11 of 12 this is an extremely Accurate Way of uh detecting is there a recession happening or not and uh what you see here is that it's saying yes there is a recession either about to happen it's already happening or it's just about over [Music] with well the Federal Reserve has brought us in for a soft landing and there will be no recession or could we already be in one let's let's take a look at the data uh this is the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is the Blue Line the yield on the uh 10-year US Treasury is
the red line and the federal funds effective rate so they've got a target range and they've got the effective range where it ends up at uh which is pretty close it it's generally stays within their band that they're uh trying to Target but uh the Federal Reserve fed funds effective rate and so this goes all the way back to 1954 uh with the FED funds rate and I just want to show you here that whenever the green line is above the red line uh that is called an inversion so that's
when uh the um this isn't the 2-year and the 10e inversion this is a uh uh fed funds and 10-year uh yield inversion but it generally does a pretty good job of um of predicting recessions uh and you know it's got a long history of this so it gets inverted the green line above the red we got a recession green line above the red we got a recession green line above the red we got a recession green line above the red we've got a recession uh here it was a little bit early green line above the
red it took about uh a year and a half two years before the recession set in here it was uh early again but you know about a a year year and a half before the recession started uh here it was early year year and a half when it predicted and it even predicted the recession uh during the lockdowns somehow that that was pretty amazing that all these different factors predicted that there was going to be something that ended up happening as a cause of the walkdowns but that recession so uh the big impact here is the change
and the speed of the change of the rise in the FED funds rate uh and the how bonds have been going you know they bottomed in March of 2020 and they've been going up since so this is the 10-year uh treasury going up and how that affect Ed the 30-year mortgage and uh this mortgage rates are extremely important especially in the commercial uh real estate industry where they're making all of these enormous uh building Office Buildings unprofitable because the value of an office building is based by the cash flow which is based
on the occupancy rate and so uh if the occupancy rate goes down uh then and you know so this makes it very hard to refinance those Office Buildings and the refinancing you know a lot of it is coming due now so let's move on to the inversions themselves so here we have the 10year minus the two-year that's the one most often referred to uh the 10year minus the three-month Treasury and the 10-year minus the FED funds rate and uh this goes back to 1961 uh not all of the data that's just
the uh tenure and the FED funds rate you see see one false flag there but it's a been a very good predictor of coming recessions uh and then the 10-year minus the two the blue line is the one that is most often referred to uh and it has also been an excellent predictor of coming recessions and it's been more than a year now that this has been predicting uh that a recession was coming but very often this is early uh so uh another predictor uh this is a very interesting chart although there's I
have a big problem with it uh you know I'm pretty darn good at reading charts if you don't think so go to ggsrp4 are online only and they're free everybody can look at it but it's a a uh primer on how to read charts and uh one of the things about this chart you know this is bankruptcy filings surge to dangerous levels and yes we've been up at this level uh at the to onset of the 2008 uh Great Recession that led into the 2009 uh you know uh market crash the global financial crisis of 2008 the coid
pandemic and here we are back up at these levels but what is this level it's a level of 8 and A2 it's a 4-week moving average of US Bank Rey filings so does does that mean that there's 8 and a half filings in the last four weeks well that's sort of what it suggests it doesn't you know there's nothing in the legend here it's alarming regardless but is this 8 and a half% of all the publicly listed companies what is it I don't know it's an alarming graph I wish they would have said what this graph
truly is what it represents I want to know what is this scale what is it measuring this isn't the line is a 4-week moving average of whatever it is measuring but it doesn't tell us what it's measuring however it's at alarming levels that says that right now some like a a bad recession should be setting in uh you know um my farm manager I was up at the farm uh last weekend and uh I was up at the farm back in February at my birthday uh my farm manager came into town yest yesterday for uh you know
something that he had to do in San Juan and so we had a meeting and we went to a restaurant last night uh at about 5:30 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. this beautiful rooftop lounge and I don't know if you're noticing business slowing down uh discretionary spending slowing down where you live but I am noticing it start to happen here this is a beautiful rooftop Lounge on the top of a hotel and this is one of what what is considered the better restaurants in town and um uh this rooftop Lounge is uh you know
granted this was a weekday and so but normally on a weekday this can fit maybe uh 60 or 80 people in this rooftop Lounge possibly more and on a a weekend uh it may usually be packed but I don't believe it is and then uh uh this uh weekday where I was there this was actually just yesterday the video I'm making now is going to be released tomorrow uh so this is on Wednesday I'm making this this was a Tuesday the uh traffic uh from uh this this place that would normally have 20 30 40 people in it uh the total
occupancy of this restaurant from 5:30 to 7:30 was to me and and my Farm manager Nicola and I felt so bad for them I want to show you uh this this is the uh US Department of Labor uh wage and hourly Division and uh the way they do this minimum wages for tipped employees so this includes the the uh service sector like you know waiters and bartenders and so on and so federally $7.25 is the minimum wage but they have a special minimum wage they calculate that the amount of tips that waiters and waitresses and bartenders get is about
$512 per hour is the guess that the IRS is making and so the minimum wage that a business can pay them is $2.13 per hour so a lot of people don't know that weight staff gets really cheap you know I'm not for minimum wage minimum wage is zero Z because a business does not have to hire you that's the true minimum wage nothing per hour uh you you push minimum wage up too high and that is what you get is a business will decide to automate to close to just eliminate that job somehow if it's not a profitable job for the
business every job must generate a profit for the business or the business must die that's the the cruel reality of economics uh but uh the definition of a tipped employee is somebody making more than $30 in tips uh per month that's federally now I want to skip down to Puerto Rico because that applies to this restaurant it's right at the bottom of this thing but in Puerto Rico the minimum wage is 950 per hour they calculate that $737 of that uh if if it's a a uh waiter or bartender uh that $7.3 per hour is
coming in his tips so the business can pay you $23 cents per hour so that's what most waiters waitresses and bartenders are being paid on their paycheck uh in Puerto Rico and we were the only two people there we had a couple of hamburgers and a few beers and the bill was $100 for a couple of hamburgers and beers and uh and so I I put $20 uh of tip on the bill and then I was walking out and I saw that there were that we were the only people there over that 2hour period so basically they made
they each made $426 over that 2hour period where we were there and I felt so sorry for them I had handed them another $10 on top of the $20 I had already tipped on this outrageously expensive $100 pair of hamburgers and uh so business there should have been at least 20 or 30 people up there and there were two and so I'm starting to see this especially like midweek uh restaurants and so on starting to slow down what is it like in your area right now especially pay attention to like midweek stuff and so
uh you know secretary treasury secretary Janet Yellen tries to calm markets amid historic us Bond collapse so here's Market Insider calling it a US Bond collapse and further down in this article it says that since March of 2020 that's when uh Bond uh yields uh reached their minimum uh and then started rising and when they rise the bond prices fall so if you had so this says that the 30-year bond is down 53 % according to Bloomberg now the inverse of if if you bought a bond for a hundred bucks and it
went down by 53% that means it's it's worth you can sell it for $47 ah but that is the price what is the value looking at this you have to say you know I I invested $100 in March of 2020 I could have bought $100 worth of March 2020 goods and services how many goods and services can I buy with those dollars today so if you go to the CPI calculator and you go from March 2020 to August of 2023 $100 put into bonds then would requ you it it would require $119 to purchase the same amount of stuff today so we've had a 19 %
inflation since the bottoming of the bond market the bottoming in yields which was the peak in price and now things are falling so of this going back to this 53% crash uh if you have $100 and it crashes by 53% that means you've got $47 left now we want to deflate this by the the amount of inflation to see what the value is left in bonds so instead of going from March of 2020 to August of 2023 I'm going to deflate it going backwards from from today August of 2023 they don't have the September data in
yet uh to back to March of 2020 and that requires a 16% deflating it by 16% uh to figure out what the actual purchasing power is and what you end up with is you know this $84 that's that's uh left out of the 100 um you end up with of 84% of 47 is $39.48 worth of purchasing power uh so that is how much so the bonds the 30-year bond has crashed by more than 60% already our we in a recession so why does this bond market collapse matter because the bond market is the largest market on Earth and absolutely dwarfs
the stock markets that's the reason it matters hi I just wanted to take a moment and thank you for subscribing and mention that if you'd like to help our Channel please consider my company goldsilver.com the next time you buy precious metals we're one of the most trusted names in the industry our prices are Sharp delivery is fast and we have an insiders program where you find out exactly what I'm doing with my own Investments thanks for making goldsilver.com your dealer and now back
to the video this is something else that I look at uh in my first book guide to investing in gold and silver uh I have some updates on things in the 2015 Edition and one of the things that I identified near the end of the book I call it the dangerous fog and fog stands for financialization of government and what I noticed here was that uh there used to be no correlation between the value of the stock market I used the Wilshire 5000 uh total Market full cap index uh and uh I noticed that the tax
revenues brought in by the government look looked like the stock market and I put these things on the same chart and lo and behold when the stock market collapses now so do tax revenues there used to be no correlation before the year 2000 this is only a phenomenon of this century and so uh here are federal government current tax receipts I'm going to raise this so my eyes are closer to looking at the camera when I'm looking in the chart uh and uh what we see here is this collapse with the
NASDAQ crash in 2000 the collapse with the global financial crisis of 2008 this is a a collapse of tax revenues and then we have this huge collapse going on today now I'm going to uh modify this graph a bit by going from billions of dollars to percent change from a year ago so this is either the growth or this the shrinkage of tax revenues in the United States and here is what is you know know I'm going to make this even easier to read by oh it's on semiannual this Smooths the data a
little bit and makes it just a little easier to read so this goes back to 1948 and as you can see it goes negative and we have a recession and then it goes negative again in 1953 and we have a recession it goes negative again in 1957 we have a recession it goes negative again in 1961 uh it that that's at the end of the recession but it has very very accurately pointed out uh recessions either uh just before they happen in the middle of when they're happening or just about when they're over with uh with
only one and two false flags and one where it did not point out or predict the recession but out of uh 12 recessions it correctly flagged uh uh 11 of 12 recessions with two two extra false flags and you know not predicting that one so 11 of 12 this is an extremely Accurate Way of uh detecting is there a recession happening or not and uh what you see here is that it's saying yes there is a recession either about to happen it's already happening or it's just about over with and recessions are trailing in indicators
it's something you don't find out until 6 months to a year after it happened is they say oh we've been in a recession for the last 6 months or the last year and so uh um you know if you take a look at my video from three weeks ago or two weeks ago I'm sorry all hell is breaking loose uh I show the national debt clock and normally all the figures on it are rolling over forward they're getting higher and higher and higher but every year they roll over at faster and faster rates until it's just absolutely
blinding but now there's stuff increasing at the fastest rate ever while other things like the currency Supply and tax revenues credit card debt all of this stuff is going backwards at these amazing rates so there's stuff collapsing at the same time that debt is expanding and it is like our politicians Now sort of sense that the endgame must be near so they've got nothing to lose they're just going to spend their they're going to buy votes by spending us into Oblivion and that leads to not
just a market CRA collapse but the potential of a currency crisis and like total Financial uh catastrophe a real you know I don't know now this is from Zero Hedge and I wish they would list their Source because I'm they say we've added 513 billion in total debt over the past 18 days so total debt the best way to measure this would be to go to the treasury and um look at the treasury auctions and the treasuries that have been retired uh and you know uh take the net difference between the new treasuries
that we're adding and the old treasuries that are uh now uh paid off and nothing to worry about they're they're closed we've retired them uh but so I'd love to know where they got the their data but this is probably uh part of it we've canceled 127 billion dollars in student debt for nearly 3.6 million Americans now this sounds good but did Joe Biden have $127 billion that he could pass out was this his personal gift to the United States who actually pays for this 127 billion going to 3.6 million people uh
now it sounds real generous and this probably bought 3.6 million votes uh by doing this however who pays for this who is it that actually foots the bill where well there are if there's 330 million people in the United States but there's only about 127 million taxpayers and as you know the government is they they the government's two big jobs are wealth redist redistribution and uh let me see there was a quote I can't remember who this is from but somebody just sent this to me yest yesterday about uh him being tired
of old men sitting around in aircond conditioned offices in Washington DC planning Wars for young men to die in and so the government's job is to uh take our wealth from us if you're working and redistribute it to other people and once it's theirs they think that once they've taken it from us they think it is theirs it's it's their Birthright to just spend this on whatever they think is important and so so here the average taxpayer has paid $11,000 uh for the education of these
other 3.6 million people $1,000 each uh uh per taxpayer and it's not evenly distributed some people are paying a buck some people are paying $100,000 or a million dollar uh to educ and and you know education is a good thing I'm not arguing against that I'm arguing against the redistribution and uh these people that took on this student debt made a promise and they had a responsibility now there have been two great economists during my lifetime only two that I can point to and say that man is a truly great
Economist and one of them is Thomas he's the only great living Economist in my opinion you cannot subsidize irres irresponsible responsibility and expect people to become more responsible he's not just uh one of the world's great economists he is also this great Observer there is one thing the the two great economists are Thomas soul and Milton Friedman one of the things about them is they are men of very clear Vision they can look at a big picture of the whole society and see that uh This
plus this equals this they've got this very very clear Vision where they can connect the dots and add things up uh this is a great quote the interviewer says uh if you abolish the Federal Reserve what do you uh replace it with and Thomas Soul says when you remove a cancer what do you replace it with nothing you just let the free market work so the thing to pay attention with all of this massive deficit spending you know we're doing these massive spending increases at a time when Revenue are
falling and they're not done falling yet as we truly enter a recession tax revenues fall even further GDP and then if it turns into a crisis it falls even further and their thinking is that the only way to resolve this the only way to get us out of it is to spend more of what you don't have and so I want to leave you with this amazing uh uh little lecture that's only 36 second seconds long by Milton fredman one of the two great economists of my lifetime and I want to thank Peter Spina for uh
pointing this out to everybody so here is Milton fredman keep your eye on one thing and one thing only how much government is spending because that's the true tax every budget is balanced there is no such thing as an unbalanced federal budget you're paying for it if you're not paying for it through it in the in the form of explicit taxes you're paying for it indirectly in the form of inflation or in the form of borrowing the thing you should keep your eye on is what government spends and the real
problem is to hold down government spending as a fraction of our income and if you do that you can stop worrying about the debt okay so what he's saying here is that government spending is what causes us to sink or swim and the more government spends uh the more it's tying weight around your ankles while you are trying to keep your head above water I want to thank you for watching please like And subscribe and uh you know if you want to support this channel consider buying from goldsilver.com if
you make a decision to buy any gold or silver thank you for watching hi I just wanted to tell you about gold Silver's 111 oce silver giveaway where you can win win win 111 one 1 oz silver bar one 10 oz silver bar and one 100 oz silver bar so enter today and win
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