Now, the PBOC implemented silver export controls [music] and they're in effect in mainland China. And while these same four LPMCL clearing members are able to access [music] offshore CNH future silver uh from the westernf facing uh Shanghai gold exchange international hubs. The bullion is also being competitively bid to fulfill other global shortages further tightening supply. Everyone wants silver. [music] So while these inadequate LPMCL US and China shipments may have brought some [music] temporary default relief,
the net solution to avoid default is for these silver cartel members to buy back large unallocated silver exposure with physical at higher market prices. What we're witnessing is an at all cost protection of the officially held COMX LBMA OC bets against silver futures breaching very large shorts stops that have only just begun to be tripped off above the May the 1st 201150 highs which was here. And notice that the pullbacks have come back to this level. Now, these stops, the further up you get here,
these stops will ignite, can really risk igniting and ultimately will spiral into out of control disconnect versus the globally determined spot silver benchmarks. very short term. We assessed in our last episode and in the prior ones, while we expect 53 to be the next uh rally staging post, liquidity providers assess $140 silver would provide the most likely staging point to bring sufficient bullion to market. And it will require sufficient bullion to come to market for the um for basically to for for the short covering to be
completed. Now we were looking at futures but [music] in the spot market the real spot market which is basically uh driven by every single other currency FX currency in silver making all-time fresh highs. We have indeed uh seen silver testing the 53s uh the mid 53s and it's really this EFP spread which we're sort of looking at and going to explain uh better uh that is causing this disconnect. Here's a quick example of silver [music] in offshore in the SGI exchange, the offshore Chinese exchange.
And while I'm looking at also uh gold. So, as is evidenced by the unprecedented full spectrum backquidation into as deep as July 2028, mind-boggling. You have to look at it to believe it. as we and it's improved somewhat but this is a broken market and as we assessed last time even into the 1979 to 1980 Hunt brothers short squeeze these sort of backquidations did not exist whereas the Hunt brothers backquidations were able to be contained and cashtled inside the siloed comx uh where where
essentially that's where the market was. [music] Now the price hacking physical liquidity has been captured by the westernf facing SGI [music] physical exchanges influencing every other silver and gold foreign exchange cross and as we previously ascertained the quarterly OC reports the office of the controller reports lists the historically acred unallocated unbacked foreign exchange silver derivative bets being a stick handled for the Fed by the two remaining Fed agent banks, JP Morgan and City. Now, do remember uh we showed
the third quarter unwind of the 5-year derivative bets. [music] That was an important point to note. But actually out of the four LPM LPMCL members [music] that's ICBC, Standard Bank, JP Morgan, UBS and [music] uh obviously um so basically it's only JP Morgan that provides the uh the only LPMMC um cartel member that provides the conduit into the OC derivative bets. So you know ICBC standard banks uh due UBS and JP Morgan. Now, notably, and by absolutely no coincidence, last week's rushed together proposed OC rule,
there was a rule change. It slipped under the radar. Now, the CME finally raised their gold and silver margins respectively from 17,000 to 18,000 and in silver from 16 to 17,000. Now, by last Friday's London Open, lease rates to borrow silver to meet immediate delivery demand spiked way north of 24%. We're using 24%, but it was actually over 30%. Driving the silver short squeeed um EFB basis spreads that we just talked about. Uh and here we captured it here live at a huge $2.80. That's $14,000
cont uh dollars per contract difference. In fact, it has been as high as $3 or $15,000 per contract. Now, the expanded basis spread misplaces [music] the spot equivalent fix. So, to illustrate, we spot adjust it in and demonstrate it in green at the fix hours. And as you can see it is substantially higher than the comx where where we where we actually equivalent to place the equivalent comx fix. At the peak we captured these unprecedented futures backwardations extending all the way through to July
2028. This is mindboggling. It's unprecedented. illustrating it illustrated mispricing comx silver market futures are completely broken. The market's broken whereas in real time we're evidencing the SGEcentric physically subtle global spot markets shaking this comx tail. It's just it's amazing to me that how few people have actually woken up um to this [music] this this huge breaking of the of the Comx. In fact, the SGI silver prices are setting locon spot prices [music] consistently onetoone mirroring the
fresh highs in spot silver as well as [music] gold. And in short, the unprecedented supply constraints there is hoarding alongside strategic positioning around critical M minerals leading to global export controls [music] have left London silver cupboards absolutely bare. Now worse, unallocated undeliverable Loco London FX um obligations that have been so-called hedging these comx short positions. So when they're called on for physical delivery, these bets in London, these bets are impossible to cover into
globally driven higher physical priced demand. And what it's done is exposed these asymmetrically mismatched LBMAC CME derivative bets as naked. Now these bets are being called in. That's what's happening. Threatening default if they're not brought back at brought back at higher prices, further tightening supply. Please subscribe to our channel and activate the bell icon to receive timely updates.
0 Comments
Post a Comment