gold news

 we are up at a gold silver ratio of about 90 to1 and I'm expecting it to go to like 10:1 in other words if gold Rises uh 200% or 300% you can take that times nine would be the performance of silver the borrowing fee on SLV ETF has just gone vertical up 10x since this morning 10x wow well and look at that green bar at the end [Music] hi everyone I've got Alan Hibbard with me once again and this is sort of a continuation of the last video I did about the uh gold and the gold alarm ringing so Allan uh take us through this

a little uh you've prepared a pretty nice followup to that very very detailed uh video yeah your video was awesome first of all so if anyone hasn't seen it I would encourage everyone to check it out but yeah big moves are happening in the gold market and the silver market actually so I want to share some things um about delivery deliveries um lease rates uh just buying volumes um you know things are moving big time so wanted to bring it to everyone straight away so first of all I want to start with this

from TF medals report frankly I think they're out of gold so yeah right and that is pretty much the theme of the previous video is uh showing that there is a real tightness in this market right now however the tightness uh isn't you know the the general public the retail small retail investor has sort of been sleeping this whole time the big smart money is awake and so what they're buying is the stuff off the Commodities exchange what is tight right now it's kilo bars and 100 ounce bars that is the

thing that is becoming hard to get and then there's weight times on it so yeah yeah exactly so we're going to dive into that throughout this video um but first for anyone who does want to go back and watch the previous video this is what it looks like the gold and silver alarm so I believe that video is about an hour long but it is chalk full of amazing content very comprehensive so I would encourage people to check that out yeah you did a great job Mike as always thanks yeah um okay a lot of work let me

tell you yeah I know I know okay data from the world gold Council in the final quarter of 2024 when Trump won the US election buying by central banks accelerated by 54% year-over-year up to 333 tons massive wow 333 tons in just the uh the final quarter that's amazing okay yes exactly so central banks a major source of gold demand bought more than a thousand tons for the third year in a row in 2020 24 so over a th000 tons in a year and that's three years in a row they've bought that much this is

absolutely tremendous uh that's where a lot of the gold is disappearing to and that's also a big reason why the price is going up so much yeah yeah so yeah in 2025 we expect central banks to remain in the dri seat driver seat and uh gold ETF investors to join the fry so you know I said it in uh the video that I really think that anybody buying ETFs if you if if they think they're buying real gold and silver on their brokerage platform I think they're fools I'm so I'm sorry I just gotta say it that this

is a foolish thing to do uh the cost difference of actually having gold that is in your name in a vault that is not connected with the comx I mean think about it if you've got uh if there's problems and they've got pallets of gold and some of it's Commodities exchange and some of it's not it's just eligible can they double count I I don't know I just don't like the idea of holding any of my precious metals in a comx depository so and all of this when it's an ETF uh would be held in those

depositories it's it's a bad idea and then right in the uh in the prospectus it says that under certain Market ill liquidity conditions which is what we have right now uh the price price of the shares can diverge from the price of the metals and fall and I mean they're admitting it that this is not gold and silver you know so go ahead I'm sorry I exactly you're absolutely you're absolutely right it's a good reminder for everyone um yeah yeah there's no substitute for physical right so so

let's look at the price here um Northstar here says gold I am Telling You for the third time are you listening a 45-year resistance Line is now acting as support a new gold bull era is opening up in front of our eyes in real time so here we go we're going back to the the Peak at the end of the uh the 1970s Bull Run and you can see this 45-year resistance line which is now support we've broken through and you know I guess we'll see if that acts as support but if it does uh this is this

is incredible a slingshot move is coming I can tell from looking at this chart though that it's monthly data and that's not an $873 high in 1980 because it didn't spend very many days up near that high it was a super Spike and so uh you could Redd draw that line and the support would actually be at a much lower level it's still valid uh that when you've got gold in in 1980 looking like a double top uh whenever you see that it's so the the first Spike should be a lot higher

than the second Spike uh and so when you see it looking like a double top that's always like monthly data uh and so uh if he if this was drawn on a daily uh what you would see is up where it says three where where the uh line is acting as support that line would actually be a little bit lower because the starting point would be higher on the uh leftand side of the line so yeah okay there's some very important stuff here so why don't you uh show us this uh CR indicator yeah absolutely so the price

is interesting the resistance becoming support is interesting the potential of a slingshot move is interesting but to your point Mike the CR indicator here is the most interesting um so there's uh if you guys see this there's 16 colored boxes here uh the first 10 of which have turned red these are indicators and the remaining six of which are still green so these are these are indicators like what the S&P is doing um what the dxy is doing the Russell like a whole bunch of indicators that

you'd expect in the economy and I want to read the significance of these indicators turning red and what happens on once they all turn red so I'm going to zoom in here on this gray box looks like this when all the boxes turn red a CR is confirmed that's a capital rotation event basically Capital rotating from risk assets into Safe Haven assets they only all turn red together during a capital rotation event one by one they turn red as the capital rotation process continues leading to

the eventual event confirmation this leads each time to Gold Rising hundreds of percent stock market hang on one second gold Rising hundreds of percent in the video that I just did I talk about silver and we are up at a gold silver ratio of about 90 to1 and I'm expecting it to go to like 10 to1 in other words if gold Rises uh 200% or 300% you can take that times nine would be the performance of silver yes sorry I interrupted no it's that's it's a good reminder thank you so in in this Capital rotation event what

else happens well stock markets fall 50 to 80% over a 1 to twoe period that is fast falling 50 to 80% in one to two years right and if it falls 80% that means only 20% of your capital is l and so it has to grow by a factor of five to get Break Even it has to increase by 400% over that 20% that is left a 400% gain in the stock market is very difficult to get and takes years and years and so um uh you really want this is I believe that this is a time to be protecting your Capital absolutely I agree completely yeah yes stock market

markets then take many more years to get back to their previous highs and make a new high that marks the next rotation in favor of stock markets and risk assets while stock markets slowly claw their way back to previous highs gold silver Commodities energy oil massively outperform Rising hundreds and in some cases thousands of percent wow yes so this is that big cap capital rotation that we see uh that sometimes takes decades to swing back and forth right so um could the stock market Fall 50 to

80% I mean is there is there precedent for that or we are we lining up in a way that is anything similar to a crash in the past yes this here is the Dow Jones comparing the current setup to 2008 and it's a huge warning so the bottom half of this chart is the Dow uh going from 1997 to well basically the 2008 crash and and the top half of the chart looks scary similar um it's going back to basically the covid crash until today and you can see that we've got this this rounded top we've got some volatility a

tight trading range a shoot up to a double top and then a giant crash and it looks the exact same in the top half of the chart it's kind of strange how how similar it looks right these things sometimes can be self-fulfilling too where uh enough people see this and so this is going around and it causes them to get worried and they sell and it and it begins so yeah so what was the size of that uh crash in 2008 well we were at about 14,000 on the Dow and it went down to about 7,000 so it got cut in half 50%

50% just like it said in the uh the um rotation that they were talking about yes exactly so if that were to happen today you know around we're around 44,000 that could go down to 22,000 50% over the span of maybe a year and a half two years well you know the last time around uh Ben berane printed and printed and printed so that bottom uh in 2009 wasn't what a free market bottom was uh he caught it at 50% and made it Bounce by tremendous QE uh and and all of that Capital that they create has has to go

through they can only buy assets the FED they can only create currency by buying an asset and when they buy that asset they are forced because of the uh the um the Federal Reserve Act uh to buy it through the open markets they have to buy it through their network of primary dealers which is all the big brokerage houses and so it all ends up in the markets and so the the QE the printing uh caused that big bounce there in 2009 and it that would have been if it was free market it would have been a lot

deeper but we would be on stable footing today instead of a crumbling Foundation uh Ben banki I believe uh he made these decisions very very fast and he's a super smart person and when a super smart person uh makes a mistake it is a doozy and I believe that the next big crisis is going to be called I'm calling it The banki bust he set it up there is no way for any Powell or Yellen or anybody running things to do anything but react to the problems that he created and so um the printing that we

will have to have the next time around because you know now instead of starting with $0.8 trillion dollar of Base currency we're starting with three point something it was a high of four point something uh and so they have to create the same like percentage increase I wrote about this in my uh update to my first book which was back in 2015 and so there is a big um uh a big print coming and uh the and it's all going to be in reaction to What Ben banki did the big print I just yesterday excellent

excellent that's exactly what this is about I can't wait to read it so wow okay yeah a big print I think it's coming no matter what um all right let's let's keep rolling here so thinking thinking in terms of the capital rotation basically between risk assets and Safe Haven assets the Dow gold is like the ultimate Way of uh summarizing the two explaining what happens right this is it this is the demonstration of uh you know people uh going into risk assets when the um you know this looks this must be

monthly data because uh on a daily 1929 was actually 18 uh the uh uh 1966 was 28 and then 45 was the year 2000 so this may even this may even be annual data to be honest that's yeah probably is right yeah but we're at around six oh and then in 1980 that should be a spiky bottom at one sorry and um today we're at 16 and I am expecting one again or even less meaning that uh the that gold will outperform Stocks by a factor of 16 times yeah exactly so gold help performs Stocks by a factor of 16 and then silver

performs Gold by a factor of nine that's like that's so much math I can't even do it it's like 150 x outperformance between silver and stocks I mean that is that is wild yeah but uh okay let's move on so that's the rotation that they're talking about okay exactly and so there is something else that's uh that's uh troubling in the markets here yesterday I posted a tweet that said we will find out in the next one to four weeks if the lbma is out of gold this chart is

another indicator that it might be true yeah so let's uh zoom in here um this these are the Steep borrowing costs for gold right which indicates tightness in the market so so this is uh the bullan banks borrowing from Central Bank so it's gold that goes out of the Central Bank vaults and I had an article in my first video uh where uh they said that Drexel Burnham was a brokerage house that went out went under uh back in I think 1990s uh and uh they had a bunch of gold that was leased from the bank of England

that was lost it never you know never got returned and they it said that this is the um dirty secret of Central Bank vul vulnerability that they lease gold and we have an unstable system so they can lose their uh their gold reserves um with all of this gold Leasing and rehypothecation that goes on but this is insane look at the size of that Spike up to over 5% yeah very quickly too I mean very just like a couple months so right at the end of December you know a lot of the stuff that I was showing we didn't

even have January's numbers yet the amount of gold imported to the comx uh that float into the United States uh was just huge in December and we don't have January's data this whole rise it was there's there's that blip in December but on January 1 we went through an interactive chart on this and it was actually negative on January 1 it was below zero and and then it up above 5% this is just mindboggling how quickly that happened yeah super fast and we're not necessarily done yet like who knows

what's going to happen over the next few days or the next month I mean it could go could go way higher right so yeah something's uh not adding up here yeah um here's an article from Bloomberg gold dealers sell Bank of England bullion at a discount in tariff turmoil so there are weeks long cues to withdraw bullion from the bank of England and the size of the Divergence is extremely unusual amid a rush to ship gold to the United States so there's one thing from this article I wanted to highlight this is the same

chart we were just looking at a second ago but it is interactive as you mentioned so um there's the negative bit in January and we are up over 5% uh on February 4th it came down just a smidgen after that this paragraph here I know you wanted to read that that's what I noticed is that the typical 400 ounce bars that are traded in London can't be shipped directly into New York to deliver onto the comx exchange instead Traders must rine the bars into 100 ounce or kilo bars in places like

Switzerland well I covered this in the gold Flows In detail in the previous video but what what really sticks out to me here is those 400 ounce bars are the old Central Banking bars from the old gold standards so these 400 ounce bars in London are from when London was the Hub of the uh gold standard uh you know before World War I and then it shared uh being the Hub of the gold standard with the United States in the inter War standard and London and England pulled out I believe it was 1932 they pulled

out of the gold standard and so um uh what we're talking about here is the Central Bank dipping into these ancient gold bars so they can be melted down re-refined and so they're loaning this stuff out that is you know these are the types of bars that were in Fort Knox when there was the gold nationalization in 1933 and so on they are uh a a remnant of uh International gold standards where either B either uh the Federal Reserve in New York or the bank of England uh were the Hub and there was

pallets of gold in the basement and you know they're constantly uh doing settlement between countries so this is not your normal uh public gold that's traded on exchanges they're dipping into uh something that is strictly Central Bank gold it's being loaned out it's going to Switzerland it comes back as 100 ounce bars and kilo bars that that can be delivered into a Futures Contract and so this just shows the death eress of what's going on if they've actually if they're out of all of like the

normally traded consumer gold and they've got a dip into this ancient Central Bank gold uh and the that one article that I covered uh where when Drexel Burnham went under uh the Central Bank lost that gold it wasn't paid back uh we're getting into situations like that where that can happen again now you know the uh thing that I mentioned earlier what's becoming tight though is only the 100 ounce bars and the kilo bars uh so far I do believe that in just a couple of months weeks months uh that

uh you'll see tightness in uh the the more consumer oriented uh coins and bars the small bars and coins so yeah we'll keep an eye out definitely uh definitely possible and by the way it's not just gold it's also silver wow the borrowing fee on SLV ETF has just gone vertical up 10x since this morning 10x wow wow and look at that green bar at the end unbelievable it dwarfs the entire chart you can't even see what was happening before that because the move today was so humongous right so we want

to point out to everybody that we're not tracking the gray bars here it's those green and red bars that are at the bottom of the graph uh that is the difference between what just happened and what's been happening in the past the explosion and so yeah so uh there is something going on right now and we don't know exactly what but people are getting prepared that's for sure absolutely it's gold and it's the big boys this is what bugs me you know I said in that video that I I

hate it when I'm selling people precious metals near a top but the public tends to chase price I really love it when I can get somebody in at a low price like you know during the covid crash the gold silver ratio went up to 120 to1 and I was able to buy when it was at like uh uh 110 to one which put me in at around 12 or $13 and look at where it is now 33 so the gains in such a short period of time have been phenomenal and I I discussed it in my uh insiders report and uh I just hope the public is waking up because it looks

like there's going to be a huge move coming up and I I you know I used to joke I'd say you look like a $5,000 an ounce guy and they'd say what you're gonna wait until gold is $5,000 an ounce before you buy and there are people like that you know they're in the stock market they're just stuck with it and they're going to lose 50% and then they're going to buy $5,000 gold in that rotation that Capital rotation that you're were talking about so yeah you know there's a there's a saying in

the in the Bitcoin community that I think applies to gold and silver it's uh everyone buys Bitcoin at the price they deserve and everyone buys gold at the price they deserve everyone buys silver at the price they deserve that's it you know so yeah anyways all right let's keep moving here uh CME gold deliveries this is a fast fasinating chart here um yeah do you want to talk about this one Mike well yeah Nick lared at gold charts or us sent these out in an email and I saw this and I went oh my God because

the thing that is amazing is that those other two big spikes during the covid Panic right there those are the highest spikes on record but that's for entire months and this recent spike is for the first five days of this month just five days days and we're already higher than this the second highest spike in history of gold deliveries and this is the problem this is the reason for the Emergency this is the reason people are are that the uh Bank of England is selling those 400 b or loaning out those

400 ounce bars at a discount to spot because people are paying 50 bucks to send it to uh to Switzerland and get them refined into and I would imagine Switzerland is way backed up at all their refineries right now to melt down these 400 ounce bars refine them into 100 ounce bars and kilo bars so that the the comx can continue their deliveries uh without a force majure without uh you know running out and saying cash settlement only which would cause uh gold to just like practi I I would feel that it would almost instantly double in

price there would be a scramble around the world for gold if that happened it's probably not going to happen they patched it up last time uh they kept somehow kept the music playing well everybody is dancing around thinking that uh they can you know in the musical chairs that they've got a seat when there's actually only one seat for every 10 20 50 100 people dancing and uh so this exposes all of the vulnerabilities when this stuff happens but five days that is an amazing Spike yeah exactly and I just want to add this

table here like you can see we're up over 50,000 contracts just just five days into February so we still have the entire month of February and this Spike will climb higher and higher and higher as more people take delivery of their gold so we certainly gonna break a record for anybody that wants to do the math it's 50,000 contracts a contract is 100 ounces of gold times $2,800 an ounce so you can figure out how many billions we're talking about in just five days yeah that's uh that's five million

ounces of gold we could round it off to 3,000 that's 15 billion 15 billion dollars worth of gold in five days five days yeah right wow it's crazy yeah staggering so we'll see what happens you know throughout the rest of February um okay so yeah let's let's compare the current bull market to that of the 1970s um you know we've presented this chart before you can see how crazy similar they are however the current bull market is taking about twice as long to play out as the decade of the

1970s however it is larger in size so instead of a roughly 25x it's a 36x if it if it finishes this pattern so yeah what anything you want to say here Mike well when we made this chart I asked you to we're basically doing what is called something similar to Elliot wave analysis where you've got up cycles that are in one one two and three waves sometimes five waves up uh and what we did was we took the lowest price of gold after its 1980 High to today what was the lowest price it was

$253 in 1989 so we the blue line is the 70s bull market the entire thing from the lowest price to the high of 873 in January of 1980 and then we took uh the current B Market starting at uh in 1999 uh to today uh and uh that first wave up where it they both hit a high I just had you line up the lows and the highs so we had to take uh the current bull market and squeeze it and then squeeze it this way to get those to line up just to see in the correlation we're going oh my go we could not believe the

correlation between these two it was just astounding and then uh the last time we reviewed this you pointed out that something happened right there yeah what happened where it just started going sideways and it didn't match up anymore it didn't correlate to the it was a perfect correlation and then something diverged so what was it that you said co co the co crash everything sold off okay and what happened during Co we created massive quantities of currency while this went sideways which

means this sideways move it's just storing energy so the explosion that comes later because it's both it's storing energy now in both uh uh magnitude of the move and time because we were past the time limit when this thing should have peaked and it was predicting $9,000 an ounce then so I actually think that there's there's a possibility that that might be a low estimate I don't know possible silly anybody talking about $99,000 gold is considered a lunatic but you know if you went back

to the beginning of this century when gold was 250 and said that gold was going to be 2500 it was going to go up 10-fold you would have been called a lunatic then so uh you know because it had been going down every everybody was saying I was saying you got to look at gold and everybody goes gold it's been going down for 20 years and I'd say exactly it's the biggest sale ever right right yeah yep well yeah I agree with you uh so let's let's see I mean I do think 9,000 could end up being a low estimate

um and just out of curiosity I added something to this chart that I haven't had on here before I basically said okay where are we in comparison to the 1970s bull Ron and basically we're at the time when gold was 3 $319 an ounce and it only had this of course it didn't know nobody knew ahead of time that it was going to do this but what it ended up doing was basically going up like a rocket up to 873 as you mentioned and that was a multiple of 2.7x in 144 days wow that's less than

five months so that's absolutely massive unbelievable and so you might wonder okay does that mean that gold is poised to do 2.7x and 100 44 days starting today like is that what we're going to see with the continuation of the red line and not exactly and the reason it's not exactly the same is because of what you mentioned a minute ago which is that this bull market is taking a lot longer to play out and it's also um actually Rising a lot more than it did in the 70s so the appropriate analogy is actually

to multiply that time by about two and a half 2.47 I think and to multiply the magnitude by the difference in the uh the logarithmic scales here which is just a 20% increase so the the chart on the left here is base five the chart on the right is base six for anyone who's interested in the logarithms there so a 20% increase is warranted so what that would look like is a gain of 3.3x in just about one year 355 days um and if you want to do the math on that like where does that where does that put us in terms of dollars per

ounce well 3.3 times times uh today's price 2893 just multiply that and that's over 9,000 tell you that much may like 9400 maybe okay well yeah except for that extra stored energy and all the currency printing yeah I don't know maybe I'm uh but I see um when it when it went sideways during covid well beri created $4.2 trillion of base currency and then that all went through the banki and Powell basically since uh then have created all of that um I well not banki this is just pal but it ended up at 4.2

trillion of Base currency uh and that went into the stock markets it created the bubbles then we did the mailed the checks to people and we've had huge inflation and so gold is just uh catching up here the expansion of the currency supply has been absolutely enormous since the beginning you know the red line starts in 1999 and so the expansion of the currency Supply during the in fact let me see I'm going to just read the there's a chapter that I believe is extremely important if anybody wants to know uh how high you

know they if they want to know the fundamentals under this bull market compared to the bull market of the 70s uh since January of 1980 when gold uh peaked there is now 18 times more people around the world that can legally buy and afford precious metals there's 55 times more currency on the planet there's 56 times more millionaires and 200 times more billionaires but basically those first two things 18 times more people that can participate and 55 times more currency that's all you have to know to realize that perhaps

9,000 is way low yep so I totally agree and I and this this timeline here messes with my head more than anything else like could this re could this bull market really finish in one year I it doesn't feel like it to me I feel like the bull market is going to go on a few years um and it all depends on what kind of Crisis uh you know what's going on right now could end up becoming a crisis that uh propels uh gold vertical like that a if if we actually go into some sort of currency crisis or something and then

when you look at what they're doing they are doing a lot of good things uh in in this you know they're doing some real house cleaning in the government Elon Musk and and uh Trump uh but uh Trump doesn't really know economics that well and if they do more uh uh cost cutting then they unleash business then they could cause a serious recession and China is set up for we are set up right now for a global recession and these tariffs if we get into trade Wars and tariffs that will cause it that's that's

one of the things that caused the um the what should have Milton Freedman said that the uh the Great Depression should have just been a deep but short-lived re Cession and it was the government and these policies and the Federal Reserve that turned it into the great great depression and so uh we're set up for that again and they did all these protectionist policies back in the 30s and uh that's what caused the Great Depression part of it and um so um if if a a crisis happens that's big enough you

know I talked about a slingshot move from the cup and handle and the inverse Head and Shoulders here and we got got that already the slingshot move but this is gonna this could end up being like a cannon yes yes right I can't wait to see what happens so a lot of people ask uh okay you convinced me I'm G to buy gold but how much gold should I buy and you know obviously a lot of uh a lot of advice out there is oh 2% 5% okay I think this I think this chart kind of illustrates why those percentages don't make a lot of sense

they're extremely low and uh what I want to show everyone is is this basically what we're looking at here is the percent return you would get vertically okay so however High you up how however High you are on this chart is the percent return you'd expect so higher is better and going across the bottom here is risk which we're measuring by volatility so like the standard deviation of the returns in a portfolio and so the volatility uh you know is the choppiness of the price and the

magnitudes of the draw Downs uh and so um uh this is interesting this is from CPM group and uh CPM uh they tend to be very conservative their numbers are accurate and this goes all the way back to 1968 to 2020 so they're taking a 6040 pfolio of stocks and t- bills which is the standard recommendation and then they're keeping uh they're they're adding gold and keeping the remainder of it 6040 stocks and T bills and what's interesting is um 20 to 30% is incredibly low risk but incredibly High

return if you want to take a little bit more risk and be able to ride out the roller coaster of the bumps and dips then uh this is showing that the higher you go with gold the better your return has been from 1968 to today I mean you know you I'm just amazed that uh you know the Wall Street will still be saying stuff like oh you want to be careful with gold you only want like five maybe 10% in your portfolio you know this is incorporating the bare Market from 1980 to 1999 if you take if you took this and

you only looked at uh the bull market that started in 19 uh 99 to today uh this would be a the percent Returns on the side scale here would be a lot higher than what you're seeing in this graph right now because this also incorporates that giant bare Market that was 20 years long yes and a huge takeaway from a chart like this I know a lot of people watching this aren't they're not chart people but a big takeaway here is that any two points that are directly on top of each other the higher one is strictly

better than the lower one yes so so any two points that are directly on top of each other that means they both have the same risk so your portfolio would have the exact same risk for any two points that are on top of each other so if you know somebody who has 0% gold in their portfolio they could get an extra 1% return on average every year by going up to 35% gold which seems like a big jump but it wouldn't increase risk over the long term right it's the same risk then as the 60 40% uh you know stocks and t- bills

portfolio with an extra percent return every year compounded exactly exactly compounded right and similarly if you have 5% gold you could go up to roughly 30% gold with the exact same risk but get almost another full percent return maybe three quars of a percent return every year compounded yeah this is the chart that uh where when I hear somebody say oh just five or 10% gold that drives me nuts uh so uh yeah the tinfoil hat uh um you know end of world uh investment is actually the investment of a lifetime

and then you know if you look at where silver is right now and then the number of paper ounces that have been sold compared to the actual physical that exists I mean right now is the setup for precious metals it is this is what I've been waiting for for a long time I mean I've done spectacular because I started buying at $315 an ounce gold so I've done very very well over the years uh but The Best Is Yet To Come I agree get your hands on gold and silver keep calm but all the gold and

silver is gone oh no yep yeah where do I go the point of this video so thanks for sharing all of this Allan and thank uh the audience here for watching and we'll see you next time thanks everyone byebye