I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and here today with me is Gary Savage, president of the Smart Money Tracker newsletter. Thank you so much for being here. Great to have you back once again. >> Well, thanks for the invitation. >> Of course. I think we've got a lot to get into today, but where I thought we could begin is with gold's recent price activity. It's been a pretty exciting week, week and a half or so. We saw gold get past 5,500 per ounce, then have a pretty significant correction. Now, it looks like it's trying to make a recovery. So, I wonder if you can walk me through what was going on with the big rise, the drop, and where we're at now. >> Well, we're we're in a correction. It still remains to be seen whether this is a like a minor daily cycle correction that that may already be over. We may have printed the bottom. um a couple days ago. Uh or if if it continues and we got to go down and and make a lower low like an ABC correction, then then this might turn out to be something um that lasts a little longer, an intermediate degree correction. If that's the case, then it'll be maybe third or fourth week. and we we we would have at least two maybe three more weeks to go before the final bottom, but markets don't go straight down. So, we'll we'll have bounces and so I tend to think most of the damage is already done. Um if we do have to make a lower low, I don't know that it's going to be a huge lower low. Um, and then once it's over, we'll, you know, just like every other correction that we've had for, you know, 25, six years, once they run their course, then the next leg up begins and you hit higher highs. That's definition of a bull market. So, bull market's not done. We still got and I think we got big new highs coming once this corrections over and once we clear the sentiment. Sentiment got pretty bullish. you know, people were uh were starting to make plans to buy their island and and that's usually about the time that you got to have some kind of a correction. So, that's what's happening. Nothing out of the ordinary. >> Well, it's good to get such a calm perspective from you on what's happening right now. Maybe we could talk a little bit more about what did cause that correction in the gold price because like you said, there was a lot of exuberance and then when it was happening, people were feeling pretty nervous. So what was the reason that happened do you think? >> Well I I think there's two two reasons. One is just sentiment and you see this at actually you see it at both bottoms and tops. People you know there there's a narrative there's a a reason for why price can't go down. you know, when you're when you're high and you're going up towards the top, um Asians are buying and that's the reason that uh you know, there's shortages and that's why price can't go down or if if you're in a um correction, you know, there's the bull market's over and it's never going to go back up. There's always a narrative. And so, at some point, sentiment when you're getting close to a top, sentiment gets so bullish, there's just nobody left to buy. Everybody that's going to buy has bought. And so at that point, doesn't really matter what the fundamentals are. The sentiment will overpower the fundamentals. Even though the fundamentals haven't changed, you know, we still got shortages with silver. It's just there's nobody left to buy right now. And so then price has to correct. And then what happens is smart money starts to sell. They take profits. You start to get a little correction. At some point, people start to get um a little panicky and they want to sell. You know, their stops get hit. They want to sell before they've um lost all of their gains. That kind of exacerbates the selling. And um and I'm talking about an intermediate degree correction here. Um and [clears throat] that continues until the exact opposite happens. There's nobody left to sell. And then when that happens, the fundamentals resume. you know, you still got shortages. And so the buyers come in, the the smart money that took um profits at the top, they start buying at the bottom and and the market goes back up and it makes higher highs. Um I tend to think we're probably in the um the parabolic phase of this bull market. I I'm I know I'm a little different than a lot of other analysts. A lot of people want to say this bull market's just getting started. No, this bull market's been going on since 2001. This is a very mature bull market and we've started to go parabolic. There's usually a correction in the middle of that parabolic phase, especially for silver. There's a decent chance that this is that correction. Uh it's volatile, it's scary. people become convinced that the bull market's over and uh and it ends up being a huge bear trap and then you you know you get a bottom and then the next leg up ends up being as good or in this case I think multiples better than the first leg of the parabolic move. So, the last last two months have been, you know, amazing for especially if you were leveraged. You made life-changing gains during this last two months. Um, your complacency is going to get washed out here and a lot of people are going to, you know, assume that the bull market is over and then they're going to get stuck on the sidelines when the second phase of the parabolic move starts. And the second phase, I think, will be several times bigger than what we just went through over the last two months. So, we went from 50 to 120. I think the next leg when we're ready to break out above that 120 could take us to it's easily going to take us to 250. I mean, that's only 100%. That's easy during a parabolic move. That's almost standard during a parabolic move. But for metals that are much more volatile, I think there's a very very good chance at this point that we could go from 120 to 500. So I think the next leg is going to be a lot bigger than this first leg. And you think you made a lot of money during the first leg? You haven't seen anything yet. >> Well, and hopefully people are still in and waiting for that last part of the parabolic move. Maybe you can help me understand a little bit more where you see us in the cycle for gold and silver because it is a little bit different from everybody who's saying that this is just beginning. So this was perhaps the first parabolic move. Then there's a second and after that is that is that the end of the bull market for gold and silver in your view? >> Maybe. And I'll qualify that generally these commodity bull markets they unfold in two phases. So the first phase of the bull market was from 2001 well it double bottom. So you could say either 99 or 2001 double bottomed gold did at 255. So let's say um you pick 2001 that's where the bull market started. The first phase ended in at that top in 2011. But that wasn't the end of the secular long-term bull market. That was the end of the first phase of the bull market. And then we had a cyclical bare market fairly short um what was it about four years it ended in the fall of 2015 and at that point we started the second phase of the long-term secular bull market. So this this phase the second phase is getting pretty mature. started in 2015. We're um we're in 2026, so we're, you know, getting close to 11 years at this point. Uh and we've started to go parabolic. Uh gold when they failed to keep the suppression at 2000. You you can see what happened if you pull up a long-term chart. We we just the character of the market changed. That was because the banks were caught in a short squeeze in gold market. Um eventually that kind of bled over into the mining stocks. They had big moves. Silver was the last to break the suppression. Um I thought it was completely broken, but I guess they still got a little bit of firepower here cuz that was the second part of why this correction is happening. Some of it is just we just got, you know, way too bullish, ran out of buyers. We were due for some kind of correction anyway. And I think the banks took advantage of that and uh and coordinated a huge overnight attack that dropped silver whatever it was. I think it was almost 30% or maybe it was 30% almost overnight that allowed them to get out of their shorts because a lot of those contracts were going to stand for delivery and uh and they were going to have to buy physical silver at $120 an ounce to um to deliver. So, I I think it was some of it was just sentiment got too bullish and some of it was the banks needed to bail out, get out of those short positions. So, I think that's probably what's happening, but it's not going to hold any more than any of the other corrections held. It's just going to make the shortages even more extreme, which just means that price is going to go even higher during this final phase. So, you know, if if our final target naturally would have been $250 silver, this probably guarantees the shortages are going to be worse and and that the odds are more likely now that it's going to get to $500. >> Where does that place the gold price in your mind then? >> I think gold probably has a double from here once we break out. So, I think our top was it was close to 5600. I think maybe it even tagged 5,600. I think we're probably going to double during the last um final parabolic bubble phase of this bull market. So once once this is over with the correction, we start the next leg up and we break out above 5600, I think we're probably going to at least double from there. So I think 10,000's is almost I'm going to say it's a piece of cake. doesn't mean it's gonna be an easy ride to get there, but I think it's going to be a piece of cake and and we might even get to 11 or 1200. And now the other part of your question, I almost forgot. The other part of your question is is this over when this parabolic move tops? [snorts] Generally, I would say yes, although it might be that we just we just have a cyclical bare market. So, let's say we get a parabolic top later this year or maybe early next year, and then we get a cyclical bare market, the same thing that happened from the 2011 top to that 2015 bottom. That that was not a secular long-term bare market that lasted 15 or 20 years like the the one from 1980 to 2000. It was just a cyclical bare market. It is very possible that that might be what we would have this time is just a cyclical bare market that lasts um well the next 8year cycle low is going to be due in 2030. So so maybe it's only a three-year cyclical bare market and then we we end up having a third phase to this long-term bull market. I am open to the possibility of that. But keep in mind these parabolic moves they they tend to crash. So, we could literally we could go to $500 silver. We could crash all the way back down to 100 or even $50 silver. And then potentially we could start a third phase of the bull market that could take gold to 30 40 50,000 during that third phase. So, it's possible. I'm open to to the possibility. >> Well, and just to get an idea of your process. So, there's all of these different possibilities that could unfold. So, you're you're constantly evaluating and re-evaluating what you see in the charts to figure out what direction we're actually going to go in. >> Yeah. You know, you have to you have to be willing to change directions and you have to you can you know, you can have your expectation, but if the market tells you that your expectation is not going to play out, well, then you have to adapt. Uh longer term, I don't see any need need to adapt. I I think we're still in a bull market. uh the gold silver ratio has not gone below 30 to1 yet and I expect that this uh this attack on by the cartel it probably means it's going to go to 20 or even 15 to1 before we get our final bull market top so there's no need to adapt any of your long-term expectations at this point um shortterm maybe um we may this may turn out to be an intermediate degree correction rather than just a a minor daily cycle correction. Um, again, it's not going to change the long-term outcome. It just means that the correction may last a little longer than than first anticipated. My my anticipation was that this was going to be a daily cycle correction and would be over, you know, 8 to 10 12 days and then we'd start the next leg up. And that that may still be possible. We just have to see what happens to gold here um tomorrow and then and next week. If if gold breaks back above that 10day moving average, then we probably got our bottom here a couple days ago and and this is just a minor daily cycle correction. We'll go up, maybe hit 6,000, then we'll get that longer uh term intermediate degree correction, something that lasts four to 6 weeks maybe. Um otherwise, if this continues a little longer, then this turns into that intermediate correction. And so, you know, it just arrived a little sooner than I was anticipating, but it was going to happen anyway and and it's not going to change the long-term view, so it's nothing to panic about. >> I want to ask you a little bit more about the silver suppression angle as well, because I remember last time we spoke, you'd mentioned it's a market where that suppression has been able to hang on longer than it has in other places. So, are we are we at this point entering the last gaps of that, gasps of that? Is it is it coming to an end at this point? >> I I tend to think this will probably be the the last one. Now, they've tried multiple times during this last two months to to stop this rally. And every time they did, the buyers would come in and just kick them in the teeth, you know, and they'd lose more millions of dollars. But, um, we've reached a point where sentiment was extreme enough that we were, you know, going to run out of buyers. And I think they just jumped on the opportunity and and slammed it in the middle of the night and slammed it hard enough to where it went down to where people really started to panic and sell and they were going to there was going to be profit taking anyway. But I think people have a tendency towards recency bias and they're going to assume that since this suppression worked that the next one's going to work and they're going to be gunshy and [snorts] that's going to mean that people are going to sell way too early during that final parabolic move that they'll they'll want to sell at $150 silver, $175 silver and they'll miss the move to 500. So, don't don't let this, you know, get lodged in the back of your brain that you've got to, you know, that the cartel is going to attack again and that you got to get out early because I think it's going to you're going to miss those once in a-lifetime opportunity. That's the next phase I think is going to go much further than most people expect really. Um, I think you don't you don't really want to sell until that gold silver ratio gets down to uh oh, at least 25 to1 and we may go as low as 15 to1. >> Well, maybe I ask you a little bit more about your exit strategy when it comes to gold and silver because already when we got to the triple digit level for silver, I know a lot of people said, "All right, we got to $100. This is time for me to take at least some profits." So, how are you approaching it? Are you are you just holding until we get to those higher levels that you see coming? >> Well, I'm I'm not going to sell any of my physical until I see that gold to silver ratio at least at this point probably at least 25 to1. So, at that point, I would probably sell 75% of my um gold and my physical gold and silver holdings. Hang on to the last 25% see how much further maybe it can get down to 15 to1. Uh I would sell all leverage if we get and even if we get below 30 to one I would probably sell the at least 50% of my leveraged trades probably 75% of my leverage trades uh [snorts] and maybe just go completely unleveraged in my trading account. Now the the physical is a much bigger position position for us. Um my recommendation and pretty pretty um strict recommendation is 80% physical. Physical is that's your insurance. We can trade that other 20% in leverage. We always we always air on the side of caution. So like if we're trading options, we're always going to buy a ton of time just in case we get caught. like if this were to turn out to be an intermediate correction that's going to take several more weeks, we need a lot of time on those options. That's exactly what we did. We bought a ton of time uh just in case we get caught. So that's that's our pro protection for our leverage, but also our leverage positions are just much much smaller than our physical position. And I I expect over the long haul, we're probably going to make a lot more money in our uh physical position, our our quote unquote get-rich slow position. The the leverages are get get-rich fast position, but sometimes the leverage is our very painful position if you get caught and have to hang on for a few weeks while we work work through a correction. So that those position positions are much smaller than our physical position. So, it's more when you're deciding when to sell, it's more about the ratio than about the price. >> That That's how I'm going to judge that we're getting close to that top is that ratio. And we may also get a Dow gold ratio that's maybe down to three or 4:1. That would be something else I would look at. So, there's there's no real specific price that I I'm absolutely going to take profits at that point. If if silver's at $250, but the silver gold ratio is is only at 40, well, I'm going to keep holding. If the Dow gold ratio is 15 to1, I'm going to keep holding. So, yeah, I'm not going to pick a a set price where I'm going to buy. I'm going to be watching. Probably those two ratios would be. And then also, another thing to to watch for is just kind of pay attention to what's happening around you. If your neighbors bragging about how much money he's making in gold and silver, or the people you work with that know nothing about gold and silver are bragging about, you know, they're they're getting rich in gold and silver, that that's a bell ringing that you're pretty close to the top. And we saw that during the housing um bubble, you saw it during the tech bubble. People doing irrational things, people that had no idea what they're doing. They just know that their neighbors getting rich and they want to get rich. So that's something else to look for. Look at, you know, pay attention to those two ratios and then pay attention to what's happening in the public. If if a lot of people that, you know, have no idea what they're doing or are starting to brag about getting rich in gold and silver, maybe time to dance close to the door before that last chair gets pulled away. >> Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense. And I wonder just as we're talking about the physical metals, do you think we reach a time where it becomes hard for people to actually get their hands on the physical metal? Um, I do suspect we're going to see some shortages at the bullion dealers when we get close to that top just because there'll be um so much retail buying and and I've got some inside connections with some of the bullion dealers and and during this smash their uh their buying was two and three times higher than any other time in history. So, a lot of people are seeing this for what it is. is, you know, if you want to buy physical, the the banking cartel gave you an unbelievable gift. Use this to to load up on your physical. >> Makes sense. And I want to ask you as well about the gold and silver mining stocks. We've been talking about how you have a different approach, many people. And one thing I've been hearing recently is after that silver price move, people are saying, "Well, now it's time to rotate over to the silver stocks because they haven't had that catch-up move." How how do you approach the mining stocks? >> Well, I think they did have that catch-up move. If you look at the last two years, the mining stocks have gone crazy to the upside. uh and silver was still being was, you know, still suppressed under $50, but the miners GDX had broken out to new highs and and uh I I haven't actually checked the what the price of GDX was, but um considerably above the alt the old 2011 highs or 2010 highs, I don't remember when it was. So in my view the miners well gold was the first to break the suppression that resulted in a huge short short squeeze. The miners were second to break the suppression. They had a very nice move. I certainly think the miners are going to participate but I tend to think that silver is going to outperform. Now, there will certainly be some some junior miners that are going to go up, you know, 2,000 10,000%, but you know, what are the odds I'm going to be able to pick that or put all of my capital in that one or two juniors? Not very good. Um, you can certainly, you know, do a little bit of gold, a little bit of silver, a little bit of J or a little bit of mining stocks, but I'm probably going to focus mostly on silver. I think it's going to outperform. And if I want to use leverage, I think I want to use it in um in silver for this final um once we finish this correction for that final parabolic move because I I think silver's probably got a date with $500. >> I think that makes a lot of sense. And you know, we've been talking about how gold and silver are in this parabolic time. We're getting toward the end of this bull run, probably in the near term future or so. Are you already looking ahead to where you might want to rotate after the parabolic move in gold and silver is finished? >> Um, well, a potential spot might be Bitcoin of all things. I'm not a big Bitcoin fan, but um, you know, if if something is going up and you you can make money off of it, so be it. Um, Bitcoin has confirmed that it's in the declining phase of its four-year cycle. That usually takes about a year. So, I'm not really going to look for a bottom, final bottom in Bitcoin until maybe the end of this year, maybe beginning of next year. Same thing might happen for the stock market. It's kind of getting into that timing band where it needs to move down into the four-year cycle low. So, you know, if we get a final parabolic move in gold, like maybe this summer or later in the fall, you know, possibly in the spring of next year, although that seems like a bit stretched. Um, and then we're, you know, if at that point everybody just hates Bitcoin or everybody hates the market and they're really in love with gold and silver, well, it's probably time to sell you gold and silver and go buy one of those two things that are they're really hated because they're probably um at at about the end of their correction, their multi-year cycle correction, and it's time to switch over and um and go to one of those for a few years and let gold finish its um finish that move into the 8year cycle low, which I think I mentioned is probably due in about 2030. Maybe that would be the point at which I would start looking at gold again. But [clears throat] probably probably Bitcoin is going to be what I'm going to say. It's more volatile than the stock market. The percentage moves are bigger. So, if it's time to sell gold and silver and look for something else, I'm going to be looking at Bitcoin. Well, it does sound like that could really line up into an opportunity. And I'll just ask uh one followup on the stock market. I know that people have been watching what's going on with all the AI stock momentum. They've been really wondering if there will be a significant correction there. Is that what you see coming? Do you see a large correction or or how do you how do you see it? >> Um like I said, we are moving into the timing band for a four-year cycle low. The last one was um the co well it was 22 I guess it was was when our last um four year cycle low bottomed. So we're kind of getting into the timing band here this this fall will will be um in in that four years from the last bottom. Um and you need some time for the declining phase of the cycle. So, um, but I don't think that's going to be the end of the secular bull market. The secular bull market started in at that bottom in 2009. Um, you know, we're we're in a new technology phase. Um, the the world goes through these. The last one was from 1980 to 2000. It was the personal computer and the internet. Before that, it was electronics and plastics. Before that, it was the automobile and mass production. We're we're in a new um technology. Um AI, robotics, nanotech. Um I don't think those are mature yet. Um AI may be maybe maybe in the adolescent phase. You know, I don't think it's in the infancy phase, but I think it's in the adolescent phase. I think it has further to go. Robotics are certainly in the infancy phase. So, I think once we get that four-year cycle low, I think there's going to be another leg up uh into like maybe 2028, 2029, and then we'll see a true parabolic bubble phase in the stock market, similar to what's happening in the in the metals right now. So, um, Bitcoin and stock market are definitely potential spots to look at once once we get a top in in gold and silver. And and I I do think the stock market has further to go before we enter another one of these 10-year bull or bare markets like we had from uh 2000 to 2009. That that was a secular bare market where we were just going sideways. We'll have another one of those, but I don't think we're ready for it yet. that helps me understand, I think, where where your head is at when it comes to all of these different components. This has been really great to go through what's happening in gold and silver. I wonder if you have any final thoughts that you would leave investors with. I think it's it's great to talk to you because you're staying so calm in a time when not everybody is able to do that. >> Uh well, that that would be my advice is stay calm. This is a correction, you know, no different than every other correction we've had for years and years. It will end. Um, the next leg up will begin. And I think the next leg up is going to be even more aggressive than the last two months were. So, don't get don't get recency bias. Don't don't get overly negative. Um, this will pass even if it's an intermediate degree correction. you know, I I think most of the correction is has already occurred. So, I don't think there's a whole lot of downside risk at this point. Um, but there's a tendency for people to get very negative just like they get, you know, excessively bullish at tops, they get excessively negative at bottoms, and then they they're um extremely worried about trying to time a perfect entry. And you don't need a perfect entry in a bull market. any in you could buy literally you could buy at the exact top of the intermediate rally and still make insane amounts of money. Um even though you'd have to weather, you know, multiple weeks of correction and it'll be painful. It's it's not going to, you know, you're not going to lose money. Any long entry in a bull market is going to be a a [clears throat] winning trade. So anywhere in here, you don't have to time a perfect entry. just at some point, you know, take the leap, pull the trigger. If if you're a little early, so be it. You're probably close enough. And the bull market will eventually turn and go back up and it will rescue uh any any long entry right now, even if it's not a perfect entry and not the not the exact bottom. So, uh you get ready to pull the trigger and uh and then just be patient. able is will do its thing and you're going to make lots of money in the in the months weeks and months ahead. >> Well, very very reassuring note to end on. So, thank you so much for coming on to share your perspective. This was really helpful for me. >> Well, thanks for having me back. >> Of course. And once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and this is Gary Savage. Thank you for watching. [music] If you like this video, make sure you hit the like button and subscribe to our channel. We'd also love to hear your thoughts, so leave us a comment below.