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 We're accumulating silver and uh I'm expecting at at minimum a uh 20 to one ratio of silvery to gold, but probably 10, which means you can still outperform uh gold by about a factor of 7 times. That is huge, especially if gold doubles, triples, quadruples times seven. Hi, it's Mike and Allen again with the Gold Silver Show. And Allan has a surprise presentation for me. We're going to analyze some stuff. Now, I I read the post earlier, but I have not discussed this with Allen. I have no

idea how or what he's going to present. Well, I I have an idea of what, but I don't have an idea of what his points are. So, Allan, take it away. >> Yeah, thanks, Mike. So, I saw something recently on Twitter, someone claiming that there's the most important monetary shift of the 21st century. the biggest thing since 1971. And I read the thread and there's a lot of truth to it, but it's not 100% truthful and it is a little bit of narrative, a little bit of hyperbole. So, I thought it would be really helpful

for our viewers if we go through it and we analyze fact from fiction. So, >> okay. >> So, we start here with this thread. We just discovered the most important monetary shift of the 21st century and nobody is talking about it. And it's all about silver actually. Um, usurping the role of gold. Uh, so here here it is. We just discovered the most important thing. What I'm about to lay out is not speculation. Oh, by the way, this is from macro bysil. Macrobsil. So this is his thread. Credit credit to him.

>> What I'm about to lay out is not speculation. It is a fully traceable sequence of geopolitical, financial, and market events that reveals a new global reserve structure being built outside the US dollar. So this is pretty huge. After western sanctions in 2022, India Russell India Russia oil trade exploded reaching record levels 50 to60 billion annually. But there was a huge problem. India tried paying Russia in Indian rupees and Russia rejected it because Indian rupees are not convertible

internationally and Russia called rupees pointless outside India. That was in May 2023. So before I keep going, Mike, is there anything you want to weigh in on here? >> Well, that's true with almost every fiat currency with the exception of the big exception of the dollar. Then second place would be the euro and then after that the Chinese yuan. Uh but most current most fiat national fiat currencies are sort of worthless once they leave their home country. Uh and it just shows you how stupid this whole

system is. Fiat currencies are idiotic. >> They are idiotic. What if we what if we all just used a currency backed by gold the same across the board? We wouldn't have any FX traders. Oh, we we should just be using glo gold globally in you know grams, nanogs and so on. Uh that's how payment should be made or uh you know bi metallic except you can't peg anything. It's got to just float which means you go to the grocery store and there would be a price in grams of gold or a price in grams and nanograms of

silver. >> Yeah. So it it would be a little more complex with a floating biome metallic, but something that governments can't print at a whim that they can't put their own name on and control the population by uh limiting your uh travel with your wealth. The wealth belongs to you, not to them. But yet you fly into a different country. You got to fill out that landing card. Are you bringing anything greater than 10 $10,000 or greater of uh financial instruments? You know, it's it's insane how there's these

people that have such big egos and that they feel that they have the right to control everybody else. It's it's I just don't understand humans. Go ahead. >> Well, we're not going to figure it out today, but anyways. So, so [clears throat] far this India Russia oil um factoid here, this is true. This is verifiable. No doubt about it. So, next here um with $40 billion plus stuck in Indian banks, Russia faced a crisis. They couldn't repatriate rupees. They couldn't convert to US dollars due to

sanctions and they couldn't spend the rupees inside India. There's basically nothing they wanted. So, Russia needed a store of value escape hatch. This was the beginning of a silent monetary revolution. All right. Strong strong strong language here. India shifted to paying Russia in AED. Okay. Those are United Arab Emirates Durhams. Okay. The UAE currency. >> Mhm. >> Chinese yuan. So why AED? Because AED is liquid, freely convertible and strategically important. If we sort of

think through the different incentive systems here and the wants and the needs, China needs AED to buy Gulf oil. Okay, UAE is the new neutral clearing hub. Okay, Russia can exchange AED without touching dollar networks and this created a new triangular settlement loop. Okay, it's got the chain of flags here. It's really four countries involved, but the point is they're skipping out on the dollar. So, this is part of the ddollarization theme that we've been hearing about for years from

the BRICS nations especially. So, any any comment here, Mike? Well, you know, I started a series uh called the death of the global dollar standard back in 2009, and I was tracking all of the events, chipping it. I called it the nails in the coffin of the global dollar standard. And these are potentially huge nails, but it's not going to happen like all at once uh until it does. It's a slow whittling away at this and it will happen. But you know George Gammon points out that the dollar it's like uh

cell phones the dollar has all the apps and the other currencies don't and that's the reason the the Indian rupees were useless in Russia. Uh now this uh triangle uh works except uh it would be limited in trade to the amount of oil that China is buying. Uh they China would not want a bunch of excess rupees. So uh it it it has a cap on it. It's not like the dollar, but it's another huge nail in the coffin. >> Exactly. So I've got to ask because a fan of yours was recently asking me,

"Why did you ever stop doing the nails in the coffins visual? Is it because there were just nails every single day and it was impossible to keep up with so many of them?" >> [clears throat] >> you know, I tried uh to update that without building the whole thing new from scratch. And actually, if anybody knows Keynote or PowerPoint, uh if you put too many uh moves and images that are clicks in a frame and then you want to try to modify it or change it in any way, you remove something and it just

became a total nightmare. I stopped because it was too much work for me. I'm not when you know [clears throat] I'm dyslexic. I uh and I just don't have the patience. I've got a lot of patience when it comes to my investments and stuff. But when I'm working on something and it breaks and I got to start over again and it does that two or three times, you know, forget about it. Uh so, you know, someday I'll put it back together. There were actually um the assistant that had uh initially put that

together put too many uh minute nails in the coffin. And I don't want the little finishing nails that you do cabinetry with. [laughter] I want, you know, uh big old framing nails, 15 penny and 10 penny, big huge nails. >> I want fewer of them, but really important stuff. And uh so we'll redo it sometime or another in the future because it's getting closer and closer and it's all coming true. Everything that I was talking about since 2009, they all compound on each other. >> Yeah, exactly. And we've got some more

nails in the coffin coming up here in this thread. So here's the breakthrough discovery. From July of 2024, something shocking appeared on the charts. Silver began moving tick for tick with the INR CNY exchange rate. So Indian rupees, Chinese yuan. This correlation has never existed in history. Silver detached from comx pricing and started tracking settlement currency flows. This is a signal of sovereign accumulation, not investor speculation. So some pretty bold claims here. And this chart is very

fascinating actually. So the blue line here is the price of silver and then the red and green candles is the exchange rate between the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupees. And they, you know, after this white line, they do start to follow each other, you know, somewhat significantly. So, >> I'd say you have to move that white line a a few months there. The first area where um the they said that was the rupee, the lower line. >> Well, it's the exchange rate between the yuan and the rupee, the lower line.

>> Okay. Yeah. Yeah. That's a a little choppier than silver is. But uh yeah, it's it's a very interesting combination, but correlation is not necessarily proof of causation. Yeah, that was one of the things I was going to say. And we're in a situation right now where, okay, the price of silver is going up. Wonderful. A lot of things are going up right now. A lot of things are going up right now. So many different macro factors are going up. You could probably draw a chart that looks kind of

like this with 20 different, you know, macro indicators. But of course, that doesn't mean that some random employment indicator is causing the price of silver to go up or the price of real estate is causing the price of silver to go up or necessarily this currency pair is causing the price of silver to go up. So, it's interesting, but I agree with you, Mike. Correlation is not causation. >> Also, silver detached from ComX pricing. Uh, I don't think so. I don't think so. I think Comx is still following the

price of silver. >> That's that's the price when you look at the spot price that comes from COMX. >> Exactly. And so if >> I missed that that they they made that statement. Uh this is a very good sort of investigative reporting and trying to associate things. I think he's done a spectacular job. But that particular statement I would say is is not true yet. But it will be someday. >> Exactly. And if that breaks, if we do see a divergence there, it'll be the

only thing that everyone's talking about, it'll be it'll be huge news. >> So, all right, moving on here. Why would silver suddenly track that currency pair, rupees and yuan? Because here's the mechanism we uncovered. India buys oil and then pays Russia in AED. Russia converts those AED to yuan. China wants AED for Gulf oil and Russia uses the yuan to buy physical silver from China. So So >> buying silver, right? >> Say it again. >> Didn't Didn't Russia buy silver uh

several months ago? Yeah. >> Yes, they announced it. That that's coming up in a in a tweet coming up. They they allocated I think uh >> yeah, their central bank is buying silver. So this is is very important. However, there's one thing missing. So, um, India buys oil, uh, pays with AED. Uh, where did they get the AED? Does do does the United Arab Emirates take unlimited quantities of rupees and what do they do with the rupees? That's what I would want to know. >> That's a good question and I do not have

the answer for you, but but that's exactly, you know, economics is a closed loop, right? those those rupees have and this would be another it would isn't just China's ability to absorb uh the AED it's uh the it's the um United Arab Emirates ability to absorb uh rupes and we just you know this started with uh Russia's inability to absorb rupes and so the whole thread started with that >> and so I would think That applies elsewhere as well. >> Yes, I agree. So the last last comment

he has here, silver becomes the reserve asset storing value from India Russia trade outside the USD system. So still just asserting that silver is the uh the cornerstone, the bedrock of this trade. >> Well, I hope so. >> Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. All right. And what did India do when this began? Well, on July 23rd of 2024, India suddenly slashed silver import duty from 15% down to 6%. At the exact same time that currency pair correlation emerged. So why make silver cheaper when prices are exploding globally? Because India

wants domestic silver accumulation as a hedge. Government policy moves don't lie. If you look at the history of uh India and their tariffs and so on, the duties um [clears throat] it they they go up and down and they've changed them over the years. I don't know. It could be an absolute coincidence that that that date. Looking at that first chart, I just don't see the absolute correlation when they put that line on the chart. I see the correlation starting several months later when they

both start rising at the same time. One is going yeah one is is somewhat flat and then the other the the currency pair is uh jogging up and down like that. Second time that it falls I don't see silver falling that much or a sustained fall. It does one pullback in there, right? And so I don't see the super high correlation, but if you go down to the that bottom of the currency pair, the final bottom, there's a very high correlation after that, you can you can anybody should be able to see that.

>> All right, so that's where we were. Oh, last thing I'll say about the uh India's policy here slashing import duty. If you look at the government, the Indian government's rationale for this policy, they say they're trying to reduce smuggling and boost the amount of legal imports. So, you never know if that's the full story or if it is trying to um >> if the government says it, it's never the full story. [laughter] >> Right. >> Yeah. Never never believe something

until it's been officially denied. Right. Right. >> Exactly. >> Yeah. So, all right. Then came the final confirmation. In late September 2024, Russia released its 2025 to 2027 federal budget. And this is exactly what you were talking about, Mike. For the first time in Russian history, the government officially allocated funds for purchasing critical minerals where silver will be there by default. So silver is now a sovereign reserve asset. So yeah, about about $500 million annually for for three years this year

and the the next two years. So half a billion dollars. Yeah, that could probably get you >> 10 million or so. >> People there's people that can afford that. you know half a billion dollars is not that much for a central bank or for a government to be buying. So yeah. >> Yeah. Exactly. And that's that's you know if you if you just for round numbers if you say silver is you know 53ish dollars per ounce. Russia could accumulate 10 million ounces of silver per year but there's roughly a billion

ounces of silver available each year. So that's like 1% of the supply. not not the biggest percentage. Um, right. >> So, it'll it'll maybe move the price a little of course, but not not a staggering amount. >> So, okay, number nine, putting it all together, this is what it looks like. So, the commodity trade is the India Russia oil boom currency breakdown. Russia rejects the rupee. The new settlement is shifting to AED CNY. Uh, the asset conversion, Russia buys silver using Chinese yuan. market signal the

currency pair and silver is correlated but again correlation is not causation policy alignment India cuts that silver duty and sovereign confirmation Russia officially buys silver so the claim here is that this is a new global monetary system being built right now >> it's a little dramatic >> I see one problem here >> um if it's the government deal dealing in silver the tariffs wouldn't apply uh this is for uh the public in India the the the tariffs and so cutting them

would have absolutely no effect on this uh triangle of payment system that would be duty-free or tariff-free anyway uh uh so cutting them encourages the uh Indian public to buy more silver which is great but uh I just don't see how that policy shift affects this um this theory, this proposal. Okay. >> Yeah. The spin they the spin they put on it is that India wants domestic silver as a hedge. So maybe we could read into that as if India as a government wants more silver, there will be silver

already in its own borders and it can confiscate it or something like that. So they're not saying that in this tweet, but if >> maybe maybe we could read into it that Yeah, but it's like saying if the Federal Reserve wants gold, they'll encourage uh American citizens to buy gold instead of them creating the currency and buying gold because when they buy an asset, the problem is the Federal Reserve Act limits them to assets that are guaranteed as to the principle and the interest. They've got

to be an interestbearing asset that is federally guaranteed, meaning it comes out of your taxes. and then they can type brand new currency into existence and buy it with that counterfeit currency. And the counterfeit currency is then in circulation. So that's where all of our base currency, the bank reserves and the cash in your wallet come from is the Federal Reserve counterfeiting currency into existence. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Exactly. >> All right. We're almost done with this

thread here. The global financial system is undergoing a silent reset. old paradigms US dollar oil, gold reserve metal. Okay. And the new architecture is that the AED CNY will be used for settlement and silver will be the reserve asset or collateral. So silver just crossed from commodity to monetary reserve foundation. The world hasn't realized it yet. Wow. Old paradigm, new paradigm. What do you think, Mike? Uh well I think that [clears throat] the very fact that uh there there were two sen

was it the UAE that it was also buying they they bought uh SLV shares right or was it >> it was Saudi Arabia? >> Saudi Arabia. Oh okay. So uh you know no correlation there but the fact that uh central banks are starting to accumulate silver that it has started um there's that silver is going to be added to gold as a reserve asset a collateral and so uh some of this is absolutely true. >> Yeah. Yeah. I agree definitely. So a lot of times we talk about silver as either an industrial metal or a monetary metal

and its role changes over time. It seems now like it is a a strategic metal which is both at the same time. It's it's both of those things simultaneously. Um it's just like the language you know critical mineral or strategic mineral. Um right you know that that type of thing. So silver is absolutely rising in prominence. No question. But the way this tweet kind of phrases it is the old paradigm is that gold was reserves. In the new paradigm, silver is reserves. Almost like gold is not going to be used

anymore by central banks. So that I don't agree with that at all. I think gold is going to maintain its role. It's just the role of silver is elevating. So >> yes, it's sort of becoming a biometallic standard in central banks now. But um [clears throat] it you know the US used to have the world's largest silver stockpile, the strategic silver reserve and then they got rid of it and uh and most governments got rid of it after you know we went on the international gold standard. silver started to become

demonetized, was relegated to coinage and uh some small promisary notes, silver certificates, and then uh totally abandoned and then they liquidated the strategic stockpile that was for war and everything else. And now they're realizing, oh, we made a mistake. And so they've got to accumulate again because you cannot conduct warfare. you cannot uh you know we're in a a technology race right now uh with uh China and you cannot conduct a technology race without silver. Uh there's just so many things

that that uh where silver is absolutely required and gold is not. That's that would be like uh a secondary option to silver with the conductivity and everything and then uh all of the industry that relies on silver. Practically everything has some silver in it. So yeah, >> exactly. So just wrapping it up here what what uh Sunil says here. This is why silver is exploding. Not because of retail hype, not because of solar panels, not because of inflation. silver is being monetized by the state level

players outside the dollar system. Russia, China, and India just changed the future of money. So, I don't know. I I'm sort of a little skeptical of of his downplaying of these other um factors here, Mike. Um maybe okay, maybe it's not retail hype. Maybe we agree with that. But solar panels here is a proxy for industry and >> it's yeah it's all of these things together along with what he is proposing because those things that he just named here did not stop they were there before

uh silver is you [clears throat] know gold has been rising for a while people are concerned about the economy a lot of this is uh investors so silver is starting to act once again like money. Uh people are protecting themselves with it and they are making gains with it. Uh and uh the solar panels as a proxy for industry. Yeah. Batteries, you know, all you know, I've been driving electric cars now since my first uh Tesla was a 2010 Roadster. My second was a 2011 Roadster. Then I had the 599th Model S

off the line in 2012. And so, and I know electric cars are superior. And I used to give people rides in 2012 and 2013 and saying, you just know in 20 years that 80% of the cars being made are going to be electric. And the people that sort of pulled out of the electric race, the companies, they're going to end up dying. Uh they they absolutely are I'm going to get a lot of flak in the comments from this, but they absolutely are superior. There's just uh absolutely no comparison. And uh uh when I drive an

internal combustion vehicle, it feels broken. But the demand that this places on silver is incredible. A worldwide shift to uh our uh transportation infrastructure being made up of mostly electric vehicles. This is absolutely enormous and we do not mine enough silver. And so the supply fundamental supply demand imbalance is one of the big drivers here. >> Oh, >> that's actually one of the things I wanted to bring up. So, so even if even if we aren't so sure about the narrative

or the storytelling in that long thread we just went through, these numbers don't lie. We know there's a structural deficit that's been going on for 5 years. We could even call it a seven-year deficit if we include the the amount of silver that's moved into exchange traded products. So, it's exactly like what you're saying, Mike. Yeah. Yeah. It's this uh fundamental supply demand imbalance has to drive the silver price because this has to be corrected especially with even greater

and greater silver consumption in the future. And what we saw is um in 2011 silver hit 48 bucks and uh there there was a structural deficit back then and it persisted for like the next five years and then went positive. Uh it takes about for the mines that already exist that have been high-graded and closed. uh new prices make the uh less uh um minable ore the m the ore that has a lower percentage of silver in it and doesn't pay to mine. Sometimes miners will do what's called high-grading. You've got a core deposit

and you've and there's less and less silver in the ore as you go away from the core. And uh they'll do what is economically viable to survive. And that means at low prices you only mine the highest purity stuff, but you're leaving behind a lot of silver. It's just more costly to uh to refine than it then you can't make a profit on it. And so they leave that behind. But then silver explodes and now it's profitable to go back and get it. Those are the mines that can start adding to supply in just

a few years. They have to take a mothball mine and get it back up and running, but it's already been through the permitting process and the environmental protection agency and all of that stuff. And so, but that those aren't that many. All of the new prospecting that's going on and finding a claim and turning it into a mine, you're talking 5 to 10 years is like a a minimum. And so, I'm not expecting to see this to go into surplus until at least 2030. But by then the demand is

going to be growing so quickly especially with the uh server centers and the demand on for AI uh this is going to be growing very quickly s silver is probably going to remain in a fundamental deficit. So above ground stock with the amount of silver available for industry to buy and investors is going to keep on shrinking and shrinking and shrinking uh into the early 2030s most likely. Uh and uh that means the only thing that can set that in balance is price. And so the price has to go up. It's just a fundamental

law of economics. And so silver everything has to obey these laws eventually. They can break the law for a little while, but they always get caught. >> Yeah, exactly. And speaking of fabrication demand, this is a chart of silver fabrication demand going back to 1977. >> It's surprisingly volatile actually in recent years. I was expecting it to go up more solidly and consistently. Um, but it's broken into photography which is going down and other categories which I think are all going up, jewelry and

silverware, electronics and batteries, solar panels and other so you know AI and all that stuff I guess lumped into this upper category. So I don't know does this surprise >> AI is going to be exploding uh or is that down in electronics? Um either way, what we see is if you look back at uh the year 2000, uh all the bars except the green bars, well the dark blue bars are also about the same size. Uh but or or even smaller today, but solar panels, look at the rate of growth there. uh the

great rate of growth of electronics and batteries has been solar slower but that's going to explode and we are done with photography shrinking year after year. when digital photography came out, it uh really wiped out. But the thing that um they uh don't say in this graph, that green line, um [clears throat] even though there's uh less uh silver being purchased from the market, there is also less supply because all of that photography, this is for the negatives. the uh film stock has

silver in it and I I can't remember if there is silver in the developing solution but all that silver gets recovered and comes back to market. So it was stuck in this loop. So that demand was also supply that is sort of done now. X-rays were had had silver in them. uh that's all been, you know, so about like 85% of that uh photography demand was also supply. It came back labeled as scrap. Point of that is that that's more supply going away. That green line going down isn't just demand

going down, but it's supply going down. Jewelry is um has been a little bit static since uh 2000. And and as price goes up, jewelry and silverware will shrink because it's getting more and more expensive. Well, actually not. People buy gold jewelry. So, as silver becomes more prized, there's going to be a lot of silver necklaces and stuff. Uh, but I would expect batteries and solar panels and other uses to absolutely explode. So, this chart, there is no way for this, no direction for this chart to

go except north. >> Yeah, exactly. Beautiful. Well, I want to end here with a comparison between gold and silver. They say who owns the gold makes the rules, and this is me, [laughter] >> right? Because [clears throat] uh we're accumulating silver, and uh I'm expecting at at minimum a uh 20:1 ratio of silver to gold, but probably 10, which means you can still outperform uh gold by about a factor of seven times. That is huge, especially if gold doubles, triples, quadruples times

seven. Thanks for this presentation. It was awesome. I want to thank the audience for watching. We'll see you next time. >> Thanks, guys.