[Music] I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and here today with me is Will Ryan, CEO of Granite Shares. Thank you so much for being here. Great to have you. >> Thank you, Charlotte. Good to be back on your show again. Thank you. >> Really good to be catching up with you and of course it's such a good time to be talking because it's an exciting week for gold. We've seen the price really on the move even getting past 3,700 per ounce. although it's it's taking a


little bit of a breather at the moment. I wanted to start by checking in with you and ask what you see as the driver behind this latest move in gold. >> Yeah, I think that um in some respects the drivers haven't changed um over the last sort of couple of years at least, you know, since gold has rallied to these new all-time highs. um in some respects is maybe just a reinforcement of where we are in the world that in my opinion what's happening is that gold has become the de facto alternative to the US dollar. Now


you can sort of interpret it interpret that in a number of different ways but if you look at sort of official reserve holdings gold's now surpassed the euro um as the sort of official number two but I think just more psychologically you know it's important because the trend behind gold has again as much to do as gold safe haven sort of appeal as it is the fact that it is not a paper currency. in the traditional form like the euro and it's something that is has no credit or counterparty risk and the value of


that asset I think is increasingly being um you know appreciated by investors in a world where geopolitical concerns run high. You know government and private debts you know keep escalating to historic proportions. currencies, paper currencies are being debased and we are in a situation where official inflation numbers still remain at elevated levels at least against official central bank targets. >> Right. I think that people are often looking for okay what's that main driver right now? But you're right, it is a


continuation of these trends we've been seeing for such a long time and picking up what you've been saying there about the dollar. Can you talk a little bit about its performance right now this year and what you see moving forward for the the dollar? >> Yeah, I mean the the again part part of the reason why you know gold prices has gone up. Gold historically has a negative correlation to the dollar. In other words, if the dollar goes down, gold prices go up. And that's been the


story of this year um that the dollar has been strong for for quite some time. But you know certainly this year is weakened significantly uh and that has benefited gold. I might also add that albeit not um you know in the same direct same comparison as gold has benefited other non-percurrency assets such as Bitcoin. >> That's true. Bitcoin has certainly been on the move as well. And just picking up a little bit on current events, we had the long- aaited Fed meeting this week and we got the much anticipated, I think


25 basis point rate cut. I'm wondering if you can comment on that. I feel like when we get these Fed meetings, there's always such a focus on, okay, what can we read between the lines here in terms of the the commentary from the Fed and from Powell. So, anything you would talk about on that note? >> It's really tough. I I think that um with all the sort of political posturing around it, my sense was that although some people were thinking I think that um logically at least we could get a


rate cut of 50 basis points, perhaps even more. But um I I I didn't think that was going to happen. I think the the Fed has become so politically charged that um the one thing that I think they want to do is sort of preserve their own sovereignty and you know certainly not give the illusion that they've made a mistake or get the impression that they've made a mistake. I think, you know, anything more than sort of what the market expects, quote unquote, could potentially be seen as like a sign that there was a mistake or


behind the curve or that the administration was correct. And I think, you know, that's just something that again in this sort of politically charged environment, they want to avoid at all costs. So, it was no surprises from my perspective. Um and indeed again if you look back to a year ago when we had the first 50 basis point cut you know inflation was higher that you know the the economic sort of scenario or environment for doing that was worse than it is now. Um but that being said uh it was within expectations.


I think that seems to be kind of the broad consensus here. And you're right, it is really politically charged with everything that's going on. And there is always that question of timing on the Fed and all the criticism it always seems to get about being too slow. So in your view, was this was this right time to cut, especially given what you're talking about in terms of where we're at with inflation in the US right now? Yeah, I think um you know the people always argument about the exact timing


and I think equally you can make a good case that that if we'd had the rate cut earlier in the year then it would have benefited markets or certainly no harm would have been done. I think the danger in this case is cutting too much. I don't think the 25 basis points you know here or there makes any difference frankly. um it's more the overshoot on the downside um just as much as an overshoot on the upside, you know, was at real risk of causing, you know, significant economic damage.


>> And in terms of the economy, I was going to ask you where you think we're at with that right now. I think even just since yesterday, I've started to see more headlines rearing up about the stagflation idea. Where are you seeing it right now? >> I think things are still fine for now. Um you know if you look at the numbers let's start with the market you know markets at all-time highs the stock market of course corporate earnings very very strong um kind of across the board


but particularly the large tech companies which at the end of the day it's the fundamentals the earnings the earnings expectations that drive markets and so that has been the main story this year I think the backdrop though is that you know inflation numbers are still a little bit relative uh elevated versus where the Fed wants them to be, but they're not elevated enough to cause any problems with markets or with earnings expectations, etc. at the moment. So, inflation seems to be in check or at


least within a tolerance that the market accepts. You know, interest rates, as we've just talked about, are now on their way down again. Looks like we could have another couple of cuts, you know, before the end of the year. and employment. While the numbers are definitely softening and there's some strong evidence and big revisions in terms of unemployment numbers, um the market is still or the the numbers are still indicating economy that's you know fairly fully employed. Um so all of that


makes it difficult to sort of sound the alarm bells right now. Um, but like everything, you know, there's, you know, always always some sort of, you know, room for for quiet caution. >> So, we're all right for now, but we'll keep an eye on what's happening there. And another point I wanted to bring up is the tariff situation because when we last spoke, it was all the way back in April, and it was still so very much in flux, which arguably still many points of tariffs are still in flux. But when


you're looking at it, how how important is that for the US economy at the moment? And if we tie back to gold, is that important for gold currently? >> Well, it's very important. I think what's happened and the reason why I haven't mentioned tariffs so far is that the signal, in other words, the noise from tariffs has definitely decreased over time. Now, that's not to say that it couldn't flare up again, but I think the the trend that we've seen is clearly from both sides, whether it's the


administration here in the United States or any partner they're trying to negotiate with. You know, nobody wants a trade war. It's in nobody's interest for that to happen. So while there may be some volatility around negotiations um we've seen obviously things get to a level where there's if not equilibrium there's at least some kind of certainty around that and the market ultimately rewards certainty. So I think the the trade war or the tariff situation of course could have another flare up um


almost at any time you know just with one tweet as we all know. However, I think that if we look beyond that that the clear sort of signal from the market is that the market is now moved beyond that and is looking forward, >> right? I think that makes sense. It puts into context why why it hadn't come up yet. And again, looking at gold, I want to go back to our conversation earlier this year. You had pulled out as key key issues for gold money supply, global money supply and the fear element in the


market. So, I wanted to check back in with you on those elements as well and ask you right now, how much do you think those are acting as influencers for gold? >> Well, the money supply absolutely. I mean, this is probably the core of the argument. Some people might argue that other things are more important, but to me, it's about the global supply of paper money and that correlation with gold remains very strong. In other words, the more that governments print money, the more that debt levels


increase or valuable alternative assets that can't be debased such as gold become. And so in a way that's sort of the prophecy um that you know gold investors are are looking to. And so from that perspective, M2 is still there. I think that in terms of um the actual fear premium in the market has dissipated somewhat. Clearly we were at massively elevated levels you know back earlier this year when the trade war was kind of at its nadier but we've come down somewhat from there and like I said


the signal uh around trade tariffs just a lot less noisy a lot less significant than it was as people kind of look beyond that but there's fear in other ways I mean geopolitical situation still out there seeming no end to to the various wars that are going on in the gold, you know, and different things that could potentially flare up at any moment. However, I think the main thing that's driving gold, like I said, is this alternative to the dollar. People want an alternative to fiat money and


particularly the the dollar and also to traditional stocks and bonds. And so, gold's appeal as being a genuine alternative, an uncorrelated alternative, um, sort of grows by the month seemingly. >> It really does. And that is something that I wanted to touch on as well with with gold with all these issues going on and gold at record high prices. Are you seeing changes in the types of people who are interested in owning gold right now? I know of course Granite Shares has its own gold ETF. What trends are you


noticing? >> Yeah, that's an interesting question. Um, and I would have to say no. And I still think that, you know, despite gold at these levels, which on a historical context, it's extraordinary. And I only say that because what's unique about gold is I feel like in other points of history when gold prices reached an all-time high, this story would be front page news. It would be on every talking head's lips on CNBC, etc. and all we'd be hearing is about gold being in a bubble. This time


around, gold's climbed to historic highs, but not a single peep from anybody about gold being in a bubble. And it's not even front page news. And so I think that kind of goes to show the psychology. And therefore, from an investment perspective, there's no fever pitch around gold. It's just quietly assumed this position, you know, over time. And so therefore, I have to say that the the investors that we talk to that are buying gold, whether it's our our gold ETF bar or or other forms of


gold investing remain largely the same. And those are people that are looking for diversification. Those are people that, you know, value an alternative to paper currencies that value uh gold's place in the portfolio. But I haven't seen a flux of new investors uh into the gold market for the first time. And so from that perspective, I think the reason for that is that gold hasn't been hyped up in any way in this cycle, which in some in some cases or in some respects is surprising. >> That is very interesting and I think it


speaks to that that mindset shift that seems to be happening right now. And I wanted to ask kind of on that note, where where are you seeing gold in the cycle that it's in right now? Because it's interesting, you've got kind of that dichotomy of people who aren't realizing what's going on. And then I know within our sector where there are people who have been watching gold for years, they're looking at the price and wondering, okay, how how long can this last? How far can it go?


>> Good question. Look, I think again, surprisingly, to some degree, given how high we are, but we're back in a position where there's two big tailwinds. Every central bank in the world that wants to cut rates or can cut rates is cutting rates. So we are back to this cycle of rate cutting and currencies depreciate, paper currencies depreciating against the value of gold which is a huge strong tailwind. Couple that with the other strong tailwind which is again the global backdrop of


government debt which despite you know certain governments and certain administrations best intentions shows no sign of slowing down or decelerating and so despite you know Doge or or other efforts the debt's only going in one direction that's up. So I think until somebody in terms of whether it's the US government or just governments more broadly gets serious about that, you know, I think the the trend continues. So whether we see $4,000 goal this year, that's probably uh a bit too optimistic


given where we are in the year, but I think it's possible certainly the next 12 months. >> Yeah, those those $4,000 level type of forecasts are definitely feeling more and more attainable as time goes on. And I know I need to let you go quite soon, but before I do, I want to ask about where you would put silver in terms of everything that's going on with gold because we've also seen silver finally start to to move this year. So, what do you see going on there? I I think this is a classic sort of undervalued


uh trade or a value trade which is starting to to come good or for many investors that have been in silver, you know, a lot lower than the price today. We'll be we'll be saying that it already has come good potentially. But um look, it just took took way too long um to catch up to where gold prices were. You you cannot have a world where gold's just streaking on to new all-time high after new all-time high and silver stays flat, especially in a world where, you know, economic growth is there or at


least the the global economy is growing as opposed to contracting. So, I think it was just a matter of time before silver prices started to run. It's just now a question of how high will silver go um you know versus the all-time high that we saw just a few years ago. >> Any any thoughts from you on how high it could go? >> I mean I think there's no um there's no real sort of in my mind logic to saying that it can't eclipse the the previous all-time high in a market where gold is,


you know, at 3,700 plus. Um but we'll have to see. I think that's a that's fair. Who could know where silver will will go in the end? All right. Well, this has been a nice recap of what's happening with gold, a little bit about silver. Any final thoughts that you would leave investors with right now? It's certainly a very interesting time. >> Yeah, I think there's never been a better time for people to look at, you know, the value of having something that is alternative to traditional assets.


And, you know, there's still a lot of uncertainty out there. While I think that things are good for now, um, and again there's no sort of dark thunderclouds on the immediate horizon that you again there's value in having something that is not stocks, not bonds, not paper currency in your portfolio. And I think again while I'm not sort of uh, you know, directly advocating for this, you can see similar trends in the Bitcoin market as well. And that part of what's been fueling that is this similar


desire to own something which is seemingly um you know independent from the system. >> Well, we will wrap it up there for now, but hope to have you back again soon. Really good to be speaking with you for today. >> Likewise. Great to talk to you as always, Charlotte. Thank you. >> Of course. And once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and this is Will Rind of Granite Shares. Thank you for watching. If you like this video, make sure you hit the like button and subscribe to our channel. We'd also


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