bit more about that later on in the video. But the point of this is to say that any disturbance in the Middle East that drives oil prices up could have a devastating impact to mining company profitability. And that's not something you have to worry about when you're holding physical metals. And it's exactly what we saw in the period from about mid 2020 to early 2022 where gold and silver prices were strong, but

rising oil prices hurt the profitability and stock prices of these mining companies. Now, I understand metals prices are much higher today than they were back in 2021. And with the global economy likely in recession, I don't see the price of oil bouncing back anytime soon. That's honestly how I'm assessing the market situation right now. And that means on a short-term basis, upward momentum for mining stocks should continue. And because of that, I remain very bullish on these stocks. But as

long-term holds, as an alternative to owning physical precious metals in your hand, physical gold and silver, the risk goes up even more because on top of the oil price and cost of mining it out of the ground risk that you're exposed to when you own these mining stocks, you have to add the risk of company mismanagement, which we've seen happen countless times in the mining space over the last 10 to 15 years, as well as jurisdictional risks. associated with countries nationalizing their mines and basically stealing what

the mining companies have worked hard to dig up out of the ground as metal prices go up. And since gold and silver are a failsafe in uncertain economic times, an insurance policy if you will, some others refer to it as an insurance policy just in case something catastrophic happens in the financial system like we saw in 2008 which started in the USA and later spread triggering the European sovereign debt crisis. My answer as to if I would sell my gold and silver to buy mining stocks is a definitive no because gold and silver

are my risk off holdings, my hedge to all the other risk positions I have in my portfolio. And although miners will go up significantly over the next two years, I keep that money the money for mining stocks separate from the money I have in precious metals. Now before I move on, I will say this and this is just the honest truth about how I see the market developing right now. The biggest gains in this metals bull market over the next two years or so will be made in the mining stocks. Specifically,

smaller producers, some of which are listed in the Junior Miner ETF, the GDXJ, which as you can see here is still very far off its 2011 highs. And some of these companies will still go up in value 10 times or potentially even more from here, especially once we start to see more acquisitions in the mining space where the bigger miners start paying a premium to buy the smaller miners. So, this is not to tell you don't own mining stocks because I own mining stocks. I have a portfolio of them that I share on my Patreon that is

up more than 100% since July 2023 and I think it will do another 100% still. But you can't go into this without having some knowledge and you have to be very careful who you listen to. And if you don't want to join my Patreon, that's fine. I'm not trying to sell you my Patreon on this. And I will tell you in a moment another place you can get reliable information on mining stocks. But just before I do that, I want to address why it is I don't do sponsored mining stock videos anymore because it's

very much related to what I've been talking about in this video. And the reason is risk level. Now, let me start by saying that making videos about gold and silver on YouTube does not pay well. And I understand why channels take the sponsorship money because doing literally one video from a mining company, from one of these mining stocks, gives you about as much money as YouTube will pay you for two or three months of making content. And that's not a joke. I have said no to over $100,000

in sponsorships from these mining stocks over the last year. And it's not like I can afford to say no. And you can see that on the screen here because YouTube over the last 28 days, and this is data pulled fresh from today, as of making this video, has paid me less than $3,000 over the last 28 days. So, when you see those ads, don't hate on the guys doing them because some of them are good guys, some of them are friends of mine. Just be aware of what it is they're informing you about because that's really all

they're doing. They're not trying to sell you something. they're informing you about the possibility of investing in something. Now, what you need to specifically be aware of in this scenario is the difference between a company that is in the exploration stage, meaning they have a piece of land, but they're not actually mining anything from it yet, and a producer who has a piece of land and are mining it and making money from it. Because a lot of these companies paying to advertise

on YouTube channels, these mining companies are exploration companies. And from an investor's point of view, that often means years before a real mine goes into operation or the company is purchased by another mining company. Now, what that often means for people who buy shares in these companies is they get diluted, which is the issuing of additional shares to fund their business operations. Because remember, these guys aren't producing anything. Many of them are not producing anything.

They're not actually mining something out of the ground and then selling it to fund the business operations. How they fund the exploration and the people running the business is by selling shares to people like you. as they need more money over time to continue to fund business operations and they issue more shares to do so. That makes the shares that you've purchased potentially today or in the past as time continues to march on worth less as there are now more of those shares. And you can think

of it like adding water to a glass of Coca-Cola. Sure, it may look the same, but it doesn't taste the same. especially when the money raised from new shares goes towards funding the lifestyle of the people running these companies which is a lot more common than you may think it is. So because of that I decided I wouldn't take these mining company sponsorships on my channel anymore even though the money is absolutely fantastic and you know none of these content creators are actually saying I recommend this stock. Well,

maybe one of them actually sometimes does, but you know, most of these guys don't do that. They're just kind of informing you it's out there. But I wouldn't feel good about taking these sponsorships knowing that even one person took a risk on something they didn't fully understand and ended up losing money because of it. And it's why I put together my own mining portfolio, which is a mix of large and small producers. And again, you can get that on my Patreon along with lots of other

content. And I'll leave the link to join in the description. and pin comment below. But if you want another great point of view from a person that I absolutely trust in this space, you can also check out my friend Jordan at the Daily Gold. And I'll link up his website below. And by the way, he's not paying me to say this. I just think he's a really good guy. I think he's a really smart guy. And I think people, especially in the heat of a bull market, can end up getting persuaded to make

very bad decisions for all the wrong reasons. And because of that, you need to be very careful right now because although it's true some of these exploration companies can moonshot and do a 50x, can do a 100x and some of the faces behind them are telling you that's exactly what they've done in the past and that's how they made their fortunes. The fact is that most of these exploration companies, more than 90% of them, I would venture to say probably around 95% of them end up losing about

90 to 95% of their value. And if you don't know what you're doing, you can lose a lot of money. So again, if you don't want to join my Patreon, consider joining my friend Jordan's service at the Daily Gold because these are at least two places I know you can get some reasonably trustworthy information on the topic. So I want to thank everybody who made it to this point of the video. Thank you for watching all the way through. Please remember to leave a like below if you enjoyed this content. And

if you think this message that I presented in this video, which is maybe a bit of a unique message, I think in the precious metals community is a message that people in your life need to hear. Please don't be shy. Share this video with them as it helps my channel grow. And until the next time we see each other, everybody, as I say at the end of all of my videos, please remember to take care of yourselves, but remember more importantly to take care of each other. See you in the next video. Goodbye.